'Nole Your Opponents: Week 7

It's time again to take a look at Florida State's upcoming games.  Inside, we take a look at:

  • Is BC's defense still one of the best 20 in the country? 
  • How good is NC State?
  • Did Clemson outplay UNC and get out-coached again?!
  • How UF lost to LSU

Remember these charts are non-garbage time only.

Bc_at_ncst

Out-gaining BC by 63% per play is a dominant effort.  BC's offense is pretty much a joke at this point and it is really, really poorly coached.  On the flip side, BC is still playing very good defense.  5.2 per play on the road to a very good NC State offense is a very nice game.  

Here's grades from BTP.  ATLEagle has his viewing report.  Big stuff there.

NC State > Boston College +11.2. EqPts: NC St 23.3, BC 13.8. T/O Pts: NC St +1.7. Could've been much closer...BC's stumbling over selves.

 

Unc-clemson_non-garbage

Some criticized me for saying that I am more worried about Clemson than UNC.  Clemson has lost to three good teams (@ Auburn, Miami, and @ UNC).  Clemson's defense is still one of the best 15 in the country for my money and held UNC to 3.9 yards per play.  

Credit Butch Davis for being smart and going for 4th downs as the percentages say a team should do, while eschewing any potential media backlash.

UNC's defense is still good as you would expect from a Butch Davis team, but it is not the best in the country as it would have been had its players all not been professional$ while still in college.  

Our Clemson friends write that Clemson is poorly coached and that the gameplan was poor.  Clemson listened and will now give Ellington more carries, which is unfortunate for FSU and smart on Clemson's behalf.  

Here's the UNC take.  And another one.  

UNC > Clemson +1.0. EqPts: UNC 18.4, Clemson 17.4. T/O Pts: none. Clemson close to being pretty good ... and it's just not happening.

 

Lsu_at_uf_non-garbage

Everyone will focus on the fake field goal (which is dumb as heck because it implies that LSU's best play to gain a yard is a fake field goal), but the takeaway here is UF's horrible offense.  LSU out-gained UF by 26% per play!  Think about that.  FSU out-gained Miami by 28%.  If LSU had even passable special teams this one isn't close.  

Right now Florida is a mess.  Brantley is clearly injured as are some other key Gators.  It will be interesting to see what UF does when it gets its players back.  The defense is not in panic mode, however.  

No. 12 LSU 33, No. 14 Florida 29
EqPts: LSU 24.9, Florida 15.0
T/O Pts: LSU +1.9
LSU > Florida +11.8
A special teams touchdown allowed the seemingly outmanned Gators to stay close in this one.

 

 

No. 23 Florida State 45, No. 13 Miami 17
EqPts: Florida State 32.8, Miami 18.5
T/O Pts: Florida State +7.8
Florida State > Miami +21.1

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