FanPost

Help with my theory!!!

I'm trying to compare teams through a filter of line play (OL V DL of coarse), QB play and a couple of sub-factors such as home field, coaching, and special teams.  To see if I can get a tighter hold on projecting teams without, getting lost in the menutia of personal opinion and how "good" a team is overall.  BOTTOM LINE being how do they match up.

Trouble is I need help figuring out how to evaluate a few areas on the fly....

One of the keys is to evaluate those areas using unbiased info.  I'm using Phill Steels unit rankings as a launch, pad.  I know it's not perfect, but It's based on numbers and talent projections, so its a good starting point for unbiased evaluation. 

Another of the keys will be adjustments.  Teams don't field the same teams that he is evaluation in the mid-summer.  For example we have already made changes in personel compared to some of his evaluation of our seminoles. Players get hurt and don't play, or come back at 75%, or go on mission(heh heh).  The point is by the time game time rolls around the DL's, OL's and QB's have changed, not always for the worst either.  (see Toshmon moving outside)

Yet another key is adjusting for improvments.  Teams get better in areas.  They get bigger, or in better shape, or more mature, or more talented with youth stepping up....you get the idea.  I need to adjust for these thing by game time, and as the season reaveals the truth (e.g. an OL is performing better than expected, or worse)

I need ideas on how to evaluated change (in an unbiased way) in these three areas. 

Please Post Ideas specific to the areas...suggestiongs for 1. or 2. or 3.  [or A 2 D format if you prefer] 

Also remember I am looking to evaluate specific units (OL, DL, QB, ST, Coaching)

Areas

1. What unbiased info or methods will help evaluate improvement or regression in teams that have yet to play a game?

2. How to re-evaluate units as they experience change in Personel?

3. How to evaluate improvement/or regression in units as the season unfolds? (over performing and underperforming units, forget the experts what are they ACTUALLY DOING.)


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