FanPost

2010 Season Predictions: Basketball Edition


There seems to be a lot of conflicting opinions about the quality and potential of the 2009-10 Seminole men's basketball team. They currently have posted a record of 14-4 overall and are 2-2 in conference play. The Seminoles took care of business for the most part during non-conference play, winning the Old Spice Classic Tournament and easily dispatching most of the lower tier teams they played. They did have two disappointing non-conference losses against Florida and Ohio State, where the team looked outmatched and struggled with shooting and turnovers. The team started conference play on a high note with an overtime win against Georgia Tech on the road. That was followed up with two frustrating losses to Maryland and NC State where the Noles could not find an answer to hot three point shooting. A win at home against Virginia Tech stopped the hemorrhaging and the conference is currently a free-for-all. With the parity thus far, the conference title is still up for the taking.

                                                     Florida State's Chris Singleton drives to the basket during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against North Carolina State, Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2010, in Tallahassee, Fla. North Carolina State won 88-81.

There are still many unanswered questions about the 2009-10 Seminoles. The team has a week between games before facing Georgia Tech at home on Saturday and it provides us an opportunity to look ahead and gauge our expectations. Does this year's team have what it takes to survive the grind of ACC Conference play? Can it improve upon, or even match last year's performance? Will this team make the NCAA tournament, and if so at what seeding will they get? This is your chance to go on record.

Photo from here.

First you need to do your homework!

A) If you aren't familiar with the Tomahawk Nation method of predicting wins, then you need to check out the 2009 football predictions article.

2) Read TrueCubbie's excellent ACC Basketball Preview and Predictions. It is very thorough!

D) Check out the charts below with Ken Pomeroy's team rankings and game predictions. You can find his statistical explanations here. When evaluating your predictions, keep in mind that there are variables the Pomeroy does not account for, such as Greivis Vasquez's flaming dance and the maturation of young teams under good coaching.

2010 Standings
Includes games through Monday, January 18

TeamOverallConfProjPomeroyAdjOAdjDAdjTNext Game
Virginia 12-4 3-0 8-8 .8632 53 113.7 25 96.9 108 63.5 322 Sat, at 39 Wake Forest (L, 71-65, 26%)
Duke 15-2 3-1 13-3 .9865 1 124.7 1 85.8 9 69.6 119 Wed, at 78 North Carolina St. (W, 80-66, 90%)
Clemson 15-3 3-1 10-6 .9448 15 110.4 49 86.3 12 70.2 88 Tue, at 25 Georgia Tech (L, 70-68, 42%)
Maryland 11-5 2-1 9-7 .9285 23 114.3 22 91.4 44 71.2 48 Tue, vs 300 Longwood (W, 99-64, 99%)
Georgia Tech 13-4 2-2 8-8 .9241 25 108.7 64 87.4 17 70.9 61 Tue, vs 15 Clemson (W, 70-68, 58%)
Florida St. 14-4 2-2 9-7 .9239 26 105.4 101 84.8 6 69.6 116 Sun, vs 25 Georgia Tech (W, 68-65, 66%)
Wake Forest 12-4 2-2 8-8 .9024 39 106.8 85 88.0 19 71.6 44 Wed, at 46 North Carolina (L, 79-75, 39%)
Virginia Tech 14-3 1-2 8-8 .9118 31 103.8 120 84.7 5 67.4 211 Sat, vs 84 Boston College (W, 67-57, 84%)
North Carolina 12-6 1-2 7-9 .8850 46 110.8 45 92.8 55 74.8 9 Wed, vs 39 Wake Forest (W, 79-75, 61%)
Miami FL 15-3 1-3 6-10 .8825 47 108.8 63 91.3 43 67.9 190 Tue, vs 84 Boston College (W, 70-62, 80%)
North Carolina St. 12-6 1-3 5-11 .8063 78 109.1 59 96.4 99 66.9 236 Wed, vs 1 Duke (L, 80-66, 10%)
Boston College 10-8 1-3 4-12 .7848 84 107.0 82 95.7 92 66.1 259 Tue, at 47 Miami FL (L, 70-62, 20%)

