ACC Bowl Projections & BlogPoll Week 6
by Bud Elliott on Oct 5, 2010 1:46 PM EDT
in FSU Football
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PrintAnother week means another revision to the ACC Bowl Projections! Here they are:
| Bowl Game | Week 6 |
|---|---|
| Orange Bowl (ACC Champ) | Miami (9-3, 6-2) |
| Chick-fil-A Bowl ACC #2 v. SEC 3/4/5 | FSU (8-4, 6-2) |
| Champs Sports Bowl ACC #3 v. BE #2/ ND | Clemson (7-5, 5-3) |
| Sun Bowl ACC #4 v. Pac 10 #4 | VT (8-4, 6-2) |
| Meineke Car Care Bowl ACC #5 v. Big East #3 | N.C.ST (8-4, 4-4) |
| Music City Bowl ACC #6 v. SEC 6/7/8 | GT (7-5, 5-3) |
| Independence Bowl ACC #7 v. MWC #3 | UNC (6-6, 4-4) |
| EagleBank Bowl ACC #8 v. Army or C-USA #6 | BC (7-5, 4-4) |
| Fight Hunger Bowl #9 | MD (6-6, 3-5) |
It's probably better for the ACC if Maryland trips up against Wake Forest at home. I think the ACC would be favored in 6 or 7 of the 8 games, but Maryland would not help the conference with a 9th team. This week we see BC get its win projection dumped to 7-5 and Clemson to 7-5. There are no other changes this week.
Inside, find my top 25 and tell me where I am wrong.
This is not a power poll. I don't attempt to rank teams based on how good I think they are. I only rank teams based on their resume. What have they done? Not how talented are their players or what other polls project them to do, but what have they done? The poll is designed to be dynamic. I try to start from scratch every week.
I do attempt to reward teams for "quality losses," while punishing them for poor performances. I do not give excessive credit for stomping horrible teams. I reward quality play, win or lose, particularly against other good teams. I am not bumping team A 10 spots and docking team B 10 spots when team A beats team B by a field goal in what was essentially an equally played game. I like to reward playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punish losing to poor teams more harshly than I reward defeating poor teams. To that end, TCU and Boise will probably not climb much higher in my poll for the rest of the year because they don't really play anyone. And if those two don't blow out the weak competition every week they will start to slip in addition to not climbing.
I Reward Grinders. I reward those who play difficult schedules. Teams that play a tough team every week don't get to spend extra time preparing for their tough games, and they also don't face the attrition other teams face because they are able to pull their starters in blowouts. Fewer plays for important players reduces the chance those players will get injured.
TomahawkNation Ballot - Week 6
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -- |
| 2 | Oregon Ducks | -- |
| 3 | Ohio St. Buckeyes | -- |
| 4 | Oklahoma Sooners |  3 |
| 5 | Auburn Tigers | 1 |
| 6 | Arizona Wildcats | 2 |
| 7 | LSU Tigers |  -3 |
| 8 | TCU Horned Frogs | 2 |
| 9 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 2 |
| 10 | Miami Hurricanes | 10 |
| 11 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 5 |
| 12 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 11 |
| 13 | Stanford Cardinal | -8 |
| 14 | Florida Gators | -5 |
| 15 | South Carolina Gamecocks | -3 |
| 16 | Utah Utes | -3 |
| 17 | Michigan Wolverines | -3 |
| 18 | Boise St. Broncos | -3 |
| 19 | Michigan St. Spartans | -- |
| 20 | Nevada Wolf Pack | 1 |
| 21 | Air Force Falcons | -3 |
| 22 | Oklahoma St. Cowboys | -- |
| 23 | Florida St. Seminoles | -- |
| 24 | Missouri Tigers | 1 |
| 25 | Clemson Tigers | -6 |
| Dropouts: N.C. State Wolfpack, Mississippi St. Bulldogs, USC Trojans | ||
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings "
So... you have 20 hours to change my mind using my criteria. Go.
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OU's D is ranked 95 in the NCAA after week 4
I don’t see them up there for long.
