Revisiting our 2009 Projections for Florida State
by Bud Elliott on Jan 14, 2010 11:29 AM EST
in FSU Football
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Print[A piece by Fsued]
Doesn't August seem like a long time ago?
Bobby Bowden thought he was going to be FSU's football coach for at least 2 more seasons.
Conan O'Brien thought he was going to host the Tonight Show for at least 10 more seasons.
And Tiger Woods ... oh never mind.
It was also a time when expectations, if not curiosity, ran high regarding how FSU would fare in football in the waning years of the Bowden regime/Fisher HCIW regime.
Our fearless leader asked the site authors/editors to affix a percentage chance of victory from each game. From that, a win total prediction was generated. Remember this chart?
| Member Name | Miami | Jax St | @ BYU | USF | @ BC | GT | @ UNC | NC ST | @ CLEM | @ WAKE | MD | @ UF | Total Projected Wins | Favored in |
| Ricobert11 | 75% | 100% | 70% | 75% | 95% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 65% | 85% | 85% | 33% | 8.6 | 10 |
| FrankDNole | 73% | 91% | 78% | 80% | 78% | 56% | 59% | 68% | 63% | 79% | 89% | 41% | 8.6 | 11 |
| The K-Man | 70% | 95% | 75% | 85% | 80% | 45% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 75% | 90% | 20% | 8.1 | 8 |
| Nolesblogger | 75% | 100% | 80% | 70% | 85% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 80% | 85% | 10% | 8.1 | 8 |
| Nattylite | 80% | 94% | 75% | 75% | 68% | 49% | 51% | 70% | 55% | 65% | 85% | 25% | 7.9 | 10 |
| Pbysh | 75% | 95% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 50% | 40% | 75% | 50% | 60% | 80% | 15% | 7.8 | 8 |
| MissouriNole | 70% | 99% | 70% | 65% | 80% | 50% | 45% | 65% | 50% | 70% | 85% | 25% | 7.7 | 9 |
| True Cubbie | 72% | 100% | 75% | 75% | 70% | 50% | 50% | 70% | 45% | 70% | 85% | 5% | 7.7 | 8 |
| Oline01075 | 65% | 99% | 80% | 80% | 75% | 55% | 40% | 60% | 30% | 65% | 80% | 20% | 7.5 | 9 |
| MattDNole | 75% | 95% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 45% | 40% | 65% | 35% | 60% | 85% | 10% | 7.4 | 8 |
| SWFL Nole | 60% | 99% | 80% | 70% | 70% | 50% | 45% | 65% | 45% | 65% | 80% | 5% | 7.3 | 8 |
| FSUncensored | 70% | 100% | 55% | 72% | 70% | 55% | 43% | 75% | 35% | 63% | 88% | 8% | 7.3 | 9 |
| FSU44 | 67% | 99% | 60% | 70% | 79% | 45% | 46% | 58% | 40% | 65% | 85% | 10% | 7.2 | 8 |
| FSUSom | 60% | 95% | 70% | 65% | 75% | 45% | 40% | 75% | 40% | 65% | 75% | 10% | 7.2 | 8 |
| NoleThruAndThru | 55% | 95% | 65% | 60% | 70% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 60% | 50% | 70% | 10% | 6.9 | 7 |
| Fsued | 65% | 99% | 65% | 75% | 60% | 40% | 30% | 65% | 45% | 45% | 75% | 10% | 6.7 | 7 |
| Average | 69% | 97% | 72% | 73% | 76% | 49% | 46% | 68% | 47% | 66% | 83% | 16% | 7.6 | 8.5 |
I think it's fascinating to look back at these predictions, both in the big picture and from a game-by-game perspective.
In the big picture, FSU came in 1.6 wins below projected finish (projected 7.6 wins, FSU finished the schedule 6-6).
Other interesting observations:
- No one -- zip, nada, nobody -- picked FSU to finish WORSE than it did. This tells me that despite the truth that Tomahawk Nation "keeps it real" far better than any other FSU site, we are still somewhat susceptible to homerism.
