Progression, Continuation, or Regression? Noles Special Teams
by FrankDNole on Aug 9, 2009 12:32 PM EDT
in FSU Football
32 comments
Every day while catching up on my daily Nole must reads, I very often wonder to myself, "Are my 2009 Noles going to be better than last year’s team?"
I would like to thank those of you who have been playing along. After finishing this part, only the Offensive Line remains. Then I will recap what the TN members have projected on how each of these units will perform, for prosperity's sake. After the season, we will all be amazed at what a brilliant group of prognosticators the TN members are, and many of you will have none other than Phil Steele banging on your door with employment offers.
So far we have analyzed, discussed, and you have voted on whether the Defensive Line, the Receivers/Tight End, the Secondary, the Offensive Backfield, and the Linebackers, will be better, the same, or worse than last years equivalent unit. Today we will take a look at the Special Teams, to determine if this unit has progressed, expected to continue at the same level, or regressed, in comparison to last years "SPECIAL" special teams unit.
Gano's gone. 'Nuff said. Please vote now. (OK wait a minute).
As I prepared for this Special Teams part of the series, I felt this was really all I needed to say. However,
I feel that if you are going to do something, do it as best you can. So on with my drivel.
SPECIAL TEAMS
No group suffered a bigger loss than the special teams when Lou Groza Award winner Graham Gano graduated. Gano not only won the top award for a kicker but he also is believed to be the first punter ever to be named the MVP of a bowl game when he took home those honors in the Champs Sports Bowl.
For more on what the loss of Gano might mean, I suggest you read this nice piece by fsu44, 2009 Florida State Place Kicking Preview: How Much Will FSU Miss Graham Gano?, which includes some good information on the success of freshman kickers, as well as some good statistics and analysis.
The Seminoles will return their deep snapper Zack Aronson, and holder Shawn Powell this season.
James Esco and Nathan O’Jibway handled all kicking duties this spring. Neither has ever attempted a field goal in a game during their careers. Esco and O’Jibbway were looking to get a leg up on the nation’s No. 1 kicking prospect Dustin Hopkins before he enrolled this summer, but Hopkins is the projected place kicker at this point.
Powell, who started the first seven games of the season as the team’s punter, will take over full-time duties for Gano. The sophomore had almost identical numbers to Gano through the regular season, however Gano's ability to pin opponents inside the 20 yard line is surely something that will not be forgotten very easily by Nole fans.
2008 PLACE KICKER=Zack Hobby started the first 2 games while Gano recovered from his injuries, then Gano started the next 11 games. Both are now gone.
2009 PROJECTED PLACE KICKER=Dustin Hopkins is expected to start, followed by James Esco and Nathan O'Jibway.
2008 PUNTER=Shawn Powell started the first 7 games and Gano finished the last 6.
PUNTING No Yds Avg Long TB FC I20 Blkd
-------------------------------------------------------
Graham Gano 22 939 42.7 58 0 7 8 0
Shawn Powell 18 739 41.1 56 1 2 4 0
2009 PROJECTED PUNTER=Shawn Powell followed by Kevin Campbell
2008 PUNT RETURNER=Tony Carter and Bert Reed. Carter is gone.
PUNT RETURNS No Yds Avg TD Long
------------------------------------------
Tony Carter 8 113 14.1 1 68t
Bert Reed 8 63 7.9 0 18
A.J. Alexander 1 12 12.0 0 12
Preston Parker 3 7 2.3 0 4
Ochuko Jenije 2 6 3.0 0 7
Roosevelt Lawson 1 5 5.0 0 5
Dekoda Watson 1 3 3.0 0 3
Total......... 24 209 8.7 1 68t
Opponent...... 16 138 8.6 0 18
2009 PROJECTED PUNT RETURNER=Bert Reed and Greg Reid
2008 KICK OFF RETURNERS=Michael Ray Garvin and Preston Parker are both gone.
KICK RETURNS No Yds Avg TD Long ------------------------------------------ Michael Ray Garvin 22 662 30.1 1 94t Preston Parker 8 162 20.3 0 35 Taiwan Easterling 7 141 20.1 0 29 Bert Reed 6 132 22.0 0 41 Patrick Robinson 4 112 28.0 0 39 Nigel Bradham 2 36 18.0 0 19 Seddrick Holloway 2 28 14.0 0 22 Joe Surratt 1 7 7.0 0 7 Nigel Carr 1 0 0.0 0 0 Total......... 53 1280 24.2 1 94t Opponent...... 71 1431 20.2 0 57
2009 PROJECTED KICK OFF RETURNERS=A.J. Alexander and Louis Givens
So there you have it. Graham Gano, last seasons MVP IMO, and Garvin left some pretty big shoes to fill.
