The Final Score: Florida State Seminoles 41 - USF Bulls 24
Welcome back to this week's edition of "The Final Score." This is the weekly prediction column that our readers clamor for all week, where we the self proclaimed experts here at Tomahawk Nation will match our thorough and in-depth understanding of the game, our analytical skills, our wisdom, and our football knowledge, against our readers psychic abilities, or better yet "guesses" for Saturday's FSU expected CASTRATION of the USF Bulls.
Once again many thanks to GonzoNole for his typically brilliant contribution. Next time you see a GonzoNole comment, please thank him for his contributions to this site.
Before going any further, I would like to congratulate loyal Tomahawk Nation reader hopnole23, who last week won the coveted shiny prize for his prediction and for coming closest to the final score in FSU's complete emasculation of the BYU Cougars.
Before getting into the predictions for this week's game, I thought I would share a few fun facts and tidbits about our Seminole's, now that we are a quarter of the way through the 2009 season. Here are some interesting facts that you may or may not be aware of, and a few notes about this weeks game, which by the way has been officially dubbed and designated by Governor Charlie Crist as the State of Florida's 1st Annual Dyslexia Bowl (FSU vs USF).
Upon returning home after snapping BYU's 18 game home winning streak, our Noles' are back in the national polls and ranked 18th after a two-week absence. This upcoming game will be the first meeting between these two schools, bringing to eight the total number of in-state teams our Noles have faced in our 63-year history. Additionally at this game, we will recognize our 1999 National Championship Team as a part of this season-long, 10-year anniversary celebration of the lone unbeaten team, and the first ever Wire to Wire #1 ranked National Champions.
Though FSU and USF are meeting for the first time, there is a lot of familiarity between the two rosters. A total of 40 players were high school teammates. That’s one player more than the high school ties between the Miami and FSU rosters in this season’s opener. Jacksonville First Coast and Belle Glade Glades Central top the list of connections for this game, with four players each.
HERE ARE SOME OTHER INTERESTING FACTS YOU PROBABLY ALREADY KNOW, BUT ARE WORTH REPEATING.
-Last week against BYU, our quarterbacks, Christian Ponder (21 of 26/80.8 percent) and EJ Manuel (1 of 2/.500 percent) completed 22 of 28 passes for a combined single-game school record 78.6 team completion percentage. The previous record was 78.3 percent (36 of 46) set by Danny Kanell and Thad Busby on September 16, 1995 in a 77-17 victory vs. North Carolina State.
-The 54 points scored against BYU were the most scored by the Noles’ during the 17-game starting career of Ponder against an FBS team, and the most since the Noles’ defeated Western Carolina, 69-0 last year in his first career start.
-FSU scored points in each of the four quarters last week. It marked only the seventh time in the last two seasons that the Seminoles have scored points in each quarter during a game.
-The Noles scored 23 points in the second quarter and that was the most points scored in a single quarter since FSU scored 27 in the third quarter of its victory over Western Carolina to open the 2008 season;
-Ponder was a perfect six of six passing for 75 yards and three touchdowns on third down conversions. Ponder has completed 65.5 percent of this third down passes for 263 yards and four touchdowns in the first three games of the season. Additionally, he has rushed for 62 yards on eight carries and has converted six of nine third down opportunities while carrying the ball in the first three games of the season. Ponder's total 3rd down conversions rate is 19/29, and against BYU the Noles converted 12 of 15 total 3rd down opportunities
-Ponder has completed 61.4 percent of his passes in his last eight starts as compared to his completion percentage of 54.4 percent in the first eight starts of his career. He has completed 63.0 percent of his passes in his last four games as compare to his completion percentage of 50.6 in the first four starts of his career. Finally, he has attempted 33.3 passes per game in his last four starts as compared to 19.8 pass attempts per game in the first four starts of his career.
Our little boy has come a long way, has grown up, and is now a man.
-During the summer, Jimbo promised us more tight end involvement and he has kept his word. Our quarterbacks completed seven passes to three different tight ends last week. Ponder completed five passes for 38 yards and one touchdown to Caz Piurowski and one pass for six yards for Beau Reliford. EJ Manuel completed the first pass of his career to sophomore Ja’Baris Little who was lined up at the tight end position on the play, and it was the first time since Nov. 10, 1990 against Cincinnati that three Seminole tight ends (Reggie Johnson, Warren Hart and Dave Roberts) caught a pass in the same game. Caz has caught 10 passes for 149 yards (both career season-best), five of those catches have moved the chains, and seven have come on touchdown drives. Caz has 2 TD receptions so far and his 53-yard reception against Jax St is the longest of the season for any FSU player, and the longest by a Nole tight end since Lonnie Johnson (78 yds. vs. Clemson, 1993).
