ACC Bowl Projections & BlogPoll: Week 8
by onebarrelrum on Oct 19, 2010 10:08 AM EDT
in FSU Football
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PrintHere are this week's updated ACC Bowl projections. FSU is right between 9-3 and 10-2 but with some uncertainties regarding the team's health, a lean to 9-3 is probably more appropriate. This is not a projection of a loss to UF, but rather a 3-2 finish down the stretch. If FSU pulls off the win at NC State next Thursday, the 'Noles will be projected to go 10-2.
| Bowl Game | Last Week | This Week |
|---|---|---|
| Orange Bowl (ACC Champ) | FSU (9-3, 7-1) | FSU (9-3, 7-1) |
| Chick-fil-A Bowl ACC #2 v. SEC 3/4/5 | Miami (8-4, 6-2) | Miami (9-3, 6-2) |
| Champs Sports Bowl ACC #3 v. BE #2/ ND | Clemson (8-4, 5-3) | VT (8-4, 6-2) |
| Sun Bowl ACC #4 v. Pac 10 #4 | VT (8-4, 6-2) | NCST (8-4, 5-3) |
| Meineke Car Care Bowl ACC #5 v. Big East #3 | NCST (8-4, 4-4) | Clemson (7-5, 4-4) |
| Music City Bowl ACC #6 v. SEC 6/7/8 | GT (7-5, 5-3) | GT (7-5, 5-3) |
| Independence Bowl ACC #7 v. MWC #3 | UNC (6-6, 4-4) | UNC (7-5, 4-4) |
| EagleBank Bowl ACC #8 v. Army or C-USA #6 | BC (7-5, 4-4) | BC (6-6, 4-4) |
| Fight Hunger Bowl #9 | MD (6-6, 3-5) | MD (6-6, 3-5) |
Inside, find this week's blogpoll
I am excited to be taking over the blogpoll for Bud.
This is not a power poll. I don't attempt to rank teams based on how good I think they are. I only rank teams based on their resume. What have they done? Not how talented are their players or what other polls project them to do, but what have they done? The poll is designed to be dynamic. I try to start from scratch every week.
I do attempt to reward teams for "quality losses," while punishing them for poor performances. I do not give excessive credit for stomping horrible teams. I reward quality play, win or lose, particularly against other good teams. I am not bumping team A 10 spots and docking team B 10 spots when team A beats team B by a field goal in what was essentially an equally played game. I like to reward playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punish losing to poor teams more harshly than I reward defeating poor teams. To that end, TCU and Boise will probably not climb much higher in my poll for the rest of the year because they don't really play anyone. And if those two don't blow out the weak competition every week they will start to slip in addition to not climbing.
I Reward Grinders. I reward those who play difficult schedules. Teams that play a tough team every week don't get to spend extra time preparing for their tough games, and they also don't face the attrition other teams face because they are able to pull their starters in blowouts. Fewer plays for important players reduces the chance those players will get injured.
Change my mind using my criteria if you can.
TomahawkNation Ballot - Week 8
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auburn Tigers | |
| 2 | Oklahoma Sooners | |
| 3 | Oregon Ducks | |
| 4 | LSU Tigers | |
| 5 | Alabama Crimson Tide | |
| 6 | Michigan St. Spartans | |
| 7 | Boise St. Broncos | |
| 8 | Arizona Wildcats | |
| 9 | Florida St. Seminoles | |
| 10 | TCU Horned Frogs | |
| 11 | Iowa Hawkeyes | |
| 12 | Mississippi St. Bulldogs | |
| 13 | South Carolina Gamecocks | |
| 14 | Wisconsin Badgers | -- |
| 15 | Ohio St. Buckeyes | |
| 16 | Oklahoma St. Cowboys | |
| 17 | Missouri Tigers | -- |
| 18 | Stanford Cardinal | |
| 19 | Miami Hurricanes | -- |
| 20 | Arkansas Razorbacks | |
| 21 | Virginia Tech Hokies | -- |
| 22 | West Virginia Mountaineers | -- |
| 23 | Utah Utes | -- |
| 24 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | |
| 25 | Texas Longhorns | -- |
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings "
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Please explain...
if you said, “This is not a projection of a loss to UF, but rather a 3-2 finish down the stretch.” how then can we have 3 losses but only 1 in ACC? Unless you include a loss to UF. Other than UF we only play ACC teams for the rest of the year so we would have at least 2 ACC losses to be 9-3 right?