MY BOTTOM LINE FOR THE SPECIAL TEAMS=REGRESSION
What is your bottom line? Please vote now.
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well we lost a great guy but
didnt we recruit a great kid. also With all the Speed we recruited maybe we will have a good punt cover and kickoff teams. We need t get better at the other stuff than the kicker we lost. We need to start blocking kickes and we need to get down feild and cover better. A kicker like him dosnt just get replaced but that was the only great thing our ST had the rest was ok. We need the rest to get better and a kicker that is ok.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Yes we did. Hopkins was the best of the 2009 class. Here is his bio.
Dustin Hopkins
6-2, 174, K
Houston, TX (Clear Lake)
RANKINGS: Rivals No. 1 kicker in the 2009 class…Scout.com No. 1 kicker…ESPN No.1 kicker…Prep Star All-American.
Bio: The consensus top kicker in the nation…a USA Today first team All-American…Under Armour All-American…two-time first team all-state 5A kicker in Texas…nation’s top-ranked kicker according to kicking guru and UCLA record holder Chris Sailer…longest field goal during his senior year was from
49 yards…missed only three kicks as a senior and two were from 58 and 64 yards away…made over 70 PAT’s in his career…went 37-for-37 on point after attempts as a junior and 6-of-7 on field goal attempts including two from 43 yards…averaged 73 yards on his kickoffs…kicked a 46-yard field goal in the Under Armour All-America game…connected on a 65-yard field goal during practice at the all-star game…even played DB for Clear Lake where he recorded an interception…has a GPA above 4.0…plans to major in business marketing with a minor in broadcasting…chose FSU over Notre Dame, Missouri and Kansas State.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
not that it really matters,
But Nathan O’Jibway transferred to a small school this spring.
There will never be another Graham Gano at FSU. But if somehow there was, I want to be there when this kicking Messiah feeds the entire team with one fish and loaf of bread.
by The K-Man on Aug 9, 2009 12:52 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
K-Man, I did not know that about O'Jibway. He was still listed on the spring roster and at Seminoles.com.
Since I believe everything you say, I checked and the only info I could find was one article of him talking about transferring to a small school in Tenn., so I assume you are correct that he is history. He was a LB size kicker who had a decent HS career in Fort Meyers. Isn’t it funny how you can never tell who will pan out.
To quote you, not that it really matters, but maybe you or someone else may be able to answer this question. While researching, I could not find anything out on why Zach Hobby is no longer on the team. He kicked for 2 years at Delaware (’05 & ’06), took ’07 off and transferred, and was listed as a RS Junior last year. So he should have one year of eligibility left. What happened?
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Continuation
1) Punting stats were pretty much a wash with Gano, Powell, except the piining aspect
2) Kicking will be the area of concern here, with the loss of Gano, Agreed though that the #1 kicker is potentially equal in abilitly,albeit, only potentially (if ,he starts this year)
3) Returns shoul be (Are you kidding me, we only forced 17 punts all last year?) at least as good,both have some experience and speed is comparable, except for Garvin
4) Coverage-I have to agree with K-man that coverage should be better with mproved strength to fight off blocks, speed to get down field.
Overall i’d say even, slight regression
looking beyond the numbers
1) Gano was always a threat for a fake punt with his athleticism. This will be a drop-off with Powell.
3) I haven’t looks at the stats, but 17 returns doesn’t mean 17 total opponent punts. Touchbacks, kicks out of bounds, and non-fielded punts aren’t included.
by The K-Man on Aug 9, 2009 1:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The K-Man or anyone else. Today's trivia question which should be easy for you.
A) In what game did Gano run a fake punt on 4th down while gaining 24 yards and a big first down?
2) In what game did Gano lose 8 yards and under what circumstances?
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
realnole1128,
1) I was a little surprised that Powell’s average last year was as good as it was. But Gano was great with those coffin corner kicks and only 15 of his 22 punts were returned.
3) I apologize for the incomplete stats on punt returns. We actually had 24, but I cut it off where I thought it mattered. The complete stats for both punt returns and kickoff returns have now been posted in their entirety.
4) If you read Hopkins bio above, you will see he averaged 73 yards on kickoffs in HS, so it looks like he has a strong leg and this should also help the coverage, along with your and Des’ points about strength.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
I voted Regression, but we'll still have a better than average special teams unit
I mean, Gano was amazing and everything but no one expected him to do nearly as good as he did, especially after that injury he had. Hopkins could easily come in and not skip a beat. He most likely won’t, though, mostly because he might just not be as lucky (3-4 of Gano’s kicks last year were downright unfair) but if he can get pretty close to that we’ll be fine.