"…You can't get enough Lonnie Pryors on your football team." -Eddie Gran
Big drop for UF losing to #1
"…You can't get enough Lonnie Pryors on your football team." -Eddie Gran
Poor performance
Teams get punished for poor performance even against good teams.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
MehI don;t think that poor, the problem is the matchup
UF’s O needs to stay close early. Its a grind them out O, if they get behind its going to be hard for them to catch up. not to mention their best O player was more or less for that game vs #1 D in the ncaa
"…You can't get enough Lonnie Pryors on your football team." -Eddie Gran
more or less out for that game
"…You can't get enough Lonnie Pryors on your football team." -Eddie Gran
After the failed Tebow-lite jump pass,
they looked helpless. ‘Bama did what they want when they wanted. We looked bad at Okla. but I really think they looked worse at ’Bama. They couldn’t even bring down Ingram/Richardson half the time… the ref would have to blow the play dead on forward progress.
OU has the number 95 D in the nations and we looked like a highschool school for backward team
Alabama has the number 1 D and looks like it.
"…You can't get enough Lonnie Pryors on your football team." -Eddie Gran
They lost by 30ish and couldnt do anything
I’m really not seeing where you don’t see that as a poor performance?
If they is UF...
They had equal yardage as Bama and minus 4 in turnovers. It was a poor performance, but I consider ours against OU to be clearly worse.
To me , its similar (tho not equal to bc Bama had a strong YPP difference over UF) to BYU 2009, where people say we smoked them but BYU had 9.8 YPP and was -6 in turnovers.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Oct 5, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Ours was clearly worse
This isn’t debatable.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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statistically, sure.
But didn’t you predict that we were going to get smoked? I think when you consider 1) overall gator obnoxious cockiness and 2) UF ranking (preseason 3rd overall), that getting beat that bad on the big stage is worse for them.
I’m not really defending our play in Norman as much pointing out the significance of the respective losses.
I can agree with that
I said 38-20 for Bama over UF.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Actually I think it is...
Now, I’m no expert by any stretch of the imagination but when we lost to OK they were ranked 7 (AP) and 9 (USAToday) and we weren’t ranked at all, so by the ranking scheme we weren’t supposed to do very well. However in the UF/Bama game Bama was 1 (AP&USAToday) and UF was ranked 7 (AP&USAToday). So by that same ranking scheme they should have done a lot better than 6 points. Therefore I think there terrible game play was much worse than our terrible game play…Just my opinion.
"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." - Samuel Johnson
If you factor in how good we are v. how good UF is, sure
I was just speaking of the degree of beatdown
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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If you factor in how good we are v. how good UF is, sure
I was just speaking of the degree of beatdown
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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pretty sure we were ranked going into Norman.
From here on out, i only have one ho.........that's sweet lady propane. And i'm tricking her out all over town. -Hank Hill
Maybe...
we were ranked 17 and I read the polls wrong on the ESPN web site. Like I said I’m no expert by any stretch of the imagination and now I guess my comprehension is bad too…crap.
Either way i ahte Florida and their’s is worse 8-)
"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." - Samuel Johnson
Go back and look at
the Drive Chart that Bud posted before garbage time. It was a poor performance, albeit against a very good team.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
I do think UF had a bad luck play and a blatant pass interference that was missed in the endzone that really affected the game.
That almost touchdown UF had looked like a touchdown to me, but the guy’s knees were obstructed from view in the replay, so there was no way you could overturn the call of no touchdown. And then later in the game the obvious blown PI call. Not that I mind the current perception. And that offense of theirs is atrocious. Or at least the playcalling and packages (Brantley running the option, eh?).
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
HA
yeah, there were some real head scratchers for the UF offense.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
Stanford with better win and 20-pt blowout loss
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Really?
I really enjoy reading Tomahawk Nation until you start posting this ACC Bowl stuff. FSU 8-4/6-2 really??? You can’t be serious. I applaud you for trying an unbiased poll based on FSU’s resume, but that doesn’t work this season. 2 losses in the ACC? Miami, maybe. Besides that the ACC is very weak and will not go far against “FSU 2010” no tto be mistaken with “FSU 2009,8,7,etc”. We take UM by a slight margin and go 10-2 and undefeated in the ACC. NC State is overrated.
