You may remember reading "How will Jimbo Fisher change Florida State?"  If you haven't yet, I suggest giving it a look.  One of the issues I addressed in that piece was roster turnover. I wrote:

I would also expect a lot of roster turnover.  The 85-man scholarship limit is a great equalizer in college football.  Any way of maximizing the limit gives a program a distinct advantage.  Many people don't realize, however, that scholarships are year-to-year agreements.  They are not guaranteed, and renewal is at the discretion of the program.  Some old school coaches treated them like 4-year agreements (Bowden), but guys like Urban Meyer and Nick Saban do not.  In resurrecting Miami and North Carolina, Butch Davis masterfully churned the roster with incredible efficiency.  They play within the rules but take it to the limit.  If a kid isn't developing as planned, don't look for him to be at Florida State for his entire career.  There are exceptions, but there won't be any 4-year disappointments on the roster any longer.  To that end, look for many transfers in the first two years under Fisher.  Alabama, the national champion, famously had to jettison more than 15 players in Nick Saban's first two seasons. 

One pattern I have noted under Saban, however, is that kids who buy in to the process and give championship level effort (which new strength coach Vic Viloria will demand) will not be encouraged to transfer until after they have put in at least two seasons with the program.  Players who do not buy in fully, however, could be out after only a single season.

Another issue here is academic casualties, of which you can expect a major decrease.  All of Fisher's 2008 and 2009 recruiting classes (his first two) have at least a 2.0 GPA, all but one carry over a 2.2, and his most recent class averages over a 3.0 GPA.  More support staff means more one-on-one attention for the players.  It means better monitoring of a player's academic progress.  Having a better grasp on which players are not likely to return for next season due to academic ineligibility means that Fisher can encourage players who just aren't buying into the program and developing, to transfer, without the worry of creating a lack of depth.  You should also look for increased use of the medical disqualification scholarship, a way in which a kid can finish his education when he cannot play ball due to injury.  It's a great way to free up a roster spot for a kid who has an injury that would make it difficult for him to transfer.  And opposed to releasing the player, this helps him finish his education.  Again, it's all about maximizing the roster within the 85-man limit.  

Here's Nick Saban on attrition, courtesy AL.com:

"We have a demanding program," Saban said.

"I mean, when I say 'Demanding program,' I'm not talking about football," Saban said. "It is demanding. We have some players in our program who have not met those demands. We have the same kind of demands academically. There are players that don't meet that. And we have the same thing in football. But none of these players are leaving because of the kind of football players they are."

There are players who have left because they don't believe they'll play, and Saban said he doesn't want guys who aren't happy with their roles. He also added:

"We have some players who will be grayshirted and know they will be grayshirted," Saban said. "And we have some players who are contemplating what their future's gonna be. And we have some players who are being suspended, whether it's for behavior or academic reasons, and they won't continue at our school."

I understand that this is a subject that many feel shouldn't be discussed or that goes against the idea of college athletics.  I would simply suggest those people follow a non-revenue sport.  This is happening all over the country at elite programs, and Tomahawk Nation will discuss the issue.

If a kid doesn't give championship-level effort, he will be asked to transfer.  And if a kid just doesn't develop to the point where after a few seasons he can give a "significant contribution", he might be asked to transfer (might).  I stress "might", there, because it is far from guaranteed.

But in that process, there are a number of factors a coach must consider.  What message does the transfer send to the other players?  If the player is well liked and works hard, it might hurt the team's psychology.  If the guy is a slacker, it will remind everyone that their scholarship is not guaranteed.  Coaches must also consider what high school the player came from, as it's unwise to alienate powerhouse high school programs from which a coach might recruit a star player in the future.  Extenuating circumstances must also be considered.

You can choose to believe me or not.  This didn't come from the coaching staff, but hopefully the reasoning makes sense.

Florida State has 84 scholarships for next season and the 'Noles plan to bring in a recruiting class of 28-30 players.  They return 59 scholarship players (or 62 if you are unwilling to acknowledge the three spots that came open in the last two months).  Assuming a class of 29, FSU must lose 4 more players (or 7 if you don't acknowledge the three aforementioned departures we learned about in the last month or so-- John Prior, Aaron Gresham and Maurice Harriss) to get under the limit.  Remember also that FSU doesn't have to get under the number until fall camp, so the Noles do have time to evaluate the kids under Fisher's new system and the new off-season lifting program.  How does FSU get to that number?

I start with the offensive side of the ball because the picture is much clearer.  While hamstrung by the Bowden nonsense, Fisher recruited these guys himself, and as such, most of these players are "his guys."  This side of the ball is quite young, yet it was the ACC's best offense of the decade.

