Seminoles Basketball Bracketology

First Fan Post, longtime reader. A good friend of mine created an NCAA resume of sorts for Alabama over at RollBamaRoll and so I thought I'd do the same for FSU. Four ACC games ago it looked like we were definitely  a solid Top 25 team and a very probable entry into the NCAA Tournament. Now at 2-2 we look probable for the Tourney, but certainly not a shoe-in. So now it's resume time:

An explanation into the chart below. The left hand column shows teams we have already beaten. The right hand column shows teams we've lost to, and the middle column shows teams we've yet to play. Teams in bold are currently projected to make the Tournament (according to Espn's Joe Lunardi.) Note: I listed the team's projected seed and not their overall seed. The numbers next to the other teams list their current RPI as per I have NOT listed any teams AP or Coaches Poll ranking as these are obsolete. The selection committee solely uses the RPI and judge possible schools based on how they fare against top RPI teams. So here is what FSU's resume looks like:


Wins (14)

Upcoming (12)

Losses (4)

#136 Jacksonville (Home)

(5) Georgia Tech (Home)

#79 Florida (Away)

#300 Stetson (Home)

(2) Duke (Away)

(5) Ohio State (Away)

#153 Mercer (Away)

#116 Boston College (Away)

#52 Maryland (Away)

#85 Iona (Neutral)

#52 Maryland (Home)

#102 NC State (Home)

#89 Alabama (Neutral)

#84 Miami (Home)


#67 Marquette (Neutral)

(5) Clemson (Away)


#265 Florida Int’l (Home)

#116 Boston College (Home)


#259 Georgia State (Home)

(13) Virginia (Away)


#175 Auburn (Home)

(6) North Carolina (Away)


(5) Georgia Tech (Away)

(5) Clemson (Home)


#330 Tenn. Martin (Home)

(8) Wake Forest (Home)


#347 Alabama A&M (Home)

#84 Miami (Away)


#179 Texas A&M CC (Home)



#63 Virginia Tech (Home)




As you can see, we have the toughest part of our schedule upcoming. We only have one win against a projected Tourney team (although OOC teams like Alabama and Marquette still have a shot so it makes sense to root for them to do well.) None of our losses are "bad" (yet-losing to NC State and Maryland clearly aren't preferenced but at the current moment, they wouldn't raise an eyebrow to the committee) and I think it's very likely that UF will creep into the Tourney field when all is said and done. The majority of our upcoming games are against likely tournament teams. This will bode very well for our SOS, which currently sits at 130. I predict our final SOS will likely be around 50-60 at the end of the season.

Going 8-8 in ACC play will likely put us square on the bubble, but I'm guessing most of you (and myself) will be satisfied only if the team gets 10 wins and secures a 6 seed or better. Nonetheless, let's call a 9-7 record our magic number. That is, it should be good enough to get us in (with lots of variables, of course.)

In my opinion, we have four "must win" games. That is, if we lose more than one of these games, getting to 9 wins will be difficult. We need to win both BC games, as well as the Maryland and Miami games at home. If we win those four that will give us 6 wins, and we just have to secure 3 wins in the remaining 8 games.

We are currently projected as a 10 seed by ESPN. As the season progresses, I will update this chart and discuss our odds and our resume heading into the NCAA Tournament.

Go 'Noles.

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