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For Entertainment Purposes Only- Week 1: 09/01- 09/07

Welcome to another edition of For Entertainment Purposes Only!  Last year, this rather informal column went 251-190 (57%) +41.0 That's 251 wins and 190 losses for a winning percentage of 57%.  If you were wagering $100 fake dollars per game, you would have netted $4100 at season's end.  But since these are fake wagers, we refer to our wager amount as "units."  First though, a disclaimer: 

I want to emphasize that we don't endorse gambling at this site, and anything on here is for entertainment purposes only.  Always check with your local, state, or federal laws to determine the legality of wagering.

First we discussed some wagers for conference and division winners.  Since then, the odds on Clemson have gone from +1000 to +300, and Ole Miss went from +350 to +200.  No odds went against our decisions.  

Then we went over season win totals.  Vegas set the number, we called it over or under!

Today we will look at the games for week 1 and find some choice fake wagers.  

Star-divide

All fake wagers are for 1 unit each.  I typically do not give long rambling discussions.  I wager for value.  I do not always believe that the underdog will win the game, but rather that the underdog will stay within the number.

If you want to discuss a game I have listed, or any game, just ask!

I play a lot of volume, so adjust your wager size downward!  Do not wage rmore than 1% of your fictituous bankroll per game.  Do not arbitrarily adjust your unit size.  

These are week 1 openers and they have and will move and change a lot before game time.  That is the nature of the beast.  Find your best number.  Don't chase over key numbers.

 

  • North Carolina State -3 over So Carolina  I discussed this game here.  Since then, NCST lost linebacker Nate Irving.
  • Wisconsin -15.5 over Northern Illinois.  NIU not on par with Wisky
  • Toledo/ Purdue Under 52    I do not trust Purdue's offense at all.
  • Utah State +22  this game means more to Utah State and Utah should be rusty.
  • Notre Dame -12.5    I actually like Nevada here but this lins should climb a bit and if it gets to 17 I will take Nevada and play for the middle.
  • North Texas +21 Too many in the opener.
  • Ohio +4.5  Uconn is probably not better than Ohio early in the year.  
  • Louisiana Tech -13.  laying points with Auburn is scary, but this coaching staff will run the score up given the opportunity.
  • Oklahoma -21  BYU's defense is very bad and OU should cover if they take care of business early.
  • Illinois -4  Illinois has much better athletes and I expect Mizzouri to take a step back this year.
  • San Jose State +35.5  There is no way USC is focused for this game as Ohio State looms large.  
  • Idaho +6  Idaho is likely the better team.
  • Georgia +6  Georgia returns more starters than OKST.  They are a better team now and were a better team last year and are more talented than OKST.  OKST's defense is seriously bad.  And Georgia did this while also dealing with 44 starts lost to injury.  Do not overlook UGA this year.  They are loaded with guys you have not heard of yet.
  • UAB -3    Rice lost a ton and I expect UAB to win by 10+
  • Texas A&M -10  New Mexico just isn't a good team and A&M will score points.
  • Bama/ VTech Under 37.5    Both defenses are excellent and both offenses could struggle.
  • Wake Forest -1  Wake has an experienced OLine and a 4-year starter at QB.  Baylor got lucky last year and the Big 12 really made their offense look better than it was.
  • FSU/ Miami over 48.5  Both defenses struggled last year and both offenses return almost everyone.
  • Clemson -19.5  This is the home opener for a team needing to make a big impression.  Death valley at night.

So, Current Wagers for the season are:

Clemson to win the ACC +1000 
VTech to win the Coastal +175 
Nebraska to win the Big 12 North +175 
Ole Miss to win the West: +350 
Rutgers to win the Big East +500

Maryland Terrapins under 6 wins at -165
Texas Over 10 wins at -155
Rutgers over 8 wins at -200
Illinois over 7 1/2 wins @ -150
South Carolina under 7 wins @ -145
Tennessee Over 7 wins at +140
Arizona State Under 6.5 at -110
Georgia Tech Under 8.5 at -120
Missouri Under 7.5 @ -185
Alabama over 9.5 @ +145
Southern Cal Under 10.5 -140
Arizona Over 6.5 wins at -110
VTech Under 9.5 wins at -155

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By posting this stuff

“I want to emphasize that we don’t endorse gambling at this site, and anything on here is for entertainment purposes only. Always check with your local, state, or federal laws to determine the legality of wagering.”

You do endorse it. Not that it’s wrong to do so, or wrong to gamble. But, the disclaimer is a joke.

"May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't." - General George S. Patton

by NoleCC on Aug 11, 2009 3:21 PM EDT reply actions  

No, we don't.

We’re just not afraid to discuss is and it can be a great tool that leads to greater discussion of football, specifically about overreactions to wins or losses.

by Bud Elliott on Aug 11, 2009 3:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Really?

Or were you joking too, CC? If not: Come on now. I’ve never gambled a penny, well, real money in my life, and I consider everything in these articles to be essential reading for college football fans. First of all, every college football fan should know how Vegas works. And why is that? Because of what Uncensored said. There are people who make a living by predicting the outcome of games, and folks can learn a lot about the game from them. I don’t care why they do it or if it’s right or wrong. (Though, as a disclaimer, I wouldn’t endorse it either.) Lighten up, man. It’s free knowledge. How could anyone have a problem with that? And people can do with it what they wish.

by TRMNole on Aug 12, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Buffalo thoughts?