I don't have a problem with FSU w 2 losses.
NC St i think will end up with 3 tho not 4
"…You can't get enough Lonnie Pryors on your football team." -Eddie Gran
I'd say that 1 loss in the ACC is about as likely as 4 losses in the ACC.
2-3 is much more likely than 1 or 4.
Agreed - NC State needs more luv
they have three tough ACC games left – Bud has them losing all of them
Here's what I have for NC State
65.0% BC
32.5% FSU
27.5% at Clem
85.0% WF
40.0% at UNC
60.0% at MD
I see 3-3 down the ACC stretch for them. Off base?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Raleigh disagrees, the word around here is that they win out the ACC. They think I'm crazy when I tell them to watch out for Clemson.
"FEAR is just the Opening ACT!!!" Coach Coley
Clemson better run game and much better D than VTech...
Clemson will trounce NC State unless it’s a lookahead etc
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Their argument against me was that Clemson allowed Mia to score 30, but I guess they'll wake up come Nov. 6.
"FEAR is just the Opening ACT!!!" Coach Coley
Turnovers
Clemson had 6; tough to win a game with that number in your stat line. A quick review of the game highlights last night and Clemson handed that game to UM…I know UM has a stout D but too close with 6 turnovers.
Can't fault your methodology...However..
I think they win one (at least) of the games they are underdogs – and all three of the ones they are favored.
Also using your methodology of expected win % – if they win all three – WF, BC and MD games then they pick up almost a point on the expect win % – .35 + .4 + .15 (using your numbers – which I think are low for BC and MD) – this doesn’t change there chances in their underdog games which equals about 1 – so the record becomes 5-3
But can we really assume they win all three?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Can't pick and choose
if doing expected wins, use it for the games where they will be favored too.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
But what happens after they actually win those three games
then the expected wins equals a 5-3 record
If they win them, sure
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I could ask you the same thing
What happens when they lose the 3 games they are underdogs in? Then their Win loss record looks more like 3-5.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
I'm thinking you are selling them a little short
I think NC State has better than a 32.5% chance to beat us…more like 40% and I would give them 35% at Clemson and 50% at UNC. Also, 70% against BC and 70% at MD.
50% at UNC implies they are better than UNC on a neutral field
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I am assuming you don't think that they are?
I would pick NC State to beat UNC on a neutral field.
No I think UNC is the best team in the conference if it has its players
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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That is a HUGE if right now
I cannot think of a more catastrophic situation than what has happened at UNC this season. They will claw and scratch a couple wins out this season, but nothing close to what they were supposed to do if they are still missing all those players.
FSU game...
Worse teams have beaten better FSU teams on a Thursday night. I LOVE Thursday night football, but really hate it when it involves the Noles on the road as a favorite.
I would put the number at closer to 45% for NC State rather than the 32.5% against the Noles. I’m not sure I’d put the number so low at Clemson either. Call it the Dabo-effect if you’d like.
Their D is awful. Period. Also there O-line is suspect... and we're good to go isf we ram it down their throats on the ground, while capping the run for them.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
we were lucky to win last year at home
Both Ds are better this year
Last year's game was rediculous
I couldn’t update my phone fast enough to even get drive breakdowns. It was…refresh TOUCHDOWN…refresh TOUCHDOWN…refresh TOUCHDOWN….
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Oct 5, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. I have us at 2.5 losses, so with a little luck we could come out with only 2. I can't imagine what FSU could do with some Les Miles' luck.
"FEAR is just the Opening ACT!!!" Coach Coley
AND
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Oct 5, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec for Archer reference
So you can run and tell that, homeboy.
by Tubby Sweetbundle on Oct 5, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Needed a good laugh this afternoon.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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how about
The Fight Hunger Bowl with Ralph Freidgen in it?
I got a chuckle out of that.
by LincolnHighNole on Oct 5, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Late by a week but it is a good one
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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See what happens
when I work and miss an article here?
