For Entertainment Purposes Only- Week 4: What do we really know? 96- 76 (56%), +14.52 Units
by Bud Elliott on Sep 24, 2009 3:49 PM EDT
in FSU Football
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PrintNote: We use this column to examine the college football landscape and the weekend ahead. The use of gambling numbers helps to show the public perception of a team and of their respective conferences. Even if you don't gamble, or are against gambling, this is worth a read solely because it will keep you informed of the happenings with many of college football's teams. Think of this as your weekend primer!
Welcome to another edition of For Entertainment Purposes Only! Last year, this rather informal column went 251-190 (57%) +41.0 That's 251 wins and 190 losses for a winning percentage of 57%. If you were wagering $100 fake dollars per game, you would have netted $4100 at season's end. But since these are fake wagers, we refer to our wager amount as "units." First though, a disclaimer:
I want to emphasize that we don't endorse gambling at this site, and anything on here is for entertainment purposes only. Always check with your local, state, or federal laws to determine the legality of wagering.
First we discussed some wagers for conference and division winners. Since then, the odds on Clemson have gone from +1000 to +300, and Ole Miss went from +350 to +200. No odds went against our decisions. Then we went over season win totals. Vegas set the number, we called it over or under! In Week 1 we went 20-24 (45%), -6.3 Units. Week 2 we went 39-22 (63%), +16.32 Units. Last week was 34-27. +4.50 (+5.7 College, -1.2 NFL). For the season, we sit at 96- 76 (56%), +14.52 Units. If we finish at 56% over 500 selections, we'll be absolutely elated. We like to play a lot of games to grind out the variance. The swings over 500 games aren't nearly as dramatic as they are over 100. It's as simple as grinding out the sample set.
I didn't really have a theme for this week, so I figured "what do we really know" might work. Let's check it out.
A shorter column this week, for a number of reasons.
As you know, the opening lines come out Sunday evening. Here's what I hit on the opening lines. Remember, I bet these with movement in mind. Lines will change. If I think a line won't go in my favor, I won't hit it.
Note: PFM= play for middle, where I make the wager with the intent of betting both sides and winning both with a middle.
| So Carolina +4.5 | Ole Miss is overrated, and haven't played anyone. |
| Nevada +8 | I still trust the Wolfpack at home |
| Wake +3 | BC's offense is horrible, and Wake has a competent QB. PFM |
| Minnesota +2 | I am thoroughly unimpressed with Northwestern. |
| Wisconsin -1.5 | Michigan State just lost two soul crushing games in a row, will they be up? I say no. |
| Boise State -14 | PFM, Boise is hugely public. |
| Iowa State -9 | Army is a bit overrated. |
| Memphis -2.5 | PFM, people don't trust Marshal. |
| So Miss +14 | Kansas is overrated and Southern Miss can play with them. Tempted to say USM wins. |
| Rice +8.5 | Vanderbilt is quite bad and now has to travel to Texas in an obvious lookahead game. |
| Florida -23 | UT tried to milk the clock in the 3Q last week so the Gators wouldn't blow them out. |
| Georgia -12 | AzSt is a bit overrated. Played this thinking it would go to -14 or more, and it has not. Stuck with it. |
| North Carolina +3 | UNC's DT tandem wins it this weekend. |
| NCST PK | NC State has had two weeks to prep for this game and I trust Russel Wilson. |
| Stanford -6.5 | Perfect setup for a Washington letdown. Washington should have beat LSU and lost to USC. Everyone is way too high on them now. |
| Miami (OH) +9 | PFM- want it to go to +6.5 |
| Utah -12 | PFM. Louisville lost their game of the year last week and now must face Utah in a cross country matchup. If it this hits a big number like +17, I'll play Louisville. |