"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." - Samuel Johnson
have us winning 3.4 more games
2.9 more in the ACC
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Oct 19, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
What are your specifics for each win probability
How has UF changed
I got us at
NCST-.5
UNC-.6
Clemson-.75
Mary-.875
UF-.6
3.325 more wins.
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Mine for fun
NC State .6
UNC .7
Clemson .75
Maryland .75
UF .55
I still think UF is the most dangerous game of them all for us. Particularly if we’re in the ACC title game. The last couple of games, we’ve given away the home field advantage against them, as well.
Maryland could be tougher for us, “let down” plus playing up there, it could be cold (weather was brutal up there two years ago!), etc.
The math says we win less than 4 of those but in my gut, I think we win 4 of these last 5.
I agree for just about everything you say...IMO all depends on QB play
QB play improves/Ponder is healthy, EJ is healthy we could win 4,or more but if continues be a bit on the mediocre side because of injuries or whatever we get 3 wins
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
There is zero chance we are a coin toss on the road to beat NCState. JMO
I think they are getting too much credit for having an explosive offense without realizng they Russelle turnover prone and the O is inconsistent due to lacke of line play on both sides. Unless we turn the ballover we should win…more to the tune of .60 – .70 range.
We win by more than 3 on a nuetral field.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
I gave us 50% based on
A. Thursday night, I just get nervous on Thursday nights
2. QB situation. Mediocre/Health or otherwise. less than Ideal
d. Thursday night @ Raleigh….I didn’t really have 3 points…
If either Ponder or EJ is 100% I say we are at .65
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really the question
I think the question is, what is our record on Saturdays versus what is our record on Thursdays?
On a percentage basis, I would guess that our record on Saturdays has been much better than on Thursdays over the ACC years.
Then again, myabe it’s because our highest profile losses have been on Thursday?
Interesting recent Thursday night history
2002: Lost to Louisville WITHOUT a BYE the week before (Duke)
2002: Won, beating Clemson with Thursday night game the week before (Louisville)
2003: None
2004: Won, beating NCState WITHOUT a BYE the week before (Duke)
2005: None
2006: Lost to NCSTATE WITH a BYE the week before
2007: Lost to WF WITHOUT a BYE the week before (NCState)
2008: Won, beating NCState WITH a BYE the week before
2009: Won, beating UNC WITH a BYE the week before
2010: ? with a BYE the week before
So from 2002-2009 (looked at ESPN and their schedules end at 2002) we are 4-3 on Thursday night games. With a BYE the week before, we are 2-1, With a Thursday night game the week before, we are 1-0. With a game on the prior Saturday, we are 1-2.
While these numbers aren’t overwhelming due to the small sample size (and there is variability in personnel, strength of opponent, strength of prior/subsequent opponents, etc.), I think this shows that a Thursday game is not the problem – a short week is the problem (less rest and less time to plan). I also wonder how much having CJF will affect things.
Note: we are 2-1 against NCState on Thursdays (Won, Lost, Won) and of these we are 1-1 with a BYE the week before (Lost, Won)
And that 2006 NC State team we lost to
finished the season 3-8. Ouch.
and was coached by amatto
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
NCState's Thursday night history
2002: Won, destroying Clemson WITHOUT a BYE the week before (Duke)
2003: Lost to Clemson WITHOUT a BYE the week before (UCONN)
2004: Lost to FSU WITHOUT a BYE the week before (GT)
2005: Won, beating GT WITH a BYE the week before
2005: Lost badly to Clemson with Thursday night game the week before (GT)
2006: Won, beating FSU WITH a BYE the week before
2007: None
2008: Lost badly to South Carolina to begin season
2008: Lost to FSU WITH a BYE the week before
2009: Lost to South Caroline to begin the season
2010: ? with a BYE the week before
Again 2002-2009. NCState is 3-6 on Thursday night games. With a BYE the week before, they are 2-1. To open the season, they are 0-2. With a Thursday night game the week before, they are 0-1. With a game on the prior Saturday, they are 1-2.
