2009 Florida State Seminoles--Progression, Continuation, or Regression?
by FrankDNole on Aug 14, 2009 8:51 PM EDT
in FSU Football
71 comments
It's come to this, you're covered in blood
So how could you miss?
Who are we are?...
Lyrics by Fightstar
Are you confused, befuddled, perplexed, bewildered, nonplussed, discombobulated, or baffled? Don't worry, so am I.
When I started this 7 part series, I started it by asking myself the following question: "Are my 2009 Noles going to be better than last year’s team?"
I then took off my Garnet and Gold glasses and tried to answer that very question about the 7 different units, as objectively as possible in each part of the series, and I asked you to do the same. Now the TOMAHAWK NATION members have spoken, and they have spoken loud and clear.
The TOMAHAWK NATION members (and staff) have very often been accused of being a overly negative group of antagonizers and agitators by some of our pay subscription site "rivals". These are the same sites that prefer to preach that all is good and all is great in the Seminole Nation, that Bobby and Chuck should be allowed to coach collect a paycheck as long as their hearts desire, and that you dare not disagree with that mission statement by your comments, or your nads will be cut off.
I purposely omitted Mickey from that last sentence, because while he may not have mastered defending the spread offense (neither have 95% of the other DC's), IMO, he still does coach and I believe he cares and works hard not to let the game pass him by any further. (Please continue after the jump)
IN ORDER FOR YOUR VOTE TO BE COUNTED, YOU MUST BE A TOMAHAWK NATION MEMBER. IF YOU ARE NOT A TOMAHAWK NATION MEMBER YOUR VOTE WILL BE DISCARDED. CLICK HERE TO JOIN TOMAHAWK NATION--IT WILL TAKE LESS THAN ONE MINUTE.
Please continue reading to see if you agree with how the rest of the TOMAHAWK NATION members voted.
Let me just start out by saying this, judging from the results of the polls associated with this series, apparently we have also become a very optimistic group of Brawndo (formerly known as Kool-Aid) drinkers, and our outlook and sunny disposition for this season will put any of those other pay sites schmucks customers to shame.
We have voted on whether the Defensive Line, the Receivers/Tight End, the Secondary, the Offensive Backfield, the Linebackers, the Special Teams, and the Offensive Line, will be better, the same, or worse than last years equivalent unit.
After reading, analyzing, and reviewing your votes, I will ask you to VOTE one last time (I can hear you now saying, VOTE AGAIN-PLEASE FRANK GIVE IT A REST. So I promise, no more voting) {until next time} on how many games you expect the 2009 Seminoles football team will win this year.
2009 FSU DEFENSIVE LINE
PROGRESSION
STAGNATION
REGRESSION
355 votes
2009 FSU LINEBACKERS
PROGRESSION
CONTINUATION
REGRESSION
282 votes
2009 FSU DEFENSIVE SECONDARY
PROGRESSION
CONTINUATION
REGRESSION
265 votes
2009 FSU SPECIAL TEAMS
PROGRESSION
CONTINUATION
REGRESSION
323 votes
NOTE: THIS NEXT POLL IS STILL OPEN, BUT DOES IT REALLY MATTER ANYHOW?
2009 FSU OFFENSIVE LINE
PROGRESSION
CONTINUATION
REGRESSION
320 votes
2009 FSU WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT END
PROGRESSION
STAGNATION
REGRESSION
306 votes
2009 FSU OFFENSIVE BACKFIELD
PROGRESSION
CONTINUATION
REGRESSION
196 votes
So to recap,
A) Half of those who voted think the front 7 will be better than last years front 7, while 32% think they will be about the same, and 15% think the front 7 will be worse. PROGRESSION! {:-)
2) 42% think the secondary will be better, 36% of you think the secondary will be just as good, and 20% think we have regressed in that area of the field. (This was the most contested and closest voted unit) PROGRESSION! {:-)
D) The majority (68%) don't expect our special teams to be as dependable as last years unit. However, from the comments made, I understood you to mean the place kicker Hopkins is the real question mark while the other 3 parts of the special teams (punter, KO returners, and Punt returners) you expect to be at least as good. REGRESSION! {:-(
5) Judging from the overwhelming majority of your votes, 95% have no doubt that the Offensive backfield and the offensive line will be so much better, it could be reminiscent of the 90's dynasty (my words). PROGRESSION! {:-)
K) 59% of you think the receivers and TE's will be better, 23% think they will be the same, and 16% think not as good. PROGRESSION! {:-)
OK now I can hear you asking, Frank, what does this all mean and what have we learned?