| Purdue +8 | Notre Dame won't be up to play this and Purdue was looking ahead to their super bowl last week. |
| Houston PK | Houston is legit, TTech is off a letdown from last weekend. |
| New Mexico -8 | NMST isn't very good. Possible PFM |
| Oregon St +3 | PFM (and I got it- see below) |
| FAU -5 | I don't trust UL Monroe, but treat lightly on Sunbelt action. |
| Nebraska -26.5 | PFM, but comfortable with holding here. |
| Navy -26.5 | PFM, but comfortable holding here. |
| Arkansas State -1 | I don't trust Troy on the road. |
| MTSU -7 | This one scares me, but I am holding it as I don't buy North Texas |
| FSU -13 | Purely a PFM |
| Miami -1 | Miami is hugely public, PFM |
| Oregon +7.5 | Oregon- PFM |
| TCU +3 | PFM, Clemson has swine flu |
| USC -43 | Washington State is horrible |
| Minnesota/ Nwestern Over 48 | Neither team plays defense |
| TCU/ Clemson Under 42.5 | Both teams play defense |
| UNC/ Gtech Under 46.5 | Neither offense is special |
| Ariz/ Oregon State Under 44 | New QB for Zone, and Mike Riley is a good defense coach. |
| Cal -5 | The other side of the middle. |
| Boston College +1 | The other side of the Middle. |
| Illinois +14.5 | Ohio State is too public, Illinois knows their defense |
| Temple -2.5 | Not a fan of Buffalo |
| Bowling Green +17 | Nice middle shot with my Boise -14 |
| Ohio +24 (-114) | Tennessee is overrated and Ohio can stick around. |
| ECU -10 | Not many believers in ECU, I am one |
| Cincinatti -16.5 | Fresno gives up huge plays |
| Marshal +3.5 | The other side of my middle (-2.5 +3.5) |
| UAB +14.5 | Texas A&M is banged up |
| SDST +17 | Air Force is too high here |
| Wyoming +4 (+100) | Nice price! |
| USF +14.5 | Here it is. i think FSU struggles, middle shot. |
| USF +14.5 | Again, doubling up to counteract the FSU wager. |
| ColSt +17 | Good OLine works a banged up BYU squad. |
| Vtech +3 | The other side of my Miami middle |
| Vtech +3 | The other side of my Miami middle |
| Iowa/PSU under 41 | Too many people expect a shootout, but two inexperienced offensive lines. |
| Arizona +3 -115 | Other side of the middle. |
| WKU +28.5 (-105) | Worst team in 1A, but Navy laying 4 touchdowns? |
Okay, they are. Sorry for the lack of long explanations.
Here's NFL:
| Titans +8.5/ Seattle +8.5 | 6pt Even Money teaser (+100) |
| Titans +8.5/ Denver +7.5 | 6pt Even Money teaser (+100) |
| Titans +8.5/ Indy +8 | 6pt Even Money teaser (+100) |
| Titans +8.5/ Dallas -2.5 | 6pt Even Money teaser (+100) |
| Seattle +8.5/ Denver +7.5 | 6pt Even Money teaser (+100) |
| Seattle +8.5/ Indy +8 | 6pt Even Money teaser (+100) |
| Seattle +8.5/ Dallas -2.5 | 6pt Even Money teaser (+100) |
| Denver +7.5/ Indy +7.5 | 6pt Even Money teaser (+100) |
| Denver +7.5/ Dallas -2.5 | 6pt Even Money teaser (+100) |
| Indy +8/ Dallas -2.5 | 6pt Even Money teaser (+100) |
| Zona -1 | Anti-Public |
| Oakland PK | Anti-Public |
| San Diego -6 | Anti-Public |
| Buf +6 | Anti-Public |
| Wash -6 | Anti-Public |
| NYJ -2 | Anti-Public |
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56%!! You're off to a solid start
Ones I like:
- Ark +17.5 at Bama (I’ll Bobby Petrino and almost 3 TDs, QB Mallet will give Bama defense a real test)
- Houston -1 vs. TT (UH has had two weeks to prepare, TT going on road back to back weeks off rivalry game loss)
- Iowa +10 at Penn St (Iowa is 7-1 ATS last 8 road games, underdog is 7-1 ATS)
- UNC +2.5 at GT (seems like wrong team is favored here, UNC DL should be too much for GT, GT is 3-7-1 ATS at home last 11 games)
by FtLauderdaleNole on Sep 24, 2009 4:03 PM EDT reply actions
Okay, devils advocate
I am pissed about Bama. I thought that would move to -14. I have them winning by 21+, but I got greedy. Arkansas might have the worst defense in the ACC (seriously).
