FSU's first lost is Fool's gold
by nextlevel on Sep 10, 2009 1:11 AM EDT
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PrintI've been looking at the posts by members saying that the season is over, that we're going 7-5 and some people are talking 6-6 or worst. This is all based on not an season ending injury to someone like Ponder or some other irreplaceable player, its based on one bad game by the defense against a very prepared and talented team in Miami in a rival game. True this was a very tough loss to swallow but for people not to see the silver lining in this is very short-sighted. People that are hoping off the bandwagon and predicting disaster is mind boggling to me. That was a game played by two talented teams with a lot of emotion and it must be taken as such. It should be looked at in isolation, not an example of how the defense will do in every game going forward. If you are predicting FSU's future based on this game then you are buying Fool's gold and most co-coordinators would not put this game in the context of that is the team they will see. Although I called for the resignation of MA myself right after the game, I have been advocating that for two years. I think his decreased effectiveness regarding recruiting and strategy along with the lack of halftime adjustments in big games has adversely affected FSU and put an inordinate amount of pressure on the offense to outscore everyone since 2001. He called another bad game, simple as that. That said, we are stuck with him. So we'll move on.
I remember when FSU lost two games at the start of the season and then reeled off 10 straight wins while beating the Nittany Lions in the Blockbuster Bowl. So don't tell me it can;'t be done especially considering the offense we have, the speed on defense and the teams on the schedule without the necessary components to take advantage of our weaknesses. This team reminds me of that team a lot. By the time FSU plays the teams that everyone is saying will wipe the floor with us, they will have righted the ship. We are slowly getting back to the way it used to be in that aspect. If you're going to beat FSU, do it early, because its really hard to do it late in the season. This year will be no different as the offense will be scary by that time and the defense will be somewhat solid.
First and foremost, let's address the defense seeing how this is the performance that most impacted posters opinion of FSU football going forward this year.
1) The pass defense: Andrews aside, instead of looking how bad the defense played, give Whipple huge credit for passing through out the game on first down with play action and roll-outs. That was a master stroke that really confused MA. He had a lot of time because the Noles couldn't really blitz on first down as they had to respect the running game and Whipple knew it. Give Harris credit from learning from his mistakes and not repeating them. He handled the pressure very well and it looks like Whipple is their version of JF in making their QB and whole offense better. Also give credit to the effectiveness of Miami's line. They are good and they weren't expected to be.
That said, the Noles pass defense will not be torched like this again this year in this way. There is a really small chance they will give up yards like this again looking at the QB competition they will face in the next nine games and virtually no chance to give up the same amount of points related to the passing game. If you look at the schedule objectively and without bias (good or bad) there isn't a good QB on the schedule (besides Tebow) that can put up those numbers and there isn't a team that has the collection of speed and height in their WR corps that can remotely match Miami. Additionally, what OC on the schedule can really call a game like that? Maybe Meyer? Johnson will do his damage on the ground but that definitely won't be enough to offset their lack of their passing game, experience on the defensive line and increased motivation to shut down the run by the Noles as pay back for last season.
The fans are forgetting that the Noles probably played the worst game they will play this season. I don't think they will ever play that bad again this season or even come close. Everyone are calling them losers and I feel that they will come out swinging to prove to people that they are a good unit or at least better than what they have shown. I feel they will play better as the season progresses as will the offense. Even if they have a have another clunker I guarantee we will win that game because the offense will be better and the damage won't be as severe as Saturday's game. MA will make some needed personnel changes and the players will be more motivated. To be fair to Andrews he did have a new wrinkle that was effective. He will probably put more in as the season progresses and you will see much better performance as well.
2) Run defense: We held the Canes to a little over 90 yards rushing. That's not bad as I think if they saw a real weakness in our run game they would have exploited more. They passed more than they wanted to because they saw it was going to be a tough time running for them and they adjusted. Whipple chose the path of least resistance which what good OC's do. Our run defense will be tested against such teams as GT, UNC and Clemson. But none of those teams have a credible passing attack. This is why I say this loss is fool's gold because the coordinators aren't stupid enough to just go into the game passing the ball when they know FSU would've made changes in personnel and strategy regarding the pass defense. They are also not going to go into the game passing risking turning over the ball and have short possessions given their QB's are either inexperienced, not great passers or lack the receivers to take advantage of the weaker than normal pass rush of the Noles. They have to protect their defense from the beast that is the Nole offense and give themselves a chance to win the game. I personally think the run defense will be ok but you can't tell from the Miami game. If we stuff BYU's power running game then I think we'll be ok.