Quarterback

Ideally, a team should carry 4 scholarship quarterbacks at a time.  While some believe this is a bit much, quarterback is by far the most important position on the field, and because recruiting is an inexact science, it is important to volume recruit the position (relatively speaking).  Florida State is in good shape here:

With Ponder's graduation, the 'Noles will look to take 1 quarterback in the next recruiting cycle.  Pure speculation here, but if Secord is passed by Trickett, he might look to transfer, and in that case FSU would take two quarterbacks in the next class.

Running Back

For purposes of this analysis, running back will encompass both scat backs and bigger backs along with the traditional tailback position.  This does not include the H-back position, which is essentially a smaller tight-end-type player.  Fisher has a history rotating backs (his team at LSU once led the SEC in rushing with no player rushing for more than 500 yards!).  I also think backs are easy to evaluate within their 1st year, so there isn't much need to keep them around as long as some other positions in the hope that a back might eventually blossom.  With that said, I think 6 running backs is a good number to shoot for to factor in different needs, injuries, and attrition.  It's also a position where kids will sometimes seek a transfer to get increased playing time at a small school or a school with an opening.  A back who isn't likely to make a significant contribution and who has younger players passing him over for playing time is definitely a candidate to free up a scholarship.  Here's what FSU is currently working with:

There is definitely some room to trim the fat in this group.  The 'Noles already have starter Jermaine Thomas, and Florida State is bringing in Debrale Smiley, who will be a redshirt sophomore. Thompson and Pryor were key parts of the ACC's best offense of the decade. Those 4 are very likely to complete their eligibility as 'Noles. 

But that still leaves Tavares Pressley and Ty Jones, both of whom have been passed up by younger players.   Both have been with the program for two seasons and both are unlikely to make a significant contribution.  In order to make room for new talent, those two are unlikely to finish their time at Florida State.  Pressley had the knee injury, which set him back and allowed younger players to pass him up.  Jones has repeatedly failed to manage his diabetes.  Both players needed to develop at a more rapid pace than they did.  While a nutrition program could have helped Jones manage his condition, that is in the past and Jones will not likely be able to make up for the lost time.

There is also a distinct possibility that FSU will pull in Mack Brown, a top-rated running back out of Atlanta.  Brown is currently committed to the Gators.  If that happens, FSU would need to trim their roster by one, and one of the two above listed runners would absolutely be a candidate.  Our recruiting guys do not believe FSU will take a back other than Mack Brown since 2011 is a very good class for backs.

But with all that said, there might not be much need to free up room at this spot- yet.  A lot will depend on the recruiting class.

For the rest of the offense, click "continue reading..."

Wide Receiver

Ideally, FSU should carry about 12 wide receivers.  Wide receivers occasionally have academic troubles but not significantly more than most other positions to justify adjusting the ideal allotment to account for academic trouble.  Florida State currently has 13 receivers, including current commitments and projected commitments.

FSU should and likely will look to cut one of these receivers.  But which one?  First, let's start with the receivers who should be retained.  Of the Juniors, Fortson, Reed, and Easterling are clearly the class of this group, and all made significant contributions over the last two seasons.  FSU will continue to rely on them again this year and the next. Haulstead and Smith are the only sophomores, were very highly touted, and both played a bit this past year.  They are absolutely safe.  Remember the rules on freshmen (don't fail to retain kids for lack of development if they haven't been in the program for at least two seasons, unless there is good reason). I remind readers of that because some have suggested that FSU release Josh Gehres.  Unless they know something about his practice habits of character that we at Tomahawk Nation do not, that move would be misguided.  It could also jeopardize the relationship the coaches have with Lincoln High School (in Tallahassee).

That leaves Cameron Wade and Avis Commack.  Wade has been in legal trouble, embarrassed the program, has a poor attitude, has a poor work ethic, has not received playing time, and is not a good player.  Wade was a Jeff Bowden recruit forced upon Jimbo Fisher,  who did not want him.  He's a prime example of the poor recruiting practices of the old regime, which are still hurting the program to this day.  Aside from all that, he is extremely unlikely to make his significant contribution, even after being in the program for three years.  He is one of the most likely candidates not to be on the team next season. 

As for Commack, there are mixed signals here.  On the one hand, Commack has not played much, and when he did play, he has not played well.  On the other hand, Commack has a number of things working in his favor.  First, he has been injured a bit and has a lot of ability.  Second, he hasn't been a known troublemaker, and while that isn't an endorsement of his character in either direction, his public reputation is better than Wade's.  Additionally, Commack has been in the program for only two years compared to Wade's three years.  There's a greater chance he will develop into a contributor.  He also has his school going for him.  Commack is from Jacksonville's First Coast high school, the same high school of fellow 'Noles Jermaine Thomas and Nigel Carr.  That's an important high school for FSU recruiting, and the 'Noles are expected to land two highly touted prospects from First Coast in the 2011 class.  Fisher is unlikely to jeopardize that relationship.  If Commack transfers, it's likely of his own choosing to gain greater playing time at another school.