Iowa scares me because nobody likes Penn State.
UNC is a ranked underdog… uh-oh. You know the stats on that, I assume.
Also, I do not like the ATS trends, I think books put those out there to encourage bets. To each their own and good luck!
FSUn, here is the ridiculous question of the week, one that I have been wanting to ask you since you started this series.
You say,
Last year, this rather informal column went 251-190 (57%) +41.0 That’s 251 wins and 190 losses for a winning percentage of 57%. If you were wagering $100 fake dollars per game, you would have netted $4100 at season’s end.
The way my simple mind looks at this, is the differential between 251-190 is +61.0, not +41.0, therefore you would have netted $6100.
Please explain where I am going wrong.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Sure, and not ridiculous at all.
Assuming -110 odds, you have to bet 110 to win net 100. It’s the house fee, or the vigorish if you will.
That’s why when there are different odds, as with Ohio (had to pay 114 to net 100), or Wyoming (only had to wager 100 to net 100), I note that. Otherwise, -110 is assumed.
OK-gotcha. Kinda like the cut I as a pimp, get from my ho's, but on a smaller scale.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
I think Frank's girls
need to give out a lot of freebies to drum up business.
When the hoes don’t even look average, it’s tough. Especially given the economy….
Plays of the week
Miami -130
GT -130
Sucks being against ya on UNC. But we’ll see how it goes. May the best man win :P
Maybe I'm retarded
But how do you “PFM” and what is the deal with the NFL picks, Titans listed 4 times for example…
Sure,
PFM is play for a middle. for instance, last week I took Ball State +8, the line went to Army -6, so I bet that, and Army won by 7, so I won both wagers.
The NFL stuff, that’s a 6 point teaser, I’m teasing tennessee with multiple games.
Thanks!
Whats the best place to find how the public is betting (so i can bet against them:)
Regarding the PFM’s. Are you just saying “IF” the line moves then bet both sides and if it doesn’t move then just stay away from that game? Also, does it matter how much the line moves when you are deciding whether and/or how much to bet? Seems risky, espcially if it only moves two points, not much room for error! And you would have to pay the juice twice on what is essentially one bet. Does it really pay off in the long run? If so, is there one place where you can see all of the spread activity? I would imagine to bet PFM’s you would have to make bets on dozens of different sites because the spreads differ from site to site.
Thanks in adavace. Sorry for so many questions but I’m intrigued and my strategy of getting drunk and picking teams based on Phil Steele’s preview has been less than steller so far, lol.
Sportsinsights.com
You’re exactly right
Regarding the PFM’s. Are you just saying "IF" the line moves then bet both sides and if it doesn’t move then just stay away from that game?
When I say PFM, I mean that I bet that game with the anticipation that it would move.
Also, does it matter how much the line moves when you are deciding whether and/or how much to bet? Seems risky, espcially if it only moves two points, not much room for error! And you would have to pay the juice twice on what is essentially one bet. Does it really pay off in the long run?
it all matters how big of a move and what key numbers it moved over, such as 3 or 7
If so, is there one place where you can see all of the spread activity? I would imagine to bet PFM’s you would have to make bets on dozens of different sites because the spreads differ from site to site.
Bingo. Yes, G&G Gold is good, Sportsinsights.com is good and I helped to work on something that got them started. You do need a lot of sites. Getting the key number is the key.
even money of course
you’re a Nole, nah j/k. just played it small as kind of a hedge for my SC + 4
by rocknrollnole on Sep 24, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, all about Wash
Public nfl home dogs???
by Bud Elliott on Sep 24, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
its incredible
they haven’t won a game since whenever and people still want to throw cash at them
i teased them last week
and never again. I’ll parlay the ML fav’s here on out.
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