3) Special Teams: The special teams are below average and its no way to say it otherwise. BUT, they are not bad enough to cost us games. In the most important area, the kicking game I think we have found the next Bentley. Hopkins has a big leg and most important: CONFIDENCE. This is an area on the whole because of Hopkins will win us games or not hurt us instead of lose us games as previously thought. I'm disappointed in the punting but overall I'm not worried. Remember, Miami has some serious speed and only Clemson can match them with Ford. But he is not as special as Benjamin is by any stretch. This is an area that can be improved somewhat via some coaching this year and mostly recruiting next year.
4) The offense: I said at the early part of this year that Ponder is the key to the whole team and whether the TE will be used. This offense will be so good its scary. Its going to make the defense job so much easier as there isn't one defense that can hold us under thirty on the schedule IF we execute like I know we can (and that's including UF). Once Forston becomes more confident (and he will) they will be unstoppable as Jones really stepped it up and showed we still are a serious running team when we have to be. Ponder is the best player in the ACC. SCARY.
Now here is the question: What remaining teams on this schedule have 1) the speed on defense to stop the offense 2) the speed, skill level, good QB and OC in Whipple's class to beat us (excluding UF)? Because that's exactly what its going to take to beat us this year. The Canes played I think the best they could play under the circumstances but the Noles DIDN'T and they still barely won. The Canes didn't win the game, we lost it as we controlled our own destiny. For us to go 8-4 or 7-5 you're saying that the three best remaining teams (Clemson, UNC and GT respectively) one with no experienced at all QB, one with no WR's and one with a limited passing game will all put up 500 yards on the Noles? I'm sorry, I'm not buying it at all.
Bottom line is we have an unstoppable offense like UF had last year, an ok defense and an overrated schedule. That doesn't equate to 8-4 or 7-5 to me and it shouldn't to you either. But, we'll see who is right and who is wrong.
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NextLevel, I really enjoyed this.
No sarcasm. The arguments were for the most part logical and not just knee-jerk as some people have been on both sides of the argument.
+1
I don’t think people have taken time to consider how much of it was Miami being good as well. There were definitely positives to take away from the game, but you can always count on people to be pissed enough to give their initial raw responses (myself included)
Miami being good remains to be seen
I would like to believe we just played a top fifteen defense and that our offense was just too good to be stopped. But if their offense doesn’t come close to equaling the numbers they put up on us, If they can’t score more points on Oklahoma than BYU, then we may have a problem.
http://s825.photobucket.com/albums/zz178/unclefestus/
Gonzo, +1. I am not yet convinced that UM is all we made them out to be either. Just because they beat a equally mediocre team (FSU), I am not ready to ordain them anything, not yet anyway.
This is just wrong.
They passed more than they wanted to because they saw it was going to be a tough time running for them and they adjusted.
They came out passing and did not stop because we could not stop their passing attack, especially on first. We each only punted 4 times, so neither team could stop the other. The biggest difference is that their offense scored 5 touchdowns (FIVE) and ours only scored 3.
As far as holding them to 90 yards rushing, that was because they did not have to run due to them throwing for a ridiculous amount every first down they had. First down is a traditional running down, but why bother running when you can throw for that kind of yardage on first. The problem was we did not adjust on first downs and they kept doing it all game because it was successful. On top of that they averaged 7.4 yards per play, and that is what concerns me most about the rest of the season.
When this game was set as the opener, I had mixed feelings. I did not like facing Um not knowing what their new OC and DC would bring to the table. But I liked that it would give us time to rebound if we should lose, which I never expected we would. So here’s hoping we can pull off a respectable season and put this miserable night behind us.
Don’t get me wrong, I am hoping for the best, and I don’t mind your optimism at all, I just think you need to mix in a dose of reality every now and then in your posts.
However now that your prediction of going into the swamp undefeated is not possible, I also do not expect to be going in at 10-1. I would love for it to happen, but taint gonna happen bubba.
"But I'm funny how? I mean, funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh... I'm here to f**kin' amuse you?" -Goodfellas
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
by FrankDNole on Sep 10, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And I will give you credit for, at least in this post, not making a asinine statement that MA should be fired during the season and after one game and CTC taking over. Good call if you want to be taken seriously here.