The answers are I dunno' and nothing really.
However, I will say this, judging from your voting, YOU the most knowledgeable group of Seminole Fans on any board, expects this team to once again be a relevant player in college football, are expecting a better season than last years 9-4, and think the FSU SEMINOLES ARE ON THEIR WAY BACK!
NOW YOU MUST CONFIRM THAT YOU AGREE WITH THAT STATEMENT BY VOTING FOR THE NUMBER OF WINS YOU EXPECT THE NOLES WILL HAVE THIS YEAR. THAT IS UNLESS YOU FEEL THAT EVEN THOUGH YOU VOTED THAT 6 OF THE 7 UNITS WILL BE BETTER THAN LAST YEARS EQUIVALENT UNITS, WE WILL WIND UP WITH A WORSE RECORD THAN LAST YEAR TEAM.
CAN THIS BE POSSIBLE?
IN ORDER FOR YOUR VOTE TO COUNT YOU MUST BE A TOMAHAWK NATION MEMBER.
IF YOU ARE NOT A TOMAHAWK NATION MEMBER YOUR VOTE WILL BE DISCARDED.
CLICK HERE TO JOIN TOMAHAWK NATION--IT WILL TAKE LESS THAN ONE MINUTE.
(YOU WILL NOT RECEIVE SPAM AND YOUR INFORMATION WILL NOT BE SOLD TO THIRD PARTIES)
MY PREDICTION FOR NUMBER OF WINS THIS YEAR=10+ACC
What is your prediction? Please vote now.
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… You can’t win 13 w/o winning the ACC
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."
"But How will I know limits from lies, if I never try."
My bad
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."
"But How will I know limits from lies, if I never try."
by geoffissiffoeg on Aug 14, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
8 wins sounds about right to me
Could be 9 if we catch a break somewhere but there are too many question marks on defense for me to feel comfortable saying we win 9 or 10. The good thing however is most of the Ls we may take will come from non-ACC teams so we may sneak into the ACC title game.
Who are you saying will be L's= UF, BYU, USF, and ??? are all loses?
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
UF and USF for me
UF – Do I really need to explain although I would be happy if we beat them.
USF – White out. Like the black out I don’t expect a W because for some reason we don’t do well with these gimmicks.
Add two ACC losses and we could be 8-4 however I can only see at most one ACC team sneaking a win against us but not two although it is possible.
Either way I think we can get into the ACC Championship Game with a 8-4(6-2) record or if we only lose one game then 9-3(7-1) which to me would be a successful season.
by Legal_Seminole on Aug 15, 2009 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Just can't see USF
I don’t doubt we lose to them out of ego from us being part of the “Big 3” and USF being an upstart program. Levitt has been driving off coaches lately at a fairly alarming rate. Grothe also has problems with his accuracy and on defense the Bulls are a bit of a one man show. I just don’t see them putting up enough points to beat us. I’m much more worried about UNC and Ga Tech.
by osceolafan850 on Aug 15, 2009 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Given our history with these type of games I am not as sure as you
It seems almost routine for us to lose to some team we have no business losing too. I hope I am wrong because I have friends who went to USF and I like to remind them they are just a flash in the pan.
by Legal_Seminole on Aug 15, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
For me
Not against this schedule. I don’t think last year’s team would have had a final record of 9-4 against this year’s schedule.
Swagger, Intensity, Execution
12, losses @UNC and UF and win the ACC
"It's always funny until someone gets hurt. Then it's just hilarious."-Bill Hicks
by Jonathan Loesche on Aug 14, 2009 10:00 PM EDT reply actions
That's assuming we get consistent QB play from either Ponder or Manuel
If Ponder goes streaky like last year, then 9 wins
"It's always funny until someone gets hurt. Then it's just hilarious."-Bill Hicks
by Jonathan Loesche on Aug 14, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Feeling optimistic I went with 12+ACC
"It's always funny until someone gets hurt. Then it's just hilarious."-Bill Hicks
by Jonathan Loesche on Aug 14, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I figured 10 wins
That is contingent however on injuries. I don’t think this team can afford many more injuries of the ACL type especially to defensive tackles and linebackers.
I would consider an injury to Ponder, Thomas, McDaniels, Bradham, Patrick Robinson and possibly Jamie Robinson to be season changing due to the depth and experience situation.
There are always injuries but I hate to see the season ending types.
You did a very good job with this Frank and you made it interesting and informative. I appreciate your efforts.