Standings from kenpom.com

2010 Schedule
(Game Plan)

DateOpponentResult  LocationRecordConf
Mon Nov 16 (145) Jacksonville W, 87-61 74   Home 1-0  
Wed Nov 18 (329) Stetson W, 80-38 65   Home 2-0  
Sat Nov 21 (183) Mercer W, 89-50 76   Away 3-0  
Tue Nov 24 (50) Florida L, 68-52 71   Away 3-1  
Thu Nov 26 (97) Iona W, 54-49 68   Neutral 4-1  
Fri Nov 27 (76) Alabama W, 60-51 54   Neutral 5-1  
Sun Nov 29 (17) Marquette W, 57-56 68   Neutral 6-1  
Wed Dec 2 (16) Ohio St. L, 77-64 71   Away 6-2  
Sun Dec 6 (297) Florida International W, 82-62 76   Home 7-2  
Tue Dec 15 (210) Georgia St. W, 62-55 59   Home 8-2  
Thu Dec 17 (143) Auburn W, 76-72 72   Home 9-2  
Sun Dec 20 (25) Georgia Tech W, 66-59 73 OT Away 10-2 1-0
Tue Dec 22 (319) Tennessee Martin W, 95-68 84   Home 11-2  
Thu Dec 31 (342) Alabama A&M W, 81-34 72   Home 12-2  
Mon Jan 4 (156) Texas A&M Corpus Chris W, 94-54 72   Home 13-2  
Sun Jan 10 (23) Maryland L, 77-68 64   Away 13-3 1-1
Tue Jan 12 (78) North Carolina St. L, 88-81 75   Home 13-4 1-2
Sat Jan 16 (31) Virginia Tech W, 63-58 71   Home 14-4 2-2
Sun Jan 24 (25) Georgia Tech W, 68-65 72 66% Home    
Wed Jan 27 (1) Duke L, 77-62 70 8% Away    
Sat Jan 30 (84) Boston College W, 66-63 67 64% Away    
Thu Feb 4 (23) Maryland W, 72-68 72 64% Home    
Sat Feb 6 (47) Miami FL W, 68-62 69 75% Home    
Wed Feb 10 (15) Clemson L, 69-63 71 27% Away    
Sun Feb 14 (84) Boston College W, 70-59 67 86% Home    
Wed Feb 17 (53) Virginia W, 65-64 64 50% Away    
Wed Feb 24 (46) North Carolina L, 74-72 76 45% Away    
Sun Feb 28 (15) Clemson W, 67-65 71 57% Home    
Wed Mar 3 (39) Wake Forest W, 70-64 73 71% Home    
Sat Mar 6 (47) Miami FL L, 66-65 69 46% Away    
Projected record: 21-9 9-7

Schedule from KenPom.com

 

Finished with your homework? Ok, let's get started! Here are my predictions.

 

December 20

at No. 15 Georgia Tech

100%

January 10

at Maryland

0%

January 12

North Carolina State

0%

January 16

Virginia Tech

100%

January 24

No. 18 Georgia Tech

60%

January 27

at No. 6 Duke

15%

January 30

at Boston College

70%

February 4

Maryland

80%

February 6

Miami (FL)

70%

February 10

at No. 16 Clemson

25%

February 14

Boston College

85%

February 17

at Virginia

70%

February 24

at No. 23 North Carolina

35%

February 28

No. 16 Clemson

65%

March 3

Wake Forest

75%

March 6

at Miami (FL)

50%

Total

 

9 Wins

Non-conference

 

12-2

Conference

 

9-7

Regular Season

 

21-9

ACC Tourney

 

1-1

NCAA Seed

 

8

What do you think? Post your predictions in the comments. Don't just throw an arbitrary number out there. Post your perceived win percentage for each game. Tourney seeds are tough to pin down, but give it a shot and if you are within a couple places, that is very respectable. Good Luck!

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