"But I'm funny how? I mean, funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh... I'm here to f**kin' amuse you?" -Goodfellas
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Frank, totally agree
The defense isn’t going to get much better because the players simply aren’t very good. Dekoda Watson is a late 2nd rounder at best.
by Bud Elliott on Sep 10, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Good post
I agree with everything you’re saying here but I’m still worried about the defensive line. They could rush the passer so good last year with Moffet and Brown… no one wanted to drop back and throw because they were going to get their QB hurt and/or possibly scared for life (the poor Maryland QB got the worst of it). So that might have inflated the stats in making our rush defense last year seem worse than it was. Not saying it was great or anything still.
But if we can’t get a pass rush, we are in for a long season. I know one thing is for sure, getting routed like that on defense is going to make MA and all the players more determined to do better. I sure hope they do.
Just a small thing
I remember when FSU lost two games at the start of the season and then reeled off 10 straight wins while beating the Nittany Lions in the Blockbuster Bowl.
The 2 straight losses was at the beginning of the 1989 season (So. Miss and Clemson) which ended with us winning 10 straight games and beating Nebraska in the bowl (Fiesta Bowl), and we played PSU in the Blockbuster Bowl following the 1990 season.
As a side note the 1990 season was the last one without a New Year’s Day bowl game or later for 15 straight years (ended in 2006 when we played UCLA in the Emerald Bowl).
argh, meant to do the block quote just for the first sentence
let’s try that again:
I remember when FSU lost two games at the start of the season and then reeled off 10 straight wins while beating the Nittany Lions in the Blockbuster Bowl.
The 2 straight losses was at the beginning of the 1989 season (So. Miss and Clemson) which ended with us winning 10 straight games and beating Nebraska in the bowl (Fiesta Bowl), and we played PSU in the Blockbuster Bowl following the 1990 season.
As a side note the 1990 season was the last one without a New Year’s Day bowl game or later for 15 straight years (ended in 2006 when we played UCLA in the Emerald Bowl).
Southern Miss with Brett Favre at QB
I was at that game and he was phenomenal.
http://s825.photobucket.com/albums/zz178/unclefestus/
re: the run D
I have reservations about the run D because while Miami didn’t have “great numbers” overall, to me they were effective running the ball.
Why I say this is because they kept our D honest with the threat of the run, despite the fact that they didn’t break off any long runs.
In addition (and more importantly) they seemed to convert every short yardage situational run on 3rd or 4th down. So by eg. getting 2 yards when you need 1 hurts the average per carry, it helps the team because they get to keep the ball by converting the first down.
+1
UM ran just enough to use play action. Why run when your gaining 20+ yards on 1st down via the pass for WHOLE game…
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
good point and
if you remember the first few series of the game for Miami, they ran some screens for good yardage. This no doubt made our DEs and linebackers more tentative on pass rush and pursuit.
by montverdenole on Sep 10, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
They could have run had they wanted to
But yeah, 20 yards a play throwing on 1st down is hard to pass up.
Swagger, Intensity, Execution
Well he could be right
I hope he is right but right now our defensive backs need some serious refocus. If they play like they did the other night Perrilloux State will light us up. 20 yards a pass play or there about is over the top.
I will throw out some food for thought however. What if Miami runs it’s next 3 games taking down Georgia Tech, VT and Oklahoma? It is not probable they win all three of those but what if they do? They are going to drag FSU up the polls with them provided we keep winning.
The Miami Georgia Tech game will tell us quite a bit. Of course if Miami handles Tech that is no sign FSU will as Mickey probably will still have no idea how to stop them.
Playstation All American, right again!
TomahawkNation
Better to bear the rebuke of the wise than to hear the song of fools
Good post, Doc
We’re going to find out a lot in the coming weeks. It really is too early to tell very much. I can’t agree or disagree with nextlevel because we don’t know just how good Miami is. We know how good our offense looked, and how bad our defense looked. That’s about it. However, there is absolutely nothing to make be agree with nextlevel on his statement “this is probably the worst game FSU will play all year.” We don’t know that at all.
Swagger, Intensity, Execution
First post...