Some might think that FSU has a log jam coming at receiver, but it should clear up rather nicely.  Fortson could go to the NFL early, and while Dent and Haggins will start at wideout, they could end up at defensive back if they don't play wide receiver at the level Fisher expects.  

All of the wide receivers recruited by Fisher at this point seem to be progressing well.  That's an encouraging sign.  It's always better to have players leave to seek more playing time than to be non-performers.

Tight End/ H-Back

Ideally, Florida State should keep 4 tight ends on the roster.  It allows for some margin of error in evaluating prospects and can allow for a redshirt if necessary.  Here's the roster:

Florida State has had trouble recruiting tight ends, mostly because for about 20 years the 'Noles didn't use the tight end in their offense.  Beau Reliford (or Bo Reliford, depending on how he is spelling it these days) is the clear cut starter of this group, and he is the best the 'Noles have had in quite some time.  But there is a massive dropoff between Reliford and the remaining tight ends.  There could definitely be some trimming of the fat in this group, and if it weren't for the relative position scarcity, there could be a lot more cuts made at this position. 

Matt Dunham is the obvious candidate.  He was not a Fisher recruit, having been a product of the 2005 recruiting class and attending most of the JUCOs in the Southeast.  Bowden welcomed him back on this team after a multiple year stint at JUCO, but Dunham is wildly out of shape and not a contributor at all.  If he wants playing time, a transfer is in order.  The guy did at one point have some talent, but few believe he can make a significant contribution at this late stage in his career.

Little is an interesting case.  He had a lazy streak that was really evident in his first year and a half at FSU.  Then the kid kicked it into gear, and a light bulb came on.  Unfortunately, he also got sick right about that time, and that served to hamstring the guy and diminish some of the strength gains he was making towards the end of the off-season program.  And it was doubly unlucky because he had slacked through much of the previous off-season work.  Little is also from Tallahassee's Lincoln High, an important recruiting hotbed for Florida State.  Little looks to be safe this year because FSU has absolutely no depth at this position, but he absolutely must fully buy in to the program this off-season, put on the necessarily bulk, and just commit.  

As for the two listed recruits, they aren't expected to contribute immediately, and both would probably need a redshirt.  Tye is not yet committed but I'm betting Coley hauls him in.  There's also a grades issue with him, but given how raw he is, and the numbers game of which this article details, it wouldn't be a horrible thing for him to do a year of prep school and then enroll at FSU in January 2011.   

On a final note, the lack of depth at tight end almost mandates that FSU use more 3 and 4 wide receiver sets, and that means retaining Commack for 2010 at least.

Offensive Line

Ah, the best-looking guys on the field. 

Ideally, 14 or 15 offensive linemen should be on the roster.  Offensive line depth is key but not for rotation purposes.  No, offensive line depth is crucial because there is a heavy attrition rate at this position from year to year and injuries frequently happen.  The number will obviously vary from season to season as the team will need to adjust for graduation.  Rick Trickett rebuilt the offensive line from what was accurately described as "the absolute worst offensive line of any school in a BCS conference (64 teams)."  Under the new strength program, his line should be the best in the country, and as an article later this week will detail, it was already the best in the conference in some time.  I also expect the new strength coach to get these guys to stop drinking so much beer.  Let's have a look at the line's makeup:

Here, the cut has already been made.  Freshman John Prior went back to Ohio.  He had an immediate family member with some very serious health issues, and that understandably also caused some homesickness.  While some kids are bad apples, Prior was a good guy who clearly belonged at home with his family, and our thoughts and prayers are with him and his family.  

Expect FSU to take 1 or 2 offensive linemen this season.  Next season, however, with assuming FSU takes 1 lineman this recruiting class and assuming attrition of 1 and graduation of 3, FSU will likely take 3 offensive linemen (maybe 4).  While that might seem like a bunch, consider that the recruits will likely see the entire offensive linemen make 1st or 2nd team all-conference, and Hudson is a lock for an All-American slot and a 1st round selection. 

Conclusion

We already know that barring some serious miracle (and it would need to be a damn quick miracle given that the players begin off-season training Monday), Prior is gone.  I would expect that Cam Wade will be encouraged to seek another institution of higher learning.  At this point, however, it seems that an overwhelming majority of Fisher's recruits have a place on the team and are in line to contribute.  Tomorrow, I'll detail the defensive side where transfers should be heavy.