- No participants pegged FSU as favorites in the same number of games the Noles ended up winning -- 6.
- FSU lost two games in which every participant listed the Noles as the favorite (Miami/USF). The 'Noles were favorites in those games.
- FSU was a clear underdog in only one game -- UF -- while it was the clear favorite (70 percent to win or higher) in 5 games. In those 5 games, FSU went 3-2.
- In the 6 games in which FSU was a slight/small favorite or underdog (those between 30 and 70 percent chance to win), FSU went 3-3.
Takeaways:
If your team is going to win 9,10, or 11 games, it simply needs to be the overwhelming (70-plus percent) favorite in 9, 10, or 11 games. The reality is, your team will STILL lose one or two of those games, in all likelihood, but will also pick up a few wins from games where the win percentage is closer to 50/50.
An early look at next year's schedule from my standpoint does NOT show a wealth of games where we will be 70-plus percent favorites, even with the improvements I believe that will come with regime change. Hence, my win total projection will be similar to this year (esp. given we are trading USF for Oklahoma). I imagine when I'm done with the formula that I'll end up around 7.5 (up .8 wins) from last year.
Anyway, I believe we said each author/editor would contribute $1,000 to a pot with the money going to the winner(s). Hmmm, I haven't really looked to see who will win all that money ......... I'll have to check on that ......
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Disagree with the second conclusion.
ThruandThru and Fsued both had FSU as favorites 7 times, but FSU only won 6 regular season games.
Just because FSU won the bowl game to get to 7 wins, doesn’t make these two right.
First time seeing the chart
Wish i would have known about the site at the begining of the season and maybe ida been on board with expecting a less than fullfilling season. I just thought that we would catch a few breaks in big games that would give us the 8 or 9 regular season wins
most of us thought the defense would be exposed badly this year
I’m not sure anyone realized just how bad it would be though.
I mean, from practice reports
I thought Jamie Robinson would have 30 interceptions. I was wrong.
>>---l>
But we also had the srimmage where Ponder threw for 390 yards in a half.
by Bud Elliott on Jan 14, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Which made my 8800 yard regular season passing total projection wrong as well
Moral of the story: practice reports are misleading
>>---l>
Was about to comment on that.
Conclusion 1 could be ammended to add that no one could have reasonably expected FSU’s defense to be as terrible as it was, homer or not. I think I pegged a 6.9-something (7), and I try to be as pessimistic realistic as anyone when analyzing our team. There’s no way, with the talent we had – good, great, average, whatever – that Florida State should have fielded a bottom 20-30 defense. Given that, I thought the picks were pretty doggone excellent and certainly blew away any other popular opinion that was out there.
I also remember Fsued commenting something to the effect that FSU had a better chance of going 5-7 than it had of going 9-3 or 10-2, or something to that effect. Not many touched the comment, but that was the prediction that earned the pot of money. With his prediction, with analysis, that the leadership structure would finally implode (he detailed how leadership structures are built, maintained, and how FSU’s was near complete failure), Fsued’s definitely the winner here.
the only BCS conference defense to be worse was
Washington State
by Bud Elliott on Jan 14, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
well stated TRM
I never would have thought that it would be as bad as it was. I figured that sure we would give up points but i also thought that we would have caught a couple breaks, i.e have the ball the last time in a game and catch the dadgum thing for the win…..
by NOLEcasterWX on Jan 14, 2010 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
BTW, have to give you props
I believe you called the defense to be bad before the season. Some (including myself) were saying it would be better than expected. Turns out, it was MUCH worse than even you predicted. Who would have thought?
It had a lot to fo with how damn lucky our 2008 defense was
Figured those bounces wouldn’t happen again
Fsued brings up a very good point here.
For all you new people. Please make sure you recognize how we project schedules around here. Learn it, love it, live it.
Expected win total is the way to go. I don’t want to see posts in the future that say “FSU has a better than 50% chance in 10 games, so they’ll win 10 games.” Just don’t do it.
And will enjoy it.
Matt doesn’t go all stats-ish on people often. But he will when you fail to utilize expected win totals.
This offseason?
