I try to compare stats/scouting. Ponder’s numbers have not been impressive, however he has shown flashes of great ability. It will be interesting to see how his accuracy imporoves from all the hard work her has (reportedly) been doing. That is where the improvement will/can/should come.

I am cautiously optomistic on Ponder.

Wienke tossed all those INTs versus NC State. It sticks out in my mind as the worse QB performance that I ever watched in FSU history. It was as if he had a rare for of dyslexia that reversed the colors of the uniforms he saw, and he thought the DBs were open WRs for him to throw the ball to. After the game was over, I walked down to either the Chic-fil-a or Pizza Hut to grab a bite, and the mood on campus was the closest thing I have ever seen to a sudden death or injury. Nobody even made eye contact while walking, much less talked to each other. In the end the guy turned into a pretty good QB.

I think it is a bit unfair to compare Ponder, stat to stat, with other FSU QBs at the current time. Because people seem to take the other players’ best years and stick them against Ponder’s first. It may be a better comparison to look at the first years they started with the team. Even then Ponder is at a disadvantage. Not only has ACC football improved over the years, but our talent level has dropped and UF is currently going through its Golden Age of Football. With the exception of Ward, who would crush the ACC with his dual threat ability much worse than Wilson did last year, I don’t know if any FSU QB could have excelled if they were first time starters last year.

I don’t know if Ponder can get us to 10 wins this year, but I expect him to be better. A better O-line and the running game being the focus will open up space for the passing game. As long as he can cut down on the INTs without becoming completely conservative Ponder should be fine. He will probably never be an All-TIme Great, but it has been so long we don’t expect one to line up for us anymore. He should make a BCS Bowl before his time in Tally us up though.

that there hasn’t been a question about who will be the starter.

Now, this could change if Ponder really sucks the first three games and of course, everyone will be calling for Manual to save us.

But I do think that fans are optimistic because there isn’t a question, there isn’t a realistic competition at the spot. We’re not debating racial nonsense (save WC, they love talking the race card over there). So, even if his Sophomore stats aren’t up to par with Charlie Ward and Chris Weinke’s senior years, we’re content with the QB spot and more concerned about the secondary and the linebackers.

but if you watched the games, you saw flashes of what we all hope he will be, very mobile with weapons around him to win, lets not forget last year was his first as a starter, and basically unexpected at that with weatherford as a senior, but now he has had a full spring as a starter under his belt and is about to have a full slate of 2-a-days as a starter, so to think he wont improve off last year is just very pessimistic….and lets not forget jimbo knows what hes doing….hes not gonna let a inadequate player run his offense.

He’s a very smart guy with a lot of toughness and good athletic ability. Those tools make me optimistic in some ways. The line will have to improve in pass pro for him to improve his stats. I think the running game can help open up the passing game and create some big plays for him in our offense, but I think the problem with this year will be the wide receivers. I really think we’ll see a lot of missed routes and incompletions/interceptions created by receiver’s mistakes rather than Ponder’s. I don’t see much change in his passing numbers happening this year, and I think Jimbo will run him less because of how banged up he was by the end of last year.

I think you are way off on the ACC defenses. FSU’s defense was average last year in the ACC. The ACC produced more NFL defenders than any other conference over the last 5 years and had many this past season as well. Additionally, the advanced metrics like FEI show that the ACC’s defenses are exceptional, having 5 in the top 15. It’s widely accepted that the ACC is the best and most defensive conference, with multiple NFL defensive guys coaching in the league.

Also, Ponder had 12 picks, not 13. The one against Colorado was a scorer’s error. Ponder threw a ball, which was batted down, he caught it, and ran with it, then fumbled. The scorer put it as an interception.

Ponder played the hardest schedule FSU has ever played.

I think you should compare the ACC games to the ACC games.

I don’t think meaningful analysis can be made between the old teams and now. FSU beat up on bad teams in the 80’s and 90’s. The ’Noles played good teams for cred and a lot of very bad teams.

We need to remove plays that came in garbage time.

When looking at the rushing stats, we need to look at running plays only, without sacks.

I don’t like the use of total yards because I think it’s misleading.

Our offensive line last year, in my opinion was “Above average pass blocking and brutal pass blocking.” We were not an above average overall line in my opinion. Teams consistently beat us to death without having to blitz.