As far as rating the players it was interesting. I have certainly not watched film on all of them but I have more faith in people around here than some of the other sites. I guess I am too familiar with the others to put a lot of stock in what they say. It is more of directing you to what you supposed to think than proper discussion of football.
But at any rate I think FSU can win ten or more and would be extremely surprised if they won less than 9. In my opinion it would take a lot of injuries for that to happen.
Playstation All American, right again!
TomahawkNation
Better to bear the rebuke of the wise than to hear the song of fools
Wow...what a positive turn of events...
it seems like only yesterday we were talking about realistic expectations…i digress.
Go Noles! 10 or more + ACC…. I voted 11+ ACC in a moment of excitement. If I could take it back, I may reduce it a notch :)
Sorry but this is not Florida where anything goes in elections, oh wait yes it is.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Folks we have our first 14-0, Kool Aid on the house for everyone.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Frank, it's getting late...there's probably some Vodka or Bourbon in that Kool-Aid.
I started to type it Kool-A&*, just for MattD’s sake :)
Doesn't matter if the glass is half empty or half full if you have a lot of glasses.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
S.O.S.
I thik the schedule is getting easier by the the minute. BC, NC State and Maryland have all lost major pieces. BYU’s defense looks to be nothing to worry about. I expect UM’s offense to be shakey at the start of the season. I think we beat USF as long as we don’t let Selvie go wild. I have no faith in Dabo so I am picking us over Clemson. And I don’t think we lose to both UNC and GT.
As I take a sip of the grape flavor we could actually go 10-2 or 9-3 in the regular season. I don’t have faith in Va Tech developing a passing game and the ACC champ plays the Big East so that would be a win as well. 11-3 plus the ACC. I’m almost embarrassed that I typed that.
Sounds logical to me when you explain it that way. I likey the way you think.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
I went 9-3 regular season plus either ACC Champ or bowl game win
10-4.
OH YEAAHH!
by TBfisherman on Aug 14, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
That's seems to be the consensus at this point, though it is still very early.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Selvie is overrated IMO
He also plays 3 straight cupcakes before he has to deal with Andrew Datko who will be battle tested and is already a MAN. Selvie loses IMO.
Biggest games IMO
@ North Carolina on Thursday, @ Clemson, and @ Wake Forrest. FSU has had a tough time on Thursday games, Clemson is always tough, and the Noles haven’t been able to beat Wake in three years (can we whoop their asses this year!). FSU must win at least two. I feel those three games will determine the season. I pray for 9 wins and a chance at the ACC title. If all else fails, can Tebow at least suffer a major injury, I’m thinking Darnell Dockett vs Ernest Graham here.
by cousinjay on Aug 14, 2009 10:58 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Yeah, giving wake the game in 2007 up there (that we should have won)
sickens me more than the shutout at home. At least we got Jeff’s head for that one.
I don't know, I still throw up a little in my mouth when I think 30-0 at home in 2006. .
The other 2 we mighta coulda shoulda won, this one was just a embarrassment all around.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Embrassing bc they seemed to quit, I may have cried myself to sleep that night
by cousinjay on Aug 14, 2009 11:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I live in Tally now, but was in Fort Walton at the time...
That was the first game my wife had been to, so we sat there cold in the rain for every minute. Yes, it sucked very much.
If she was your wife at that time, then she was already trapped. If she wasn't, I am surprised she stuck around.
So I guess there must have been a little more to it than just the game.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
when I consulted my most trusted and seasoned Nole aficionados...
….the independent consensus is 30-0 was the nadir of our program on every level. I didn’t have the good fortune of torturing myself in the rain that night, but I trust the word of my fellow battered souls.
by The K-Man on Aug 15, 2009 4:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
At our meetings for sex addicts, they tell us you must go out and experience everything before you can hit rock bottom. That my friend, was rock bottom.
BTW, these are meetings for those who want to become sex addicts, not to get cured.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
The 3 year drought that should have never been will finally be over this year, I firmly believe.
the Noles haven’t been able to beat Wake in three years (can we whoop their asses this year!).
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
well I think its good for us that we moght improve.
I like FSUn idea of wins and loses. Dont guess but use a % chance of winning. I try to look at it this way. I think we will win 9-10 reg season with a lose to UF, at least one ACC lost to GT I hope but gut is telling me Clemson or NCST. The other will be one of those games or ether USF or BYU. I think we have at least a 60%+ chance with all our games other than UF but the X factor is someone key gets hurt, we might have a 60% chance each game but all together the chance goese down in my eyes( I hope that makes sence) I think we have the power to win the ACC and the OB But first and most is to just win the ACC. Cant look to far into the future and get burned on the road.