The long awaited parts 3 and 4 of my reaction to an article that was written over a year ago.
Get excited TNation!!
Seriously. Like Dexter.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jan 14, 2010 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
That was a great
article. I use many of the same formula’s when betting during the season.
Chop it up Seminoles!
by horsepowernole on Jan 14, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
Charts, graphs, special diets, etc...........
Are all fine things to chat about. What nobody with any real football experience( coaching or playing) couldn’t possibly have forseen was our beloved Noles having the ABSOLUTE worst defense since i’ve been watching/ listening back in 76.
ALL the 3-6 point losses are wins if we just play average defense. The offense was even better this year than advertised.
I just saw where a 4 star defensive lineman from tennessee will visit"gulp" south florida? wtf is going on?? Lord knows we need helpppppppppp at DT and DE badly. Are we not percieved as less than USF??
Fully aware that all you youngsters will “correct” me………….this is plain stupid.
Cmon coaches, get some beef with brains. it has always and will always come down to size, speed and heart.
GO NOLES
We said it would be the worst in 2 decades
but I didn’t know by how much. .
I just saw where a 4 star defensive lineman from tennessee will visit"gulp" south florida? wtf is going on?? Lord knows we need helpppppppppp at DT and DE badly. Are we not percieved as less than USF??
Who? We’re kicking ass in recruiting right now, just want to know who this was.
by Bud Elliott on Jan 14, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
I bet you think hitters with the highest batting average and pitchers with the most wins makes them the best players
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
I can vouch for FSUn... this site called out our defense as being possibly the worst in a decade, or more.
"I am the way, the truth, and the life...no one gets to the Father but through Me"
When do you plan on doing this for next year?
It would be interesting to see everyone’s thoughts at the end of the prior season and then right before the next season starts. So maybe take a look after NSD, and then right before 2010 season starts, so any adjustments can be made based on spring/summer practice.
I did a back of the envelope for next year and have us at 8.1 expected victories, with us favored in 10 games.
We will do it the week before the season starts
after the individual unit previews.
by Bud Elliott on Jan 14, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
6-6 in 2009
Was going to mention this in the other fanpost. Jeff Cameron and many others that called in after spring game last year all said this would be a 6-6 team given its schedule and the defense.
What was apparently lost b/w spring and fall was Mickey’s trips to LeBeau and Bilecheck, and the inevitable garnet colored glass projections that FSU and all other fanbases look through going into each season.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jan 14, 2010 11:58 AM EST reply actions
Vegas
IIRC, and I’ll have to concede to Ed if you looked it up…but I thought that FSU’s record was 0-6 as a favorite and 5-2 as a dog:
Favorite:
UM- didn’t cover and lost
Jax St- didn’t cover
USF- didn’t cover and lost
BC: didn’t cover and lost
MD- didn’t cover and won
NCST- didn’t cover and won
Underdog:
BYU- covered and won
GT- covered but lost
UNC- covered and won
Wake- covered and won
Clemson- didn’t cover and lost
UF- didn’t cover
WVU- covered and won
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jan 14, 2010 11:59 AM EST reply actions
Gotcha
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jan 14, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, recruiting guys
what do we know about J.C. Copeland. Is he visiting USF just to get drunk in Tampa and go to the strip clubs? What is his deal? Likely qualifier/nonqualifier?
by Bud Elliott on Jan 14, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
I'd be lying to you if I told you I knew anything about him.
I’ll research him and get back to you.
SCALP 'EM SEMINOLES!
I never project under ten wins
No matter what I think. to do anything less I consider giving aid and comfort to the enemy. You must project your thoughts into the mind of the enemy and establish a feeling of hopelessness.
" Fisher’s approach to building a winner is lifted from Saban’s playbook. Right down to the terminology such as becoming more "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented."
" Nick and I are friends," he said. "That guy is one of the best football coaches I’ve ever been around. God knows he’s brilliant. … A lot of the things he believes are a lot of things I believe. We’re very similar!