As far as kick and punt returns, we will definitely miss MRG, but we always have plenty of talent back there. None will have the straight speed Garvin had, but all of them will have more moves to maybe break one.
pbysh, Gano's recovery was spectacular. I remember thinking that maybe he was coming back too soon,
especially when he missed the first one against Wake, albeit it was a 52 yarder. My fears were soon put at ease however.
Garvin’s 30 yd avg was pretty impressive and the 94 yard return against Colo. was a thing of beauty, although most of the credit has to be given to the blockers who opened up some unbelievable lanes for him.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
I think it would be possible to progress this year
since our coverage was weak last year and we didn’t do anything special on returns. That being said, there hasn’t been any evidence of a change yet, and Gano is irreplacible. Regression.
OH YEAAHH!
Another issue
is the lack of linebacker depth. That impacts special teams. But we’ll be able to use a lot of young dbs – so more speed but not the size. Will be interesting to see how return coverage turns out as a result, as well as blocking for the returners without the number of linebackers to play.
Good point. The size will be missing on the wedge busters and on the wedge formers/blockers.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
No offense to Tony Carter
But our punt return game will be taking a step forward now that he is gone. I think someone will be able to step in and be a decent replacement for Michael Ray Garvin in the kick return game, we may be shocked and have them actually be better (doubt it but who knows). Although Tony Carter was fast, he wasn’t always a natural with the ball in his hands like Greg Reid or Bert Reed.
I expect Reid or Reed will do very well for the reasons you stated.
Bert Reed actually had a better average if you back out Carter’s 68 yard return (which I know is not really fair). Without the 68 yarder, Carter’s avg drops to 6.4, while Reed remains at 7.9. I think G. Reid will be exciting to watch also.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
I thought there just picked up like 5 or 6 guys this year that we could put back there.
I dont think finding a p and K retuner wiil be a problem someone will come throw. I think the problem will be getting people to cover on the punt team and Kickoff team. We need to improve there.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
this is why
fewer of those defensive back signees will redshirt than some of us may think. They are needed on coverage.
by Wild@Heart Nole on Aug 10, 2009 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions
All I want to see from the coverage team this year is a FF and at least 2 big hits
I would love to see them in the GT and UNC game.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Judging by Hopkins high school tape
He has the leg to put it out of the end zone.
Kick off line further back in college?
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Aug 11, 2009 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Regardless, if he average 73 yards per KO in HS, he has got a thunder leg.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Oh I concur sir.
Here’s to many, MANY touch backs.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Aug 11, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
my thoughts
1) Place kicking will obviously be worse- I believe Jimbo has stated that he intends to rely less upon the kicking game and that losing Gano will affect his decision making…all of which I speculated on in my placekicking preview :)
2) I thought our most active special teams players on coverage were the two Nigels (excluding givens running down benjamin in the miami game over and over), and not just because they liked to jump around before the kickoff. It will be interesting to see how much time they get on kick coverage-especially bradham. Coverage duty has an increased risk of injury, and we simply cannot afford for NB to go down in that type of situation.
3) Some of the problems in kickoff coverage can be masked if hopkins has the leg. Gano only handled 37 of the 87 kickoffs last season, and averaged 62.57 yards/ attempt, with 24% of his tries going for touchbacks. When Esco was kicking, he averaged 59.5 yards/attempt with only 4% of his tries going for touchbacks (he also had two kickoffs go out of bounds).
62.57 yards/attempt (gano’s numbers) would have been good for 50th best in the nation. But with Esco’s weaker leg, and with Esco having the majority of kickoff attempts, FSU finished 82nd in yards/kickoff.
Gano’s touchback percentage (had he kicked off every game) would have been good for 18th best in the country. Interestingly, Utah (with Louie Sakoda, who was Gano’s competition for the Lou Groza award), had a 48% touchback ratio) and USC was the best with 54.5% of their kickoffs stopping in the endzone.
The disconnect is obviously kick coverage. Touchbacks are going to be the key.
4) Overall, I voted for continuation. However, I don’t think any one area is going to be the same. I think we will attempt less field goals, and may score slightly more points in the process by being more aggressive. I also think we will improve upon our combined 12.64% touchback ratio, which will improve our overall ranking on yards/kickoff. I don’t know if we will be better than 50th in the nation (which is what gano’s numbers would have put fsu at). Also, I neglected the return game, but I see us as better on punts, and the same or slightly worse on kickoff returns (i would say much worse on kickoffs if garvin could have just stayed in bounds a couple of times!)
Good stuff, but IMO especially your point on #2 about NB getting injured. As hard as it will be, we should leave all the starting LB on the bench for the KO's.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
I think we will
unless it is a critical situation in a close game, where the coverage has been terrible.
Old School
I think remember seeing Rod Owens in on a lot stops on kick-off returns. It seemed like if Givens didn’t nab the returner, Owens was our second best chance.
by The K-Man on Aug 11, 2009 2:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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