Miami 75% win
JackSt 95% win
BYU 75% win
USF 65% win
BC 70% win
GT60% win
UNC 60% win
NCST 65% win
Clemson 60% win
WF 60% win
MD 90% win
UF10% win And thats more than I should I think.
Yes we could be at 11-0 going into UF but what would that mean. Its bad I can tell you that. If we are and UF blows us out witch they prob will Im make the ACC look real bad and shows the best in the ACC is still that much farther behind the SEC and thats one thing we dont want. Anyhow #1 goal win the ACC this year. Thats it
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
I don't think FSU vs UF is considered too much of a ACC vs SEC battle, even though it is.
I think it is more of a mutual hatred of each other in a battle for state dominance, which unfortunately the Turds have been winning for the past 4 years. What goes around…..
We are in the same situation they were in throughout most of the late 80’s and 90’s (except 96) when we were being called the team of the decade and the teams of the century.
Even so, if you want to get down to ACC vs SEC, without taking the time to research and based on memory from last year, I think we won the regular season battles and they won the bowl battles. But I could be wrong.
I don’t think of UF in terms of SEC, I think of the Turds as a hated rival, just as UM. Though my level of hatred of each depends on our W/L record against them at the time. Right now it is the Gaturds at the top of the list.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
The SEC is top heavy
every single year. The rest of the teams are usually scrappy and well coached but not significantly better than teams in any other conference (see their Out of Conference record against the ACC in recent years). Each season there are 1 or 2 (sometimes three teams) that are nationally elite which gives the rest of the conference a free pass. Those bottom teams turn in mediocre to poor seasons and still get credit for being in the “tough” SEC despite the fact that only 1 or 2, 3 at the most of their loses came from truly great competition.
this year
after one week of practice, I think we get 10 wins. I think we get upset at Clemson ( I hate them) and maybe UNC and Miami is worrisome. What I hope doesn’t happen is get destroyed by UF, then lose the ACC championship and then lose a bowl game. Three in a row would not be a way to go out.
However, judging from the great analysis on this website, there is no reason why we can’t go 13-1. Could you imagine the hype of an 11-0 FSU going into the swamp to play an 11-0 UF?
I would rather they have at least one loss going in. I could not stand them matching our wire to wire plateau, even though it could very well happen.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
i am hoping 10-2, but my gut tells me 8-4
The Clemson game scares me to death. I’m also very nervous about Miami and USF. Can we stop 5 WR sets? I’m not worried about UNC like everyone else, their offense just doesn’t scare me at all. If we win against Miami, then I can start being optimistic. Until then, I remain cautiously hopeful.
by Zach_Nole on Aug 15, 2009 11:26 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
With our track record, you have to be nervous against UM. I feel better about beating USF, but Clemson and GT are my biggest worries that are not in Fla.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Not worried about UM
What new OC comes in and has his offense running on all cylinders on game 1 year 1? Not to mention Mickey’s defense is made to face pro style, Harris is a stick figure with less than a year under his belt and their two half backs are extremely average. Thomas’ stats crushed both of their’s IMO. We will give up some big plays, because our scheme basicaly demands it when facing a team as fast as the Canes. But they will not have the long drives we will.
The games that worry me are Ga Tech, UNC, UF and maybe Clemson. I have no faith in Dabo so I think we win that one, but there is a chance we lose all three of the other games. We might out score UNC since they lost a lot of offense but their defense may pull it out for them. Ga Tech lost a lot on their D-line but it won’t matter if they run all over us again. UF is UF right now so nothing needs to be said about this year.
Our defense can play great with a lead. They are built to do that...
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the “best called game” by MA was against UM (after we had a big lead). Our defense is like an amateur poker player at pub poker. They always seem to do well when nothing is at stake. When we have the lead, they play free and loose, and always seem to make big plays (like the Maryland game). I wanna see how this formula does against UF. UF will be the best defense we’ll see all year, but we play in the very defensive ACC. If we can move the ball in conference play, we can do it against UF. If we can score first and often, maybe magic can happen…
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
We just don't have the defensive front 7 to win more than 9 games....
we lack size, lack depth, and lack experience.
There are some issues in the secondary, but at least we have bodies there and it isn’t as physical there as say DT, where you better have a rugged group.
I think it will take a whole new staff before FSU figures out that teams are just running it down our throats and you can’t do much until that is fixed.