Even with the loss of their RB, I like Buffalo +8 over UTEP.

by txnole on Sep 2, 2009 10:18 AM EDT reply actions  

Hmm

I would take buffalo if I bet it, but that’s a huge road trip.

by Bud Elliott on Sep 2, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

More... some middle opps

Week 1 Bowling Green +7.5 110
Week 1 Ball State -16.5 110
Week 1 Tulane +14.5 110
Week 1 Nevada +14.5 110
Week 1 Akron +27 110
Week 1 Missouri +7 110
Week 1 Syracuse +7.5 110
Week 1 New Mexico +14.5 110
Week 1 SDSU +20 110
Week 1 FAU +23.5 110
Week 1 ULM +42 110
Week 1 Washington +17.5 110
Week 1 Wake over 53 110
Week 1 Memphis +17 110
Week 1 Colorado -10 110

by Bud Elliott on Sep 2, 2009 3:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Fully Updated Card as of 4:03 09/02

North Carolina State -3
Wisconsin -15.5
Toledo/ Purdue Under 52
Utah State +22
Notre Dame -12.5
North Texas +21
Ohio +4.5
Auburn -13
Oklahoma -21
Illinois -4
San Jose State +35.5
Idaho +6
Georgia +6
UAB -3
Texas A&M -10
Bama/ VTech Under 37.5
Wake Forest -1
FSU/ Miami over 48.5
Clemson -19.5
Cal -20
Ohio State -21
NMST -2.5
VT +7.5
Bowling Green +7.5
Ball State -16.5
Tulane +14.5
Nevada +14.5
Akron +27
Missouri +7
Syracuse +7.5
New Mexico +14.5
SDSU +20
FAU +23.5
ULM +42
Washington +17.5
Wake over 53
Memphis +17
Colorado -10
UGA U62
UGA +5 (yes, a 2nd wager)

by Bud Elliott on Sep 2, 2009 4:03 PM EDT reply actions  

my heart

almost told me FSU -6 was the play lol.

Then i realized the over is a better play when ya look at facts and how the game might go. Now i know why a lot of folks don’t mess with their fav teams.

The heart is tough to overcome

by Cee on Sep 2, 2009 8:43 PM EDT reply actions  

FSU will beat down the canes by 21 points

Book it!

A poll on the Phil Steele site had FSU as the overwhelming favorite top 25 team to lose on opening day!

Playstation All American, right again!
TomahawkNation
Better to bear the rebuke of the wise than to hear the song of fools

by DocHoliday2 on Sep 2, 2009 10:00 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm nervous

It will surprise me if we win my more than a touchdown … our defensive experience against their offense concerns me (especially since I expect their defense to be significantly better than our defense on opening day … the yarb discussion really concerns me).

by txnole on Sep 3, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Zach's Moneyline of the Week (Week 1)

I post one of these heading into each week on my fantasy football board with my buddies. The goal is to pick an underdog who you think will win outright.
In 2008, I went 8-6.

For week 1:

Oregon (+145) at Boise State

I like Oregon in this game for a number of reasons.
First, Oregon will want to pay revenge to Boise State for last year’s loss in Eugene. Second, they are the more talented team in my opinion. Third, the ugly blue field is a natural habitat for Oregon’s putrid uniforms. Fourth, Boise will be starting 3 White Linebackers agains perhaps the nation’s best Spread offense…..trouble.

Oddsmakers like Boise for good reason. They have been nothing short of dominant at home this decade. They haven’t faced many teams like Oregon though, and I think the wrong team is favored in this game.

Take Oregon to win tomorrow night at 10:30pm.

by Zach_Nole on Sep 3, 2009 7:23 AM EDT reply actions  

Nice!

I am staying away from this game. Oregon lost a ton along both lines, but I don’t think Boise is any great shakes and they are incredibly young on defense, but several guys I fade love Oregon.

by Bud Elliott on Sep 3, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oregon RB LaGarrette Blount

Former Nole prospect, should have a big game tonight. He might be bigger than any of the BSU LBs. Should be an entertaining game that may go down to the wire.

by FtLauderdaleNole on Sep 3, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well I probably won't have an audience for Week 2

Oregon hasn’t accomplished a first down yet, and we are midway through the third quarter….unbelievable.

by Zach_Nole on Sep 4, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

No worse than any other loss.

I had Bowling Green as mine. Lots of people I try to go against had Troy.

by Bud Elliott on Sep 4, 2009 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

FSUn, great stuff

Love the insight, I personally don’t do a large volume of games myself. I try to take my 5-10 favorites and stick to those. I think early in the season, there is tons of value in the lines as the public typically bases their opinion on prior year results.

Having said that, I’m all over these games (using current lines):

NC St -4.5
WF -2
UGa +5
Illinois/Mizzou over 60.5
VT +6.5
Cal -21

by FtLauderdaleNole on Sep 3, 2009 10:01 AM EDT reply actions  

That Wake Forest game is a tough call

Wake loses their two best defensive players (and overall team leaders) and they have to go against a really good young qb who can run. Who does Wake return on offense at the skill positions?

by kyled on Sep 3, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Have to be ready to roll a few weeks before week 1

The lines tighten up later in the season. I am wary of taking VT at anything less than 7 because I don’t trust them. Wake should score on Baylor, and yeah, Maryland is horrible.

by Bud Elliott on Sep 3, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

VT/Bama game

In what figures to be a tight, low scoring defensive oriented game, 6-7 pts is alot. I also happen to think VT will win the special teams battle which is good for 3-7 pts likely.

Barring turnovers, I don’t see how either team gets over 20 pts.

by FtLauderdaleNole on Sep 3, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

new thread?

Is there gonna be a new thread for week 2 or will they be here? I don’t really know how to find this thread so i hafta bookmark it lol

by Cee on Sep 9, 2009 2:36 AM EDT reply actions  

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