Hello, everyone! I have been reading your site for months (check-in multiple times per day – you guys are nothing short of incredible!), but until now I have stayed away from posting. I could not resist this time because I am that impressed. By name and writing style, Nextlevel is a poster that is easily recognizable from reading nolesports.com forums (I’ve never posted there, or anywhere else, either.) over the last several months. From those forums, his intelligence is undeniable, but he would repeatedly lose all credibiltiy by coming up with some outlandish theory/statement (I can’t count the number of times he said Ponder was better than Tebow), then challenging the posters who disagreed to a fight, or stating they disagreed with him because they were racist. It went from comical to annoying. I also saw how he got on here a couple of times with something crazy, but was quickly riddled full of holes like swiss cheese. However, this post shows that when he is thinking conservatively and without emotion, he is as insightful and on point as anyone. Cheers to you, Nextlevel! I just wish that the majority of our FSU brethren would realize, as this site’s population does, that Jimbo was handed a program in absolute SHAMBLES. I think he and Trickett are doing a truly remarkable job considering the garbage they got. 7-6 and 9-4 should be equated to two undefeated years with the crap they got: 2 legends more out of date with modern football and 18 – 22 year-old kids than Tom Landry when the Cowboys ran him off, THE WORST ST coach in Major College Football (how do people not see this? Are ST’s are f-ing gross!!!!!), and of course the lingering effects of the worst hire at a Major College Football Program. I do not give names because Stevie Wonder could SEE who I am speaking of. I really believe we are going to have a good year, in spite of the awful D/ST situation we are in – Jimbo and Trickett are that good! Anyways, sorry for the long post, but if it’s going to be once a year, I guess I need to make the most of it!!!!
Also, FSUn and SWFL, what parts of SWFL are you from? I grew up in Cape Coral, graduated from Cape Coral High School in 1995.
Welcome!
Grew up in South Fort Myers, FMHS c/o 2003
I love that you recognize Trickett. He is so key to this operation.
by Bud Elliott on Sep 10, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Originally Ft.Myers
Moved to Punta Gorda when I was real young. Charlotte High School c/o 2004.
Lived right next to the Punta Gorda/Cape line and worked in Cape for a spell.
How can a loss be "fool's gold"?
I don’t think you are using the correct cliche/analogy here. Fool’s gold is when someone thinks that they have something of value but they really don’t. Are you saying that FSU is worse than the way they played?
I do agree that Whipple called a great game. As FSUn pointed out in his Raycom article, Whipple called numerous pass plays on first down. Harris and his receivers did a great job of executing. After watching the first half again last night, two things really hit home: 1) Harris made some excellent throws down the field – over linebackers and leaping FSU defenders at times, 2) UM’s receivers made some excellent catches in traffic on a couple of the plays.
I think we need a few more games though before we start crowning Whipple as the new OC of the year. Likewise, let’s not proclaim this to be the worst Andrews defense ever until they’ve played a couple of games.
It seems like everyone is coming back down to earth.
None of us were expecting to win a NC this year or anything so it’s not the end of the world to take a loss the first game of the year. I understand we all want the best from the team but realistically getting to the ACC CG would be a sterling accomplishment. Maybe I’m underreacting but I’m just going to enjoy the ride this year and see what happens.
I find it hard to believe
there won’t be some serious adjustments made on D over the next two weeks that should make a big difference.
Looks like one serious adjustment is that Greg Reid will be playing more
"The best football player on the field might have been a freshman.We’ve just got to get him further along so he can play on our base defense. … He’s just a playmaker. We’ve got some guys that go out there and play a whole ballgame and never make any plays. They just give up plays. We’ll play a freshman on Saturday if we have to; to get the production we need there." – Mickey Andrews
Thanks, guys!
FSUn, I’m guessing you were in that IB program at FMHS since you probably lived out of district – an indicator of the Law School thing now. Good stuff, man!
Anyways, I go back and forth on the greater impact/importance debate of Trickett vs. Jimbo and have fallen squarely on the end result that they have equally had as positive an influence on rescuing FSU from spiraling too far out of control. I truly believe that the average person has no clue how bad we were when they arrived. People like to quote the cyclical argument, which does have solid roots. However, we had no foundation left to build back out of a down point of a cycle, potentially leaving us there for years. In comes the Jimbo/Trickett regime, and I really do not feel I am being a Homer when I say that we are close! I think Coley has made an enormous impact, as well – but what else would you expect from a guy that Jimbo got the opportunity to hand-pick? Imagine how good a D-Coordinator we get should Jimbo be given the same choosing power??? We’re close!!! Just a little more patience, all, and we’ll be fine!
Yep, IB
Didn’t get my degree, however, because my spanish was horrible, as was my photography.
Without Trickett or Jimbo we would not be where we are. The most important thing now is to recruit a lot of defensive players, maybe as many as 19
by Bud Elliott on Sep 10, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Well...