Thanks for not embarrassing me too bad Bud.
by LincolnHighNole on Oct 6, 2010 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions
is this a troll?
i honestly can’t tell.
if so, well played sir.
by ArsonistSavior on Oct 5, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
NC State is a thursday night road game. Enough said.
Mike Martin should go coach Hawaii. Then he could have all the poi's he ever wanted - MattDNole
I believe Bud preached 8-4 before season began
and the only “team” we played smoked us. Now that we are getting into the tough part of the schedule, an upset over miami may sway his prediction. until then we havent done a whole bunch
Clemson is a good team,
they really should have beat Auburn, had several chances. We’ve always had problems with them, and Miami is going to be a toss up. 2 possible losses right there. whats wrong with 6-2 as a realistic prediction. No Homer.
Exactly. Miami's performance against them was very impressive.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Yes all of them likely except Austin
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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So basically,
2 gimme’s (Maryland & BC) and for now, 4 difficult ACC games. I’d love to win 3 or all 4, but a split is probably more likely.
enloe
I will be happy to put units on FSU losing two ACC games
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Oct 5, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd take Miami over
Arizona
TCU
LSU
I think Neb has the D to make Miami pay for playing Harris
"…You can't get enough Lonnie Pryors on your football team." -Eddie Gran
LSU
paper tiger remains in tact. AGAIN. Can’t punish them…yet.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
Until their
win record starts reflecting how bad their coaching is, you can’t punish them that bad using Bud’s criteria. Don’t worry, it will happen.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
maybe not by his criteria,
but having watched a lot of them this season, I’d probably take 20 teams before them, including us.
I thought you could punish for Poor Perfomance
And I don’t see how that game doesn’t qualify as a poor performance against a BAD Tennessee team.
They went down
3 spots. When I say PUNISH I mean the dregs of the poll or off of it.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
Allow UF to do the punishing
If they can get their friggin center snap debacl-ry cleaned up
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Oct 5, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Hoping McDaniel will make him hurry his snaps enough too ;)
Our defensive line play is ahead of my expectations…but some of that has been the improved secondary play …giving them more time.
but UF definitely has a problem at center.
"I am not now at all sure that the tendency to treat the whole thing as a kind of vast game is really good - certainly not for me who find that kind of thing only too fatally attractive." - J R R Tolkein
I am not an LSU fan, but
I think their defense is going to give UF hell. This is going to be a game of who can make the least mistakes. A comedy of errors if you will…
Nebraska has no bad performances and a great blowout of Washington on the road
I can see the TCU argument but no doubt TCU will continue to drop.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I see LSU dropped 3, but I still think they are too high.
They have won the games though, so I can see how they are arguably top 10.
They also have played 5 BCS teams
Beat UNC
Crushed Vandy
Beat MissSt Soundly
Squeaked by WVU
Squeaked by Tennessee
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Agreed, some respect has to be paid to teams who play, week in and week out, against teams that could beat them.
It’s real easy to get up for three games a season and look great as opposed to 5 or 6 a season and look average. UF is an excellent example. Don’t convince yourself that TN or KY is any good. USF had em on the ropes and when they finally play a top ten team…same record as FSU but with more respect for some reason.
But UF’s Bama loss is better than FSU’s OU loss
And Miami (OH), USF, Tenn, UK is way better than Samford, BYU, Wake, and Virginia.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I am saying..
When LSU plays a team week in and week out that has a legit shot to beat them they deserve more credit than teams that do not. Oh, and they win. UF will lose 2-3 games this season. Then again the last time they went 9-4 and lost to any school with any talent their Qb won the Heisman.
Their QB was the clear Heisman winner wasn't he?
I see UF losing 2-3 agreed
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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He was
But he only won because Dixon was injured. I really believe that Oregon would have won the title and he would have won the Heisman. McFadden only had three big games. Barely showed up in games. Pat White and Slaton were not as good as they were the year before. Chase Daniels lost to OU twice. Just a really weird, akward, strange, bizarre season. Hell, Les Miles won a national championship. Too bad for Dixon and Oregon that year.