Very similar to FSU, except the season-openers and the 2nd of back-to-back Thursday games.
Note: they are 1-2 against FSU (Lost, Won, Lost) and of these they are 1-1 with a BYE the week before (Won, Lost)
Whoops, missed that
I didn’t even think about any games this year. They also played UCF the Saturday before. That makes them 4-6 on Thursday night games and 2-2 with a game on the prior Saturday.
um we have not won the last 2 at NCST
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I hear you. I just think if either Ponder or EJ is at 85% we still win due to the matchup.
They aere dangerous but we match up very well in my opinion. Fisher should be able to run and pass without having to call risky plays, and move the ball rather easily on them.
AND I trust our defense to significantly slow them down…not stop them.
I also think we don’t have a turnover situation lie that the rest of the year, and that people are just a little bit over-selling Ponders poor performance. It was bad, and he cannot keep that up. But he didn’t play quite as badly as most feel when you rewatche the tape(i have twice) and he’s not likley to repeat the perfomance based on history.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
Is EJ suffering from some kind of injury that I'm not aware of?
I was under the impression that EJ was back to 100% but I have seen a couple times people saying if Ponder or EJ are 100% that we look good. Is EJ not 100%?
I believe he is injured and was not available at all for BC
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Oct 19, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
It's difficult to discuss this logically because we don't know if you have information you can't share.
I think if you do in the future it should just be tabled. just my thoughts.
That said if you do, I’m wrong, if you don’t then I’ll go out on a limb and say i disagree.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
Agree'd
if its based on info you can’t share then there is no point bringing it up, hurts the team and doesn’t help you since you can’t disclose.
if its 100% theory well then i guees ok, but it seems to also hurt the team since some might take it as inside info and since you havent dismissed it as such cp might take cheap shots bc of it if word travels which it inevitable does on the interwebs
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Oct 19, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree with the statistics
but you should include the loss in the ACC record since you are implying that we are going to lose to UF when the stats show that the loss doesnt neccessarily have to come from them but could be in conference…. but then again it doesnt really matter. 42.7 percent of statistics are made up on the spot.
Why are you rewarding a team with 2 cupcake wins over a team with only one?
Auburn-Wins over Ark State & LA-Monroe
OU-Win over Utah State
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
auburns body of work is fairly good
Wins over Arkansas, South Carolina, Clemson.
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
So is OU's
They stomped us by 30
Also, beat both Texas and a now-ranked Air Force team.
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
I agree totally. I think it is difficult to differentiate these two teams
I think OU is the better team overall however and think that will prove out over the course of the season.
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
What stats are you looking at?
Based on S&P
AU O – 1
OU O – 12
AU D – 46
OU D – 21
FSU: Bowl Eligible
by Jamil Dawson on Oct 19, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
plus OU's win over Iowa State isn't that impressive either
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Iowa State's a Big 12 conference game and OU beat them 52-0
Are you REALLY advocating discounting conference games?
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
Correct.
Conference game yes…but @ home against their weaker version of Duke. Look at what Iowa state has done this year…pretty feeble resume.
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Please-Iowa State ain't Duke.
Losses to three top-10-ranked teams and a close one on the road to K State?
That’s a tough schedule, not a feeble resume. With contests against 6 ranked teams, Iowa State plays one of the toughest schedules in the nation this year.
Not saying they oughta be ranked, but when you compare schedules, they’re definitely not a “weaker version of Duke.” Duke still sucks against bad teams, Iowa State doesn’t. Give them Duke’s schedule and they win at least 7, instead of hoping to win 5.