The process begins!
by DocHoliday2 on Jan 14, 2010 12:30 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Doc
Love it! That’s how I feel walking into Doak before every game, believing the old ‘noles will be back with a vengance even after I’ve picked them to lose against the other team all week long.
Its like Shawshank; “Hope may be one of the best things….[but]…I believe hope may have killed that man”
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jan 14, 2010 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Copeland
http://recruiting.scout.com/2/915405.html
LOL
" Fisher’s approach to building a winner is lifted from Saban’s playbook. Right down to the terminology such as becoming more "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented."
" Nick and I are friends," he said. "That guy is one of the best football coaches I’ve ever been around. God knows he’s brilliant. … A lot of the things he believes are a lot of things I believe. We’re very similar!
The process begins!
That picture is hilarious.
In his film he goes unblocked in most of the footage. He’s very fast and takes advantage of the openings. Looks decent when he is blocked as he doesn’t get pushed back or turned. Has good pursuit when the RB runs wide. Granted, this is highlight film, so who knows his bad tendencies or weaknesses.
Spanky, the short #50 in red never stands a chance. Feel kinda bad for the kid, but his dad probably put up a fight to the school board about getting his son some playing time.
like Bobby not visiting Percy Harvin because he wanted to collect a check for speaking at FCA
and instead sending Jeff? That’s the worst I have heard
Bobby's pitch included endearing dadgums paired with mysoginist, "just like a woman" comments
Instead Jeff used “Rainbow offense” to sell his role in the FSU offensive juggernaut. Both are bad, but blowing off a consensus #1 player in America is unforgivable. Good riddance to the Bowden family.
is that true?
i just threw up and shat a little bit
His Rivals page is cracking me up.
Meet the 2005 Mr. Mangum. He shows a nice Olan Mills head tilt in both of the pictures. Notice his stars— 3*/5.5 by Rivals, but 1.38 by 13 users (surely updated by pissed off fans throughout his FSU career).
He was part of a trio from La Marque, TX including Russell Ball. He had an offer from UF. Good thing we won that recruiting battle.
He is rep'n that Tayshaun Prince jersey pretty hard in his other pic
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
Has anyone started a fanpost about USF and Skip Holtz
As it could pertain to Coach Hudson? Not trying to hijack, but it would be nice to know where to find updates, as I’m on the road.
Thanks!
by Randall W. Spetman on Jan 14, 2010 12:43 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Wonder what the average Tenn fan would think
If Skip took the Tenn job and announced he was bring Lou with him to coach for free.
" Fisher’s approach to building a winner is lifted from Saban’s playbook. Right down to the terminology such as becoming more "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented."
" Nick and I are friends," he said. "That guy is one of the best football coaches I’ve ever been around. God knows he’s brilliant. … A lot of the things he believes are a lot of things I believe. We’re very similar!
The process begins!
I really regret not logging onto this site as T. K. Wetherell
Dave Hart Jr. would not have been bad either.
" Fisher’s approach to building a winner is lifted from Saban’s playbook. Right down to the terminology such as becoming more "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented."
" Nick and I are friends," he said. "That guy is one of the best football coaches I’ve ever been around. God knows he’s brilliant. … A lot of the things he believes are a lot of things I believe. We’re very similar!
The process begins!
AND not just Mr. Copeland,
just take a gander( old talk for a look) at the number of commits/ signings in the days since the ARMY all- star game on the D/L.
J.C. Copeland still committed to the Vols but will take visits
Tennessee four-star defensive end commit J.C. Copeland (LaGrange, Ga./Troup) has set two official visits, to South Florida on the weekend of Jan. 22nd and South Carolina on the weekend of Jan. 29th, ESPN’s JC Shurburtt reports.
For who, USF or Tennessee?
OLDNOLE60, as long as the kid commits, does it matter when he commits? We got Luc and Joyner before the all-star game.
I’m not sure we can get Copeland into school.
I think it is probably a good sign the coaches don't go after every Tenn commit
It just may mean they have somebody else in mind.
" Fisher’s approach to building a winner is lifted from Saban’s playbook. Right down to the terminology such as becoming more "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented."
