Predict the Florida State Seminole's Season! How will FSU do in Each Game?

Back in may, I wrote about how professionals go about predicting a season (warning, statistics and math), by looking at each individual game for each team, and assigning a rough estimated winning percentage for those games.  Today we ask for your predictions!  I asked Tomahawk Nation's authors to go through the exercise, and have it in spreadsheet form.  Go through each game on the schedule, and let us know how likely the Florida State Seminoles are to win each game!  Go on Record!  This is your chance.  If you don't get in here, we won't let you come back and say "I told you so!"  Here are the games. 

Date Opponent Result
Sep. 7 Miami-FL 8, ESPN
Sep. 12 Jacksonville St. 6, ESPN360.com
Sep. 19 at BYU 7, VERSUS
Sep. 26 South Florida TBA
Oct. 3 at Boston College TBA
Oct. 10 Georgia Tech TBA
Oct. 22 at North Carolina (Thursday Night) 8, ESPN
Oct. 31 NC State TBA
Nov. 7 at Clemson TBA
Nov. 14 at Wake Forest TBA
Nov. 21 Maryland TBA
Nov. 28 at Florida 3:30, CBS

Go through them before you click to see what everyone else picked.  We want your gut feeling, not a cloned version of the TN average.  Remember, we want the percentage chance that FSU will win in each game!  Don't just say "win- loss- win- win- win."  We're not accepting that.  This literally takes two minutes.  With over 1100 members, we expect to have a great turnout!

 

Member Name Miami Jax St @ BYU USF @ BC GT @ UNC NC ST @ CLEM @ WAKE MD @ UF Total Projected Wins Favored
Ricobert11 75% 100% 70% 75% 95% 50% 60% 70% 65% 85% 85% 33% 8.6 10
FrankDNole 73% 91% 78% 80% 78% 56% 59% 68% 63% 79% 89% 41% 8.6 11
The K-Man 70% 95% 75% 85% 80% 45% 50% 75% 50% 75% 90% 20% 8.1 8
Nolesblogger 75% 100% 80% 70% 85% 50% 50% 75% 50% 80% 85% 10% 8.1 8
Nattylite 80% 94% 75% 75% 68% 49% 51% 70% 55% 65% 85% 25% 7.9 10
Pbysh 75% 95% 80% 80% 80% 50% 40% 75% 50% 60% 80% 15% 7.8 8
MissouriNole 70% 99% 70% 65% 80% 50% 45% 65% 50% 70% 85% 25% 7.7 9
True Cubbie 72% 100% 75% 75% 70% 50% 50% 70% 45% 70% 85% 5% 7.7 8
Oline01075 65% 99% 80% 80% 75% 55% 40% 60% 30% 65% 80% 20% 7.5 9
MattDNole 75% 95% 75% 75% 75% 45% 40% 65% 35% 60% 85% 10% 7.4 8
SWFL Nole 60% 99% 80% 70% 70% 50% 45% 65% 45% 65% 80% 5% 7.3 8
FSUncensored 70% 100% 55% 72% 70% 55% 43% 75% 35% 63% 88% 8% 7.3 9
FSU44 67% 99% 60% 70% 79% 45% 46% 58% 40% 65% 85% 10% 7.2 8
FSUSom 60% 95% 70% 65% 75% 45% 40% 75% 40% 65% 75% 10% 7.2 8
NoleThruAndThru 55% 95% 65% 60% 70% 50% 50% 50% 60% 50% 70% 10% 6.9 7
Fsued 65% 99% 65% 75% 60% 40% 30% 65% 45% 45% 75% 10% 6.7 7
Average 69% 97% 72% 73% 76% 49% 46% 68% 47% 66% 83% 16% 7.6 8.5

 

Keep in mind that the boys in Vegas (or Costa Rica, more accurately), give FSU a 45% chance of going 8-4 or better, but a 55% chance of going 7-5 or worse (and yes, that worse includes the very real possibility of a 5-7 season, which could happen if injuries strike the 'Nole's defense where lazy recruiting in 2006 and 2007 have made the defense unable to field a legitimate 2-deep.)

Tomahawk Nation Author's Projection:  7.7 wins, which we'll round up to 8-4 (pending the other author's picks).

Other interesting notes (and there are still a few authors to get their picks in):

  • For the full 12 game schedule, we project 7.7 wins.
  • For the first 11 games, we project 7.5 wins.  That shows the incredible weight of the UF game, which none of us believe we will win (and few believe we have the game ready talent to hang with for a half). 
  • ACC:  We project 5.05 ACC wins, or in other words,a  5-3 ACC record.  That's why it matters that Clemson gets to play a terrible Virginia team from the Coastal division, while FSU must play 3 beastly teams from the Coastal.  Will 5-3 be enough to win the Atlantic Division?  A 6-2 record would be seriously exceeding projections, by a full game.  The Noles are projected by us to be favorites in 5 of the ACC games, but big favorites in only two, while being essentially coin flips or slightly worse in the 3 projected losses (GT, @ UNC, @Clemson). 
  • Interestingly enough, the Wake Forest game inspired the most disagreement, with some projecting as high as 85% confidence (21 point favorites), and some as low as 45% (underdogs of about a field goal).  
  • This exercise is great for demonstrating the cumulative effect of the toughest schedule in the Nation.  All of us expect FSU to be better this year than last year, and most feel this will be the best FSU team since the early parts of the decade, but this is the toughest schedule in the nation, recognized by almost everyone- from Phil Steele, to CBS.  There are no easy games outside of the one cupcake, and FSU will have to play their starters a lot, which increases the chance for injury.
  • This should be an interesting case study on a team that will probably be small favorites (less than 10 points), in more than half of its games.  Will FSU win their battle against attrition?  Can the Noles stay healthy, and play with great intensity each week?  Is this a chance for a team to exceed its projection, due to the large number of projected close wins?  What do you think? 

We will have an updated spreadsheet with your selections tonight.  Anyone who wants to crunch the numbers is more than welcome to.  If something should be added to this article, let us know!

 

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