FanPost

1993 vs. 1999 NFL starts


This post continues the debate started by FrankDNole here.  My research may not be as thorough as the experts at TN, but here's what I've come up with:

NFL Starts:

1993 Roster -- 1,464

1999 Roster -- 1,402

How did I come up with these?

First, I simply counted the number of starts according to NFL.com.  I used this site for year-by-year FSU rosters.  Here are the numbers (let me know who I missed):

NFL Starters from 1993 Roster
(Sorry about the formatting -- couldn't figure out how to insert tables properly.)

Derrick Brooks   221
Scott Bentley*     1
Peter Boulware  102
Devin Bush   71
Andre Cooper  1
Henri Crockett   87
Zack Crockett  58
Warrick Dunn   154
Omar Ellison   1
William Floyd  79
Corey Fuller   127
E.G. Green  4
Tra Thomas   165
Lonnie Johnson  66
Danny Kanell   24
Kevin Long 35
Toddrick McIntosh   1
James Roberson 21
Corey Sawyer 12
Clay Shiver 25
Greg Spires 94
Tamarick Vanover 6
Reinard Wilson 23
TOTAL 1378
AVG. 59.91304

(*For kickers, starts aren't listed on NFL.com, so I just considered them the starter unless there was some reason to think they weren't.  Bentley seems to have started only one game, but I think Janikowski has been the "starting" kicker his whole time in Oakland, with the exception of a few games.)

After counting the starts, I added projected starts for currently active players -- Dunn and Brooks, in this case:

Brooks  (3 more years x 16 avg. starts per year)
Dunn  (3 more years x 12.8 avg. starts per year)   

Derrick Brooks +48
Warrick Dunn +38
TOTAL PROJECTED +86

Is this too generous for Brooks and Dunn?  Maybe.  But this makes a new projected total of 1,464 NFL starts.  I don't think anyone else from the '93 squad is currently active.

GRAND TOTAL for 1993 roster: 1,464 NFL starts

And now the 1999 team:

NFL Starters from 1999 Roster

Brian Allen 9
Anquan Boldin 77
Tay Cody 11
Laveranues Coles 125
Darnell Dockett 79
Char-ron Dorsey 3
Ron Dugans 13
Mario Edwards 50
Talman Gardner 2
Derrick Gibson 32
Chris Hope 75
Alonzo Jackson 1
Sebastian Janikowski 141
Snoop Minnis 11
Travis Minor 4
Tommy Polley 64
Corey Simon 91
Peter Warrick 60
Chris Weinke 20
TOTAL 868
AVG. 45.68421


Add projected starts for currently active players:

Anquan Boldin +128
Laveranues Coles +69
Darnell Dockett +158
Chris Hope +85
Sebastian Janikowski +94
TOTAL PROJECTED +534

I projected a 15 year career x their average # of starts per year so far.  I thought this was generous.  This is by far the most subjective part of my analysis.  Feel free to offer better projections.  I also could be wrong about who is currently active.  My information is almost strictly from NFL.com.

GRAND TOTAL for 1999 roster:  1,402 NFL starts

Conclusions:  I was surprised by how close the numbers are.  One interesting thing to note is that once the numbers are adjusted for projected starts, the avg. # of starts per player is higher for the 1999 roster (only counting those who actually started in the NFL):

1993  Adjusted  
Derrick Brooks   269
Scott Bentley  1
Peter Boulware  102
Devin Bush   71
Andre Cooper  1
Henri Crockett   87
Zack Crockett  58
Warrick Dunn   192
Omar Ellison   1
William Floyd  79
Corey Fuller   127
E.G. Green  4
Tra Thomas   165
Lonnie Johnson  66
Danny Kanell   24
Kevin Long 35
Toddrick McIntosh   1
James Roberson 21
Corey Sawyer 12
Clay Shiver 25
Greg Spires 94
Tamarick Vanover 6
Reinard Wilson 23
TOTAL 1464
AVG. 63.65217
   
1999 Adjusted  
Brian Allen 9
Anquan Boldin 205
Tay Cody 11
Laveranues Coles 194
Darnell Dockett 237
Char-ron Dorsey 3
Ron Dugans 13
Mario Edwards 50
Talman Gardner 2
Derrick Gibson 32
Chris Hope 160
Alonzo Jackson 1
Sebastian Janikowski 235
Snoop Minnis 11
Travis Minor 4
Tommy Polley 64
Corey Simon 91
Peter Warrick 60
Chris Weinke 20
TOTAL 1402
AVG. 73.78947

Perhaps this is a point in favor of the 1999 team.  A point against the 1999 squad is that a kicker is responsible for 16.7% of their starts.  But in the end, given the margin of error in my projections, the comparison does not give us a clear winner.  I suppose what the data tell us is that the two teams were incredibly close talent-wise. 

Here are a few names you might think are missing (played in the NFL, but never started a game):
1993 -- Clifton Abraham, Sean Jackson, Kevin Knox, Kez McCorvey, Julian Pittman.
1999 -- Sean Key, Nick Maddox, Kendyll Pope, Tarlos Thomas. 

I'll leave further analysis of the data to others . . . 

Some questions:
* Did I miss any Seminoles from these rosters who started in the NFL?
* How do these NFL start totals stack up to other schools? (Miami, USC, etc.)
* What is the offense/defense breakdown for each squad?

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