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
So you are saying that a program that has had one winning season
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
So you are saying that a program that has had one winning season
in 5 years is worth recognizing as a relative force. a long history of .500% winning percentages or worse….a good year for them is 500% ball…they are mediocre.
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
all I am saying is iowas state is on the same level as Utah State.
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
But OU HAS to play them-They're in conference.
They don’t have a choice in playing ISU. That’s a part of their slate of conference games. They DO have a choice to play someone better than Utah State, which is why I counted them as a cupcake and not ISU.
Auburn, meanwhile, had a choice to play teams tougher than BOTH Arky St and LA-Monroe. Yet of the games they have control over, they chose to play easier teams than OU’s OOC games. That keeps them below OU in my book, below Oregon, and probably level with Boise and/or TCU.
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
Fair enough I see your point.
but teams shouldn’t be looked at by only their OOC play.
BC lucked out this year with their in conference schedule and should be punished accordingly for having the cupcakes of the ACC
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
It's not about who they choose to play OOC
Otherwise, Boise St. (VT, Oregon State, and games they have to play) would have to get more credit than Auburn (Clemson and games they have to play).
You have to look at the schedule up to this point. Auburn has beaten stronger teams so far. You could make some arguments about margin of victory and get into stats, but I think Auburn beats out Oklahoma based upon schedule.
win over arky more impressive than wkn over FSU?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Probably
Arky looked like they could challenge Bama until the end. FSU (outside of that first possesion) was never in the game with OU
Arky lost to Kentucky we have not last to anyone else.,.. just throwin that out there.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
Ark played Kentucky??
Did you mean lost to Bama/Auburn?
I would also rather play OU and Miami than Bama and Auburn, so I don’t know if us being undefeated otherwise is really that impressive in comparison
Black out moment... I'm back...now if I could just find a napkin to wipe the drool off of my face.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
It’s more likely that the win over Duke pushed them from something like 8.4 wins to just over 8.5 wins.
This
It is a VERY rare thing for teams to have a 100% chance to win.
100% chance equals being favored by something like 35 points.
Miami didn’t have a 100% chance to beat Duke, they probably only had something like an 85% chance, which is still being favored by a lot of points.
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
Not sure I agree with Miss. State's ranking so high over just wins over UF and UGA
Two teams not quite playing up to par this year.
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
By that logic we should be ranked lower than 9th
FSU: Bowl Eligible
by Jamil Dawson on Oct 19, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think we should be at 9
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
6-0 with a win over #21. Where should they be?
by norcal_nole on Oct 19, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
#21 being?
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Oct 19, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he means Va Tech
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
How about 6-0 with wins over then-#10 VT and then-#24 Oregon State?
Also have bigger blowouts against their cupcake conference teams than AQ teams have against some of those same teams. They’re making teams that suck look like they suck-that’s the sign of a solid team.
History also helps. Boise has sustained their success over a period of years. That does count for something in the eyes of voters.
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
I agree...
What does “AQ teams” mean
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Look at VT and OSU resumes
OSU got ranked the week before the BSU game to boost the ratings.
They do deserver to be in the top 20 but in the 17-20 range IMO
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Oct 19, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I like that they are at least out of the top 5 on this list
At first, I wanted them much lower, but now I think I am OK with 7. BSU needs to be ranked above TCU because they have similar resumes except for VT. Oklahoma State and Missouri also fall into this boat (undefeated with no good wins). If you want to drop BSU then I think you need to drop these three teams further. I think 17-20 might be too far for BSU because that puts these teams on the cusp of being ranked. I don’t think an undefeated team should be dropped THAT far for having a weaker schedule. BSU could be in the 10-15 range, but I wouldn’t go further.
This will all shake out as more games are played. BSU will fall as they play nobody and TCU/Utah will leave us with only 1 non-AQ up there. Also, Missouri plays Oklahoma this weekend (with Nebraska the weekend after) and Oklahoma St. plays Nebraska this weekend (with Oklahoma and Texas down the road).
