For Entertainment Purposes Only- Week 4: What do we really know? 96- 76 (56%), +14.52 Units

Note:  We use this column to examine the college football landscape and the weekend ahead.  The use of gambling numbers helps to show the public perception of a team and of their respective conferences.  Even if you don't gamble, or are against gambling, this is worth a read solely because it will keep you informed of the happenings with many of college football's teams.  Think of this as your weekend primer!

Welcome to another edition of For Entertainment Purposes Only!  Last year, this rather informal column went 251-190 (57%) +41.0 That's 251 wins and 190 losses for a winning percentage of 57%.  If you were wagering $100 fake dollars per game, you would have netted $4100 at season's end.  But since these are fake wagers, we refer to our wager amount as "units."  First though, a disclaimer: 

I want to emphasize that we don't endorse gambling at this site, and anything on here is for entertainment purposes only.  Always check with your local, state, or federal laws to determine the legality of wagering.

First we discussed some wagers for conference and division winners.  Since then, the odds on Clemson have gone from +1000 to +300, and Ole Miss went from +350 to +200.  No odds went against our decisions.  Then we went over season win totals.  Vegas set the number, we called it over or under!  In Week 1 we went 20-24 (45%), -6.3 Units.  Week 2 we went 39-22 (63%), +16.32 Units.  Last week was 34-27. +4.50 (+5.7 College, -1.2 NFL).  For the season, we sit at 96- 76 (56%), +14.52 Units.  If we finish at 56% over 500 selections, we'll be absolutely elated.  We like to play a lot of games to grind out the variance.  The swings over 500 games aren't nearly as dramatic as they are over 100.  It's as simple as grinding out the sample set.  

I didn't really have a theme for this week, so I figured "what do we really know" might work.  Let's check it out.

A shorter column this week, for a number of reasons.  

As you know, the opening lines come out Sunday evening.  Here's what I hit on the opening lines.  Remember, I bet these with movement in mind.  Lines will change.  If I think a line won't go in my favor, I won't hit it.

Note:  PFM= play for middle, where I make the wager with the intent of betting both sides and winning both with a middle.

 

So Carolina +4.5 Ole Miss is overrated, and haven't played anyone.
Nevada +8 I still trust the Wolfpack at home
Wake +3 BC's offense is horrible, and Wake has a competent QB.  PFM
Minnesota +2 I am thoroughly unimpressed with Northwestern.
Wisconsin -1.5 Michigan State just lost two soul crushing games in a row, will they be up?  I say no.
Boise State -14 PFM, Boise is hugely public.
Iowa State -9 Army is a bit overrated.
Memphis -2.5 PFM, people don't trust Marshal.
So Miss +14 Kansas is overrated and Southern Miss can play with them.  Tempted to say USM wins.
Rice +8.5 Vanderbilt is quite bad and now has to travel to Texas in an obvious lookahead game.
Florida -23 UT tried to milk the clock in the 3Q last week so the Gators wouldn't blow them out.
Georgia -12 AzSt is a bit overrated.  Played this thinking it would go to -14 or more, and it has not.  Stuck with it.
North Carolina +3 UNC's DT tandem wins it this weekend.
NCST PK NC State has had two weeks to prep for this game and I trust Russel Wilson.
Stanford -6.5 Perfect setup for a Washington letdown.  Washington should have beat LSU and lost to USC.  Everyone is way too high on them now. 
Miami (OH) +9 PFM- want it to go to +6.5
Utah -12 PFM.  Louisville lost their game of the year last week and now must face Utah in a cross country matchup.  If it this hits a big number like +17, I'll play Louisville.
Purdue +8 Notre Dame won't be up to play this and Purdue was looking ahead to their super bowl last week. 
Houston PK Houston is legit, TTech is off a letdown from last weekend.
New Mexico -8 NMST isn't very good.  Possible PFM
Oregon St +3 PFM (and I got it- see below)
FAU -5 I don't trust UL Monroe, but treat lightly on Sunbelt action. 
Nebraska -26.5 PFM, but comfortable with holding here.
Navy -26.5 PFM, but comfortable holding here.
Arkansas State -1 I don't trust Troy on the road.
MTSU -7 This one scares me, but I am holding it as I don't buy North Texas
FSU -13 Purely a PFM
Miami -1 Miami is hugely public, PFM
Oregon +7.5 Oregon- PFM

 

 

 

TCU +3 PFM, Clemson has swine flu
USC -43 Washington State is horrible
Minnesota/ Nwestern Over 48 Neither team plays defense
TCU/ Clemson Under 42.5 Both teams play defense
UNC/ Gtech Under 46.5 Neither offense is special
Ariz/ Oregon State Under 44 New QB for Zone, and Mike Riley is a good defense coach.
Cal -5 The other side of the middle.
Boston College +1 The other side of the Middle.
Illinois +14.5 Ohio State is too public, Illinois knows their defense
Temple -2.5 Not a fan of Buffalo
Bowling Green +17 Nice middle shot with my Boise -14
Ohio +24 (-114) Tennessee is overrated and Ohio can stick around.
ECU -10 Not many believers in ECU, I am one
Cincinatti -16.5 Fresno gives up huge plays
Marshal +3.5 The other side of my middle (-2.5 +3.5)
UAB +14.5 Texas A&M is banged up
SDST +17 Air Force is too high here
Wyoming +4 (+100) Nice price!
USF +14.5 Here it is.  i think FSU struggles, middle shot.
USF +14.5 Again, doubling up to counteract the FSU wager.
ColSt +17 Good OLine works a banged up BYU squad.
Vtech +3 The other side of my Miami middle
Vtech +3 The other side of my Miami middle
Iowa/PSU under 41 Too many people expect a shootout, but two inexperienced offensive lines.
Arizona +3 -115 Other side of the middle.
WKU +28.5 (-105) Worst team in 1A, but Navy laying 4 touchdowns? 

 

Okay, they are.  Sorry for the lack of long explanations.

Here's NFL:

 

Titans +8.5/ Seattle +8.5 6pt Even Money teaser (+100)
Titans +8.5/ Denver +7.5 6pt Even Money teaser (+100)
Titans +8.5/ Indy +8 6pt Even Money teaser (+100)
Titans +8.5/ Dallas -2.5 6pt Even Money teaser (+100)
Seattle +8.5/ Denver +7.5 6pt Even Money teaser (+100)
Seattle +8.5/ Indy +8 6pt Even Money teaser (+100)
Seattle +8.5/ Dallas -2.5 6pt Even Money teaser (+100)
Denver +7.5/ Indy +7.5 6pt Even Money teaser (+100)
Denver +7.5/ Dallas -2.5 6pt Even Money teaser (+100)
Indy +8/ Dallas -2.5 6pt Even Money teaser (+100)
Zona -1 Anti-Public
Oakland PK Anti-Public
San Diego -6 Anti-Public
Buf +6 Anti-Public
Wash -6 Anti-Public
NYJ -2 Anti-Public
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