If you think that UF has a really good shot to beat FSU then you are only talking two of those teams you list having to beat FSU for an 8-4 season. Why didn’t GT and BYU make the list? Now you are looking at just two of those 5 being able to torch the defense. I’m going to say there is a VERY strong possiblity that 2 of those teams have a shot at doing that. Sadly the adjustments that need to be made on defense are more/different players and better coaching. FSU only has a chance of fixing half of that this year. While I am very excited about the offense I don’t know if it is unstoppable. They are good, but I don’t know if they will be good enough to make up for the defense and win 9 games in the regular season. But hey, I enjoy optimism. Who knows. We will see, as you say. The Nole’s go up to Provo and Hold Maxy under 350 yrds passing and pull out a W…then maybe I’ll say FSU is golden.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
Max Hall
The QB of BYU could very well have a field day against our secondary.
Speed is a great asset; but it's greater when it's combined with quickness - and there's a big difference.
- Ty Cobb
However, a lot will depend on the D-line, our biggest concern.
A good secondary goes hand in hand with a good D-line.
Speed is a great asset; but it's greater when it's combined with quickness - and there's a big difference.
- Ty Cobb
Absolutely. I expect him to carve us up
We need to stop their run game so that PA isn’t a big threat, and then score on offense.
by Bud Elliott on Sep 10, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
i think our d-line will get pressure on byu
their line isnt that incredible, if we get pressure, he wont have time to pick us apart like jacory.
"theres two types of people in this world, those who CARRY a spear and those who FEAR the spear"-James Coley
Lol a line doesn't have to be anywhere near incredible to stop our D-line
Swagger, Intensity, Execution
lol well if you dont believe in progress
thats your prerogative, but i believe in moving forward in believing.
i watched the game 3 full times, could be considered almost 6 when you include goin back 3 times after every play, and i seen potential to improve in my own personal opinion.
"theres two types of people in this world, those who CARRY a spear and those who FEAR the spear"-James Coley
jenkins too
played a lil undisciplined on one of miamis reverses, but he showed with coaching and reps i think he will be one of next line of great de’s.
"theres two types of people in this world, those who CARRY a spear and those who FEAR the spear"-James Coley
They call it the WALL, and freshmen usually hit it by November.
Just like rookies in the NFL, they hit the WALL also usually by late November.
"But I'm funny how? I mean, funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh... I'm here to f**kin' amuse you?" -Goodfellas
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
I don't believe our DLine will get better. I expect them to get worse
and wear down as the season goes on. No quality depth. They could get much much worse actually.
and another thing i wanna touch on
is nextlevels opening line, there were people on these threads sounding like they gave up after one game?? ready to throw the towel in and call it a season.
sounds pretty bandwagonish to me, the biggest reason why its called “bandwagon” is because it refers to people hoping on while things are moving, but if you break down the real meaning to bandwagon it refers that things ARE moving, and it symbolizes a ride, the season will be a ride, you cant give up after one game that we were in! it wasnt 38-0, we lost by 4 and had the chance to win, what we need to do is tribe together as fans, and continue unrelentless suport for the team, at the games instead of grumbling and moaning cuz we went 3 &out just continue to believe, lets cheer harder for our team, because thats when they need you the most, not after touchdowns, but when we’re in a fight.
*ends rant
"theres two types of people in this world, those who CARRY a spear and those who FEAR the spear"-James Coley
yea i think so too
and i was prepared for a couple big plays myself, i told my sister before the game with miami “having a new oc and us having a depleted defense they could put up some points, they could trim the playbook down just for the first game, say couple dozen base plays that they can run with their eyes closed with those kind of athletes, out of those couple dozen i would expect they could score off 4-5, you lookin at 28-35 righ there” (and as we all know they scored 38).
but idk alot of people had this talk as if they couldnt care less if they watched another game thsi season.
"theres two types of people in this world, those who CARRY a spear and those who FEAR the spear"-James Coley
OK, so let me put this question out there:
Who is going to be our new DC next year?
I know we’ve tlaked about this before, but have the prospects changed in the last six months?
I'm applying for the job. I encourage you to do the same.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 10, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I have hit a wall myself
Listening to BB’s bullo44tgt4g0
Playstation All American, right again!
TomahawkNation
Better to bear the rebuke of the wise than to hear the song of fools
What are your expectations?
I think it is time to step back and decide if the expectations for this team remain either competing for an NC every year or at least a 10 win season. If so, the team needs to start playing well enough to meet those expectations, which they really have not done since the 90s (maybe recruit better players?). If the expectations are not that high, fine; quit living in the past and “partying like it’s 1999.” Then, accept the fact that this team is what the sports media think it is, just another team, nothing special. I’m just sayin that to meet high expectations, change has got to happen and I think you know what I mean.
Old School Nole
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