Can’t get the chart in, but here’s the scoop. (Also adjusted Ponder’s INTs to 12). Ponder still comes out next to last on QBSPP, with only Busby 2006 scoring worse. Ponder comes out 7th out of 9 on pass efficiency, 8th in Tot. Off per game, and last in YPP.
(Included: Willis 89, Weldon 91, Ward 92, Kanell 94, Busby 96, Weinke 98, Rix 01, Weatherford 05 and Ponder 08.)

I will start by saying Christian needs to be more accurate.

How does a quarterback become more accurate? Well you need a freshman line mostly that run blocked pretty well to provide better pass protection and I believe they will. Why because Trickett has been cap whipping for awhile since last year.

You need a quarterback with a year of experience under his belt and that = Ponder.

The only former FSU quarterbacks who could have done any better than Ponder last year might be Charlie Ward and Casey Weldon and maybe Rix. Why? because they are mobile. Behind our pass blocking last year I think Weinke, Peter Tom Willis, Kannell, Busby and the list goes on would have been murdered because they can’t move and not being able to move playing behind freshman who were vastly outweighed will get you killed.

The only real question is will the offensive line be able to protect Ponder this year? I think they can, lord I hope they can and Trickett is my crutch here. If anybody can have an oline ready to play it is him.

There won’t be as much pressure on Ponder to carry the team this year. I believe he is going to have a lot of fun watching the running game open up and it will happen with much better running backs suited to zone blocking than we had last year.

This will in turn force teams to move up into the box and open up passing routes for Ponder to exploit. When you can run you stay on the field and tire a defense, they get winded, they lose heart and a quarterback exploits them. I firmly believe this will be more the case this season.

Honestly nobody has seen enough of Ponder behind a line that actually pass blocks to judge him fairly. I will say he is one of the most intelligent quarterbacks we have had here. He has a strong arm and (JIMBO FISHER IS VERY HIGH ON HIM) He is not wrong too often.

Ponder is the best running quarterback here since Charlie ward. He had almost the number of yards on the ground as Jermaine Thomas did.

In the past I recall vividly and I have said this before, watching Ward, Peter Tom Willis and Busby and saying these guys are never going to be FSU quarterbacks. They don’t fit the mold. How wrong I was so I am not going to say that about Ponder at this point.

I will say again though Christian needs to be more accurate with the touch pass and the long ball.

Yes they are? And if this season blows up then hey I will take my lumps. I may never be able to comment again here without derision but I don’t see that happening.

A prophet is never recognized in his own house! LOL

It seems like yesterday Doc that Charlie Ward was transitioning from punter to QB. I remember him throwing so many pics i was yelling to get him out. How many did he have in his first couple of games? Ponder just needs a chance.With some blocking he will be a winner. As a running threat defenses will have to load the box. With protection if he stays in the pocket and our WR’s step up he will be fine.

when Ponder is ranked lower than Weatherford.

I don’t recall one second of last season when I said to myself “man, I wish they’d put Weattherford in for Ponder.” : )

I kept asking people around me where did the get this i####### from. I was also saying maybe Weinke should have stuck with baseball his first year. I felt the tackle who busted up Kendra running him down from behind should be benched and never play another down.

Until he decided he should be starting.

I realize it is like Parcels say, you are what your record says you are.

I am simply trying to show why the statistics are what they are. The philosopher already knows what the mathematician seeks to prove.

Kindly no one take offense as my sense of humor is at times overly abundant especially with the season becoming near.

was when Rix had to start as a Freshman. Remember the days when underclassmen never started? I think that’s an important thing. The 2 things Rix had going against him was not being given the time to develop and learn from the sideline, and the horrible play calling of Jeff Bowden. Had he had a decent OC, and started as a JR, he would probably have been the best QB we ever had. This is what I didn’t like about Ponder starting last year. Weatherford performed pretty well considering as a JR and there was NO reason not to let him start his senior year and give Ponder another year to develop. Hopefully we’re back on track now, and Ponder will do fine the next 2 years and Manuel will step in and be an amazing QB afterward

Rix could have been much better with guidance.

On the other hand last year was Christian’s 3rd year on campus and Tebow won the heisman his second year at Florida.

Tebow never started out being coached by a Jeff Bowden and had an offensive line protecting him.

I think it depends on our OLine giving him time to throw.

Really great write up, though. Since these are taking the best years of FSU’s best QB’s, and only Ponder’s first year, I’d love to see some stats showing how the above QBs improved during their time as a starter. Obviously, some only played 1 or 2 years, but I think this will be a better understanding of how Ponder compares, especially after his second year at the helms.