Good point
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Which makes me wonder
When would Tebow have won his Heisman, if he didn’t win that year?? Sam Bradford was better the next year and Mark ingram was better last year. I obviously think he was great, but it might make you wonder about his career. Just a curious side thought……either Charlie Ward kills him as a much better player.
Guess he wouldn't
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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But they'll swear up and down
he is the greatest college player ever… This kid (18 or 19 yrs old) was spewing that ESPN rhetoric towards me the other day, I told him just to slow down. He says “well, who was better”. I say charlie ward. He laughs. 5 min later, after reciting the company lines (Heisman, 2 national champs, etc) he says to me… Who is charlie ward?
That is hilarious.
grounds for public beating?
Les Miles became the only coach to ever win a title with two losses
The whole year should have a huge astrisk by it.
Or as he said, “we were undefeated in regulation.”
Thing is, I think coaching becomes even more important in OT. Well, kinda like down the stretch with the clock running, LOL.
Hate to say it
But I agree. They are so lucky but wins are wins. For some reason I see LSU beating the Gators as well. Maybe because I hate the Gators, but there is just something wrong with the Gators. LSU has a defense to contain their mediocre offense. To me this game is basically two midgets fighting for is taller. Doesn’t matter you are both short.(me being 5’5" and all.)
I see UF shutting them out like 24-0
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Oct 5, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I see a similar type of game that we
just saw between LSU and Tennessee. i.e. a game in the teens.
"The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary." Vince Lombardi
"We'll win games with talent, we'll win championships with character." Jimbo Fisher
Don't see LSU scoring
17-3 would be my guess because LSU has a D. Maybe 21, Demps could help if he is back.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
I think Jenkins and Hill pick off 15 passes between the two of them
and it ends up 27-3. Gators will definitely rebound
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Oct 5, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Suppose that the refs stand over the ball while LSU is subbing
Just for the sake of argument, LSU loses that one,as they should have.
Do you still have them ranked 7? I think they’re brutal and Les Miles should go around looking for wallets. It’s embarrassing to me that there are literally people in the world posting on the internet that would manage a game better than he does and yet, somehow, he has one of the ten best college football jobs in the country. I know people who work for a living, for crying out loud.
IF your poll is process oriented, rather than result, I can’t see how they’re higher than Boise State, who does everything “right” aside from being from the state of Idaho.
Even LSU’s scheduling that you point out, looks tough but really, they got UNC at the perfect time, Tennessee at the perfect time, etc., etc.
I’m probably biased because Miles makes ache all over….but they’re horrid. I sure hope I’m wrong but I think they get beat by 30 Saturday night…..
I dropped them for not playing very well against Tennessee.
I might drop them a bit more for the loss to Tennessee, yes.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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You're banned from the internetz
for disrespecting Miles’ Genius.
If LSU loses that game of course they drop. Tennessee is bad.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
IDK, The LSU QB could have dropped or missed the snap OR the center could have quick snapped after both realized there were 20 UT players on the field
personally, I dont think thats a fumbled snap if UT lines up correctly
"…You can't get enough Lonnie Pryors on your football team." -Eddie Gran
center
said he snapped the ball without waiting on the QB because he knew time was going to run out…so yeah, it would have still been bad.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
at least somone realized it
we flipped over to watch the end of that game and i said jokingly “watch theyre guna screw up again and let time run out”
>>>─────;;─►
Seriously.
Almost did. If he never snapped the ball, which it looked like time might expire before he did, UT doesn’t get called for the penalty because they wouldn’t have run a play.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
My point
I think the rule is, when an offense runs people on the field like LSU does, it’s the white hat’s responsibility to stand over the ball, not let it be snapped until a reasonable amount of time for the defense to sub to match it.
It’s all part of the illegal substitution rules, along with not allowing more than 11 in the huddle, etc.
So, my point becomes, Tenn got shafted. Meaning LSU won like, say Colorado over Mizzou in 1990. If that’s the case, on this site (which I love because it’s this way) which is “process oriented rather than result oriented” shouldn’t LSU be in the same spot, either way, win or lose?
Or, does luck count? We all know that it does, except when an athlete makes too high of a score on the SAT/ACT, then the NCAA steps in and says “prove you’re that smart.”