Its pretty easy to blow out bad teams when you dont have to play good teams that beat your team up.
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Oct 19, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
True! AND motivation is not an issue for them.
they are in a unique situation where they can keep the team motivated easily because they NEED to blow these teams out.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
You can't have it both ways.
You can’t say that BSU doesn’t deserve to have a shot because they aren’t playing anybody, but then when they play ranked teams and beat them, your answer still can’t be because they “don’t play anybody so of course they win”. You’ve got to give them credit at some point because they ARE living up to the criteria you are setting out for them.
Also, BSU hasn’t had down weeks. They’re constantly blowing people out week after week. You can argue that they can’t have any if they want a shot at the Crystal Ball. And I’m sorry, but emotions flag eventually. You can’t be “up” for every single game-it’s just not sustainable. After their 20th straight victory-including 4 wins over ranked teams-I think I’m on pretty safe ground by saying that they’re probably a better team than you guys think they are and probably ought to get a shot at a top team.
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
I wonder if UNC can keep its O going without their TE, didn't he have the team high receptions
"FEAR is just the Opening ACT!!!" Coach Coley
I like this point, especially when Butch brings the UM mindset of using the tightend
like nobody’s business.
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
The winner of Auburn/LSU goes to 1 next week, the loser goes to what, 8?
I find it humorous that Auburn and LSU folks are concerned about where they are currently ranked, as I just see no way either of them finish the year without a loss. Especially LSU, who still has AU, Bama and Arkansas left…
I’m hopeful that UGa is getting it together for Halloween weekend and if so, Auburn has tough sledding left having to play Bama, UGa and LSU still.
virginia tech over nebraska is criminal
Like it or not, v-tech lost to a division 1aa team. Nebraska only has one loss to a good texas team. Blowout wins over Kansas st and washington compare to v-tech beating ncstate and ecu.
WAR PAINT OF TN
by Zach_Nole on Oct 19, 2010 11:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Texas is not the normal Texas...at least not to this point in the year... also VT has two losses(Boise)
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
Nebraska doesn't have a single good win the entire year
Their schedule is almost as bad as boise’s
Yes they do
If going by the BCS rankings. Neb is 1-1 against the BCS top 25. VT is 0-1. Just sayin.
FSU: Bowl Eligible
by Jamil Dawson on Oct 19, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Nebraska hasn't beaten a BCS top 25,
They’ve beaten Western Kentucky, Idaho, Washington, South Dakota State, and Kansas State, none of which are BCS top 25. Not saying they’re a bad team, just that their schedule is incredibly soft and they don’t have a meaningful victory to date.
My fault, glossed over Kansas State
Even though I think Kansas State is pretty awful and a result of a weak schedule, your point remains valid
If ou beats mizzou they drop
huh? i dont think so
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Oct 19, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Depends how OU wins...
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
they beat a top 15 team and drop, i dotn see it
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Oct 19, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Mizzou will drop...
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
right, but he said the winner of AU LSU is #1
next week. barring an ou loss that wont happen
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Oct 19, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Ahhh sorry, misunderstood,
OU you ain’t dropping anywhere…
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
meaning Mizzou will drop just depends how far on how OU wins.
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, but the people polls didn't put them at #1. Computers did. They keep winning & We keep winning, they stay. Not to mention
Texas may end up back in their before long (if they aren’t now).
If Auburn wins out they'll jump OU in the computers
I expect AU to jump OU in the computers if they beat LSU.
FSU: Bowl Eligible
by Jamil Dawson on Oct 19, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I think so.
Auburn is .900 in computers. LSU is .940. Oklahoma is .980, but their opponent, Missouri, is only .790. But Oklahoma would still probably remain higher in the BCS due to being ranked a little higher than LSU in the polls.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
I think so
But only because of the strength of Auburn’s and LSU’s schedules. Missouri has a poor schedule so far and beating them is not as good as beating Auburn/LSU.