I started to cry when I began to read this. THERE IS NO HOPE. Haha. Then I decided to do just a little digging. Take a look at Colt McCoy. In 2007 he threw 22 TD’s and had 18 pics. What did the 2007 Horns have in common with the 2008 Noles? A very young Oline. Granted McCoy’s passer rating, and all other stats for that matter (except rushing), were still considerably higher than Ponder’s 08 season, but after just one year of cohesion and practice by the Texas Oline, there was an amazing improvement. Colt proceeded to throw for 34 Td’s and just 8 pics in 08. That is quite a turn around. Now, will we see Ponder throw half as many pics and 15-20 more TDs? Uhhh, probably not going to happen. But I think it is reasonable to expect better things from Wonder, I mean Ponder. He has the smarts and the athletic ability to be a more complete passer.

Note: I only looked at the Texas Oline and Colt maybe had many more receiving weapons around him in 08. That is for one of the better football analysts here to pick up and roll with.

Ponder has huge upside….
I really think this kid is going to be great this year.
 - We already know he’s smart
 - He’s fast on his feet
 - This is no longer his first rodeo
 - The line protecting him will be better
 - The running game will be improved making the defense play more men in the box and giving our wr’s more room to get open

I think its also somewhat unfair comparing him to some of the best all time qb’s at FSU.
Those teams in the past (minus the Rix and Weatherford comparisons) gelled. They just knew they were going to win.
The teams Ponders been on so far are hoping to win. Also I think the league in general has become tougher. I know those are kind of lame excuses but they definately have an effect.
I think this kid is going to be a leader and I think his team mates believe in him which is huge.

Remember that Ponder was hurt most of the year last season and he’s a tough guy so he played through (knowing Drew was behind him, eww!). He’ll be healthy this year and that experience is going to pay dividends.

Plus the competition with EJ back there will force him to step up or be sat down.

Ponder struggled against zone defenses bad last year throwing the ball. He needs to be able to learn to read a zone D. I’m sure Mickey doesn’t show him too much of that in practice so that could be a problem.

question 1) HELL YA ITS FSU AND DOWN TO A WEEK BEFORE FALL BALL
            OK my real anwser is yes but because Im a football fan more or less. I want to see if the team has improved and is still getting better. I want to see us win at least one more game than last year and a good bowl (THE OB BABY)

  2)Ponder will be better at passing this year. I truely think you need to look at the O-line. you want to look at something try looking at the sakes the past noles got vs ponders Im guessing he got saked more. I know he could throw it away but sometimes he never had the time. Also Ponder was the man last year on 3rd and long last year mostly because he wanted to make the first down unlike Weatherford.

 3) In the ACC teams dont drop b-ball scores in games like the big 12. and we did kinda good last year in our OOC games. other than UF but they smash everyone.

  4)Jimbo what cant he do. The guy calls the plays and he sets people up. He calls plays that play to our Str. and the opp. weeknesses. UFS drops 8 in the box to stop the runs and play the others back we run the bubble it they man up beat them long take the extra guy out the box smash them in the mouth. Thats what we are going to try to make everyone else do play our ball not theres.

Ponder might not get us to an NC but you only look at the passing of him why not the running part. We wont the mimai game on his lags I thought

I mean, just saying.

osceolafan85 brought this up. Palmer started his first full year as a RS SO after starting about half the games as a FR and a medical RS as a SO (so he’s unlike Ponder in that respect). In 2000 as a RS SO, his QBSPP was only 1.98, not much better than Ponder’s 1.7. His YPP was 6.1, just a bit better than Ponder’s 5.5. We all know how Palmer’s story turned out.

Now obviously he plays Big 12 football (1/3RD the amount of 1st round defensive draft choices as the ACC), but they are similar stylistically.

I’ve been looking for a good comparison — I checked out Robinson’s numbers, and they are far superior to Ponder’s. I suppose some of that can be attributed to bad defenses. His QBSPP as a SO was 4.19 (Ponder 1.7). His ypp was 7.8 (Ponder 5.5), with 827 rush yards! His 2666 tot yds is close to Ponder’s 2429.

Ponder will get better the WR/TE/RB will get better when the o-line gets better. Ponder has great legs on him and can throw a good ball. I think he throws better however on the run. I love the moving pocket and think we should keep it in the playbooks. I think Jimbo needs to get some good trick plays. I want to run a few before we play WF only to make them play more honest. That was an evil thing they did last year. I respect it but hate it.

Did anyone see evidence this spring if he curbed this at all? I know we weren’t the best at pass blocking last year but he even admitted this was a bad habit since his high school days.