If I’m banned from the Internetz for dissing Miles, well, that’s a club I don’t need to be in, LOL.
Say
Fortson clearly drops the ball in the endzone against Miami (which of course he did, sigh), and for whatever reason they don’t review it, and FSU wins! You count it? I sure as hell would.
Luck always counts.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
sorry
he clearly drops the ball, they call it a TD, and for whatever reason they don’t review it. You get the idea.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
The difference there, for me is
UM and FSU were evenly matched. LSU and Tennessee weren’t, I think.
I can see where if Fortson catches the ball OR if they call it a catch, the two teams really don’t move much in the rankings at all.
LSU was supposed to be much better than Tennessee, it was number 5 versus number 85, not 18 versus 20.
From the gator blog
“Les Miles is a clock management savant. If they’re within 3 scores, in the 4th qtr, the game is in serious jeopardy. He’ll find a away to get 19 Gators in the field at once, and score 4 TDs in the process, with negative time on the clock”
You guys can dump on LSU ...but they play at night still out there.
Something we should go back to. Different atmosphere…cooler. All those crazy cajuns in the stands. Night games would avoid more T-storms likely too.
"I am not now at all sure that the tendency to treat the whole thing as a kind of vast game is really good - certainly not for me who find that kind of thing only too fatally attractive." - J R R Tolkein
This is not an arbitrary decision...We take what we can get for TV time...
If we want to play at night we need to both be title contenders and have a more interesting conference.
Miami this week is our first night game.
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
Because their "thriller" vs UT was at night, right?
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
Dunkel power index has FSU up to 14th
http://www.dunkelindex.com/NCAA_Football_Div1A_Rankings.asp
LSU still too high, FSU would beat them. Dunkel has FSU 14 and Miami 11th, pretty close together. That is how most experts pick the game also.
We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable!
Doc do you understand how the poll works?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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It pains me to see LSU #7 with all their recent troubles, but I cant say I disagree with your support above
thats a very big jump for Iowa, even if they won by 3TDs. Im just not impressed by PSU at all.
Im not sure I agree that Iowa has outplayed Stanford thus far. Im really liking Stanford and Oregon this year. Maybe Im just a sucker for offense… good work bud always appreciated
noles, marlins, phins
It's very close in there
Iowa improved as it did to PSU what Bama did to PSU, Arizona loss looks better, and other teams had bad weekends.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I agree with you Northern Haze.
At first glance I cringed when I saw them, but solid reasoning from Bud.
Boise St should be unranked
haven’t proven anything yet
dropped 3 spots
for beating up a bad team. Will probably keep dropping a little each week.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
I know we all hate Boise, but...
plenty of teams seem to have something still to prove.
TCU and Boise— TCU is #8, Boise is #18…. Both beat Oregon State at home. Boise beat Va Tech (kind of) on the road. So, if it’s about current resume— TCU gets 10 spots higher here for the road win at SMU and the home win over Baylor? compared to Va Tech away?
If we’re basing it on games already played, I don’t know if I see that, with perhaps the exception that Baylor may be a lot better than I think
We know Boise isn’t going to play any legitimate games until the bowl, so they can steadily fall from here
I am still on the Michigan St train from last week Bud.
I still respect them and the win against Wisconsin just further intensified that. I’d argue Sparty’s wins are better then Boise’s.
I could see
Sparty deserving of a spot up or two even.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
I agree
Though I never ranked wisky
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I called for the Sparty upset
On a side note, apparently Badger fans want to bench John Clay. Dude has one decent game and now he is horrible? And their freshman destroys Austin Peay and he is the best thing ever??? Talk about delusional.
Utah seems a bit high up
for winning a close home game against a Pitt team that Miami demolished.
Perhaps I’d put Michigan above them. UConn at home and ND away, seems just slightly better than Pitt at home.
Though I can see the argument that the close win against UMass takes you down a notch.
Hey Bud just out of curiosity
Who do you have some of the ACC teams losing to? Just trying to figure who you have losing within the conference.