I was refering to this poll only
Auburn is 1 in this poll playing number 4. So if AU wins, they’ll stay 1 IN THIS POLL, I suspect.
And as THIS POLL is rarely, if ever, static, I would expect LSU at 4 to go to 1 IN THIS POLL.
Make sense now?
Even in our bye week we automatically move up in rankings.
No. 13 Wisconsin at No. 15 Iowa, and No. 16 Nebraska at No. 14 Oklahoma State.
with a chance of other teams loosing.
No. 1 Oklahoma at No. 11 Missouri < look better for us if OU looks good as no.1
I don’t think we deserve to move up in rankings but i would take it way more than say, having a bye week and rank worse than 17. thoughts?
by Johnathan Blackburn on Oct 19, 2010 11:29 AM EDT reply actions
If teams lose ahead of us we deserve to move up. They will eventually have bye weeks as well.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
Why not?
I don’t think we deserve to move up in rankings
FSU: Bowl Eligible
by Jamil Dawson on Oct 19, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Either way
If FSU wins out we still go to the National Championship
Ice Cold Kool Aid here!
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sharkleberry Fin? That's My Favorite!!
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
In my best Stewie Griffin voice. .......
“Say whaaaaaaaaat?”
From here on out, i only have one ho.........that's sweet lady propane. And i'm tricking her out all over town. -Hank Hill
We have a shot but only if a lot of other crazy stuff happens.
by no means do we control our NC destiny
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Oct 19, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
So your sayin there's a chance?;)
From here on out, i only have one ho.........that's sweet lady propane. And i'm tricking her out all over town. -Hank Hill
Thaaaats what I was drivin at.
From here on out, i only have one ho.........that's sweet lady propane. And i'm tricking her out all over town. -Hank Hill
Its a longshot but still better than 1 in 100
There is no reason to really think about it as a realistic happening this year with the amount of help needed but it is not outside of the realms of possibility I would say if we win out its more like a 1 in 80 to 1 in 90 chance. That said at the end of the year because of our past reputation and more importantly ratings draw we can leap frog a number of teams that are ahead of us currently with one loss like Iowa and Stanford, a no loss Utah. The hard part is a 1 loss Oklahoma, 1 loss Oregon, Wisconsin, tOSU, Bama, and Nebraska will be almost impossible to pass.
So you're sayin there's still a chance?
YEAHHHH!!!!!!
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
Just because it's fun to talk about...
I took the liberty of putting together a table of all the things that would have to happen, and the odds of those happening, for us to jump all of those teams…
College # losses Odds
LSU 2+ 80%
BSU 1+ 15%
TCU 1+ 20%
OK 2+ 15%
AU 2+ 50%
AL 2+ 50%
WI 2+ 90%
OSU 2+ 50%
OR 2+ 50%
NE 2+ 60%
Total 0.0122%
Ratio 1/8230
I guess we only have to jump one team, so it’s probably more like a 1/4115 chance IF we win out. Please feel free to continue to hope for that. I will settle for hoping for the Orange Bowl.
by SDnole on Oct 19, 2010 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
So you're saying there's a chance
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Oct 19, 2010 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not the right tool for the job
The pure odds are not appropriate since there are so many match-up between teams above us that are basically strings of elimination games. For example while there is currently 3 SEC teams ranked ahead of us there at best can only be one ahead of us at the end of the regular season before conference championships. The Big 12 is similar but much harder to judge on what needs to happen right since Neb plays both OSU and Mizzou and OSU also plays Oklahoma and the winner of the latter will most likely play the winner of Neb-Mizzou.
by TheJim on Oct 19, 2010 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd SDnole and TheJim for a logical posit and retort.
Intriguing discussion. My thinking is more closely aligned with TheJim; I think a lot of those teams get squeezed into common bottlenecks.
For our part, we must run the table from here, crush UF, and either throttle VT or UM in the ACCCG — and that Coastal rep MUST dominate the rest of its schedule as well, climbing into a top 15 ranking.