-Ty Jones got his first career 100-yard rushing game (108 yards on 12 carries and one touchdown) and it marked the first time since our victory over Miami in 2008 that Florida State had rushed for more than 300 yards in a single game (310). It also marked the first time since that Miami game that we have outrushed our opponent by more than 200 yards in a single game (310-51/+259). In addition, it was only the 6th time since the beginning of the 2000 season that FSU has rushed for 300 yards or more. We are undefeated in each of those six games.
-Our Noles held the ball for 39:51 of the 60 minutes (65.8 percent of the game) and this overwhelming time of possession advantage led to the Cougars running only 53 offensive plays. It was the fewest offensive plays allowed by the Noles’ defense since limiting Duke to 50 in a 25-6 win on Oct. 27, 2007.
-The Noles were a perfect eight of eight on scoring chances from inside the red zone against BYU (seven touchdowns and one FG) and we have converted 10 consecutive red zone opportunities.
-In a total of 77 offensive plays against BYU, the Noles only had two negative yardage plays (one rushing and one receiving). Ironically, the negative rushing play came by a receiver on a rushing attempt (Bert Reed – minus one yard on a first quarter) and the negative passing play came by a running back on a pass reception (Ty Jones– minus one yard on a third quarter pass).
-Ponder completed 21 of 26 passes and was interception-free for the fourth time in his last six starts. He has not been intercepted in eight of his 16 career starts. The Seminoles are undefeated (8-0) when Ponder completes a game without throwing an interception.
-The Noles are averaging only 6.6 penalties in the first 3 games and if they can maintain, we are on pace to be the least penalized Florida State team since 1995.
-Dustin Hopkins either kicked seven of his nine kickoffs out of the end zone, or where downed in the end zone, and only 2 kickoffs were returned for a total of 23 yards.
-Through the first three games, 11 true freshmen have seen action.
Enough of the past, it's time to get on with the USF predictions, after you hit the jump.
OK, let's get it on.
BEFORE HEADING BACK TO TAMPA AFTER THE SEMINOLES CASTRATION OF THE USF BULLS, THIS DEPRESSED USF FAN BIDS FAREWELL TO WHAT IS LEFT OF HIS BULLS TEAM.

AND FOR THOSE OF YOU FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO BE ABLE TO ATTEND THE GAME, PLEASE HAVE A BALL.
This week it is a unanimous decision, and all of us authors are now kool-aid drinking, glass is half-full, homers, and GOOD GUYS.
Last week the BAD GUYS learned their lesson, were ridiculed, were humiliated, and the final slap to their faces occurred when ESPN called each one and offered all of them jobs predicting scores for the ESPN College Gameday program. They have since repented, and since they seem sincere we have allowed them to continue on as part of the staff here at TN, but they have been advised that they are on notice.
-The K-Man= FSU 38 - USF 27-Ricobert1= FSU 42 - USF 13-oline0175= FSU 38 -USF 24-MattDNole= FSU 37 - USF 21-nolesblogger= FSU 38 - USF 24-Nattylite= FSU 42 - USF 31-FSUSOM= FSU 52 - USF 31-Fsued= FSU 30 - USF 17-TrueCubbie= FSU 43 - USF 28-pbysh= FSU 34 - USF 21-SWFLNole= FSU 45 - USF 28-FrankDNole= FSU 41 - USF 24
Finally, in our attempt to broaden our readers horizons, I leave with a short video clip which will come in very handy for the Nole fans following the game.
STOP RIGHT THERE! I GOTTA KNOW RIGHT NOW, BEFORE WE GO ANY FURTHER. WHAT'S IT GONNA BE BOY?
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33-24 FSU
Daniels gives us trouble but he makes too many mistakes. Offense looks good once again.
by NoleThruandThru on Sep 25, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions
BTW...
This is my favorite site on the internet.
I’m not sure if you appreciate the gravity of that statement—the internet is like the universe. It is huge beyond measure and ever expanding. And this one little site is like my earth and it is amazing. Thank you for all the hard work everyone puts into it. The analysis is second to none and the honest approach to sports journalism is very very refreshing. So, once again thank you everyone who is involved in making this site!! I’ve been reading for a while, but just recently decided to start posting. (I got—am currently as we type—really bored at work.)
GO NOLES!
