Revisiting our 2009 Projections for Florida State

[A piece by Fsued]

Doesn't August seem like a long time ago?

Bobby Bowden thought he was going to be FSU's football coach for at least 2 more seasons.

Conan O'Brien thought he was going to host the Tonight Show for at least 10 more seasons.

And Tiger Woods ... oh never mind.

It was also a time when expectations, if not curiosity, ran high regarding how FSU would fare in football in the waning years of the Bowden regime/Fisher HCIW regime.

Our fearless leader asked the site authors/editors to affix a percentage chance of victory from each game. From that, a win total prediction was generated.  Remember this chart?

Member Name Miami Jax St @ BYU USF @ BC GT @ UNC NC ST @ CLEM @ WAKE MD @ UF Total Projected Wins Favored in
Ricobert11 75% 100% 70% 75% 95% 50% 60% 70% 65% 85% 85% 33% 8.6 10
FrankDNole 73% 91% 78% 80% 78% 56% 59% 68% 63% 79% 89% 41% 8.6 11
The K-Man 70% 95% 75% 85% 80% 45% 50% 75% 50% 75% 90% 20% 8.1 8
Nolesblogger 75% 100% 80% 70% 85% 50% 50% 75% 50% 80% 85% 10% 8.1 8
Nattylite 80% 94% 75% 75% 68% 49% 51% 70% 55% 65% 85% 25% 7.9 10
Pbysh 75% 95% 80% 80% 80% 50% 40% 75% 50% 60% 80% 15% 7.8 8
MissouriNole 70% 99% 70% 65% 80% 50% 45% 65% 50% 70% 85% 25% 7.7 9
True Cubbie 72% 100% 75% 75% 70% 50% 50% 70% 45% 70% 85% 5% 7.7 8
Oline01075 65% 99% 80% 80% 75% 55% 40% 60% 30% 65% 80% 20% 7.5 9
MattDNole 75% 95% 75% 75% 75% 45% 40% 65% 35% 60% 85% 10% 7.4 8
SWFL Nole 60% 99% 80% 70% 70% 50% 45% 65% 45% 65% 80% 5% 7.3 8
FSUncensored 70% 100% 55% 72% 70% 55% 43% 75% 35% 63% 88% 8% 7.3 9
FSU44 67% 99% 60% 70% 79% 45% 46% 58% 40% 65% 85% 10% 7.2 8
FSUSom 60% 95% 70% 65% 75% 45% 40% 75% 40% 65% 75% 10% 7.2 8
NoleThruAndThru 55% 95% 65% 60% 70% 50% 50% 50% 60% 50% 70% 10% 6.9 7
Fsued 65% 99% 65% 75% 60% 40% 30% 65% 45% 45% 75% 10% 6.7 7
Average 69% 97% 72% 73% 76% 49% 46% 68% 47% 66% 83% 16% 7.6 8.5

I think it's fascinating to look back at these predictions, both in the big picture and from a game-by-game perspective.

In the big picture, FSU came in 1.6 wins below projected finish (projected 7.6 wins, FSU finished the schedule 6-6).

Other interesting observations:

  • No one -- zip, nada, nobody -- picked FSU to finish WORSE than it did. This tells me that despite the truth that Tomahawk Nation "keeps it real" far better than any other FSU site, we are still somewhat susceptible to homerism.
  • No participants pegged FSU as favorites in the same number of games the Noles ended up winning -- 6.
  • FSU lost two games in which every participant listed the Noles as the favorite (Miami/USF).  The 'Noles were favorites in those games. 
  • FSU was a clear underdog in only one game -- UF -- while it was the clear favorite (70 percent to win or higher) in 5 games. In those 5 games, FSU went 3-2.
  • In the 6 games in which FSU was a slight/small favorite or underdog (those between 30 and 70 percent chance to win), FSU went 3-3.

Takeaways:

If your team is going to win 9,10, or 11 games, it simply needs to be the overwhelming (70-plus percent) favorite in  9, 10, or 11 games. The reality is, your team will STILL lose one or two of those games, in all likelihood, but will also pick up a few wins from games where the win percentage is closer to 50/50.

An early look at next year's schedule from my standpoint does NOT show a wealth of games where we will be 70-plus percent favorites, even with the improvements I believe that will come with regime change. Hence, my win total projection will be similar to this year (esp. given we are trading USF for Oklahoma). I imagine when I'm done with the formula that I'll end up around 7.5 (up .8  wins) from last year.

Anyway, I believe we said each author/editor would contribute $1,000 to a pot with the money going to the winner(s). Hmmm, I haven't really looked to see who will win all that money ......... I'll have to check on that ......

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