So the odds are still miniscule, but I think better than 1/4000+
what was with all that one in a million talk earlier?
Process > Results
by TBfisherman on Oct 19, 2010 12:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That is a pretty good poll there
LSU will soon get what they need. They will lose to Alabama, Auburn and Arkansas.
We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable! "Get used to it, get used to winning"....Jimbo Fisher
And it came to pass that when Jimbo came down from Mount Saban..
He had the two tablets of Process in his hands. And when all the children of ACC saw Jimbo, behold, his face shone with the knowledge of Process, and they were afraid to set their teams nigh unto his out of fear of defeat.
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
3 er ah two tablets
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Oct 19, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't believe no one here has brought it up so I will
If Dawkins is out or is now ineffective due to his broken thumb, I say we stumble a little bit down the stretch. We are very thin to begin with on the DL with a rotation of four guys that are actually able and ready to play. Knock that down to three and we have some issues. I hope Dawkins can still be effective cause he has been BIG TIME this year. Arguably our best DT. One could argue for McDaniel as well. So Bud or anybody have any news on his playing status and how the injury will affect him?
Didn't he play part of the BC game with it broken
I guess I just assume he did, if it broke during the game. Gotta think he’ll be okay for NCSt
Why are you assuming he is out?
They put the pin in this morning and I have every reason to believe he will play.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Cast him up and let er rip
Having a club for an arm isnt much a of disadvantage for a DT IMO
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Oct 19, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly what I was thinking.
Everette gets to go clubbing.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Oct 19, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
ALABAMA
IS WAY OVERRATED. WHAT have they done up to date……..
beat a awful san jose state team
beat a awful and overrated penn state
beat duke…
barely had to beat a overrated arkansas who got handled by auburn
beat down a florida team that was closer than score showed….a florida team that has lost…
GOT DOMINATED AND embarrassed by south carolina who cant beat kentucky
ugly win against ole miss.
please tell me HOW bama is 5. they were overrated at 1 to start season, and bc of that they will be able to linger around when they dont deserve to sit in top 10
now saying that
how is south carolina 13. they should be bottom tire top 25.
miss st. is way too high.
You clearly didn't watch the Arkansas/Auburn game if you think Arkansas was "handled" by Auburn.
And Alabama played 3 quality opponents in 3 weeks, 2 of them on the road. You really think they’re “WAY OVERRATED”? That’s fine, but most won’t agree with you.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
My Name is OneBarrelRum
and I approved this message.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Oct 19, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah i watched it
and though auburns defense is as talented as alabamas. BAMAs offense is one dimensional. they are losing players to injurys down the stretch, they are exactly what i predicted pre season. a lack luster kicking game, problems at qb, if theyre oline doesnt play well they are no better than iowa. this team is lucky to even be sitting where its at now. if they didnt win a national championship last year, this team wouldnt even be in the top 10. a road game against arkansas is as overrated as this arkansas team.
back to auburn the better team truely showed its colors. arkansas had the lead and blew it against bama, the auburn game was just a old fashioned shoot out, but auburn by everyones eyes is the far better team.
Everyones' eyes my a**.
Auburn would have lost, at home, to a BACKUP qb if the replay booth didn’t royally hose Arkansas TWICE.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
He meant everyones "ayes"
they all took a vote in his living room.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Oct 19, 2010 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Auburn will be a dog at the end of the year against Bama
Lead us in a few words of a silent prayer-Bill Peterson
by PalmAireNole on Oct 19, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
10 point dog as of Yesterday
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Auburn's defense is as talented as Bama's
cheerleaders.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Oct 19, 2010 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
So, let me see if I got this right
Bama = overrated
Arkansas = overrated
S. Carolina = overrated
UF = just plain bad
LSU = not even gonna ask
Summary = SEC sucks. Nice, but ridiculous.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Oct 19, 2010 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
lolol Auburn's defense as talented as Alabama's
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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