5.93 FSU
4.70 CLEM
4.10 NCST
4.18 BC
3.00 MD
1.83 WAKE
6.30 MIA
6.28 VT
4.90 GT
3.48 UNC
2.10 UVA
1.33 DUKE
Don’t do specific wins-losses. It’s not very accurate.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Think I would put clemson
just over 5.00. Matchup’s against some bad ACC teams help boost it.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
If I'm not mistaken
those have changed fairly recently haven’t they? Looks like we win the division in a walk
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Clemson losing to Miami cost them half a win
If we lost to the Canes take off .4 from us and it’s no longer a walk
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Ah there we go.
Beauty of it, though, is that if we beat Miami, we’re looking at 6.5 ish…
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
If we beat UM, I think we win the division going away
Assuming health stays OK, WRs don’t brawl in the cafeteria with Delta House, etc.
I think the confidence shot it will give us is a tremendous intangible.
How much is an intangible worth? 5% chance of winning improved?
"Don't bite your friends" - DJ Lancerock
totall agree
3-0 in ACC and book that ish for Charlotte. 2-1 and we’re still on target but have pleny of divisional heavy lifting to do.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Oct 5, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
GT over UNC?
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
I guess the odds would say yes but wouldn't expect the margin that big.
Can’t believe UNC lost to GT.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
If Boise is based on resume so far...
Boise’s strength of schedule remains in Sagarin’s top 40 at No. 38. That’s higher than fellow unbeatens Oregon (57), Auburn (72), TCU (78), Ohio State (99), Nebraska (134) and Utah (137).
It will take a nosedive.
We are still in the first half of the season and Boise has played their OOC games against Va Tech and Oregon State. The others have feasted on winless conference foes in Boise’s conference that Boise will have to play down the stretch while those teams enter the grind of their conference schedules. Boise’s SOS will drop quickly while some of those others (Auburn, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oregon, etc.) will rise.
I agree, but..
Bud himself stated the following:
“This is not a power poll. I don’t attempt to rank teams based on how good I think they are. I only rank teams based on their resume. What have they done? "
Which means where their SOS is currently has to be considered.
Does Sagarin factor in who they already played AND who they have yet to play?
Because I don’t see much on Boise’s schedule yet
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Only who they have played, does not consider who they will play...
For the first three weeks he uses a bayesian network until the teams are well connected and then the results are unbiased.
He uses two systems: One system, “Elo chess,” is presumably based on the Elo rating system used internationally to rank chess players. This system uses only wins and losses, with no reference to the victory margin. The other system, “Predictor,” takes victory margin into account. For that system, the difference in two teams’ rating scores is meant to predict the margin of victory for the stronger team at a neutral venue. For both systems, teams gain higher ratings within the Sagarin system by winning games against stronger opponents, factoring in such things as home-venue advantage. For the Predictor system, margin of victory (or defeat) factors in also, but a law of diminishing returns is applied.
Pure Points (the one that considers MOV) is the best.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Sagarin's is junk.
Dokter Entropy is considerably better.
http://www.timetravelsports.com/currat.txt
Boise State’s schedule, according to the good Dokter, is easier than ours at this point in the season.
Thats because Sagarin's just takes into account who you've played up till now I think.
Saragin’s is fine at the end of the season IMO.
El Paso! Awesome!
That’s all of four hours closer to my house than Blacksburg.
A bullhorn, a bottle of whiskey and a dream. Gobbler Country | Twitter | Facebook
OSU
If I had done the rankings Ohio State would be lower… Their SOS is way down there, they played Miami and a bunch of blah games against weak opposition.
"tell me where I am wrong."
Iowa moves up 11 spots after beating unranked Penn St.
FSU Football: United We Stand
I asked this above. I think stanford is better but not by much. Bud said its close.
Iowa only loss is by 7 to arizona, who look good
the teams they jumped have had bad games
Iowa beat Penn st in a very similar way to alabama
PSU has played two good defenses in 5 games, maybe not as bad as I want to say they are. they did almost lose to the Temple fightin’ BPs though.
I always get off topic when bernard pierce is remotely related to a discussion
noles, marlins, phins
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