" Nick and I are friends," he said. "That guy is one of the best football coaches I’ve ever been around. God knows he’s brilliant. … A lot of the things he believes are a lot of things I believe. We’re very similar!
The process begins!
Well, I knew it would be an uphill battle,
but i seriously hope we are looking for some 4 star d/l, d/e talent.
While we are dreaming, close your eyes and imagine our AVERAGE d/l and d/ends playing the 09 season. we may have beaten all but the gayterds.
I sure hope you guys are right about the new coaching staff and the recruiting. love the site and love the noles.
p.s. do moms still teach/ say…………..if you can’t say something nice about a person, don’t say anything???
They do
and you’re not that old. Come on now.
Our recruiting class is sick. I’m sure there’s a reason we’re not on copeland. My guess is grades.
Now that some of us Authors have been exposed, abused, and humiliated, don't think that you the members are off the hook.
Those members that were around in August also made predictions for the total number of season wins.
If you recall, YOU also predicted how the individual units (DB’s, LB’s, DL, OL, Off Backfield, WR’s, and ST) would perform as far as Progression, Stagnation Continuation, or Regression.
Soon, I plan to grade and do a report card for the members based on the season total wins YOU predicted and it is not going to be pretty.
I also plan to revisit how the individual units performed along with what YOU the members predicted, and with some of the comments YOU posted.
Then we can all share a good laugh as we recall the good old days.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Sorry Frank, but when you kept emphasizing the "YOU", I thought of this for some reason...
“I have no choice but to tell these bums that they should do whatever is necessary to recover their money from YOU, Jeffrey Lebowski. And with Brandt as my witness, I tell you this: Any further harm visited upon Bunny, shall be visited tenfold upon your head. By God sir. I will not abide another toe.”
Any chance I get to drop a Big Lebowski quote, I’m going to do it…
Condolences Lebowski
The Bums lost!
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jan 14, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
Ready and waiting.
"I am the way, the truth, and the life...no one gets to the Father but through Me"
I'm just glad that every user on here (myself incl.) weren't included in the story's graph
I had us at 8-4 (after rounding up if I remember correctly), but was still optomistic that some of the %s given at the time could be raised as the season went along.
"The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary." Vince Lombardi
"We'll win games with talent, we'll win championships with character." Jimbo Fisher
Okay, I am scared to do this for next season now
I studied history; I should stay away from stats anyway.
2010 ~ The Year of the Spear
Frank
Throw in some of the Ponder just doesn’t have it stuff also.
" Fisher’s approach to building a winner is lifted from Saban’s playbook. Right down to the terminology such as becoming more "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented."
" Nick and I are friends," he said. "That guy is one of the best football coaches I’ve ever been around. God knows he’s brilliant. … A lot of the things he believes are a lot of things I believe. We’re very similar!
The process begins!
On Thursday night games ...
… I know there is a feeling that we are cursed on those (although I think that is being put to rest) but it SHOULD be viewed as a positive. In fact, I would argue that we should NOT schedule a bye week BEFORE the Thursday night game provided that our opponents agrees to do the same.
Why?
Because without a bye week, both teams are preparing on the same short calendar — there should be no advantage. Actually, the advantage should go to the nimble, hard-working, most efficient staff which in the past was always going to be the other guy, but which now should be us.
THEN, we have an extra two days to prepare for our next opponent which should be an advantage over thaf foe who plays on Saturday.
It’s why NFL owners are insanely jealous and resentful of the Lions and Cowboys’ traditional Thanksgiving gig. They get a built-in two-day preparation advantage every week after Thanksgiving.
well the NFL network has Thursday games now so its not that much of an advantage anymore, but i get your point
"Don't flinch, let's kill a fly with an Axe."
>>>──────►
But they don't start those until November sometime.
Ditto with TNT’s NBA schedule (obviously since the season doesn’t begin until then).
"The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary." Vince Lombardi
"We'll win games with talent, we'll win championships with character." Jimbo Fisher
We have won the last 2
and considering our Thursday night game will be against a bad team, I think we make it 3.