I think we go 8-4 in the regular season. Then we’ll take on a 10-2 Vtech team and hammer them to win the ACC. We’ll stroll into the Orange bowl @ 9-4 and promptly prison rape whoever the big east champion is to finish the season 10-4. This way Bobby goes out with a ACC championship, a BCS bowl victory, and a 10 win season
by Quentin C on Aug 15, 2009 6:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wow thats one way to say that.
here is the thing I see The ACC dont have very good Offenses in it. GT and Us that about it. NCST might be ok but thats about it. We can beat the rest with our Offense. OOC games USF and BYU are not all that good. The bad thing about the BCS bowl is if we go and a team like USF is the Big east champ and we end up playing ND, TCU or Utah. That could be a bad thing for us. Well other thank ND because they suck and wont get more than 6 wins at most.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
ND has an easy schedule
They’ll win a few more than 6 this season. Maybe even 10+
With ND's schedule...
they don’t pull at LEAST 8 it is bye bye Charlie. Well, it should be anyway.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Aug 16, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
i have that dream at least once a week.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Aug 16, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont see Urban jumping ship
If you think about it he has a dream job now. If he goes to ND he has to up his Players standards and cant get the talent he would need to make ND better. At UF he can keep that team on top for a while longer if he realy wanted.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
oh i'm aware...
it is just a dream. but it sometimes helps me sleep at night.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Aug 17, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
ya I use beer and pills
It makes the pain go away.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
If we can score and run the ball well (clock management)
Our defense will survive. We can play defense with a lead, force the other team to be one dimensional and keep our guys fresh if our offense is as good as many of us expect it to be this season. A great offense makes a defense look (and play) a hell of a lot better. Also important to remember that although our defense lacks depth and experience those kids aren’t totally incapable. They are extremely talented and Mickey Andrews defense has been counted out in the preseason on more than one occasion. He may suck against the spread, but he’s pulled off some magic tricks in the past, even in the midst of our overall mediocrity.
The other teams
The other teams on this schedule are so flawed that I have a hard time seeing where FSU loses, seriously. These teams are really flawed.
I voted 11 plus the ACC and that’s being conservative knowing we have little depth on the DL. Our starting talent matches anyone’s starting talent in the NCAA, injuries will happen but it is rare that your starting QB, star DT and DE, two LBs and star CB all go down for the year or the majority of the season. That’s the only scenario I can see FSU not winning at least nine against this weak schedule.
I’ll give it to Clemson as the loss along with the Gators simply because I don’t think Ponder will be perfect (he’ll have that one bad game) and the combination of our lack of depth on the DL and Clemson at home will give it to them. But even that’s very questionable.
They were’nt that good to begin with, the major injury was Brown.
If Ponder was to go down we wouldn’t be that bad off as I think Maunal is the better passer and runner right now but his inexperience in bigger games would cost us (like Clemson, UNC and GT). I think we could win eight or nine easily without Ponder simply because of our run game and front seven. Remember, we didn’t win last year because of a stering defense or passing game, it was that running game which is even better this year. The defense will be better this year as well.
Where to begin
“Our starting talent matches anyone’s starting talent in the NCAA…”
No, no, no.
There’s a reason this is the #2 strength of schedule in America. Trust the multiple experts that agree with the schedule assessment.
Have you watched this team play for the last 8 years? Things don’t turn around in two years when the man at the top is still here.
Swagger, Intensity, Execution
I don’t think we match up with the Texas or Oklahoma offensively but don;‘t get it twisted, they play in a offensive minded conference and we play in a defensive minded conference. That said, WE had the top offense in the conference AND we were top 25 statisically in defense. I don’t think either matches us defensively especially Texas. The thing that makes us look bad on defense is MA’s stupid gameplanning for the zone read and option attacks. Everyone else he shuts down.
As far as the experts, I don’t need experts to tell me what i can see with my own eyes. Miami is inexperienced with new coaches, BYU is injury riddled and slow, GT still can’t pass and lost 3/4 of the DL, UNC has no recievers and a a very average rushing attack, Clemson has talent but no experienced QB or inside rushing presence due to the graduation of Davis, USF is just not talented enough is the secondary,
The offense is going to be even better and the defense will be slightly better as well. The people we will miss the most are Gano and Brown. White is taking Brown’s position and Hopkins is taking Gano’s and niether are scrubs in the least. Hopkins has gotten priase from both coaches. If you’re going to rip BB then give credit to JF fro taking this team back on the national stage.
There’s a reason why I say 11-3 or 12-2 and the ACC.
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