Is it safe to say, if it rains, this will be Florida’s biggest wet t-shirt contest ever? Gotta love the white out…
moneyNole, Thanks for finally posting. We have been talking about you and wondering what your story was. j/k
I think all the FSU men are hoping for a downpour around the middle of the 4th quarter when we are up by 28 points.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
After hearing about Ponder and
The DLine injuries….I am adjusting my prediction:
Rain: 30-20
No rain: 46-29…hmm now where have I seen this score before?
I'm just wondering
do yall think that we will be able to score alot of points? Isn’t it suppose to rain? You all know what that usually means but hopefully this time will be different. Go NOLES!!!
31-21
Honestly, in front of a white out crowd, trying to impress the Tamp recruits, I think we never take the foot off the gas even after EJ comes in...
Noles 70- Bulls- 27
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
33-20
Defense gets 1 turnover to set up a field goal. Hopkins misses 1 PAT. USF scores 2 TD’s and 2 field goals.
Tough call.
For reasons of superstition, I’m not betting. But yours looks pretty good to me, Frank. Maybe a bit wider margin, but that feels about right.
This should be fun. My brother’s at USF right now, and I imagine he’s pretty stoked for this.
38-28
The offense won’t have quite as easy time against USF’s D to give us a huge TOP advantage but the Bulls offense isn’t quite as good as BYU either, especially with a freshmen QB.
45 FSU - 16 USF
i think Bradham tees off on the rsfr qb and rattles him in the 1st quarter. on a side note, i have some friends from usf coming up for the game – i hope we humiliate them in proper fashion.
Also, where all the TNers tailgating? Is there some sort of secret TN handshake so we can recognize eachother?
by DownByTheRiverWalkinOnWater on Sep 25, 2009 10:38 AM EDT reply actions
38-17 Noles
I think we’ll see an underwhelming performance by Daniels, and Ponder will impress. Hopefully G5 can take a punt / kickoff to the house. It’s only the 4th game, but I think he’s long overdue.
FYI, FSU is favored by the following statistical models:
Sagarin, Sagarin Elo/Pred, Billingsley, Billingsley+, Phil Steele, Fremeau Efficency Index, Covers.com, Massey Concensus, Stat Fox, Dunkel Index, System Average, PerformanZ Ratings, Howell, Sonny Moore, Edward Kambour, Marsee System, NutShell Sports, ARGH Power Ratings, PigSkin Index, Tom Benson, Born Power Index, Claassen Rankings, Congrove Rankings, Harmon Forcast, Super List, Dokter, Laz Index, Beck ELO, Atomic Football, Hank Trexler, Computer Adjusted Line, Lee Burdorf, NutShell Combo, Imes Comprank, DP Dwiggins, Bassett Football Model, Stephen Kerns, Keeper, Sportrends, Nationalsportsrankings, The Sports report, TW Rankings, Alder, CPA Retro, Nutshell Girl, Schmidt, CPA Rankings, Catherwood Ratings, and Payne Power Ratings.
For a total of 49 different statisical prediction systems.
I'm an impatient POS fan.
What the heck is up? We looking at an EJ start for this game? Ponder closer to 50% than 99%? Dadgummit.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 25, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I can't reveal my sources, but
we could be playing on a wet field.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
HAHA.
Do not want to sit through a rainy game again. I forgot a hat and windshield wipers for my glasses. I could barely see anything for the JSU game. Sucked.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 25, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah but that is what an impatient POS fan does...
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 25, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
fsu 42 usf 3
nmark it down
If you build it, they will come.
MORE FOOTBALL INFORMATION, NOW!!!!!! BRAIN IS HUNGRY!!!!!
Unlikely.
I’d like to see some blitzing early, though. We seemed to have some success with it against Miami, but I haven’t seen a lot since that game, and Mickey seemed to give up on it late that night.
by Drew J Jones on Sep 25, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
i'd be happy with
several “3 not 7’s” but only 3 would be ok
by DownByTheRiverWalkinOnWater on Sep 25, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
If it's raining, FSU wins 27-17...
I hate rain. Can’t the rain wait til next year when the OL should average over 300lbs???
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
FSU 35-9
I think their QB makes too many mistakes and makes our defense look like super-heros.
Althought, depending on what the breaking news is, this could change.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
41-17 Noles
Ponder is out of the game in the 3rd Quarter because we have a good lead. Manuel comes in and leads the Offense to 10 points. Our D makes BJ look confused but still gives up a couple big plays. Overall the Defense looks better
31-21
I expect a little let down on offense (can’t stay pumped and focused for every game, especially after a big win), and I expect nothing from the defense.
38-21
We are hanging 30 plus points come rain or shine.