I would argue that we should NOT schedule a bye week BEFORE the Thursday night game provided that our opponents agrees to do the same.
Why?
Because without a bye week, both teams are preparing on the same short calendar — there should be no advantage. Actually, the advantage should go to the nimble, hard-working, most efficient staff which in the past was always going to be the other guy, but which now should be us.
Agreed, but both teams will look sloppy.
Mobile "reply" feature isn't working, so sorry I'd this is misplaced.
FSUn, thanks for the word on Hudson…I’ll ignore the coachspeak and pretend you said “Hell No, He won’t go”! Glad to know this.
Matt…confession time, buddy. I’m not the real Randall W Spetman. I know this news probably turns your world upside down. Please accept my sincerest apologies.
Sincerely,
Ron Dugans
by Randall W. Spetman on Jan 14, 2010 1:26 PM EST via mobile reply actions
No need to be a douche.
It was just a joke.
Kinda like the time when User “ChuckNole” asked “Who is Phillip Thomas?”
FSUSOM just shed a tear.
On a positive note, perhaps Phillip Thomas was able to plant Greg Paulus in practice.
From Syracuse Athletics website:
Freshman Year (2009): Has played in eight of nine games … Against Northwestern, made a pair of tackles … Against Maine, posted five solo tackles … Against South Florida, sidelined due to injury … Against West Virginia, posted four solo tackles in his return from injury… Against Akron, tallied three tackles… Against Cincinnati, had one solo tackle… At Pittsburgh, replaced the injured Max Suter at safety in the second half … Had three solo tackles and three assisted tackles… At Louisville, had one solo tackle and one interception.Those ellipses drive me nuts.
What...
You don’t like these…I happen to…love…them…
by Jamil Dawson on Jan 14, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
oh no, the ellipse Nazi!
I don’t think they are used on here to signify an omission most most of the time (more like a lazy way to create space and separate thoughts quickly).
This has been the second mention of it in the past week, so maybe we’ve moved on from spelling errors, or loose vs lose, etc…
I’m sure I’ve been guilty of using them too much, so sorry if I’ve left you hanging trying to figure out what I omitted. LOL.
No, it just happens to be from an official site and not one of our quick replies.
That’s the only reason why I mentioned it. I’m not normally one to be a nazi about that stuff outwardly—especially on someone else’s website.
I was going for
the most homo I could find. It was tough. One candidate included Tubbs holding a Parrot on his hand…
I was joking too...I assumed you'd probably know that.
Agreed with missing Philip Thomas. Thanks Chuck for all your preparation on Wisconsin. It really saved your ass in the long run.
by Randall W. Spetman on Jan 14, 2010 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Ahh... see, "buddy" is the universal symbol for "I'm being a tough guy" @ TNation.
There was a poster that used to like to throw that out.
My apologies.
Nah...
“Buddy” means…well…Buddy.
Rarely will you see the “internet tough guy” in any of my posts. On the rare occasion I do, it’s more to get a rise outta someone.
Kinda reminds me of that god awful comic…what’s his name…
Dane Cook…with the whole “Hey Buddy/Chief/Guy/Bro” tough guy sact.
that other guy musta been a megadouche
by Randall W. Spetman on Jan 14, 2010 6:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'M NOT YOUR PAL BUDDY!
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jan 14, 2010 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
In keeping with the Miami Vice theme above, "Listen up Bubba."
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Well, I know nothing of Mr.Copelands grades or
for that matter his play. I just used hin ( as i said before) as an example of the many d/l commits since the ARMY game.And no, except for generating excitement on these boards i suppose it matters little…………………..except, recruits do read the boards and some may say hey! why is school x getting all those 5 stars. i think i’ll go there.
That is whay i like em early and often.
go noles!
There's also the issue of 2011
we’re in very good position to land 2 of the top 10 defensive ends in the country. We can’t take everyone this year, unfortunately.
Considering how loaded 2011 DE position is
especially in the state of FL itself, I want us to take at least 3 DEs and wouldn’t mind seeing us take 4 or even 5 of them.
"The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary." Vince Lombardi
"We'll win games with talent, we'll win championships with character." Jimbo Fisher
Very interesting.
What I really want to know is what special algorithm is FSUn using to predict 72% USF vs. 70% BC in his forecasts? Must be a pretty elaborate formula…
I would also say, though, that the result doesn’t necessarily indicate homerism. I am sure the “confidence intervals” of many posters would have accommodated for +/-1.5 wins in their predictions, and certain variables (i.e., injuries) came in at truly what might be considered a worst case scenario, or close to it. Mincey, in particular, .might have been viewed as the person we could least afford to lose coming into the season (besides Ponder). Throw in Ponder & Hudson for the last few games, and percentages for those outcomes would have plummeted, and I think forecasts would have come out potentially below actualities.
Of course, I’ll throw this qualification out that if the picks were made after the extent of Mincey’s injury was already known, then go ahead and color all of these fellas raging G&G homers.
It has to do with anticipated point spreads
This is a great piece that explains it
http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/5/19/879468/does-florida-state-have-the
Very nice. I guess I remember some of that conversation now that you bring it up.
Mine was a halfway tongue-in-cheek remark about the implied precision of 2% one way or the other… but I’ll give it to FSUn again — the man does his homework.
Updated 3:25 projections
SAMF 0.99
AT OU 0.35
BYU 0.85
WAKE 0.85
AT MIA 0.4
CLEM 0.6
UNC 0.6
AT NCST 0.725
BC 0.8
AT UVA 0.75
AT MD 0.8
UF 0.45
8.165
That’s 8-4 if I’ve ever seen it and 7-1 or 6-2 in the ACC
Think NCSU has as good a chance to contend as Clemson.
Haven’t followed them closely, but I expect steady improvement under O’Brien. We know their offense is legit so long as R. Wilson sticks around, and if they shore up their defense they could be a threat.
Weren’t injuries the primary reason they were so bad defensively last year? Otherwise, have they made any offseason moves relating to the defensive staff?
On the other hand, Clemson’s offense minus Spiller minus Ford is a recipe for 15 PPG.
Well there you go.
Clemson it is…. and seeing @FSU, @BC, @UNC, in addition to my other sentiment about that program, makes me think they’ll struggle.
I’m not gonna believe Wake can get back into things post-Skinner. So what about BC? Any mass exodus on OL/DL? We have them at home, too, so I would really expect us to take that game, when we were only one dropped INT from beating them there, even sans defense.
Presbyterian – 95%
@Auburn – 40%
SouthCarolina – 50%
North Texas – 90%
GT – 65%
MD – 85%
MIA – 60%
NCSt – 80%
at FSU – 45%
at BC – 60%
at UNC – 40%
at Wake – 55%
I think I’m too harsh on them, but I get 4.9.
Yeah I didn't bother with the non-conference.
Those percentages were the ones I was least confident about anyway.
This year is the reverse of last.
We get (potentially) a bad UVA team while Clemson has to play GT.
The schedule actually works in our favor for once.
Seems to me
That a system team like that would suffer less from graduation because they’re more of a “do your job” kind of team. They don’t need a gamebreaker, though it definitely helps. Plus, GT has to see some improvement on that awful defense soon. I think they’ll drop off, but I don’t think they’ll be bad.
>>---l>
We'll see if they can possibly get worse on that side
Than again, they were bad even with two early round draft picks
>>---l>
It's still hard to play that team.
Nesbitt can run the system.
Take for example Navy. Navy may never be good enough to beat the elite, but they can cause them to waste practice time (see: State, Ohio).
too difficult to do without knowing if Parker will be back
"The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary." Vince Lombardi
"We'll win games with talent, we'll win championships with character." Jimbo Fisher
So I guess he would hang around if Parker goes MLB.
Is the rule still in place that allows graduate students to transfer without sitting out?
Not sure about the rule
Also not sure how high they are on that Boyd kid
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
Better plan ahead for the thread overflow the week of playing Presbyterian.
Aside from the exciting prospects of a new season and that the site’s members will grow (That’s what she said), their mascot is the “Blue Hose.”
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