38 - 17
Should be played in the Palindome.
by pillsburysoldier on Sep 25, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions
For the Seminoles' first game against a sub-par QB...
I’ll go with 47-17 noles.
On Offense:
200+ yards rushing & 225+ passing for a decent balance.
On Defense:
2 Int’s with at least 1 Defensive TD to keep this season’s streak alive.
less than 75 yards rushing for the Bulls.
If it rains I will disavow all knowledge of this post…
I said on FSUn's preview that I would not be surprised if we pound it down their throats, right at em, and wind up with 300+ rushing once again.
Also I heard that J. Thomas was feeling “frisky” again.
2-100 yd rushers would be a welcome sight.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
2-0 FSU....
This is like the PIR, right? Closest bid without going over?
Anyway, I stopped predicting FSU scores after we lost to UNC 41-9 in ‘01. Didn’t see that coming. Embarrassing.
FSU 30 - USF 24
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Sep 25, 2009 1:19 PM EDT reply actions
The Ryno, welcome, thanks for joining TN and posting.
I just hope those damn gophers don’t tear up the field at Doak.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
It's up
You put that up there real fast. (what a set-up for you)
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
No you da the man!
But I was replying to Darkhorse’s reply to you
when he said “That’s what she said”
then I said “You put that up there real fast”
setting him up to come back at me with
“That’s what she said” again
Never mind, if it needs that much explaining, it wasn’t worth it.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Full disclosure:
My pick last week would have been FSU 34-31. Fail. But at least I’m a GOOD GUY. This week: FSU 27-24.
Frank, I LOL everytime I read your columns. Excellent work.
I'm praying...
I do not receive anything shiny or even partially polished bronzish, come Sunday.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 25, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
If you find a paper bag on fire on your front stoop, make sure you stomp on it real good to put it out.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
You
will have the next road side bomb mailed to you next time we find one (courtesy of the retarded insyrgents in Iraq)….
J/K (unless USF does win) >:-)
by gonolesrolltide on Sep 26, 2009 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions
LETSGONOLES, also a big welcome to you and thanks for joining TN and posting. How did you find us?
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
69-14
Look for a lot of running in-between the tackles.
Look for the EJ Manuel package.
Look for USF to be stuck in second gear, and not really cognizant of it.
Look for our team “manning it up” thanks to a tough as nails quarterback who would rather be injured than call it quits.
Look for the strange powdery substance that I’m probably metaphorically putting in my body.
45-17
FSU… 2nd string in by start of 4th
by gonolesrolltide on Sep 25, 2009 6:49 PM EDT reply actions
Hopefully, and despite my "lack of fondness" for Nick Satan (Fin Fan I am)
I hope Bama goes undefeated and wins the NC, for obvious reasons.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Me too
but I’ll never hear the end of it from my wife….
by gonolesrolltide on Sep 26, 2009 2:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm going with 34-16 in this one
I’m in the extreme minority here thinking that Grothe’s absence benefits us (and I might be wrong). But you can NEVER underestimate the power of a senior QB, especially in what is such a big game for USF’s program. But a new QB making his first start at FSU, before a big crowd, after they played some I-AA team (which will make FSU look even faster to their defenders) and with FSU riding high; I like the Noles’ chances.
Let's hope so, and if you win 2 in a row, your screen name will be changed to "Bling Master."
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Nextlevel's prediction
Will be given after the game. But rest assured, it’ll be accurate.
Swagger, Intensity, Execution
HA! Regardless whether we win or lose we will be undefeated heading into the Swamp.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
hmmm
fsu-38
usf-21
"theres two types of people in this world, those who CARRY a spear and those who FEAR the spear"-James Coley
Well the pictures may or may not be
NSFW but they definately are NSFMS (my stomach) :)
Stars and Stripes (military newspaper we get in Iraq and Afghan, and other places)
gave Ponder an entire page in the sports section on Friday. Hung it on a Canes fan door and asked him when was the last time somebody the sukcanes took up an entire page in the paper.
by gonolesrolltide on Sep 26, 2009 5:10 AM EDT reply actions
All of you guys sure were wrong!!!!!!!!!!!
FSU was never really my #1 team, but as a relative of Bobby Bowden, I usually pulled for the Noles in most games. As a USF Alum, I have never been so happy to see FSU lose. Seeing this website and all of pictures and posts talking sh*t about USF really makes me laugh! It’s funny how many posts there were up until game time, then they all of the sudden stopped! Stunned FSU fans? It looks like the Noles were the ones who were “castrated!” All I have left to say is:
17-7
GO BULLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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