'Nole Your Opponents: Week 12
At 7-3 (5-2 ACC), Florida State has only two remaining regular season games. That means only two remaining "Nole Your Opponents" pieces in the regular season. Over the weekend Maryland beat Virginia by three touchdowns on the road and Florida lost to South Carolina at home by three touchdowns. Which game had a final score more indicative of the game play? What can you learn about the Seminoles' last two opponents? Inside, I break it down.
AC has gathered all the bowl projections of the experts: Florida State bowl picture: Projection time – Chopping Block – Seminoles Blog – Orlando Sentinel
-Stewart Mandell, Sports Illustrated: Chick-fil-A Bowl
-Mark Schlabach, ESPN.com: Champs Sports Bowl
-Andrea Adelson, ESPN.com: Chick-fil-A Bowl
-CBSSports.com: Chick-fil-A Bowl
-CollegeFootballNews.com: Chick-fil-A Bowl
-Bud Elliott, SBNation.com: Chick-fil-A Bowl
Please remember that all drive charts remove trash time.
I covered FSU's game yesterday, but the drive chart does show that FSU out-gained Clemson by 16% per play. Look at the awful field position average thanks in large part to Greg Reid's fumble.
Something I didn't add in the game story, however, is a comparison of FSU's performance against all other teams Clemson faced this season.
| Clemson Performance To Date v. BCS-Conference Teams | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson Defense | Clemson Offense | ||||||
| Opponent | Plays | Allowed | Per Play | Opponent | Plays | Gaines | Per Play |
| @ 2 Auburn | 61 | 424 | 7.0 | Georgia Tech | 65 | 403 | 6.2 |
| @ Florida St. | 54 | 308 | 5.7 | @ 2 Auburn | 81 | 407 | 5.0 |
| Maryland | 68 | 350 | 5.1 | @ Florida St. | 79 | 391 | 4.9 |
| 24 Miami (Fla.) | 76 | 376 | 4.9 | @ North Carolina | 66 | 305 | 4.6 |
| @ Boston College | 62 | 304 | 4.9 | 24 Miami (Fla.) | 73 | 311 | 4.3 |
| Georgia Tech | 68 | 325 | 4.8 | @ Boston College | 62 | 262 | 4.2 |
| North Carolina St. | 65 | 275 | 4.2 | North Carolina St. | 71 | 260 | 3.7 |
| @ North Carolina | 66 | 255 | 3.9 | Maryland | 65 | 213 | 3.3 |
Conclusions:
- Florida State had the second best day of any offense against Clemson all season on a yards-per-play basis. Think about that! That is how good Clemson's defense is.
- Clemson's offense had its third-best game of the season against FSU's defense.
This off-season Clemson is expected to lose DE 93 Da'QUAN BOWERS 6-4 275 Jr., DT 99 JARVIS JENKINS 6-4 315 Sr., CB 12 MARCUS GILCHRIST 5-11 190 Sr., and SS 2 DeANDRE McDANIEL 6-1 215 Sr. off the defense. That defense will again be very good, but it likely will not be one of the very best in the whole country. Perhaps Clemson's offense will put it together as it returns 4 of 5 offensive linemen and all key skill guys, except QB Kyle Parker.
That will be a tough game next year if Clemson gets its act together offensively (probably only behind @ UF and hosting Oklahoma).
Maryland looks a little more legit each week. Out-gaining a conference foe by 20% on the road is nothing to scoff at. Still, I do not buy Maryland as a good team, merely an average outfit.
Ben Broman with game story: http://www.testudotimes.com/2010/11/13/1812430/maryland-grabs-big-win-in-charlottesville-over-virginia-42-23
Ben Broman with the game grades: http://www.testudotimes.com/2010/11/14/1812659/maryland-42-virginia-23-report-card-and-helmet-stickers
UF was soundly beaten by LSU, crushed by Bama, but should have beaten Mississippi State. Loss number four belongs in the former group as South Carolina racked up 30% more yards per play (and amazingly ran 60% more plays as well!)
B.O.O.F. has the recap http://boysofoldflorida.blogspot.com/2010/11/failed-year.html and says that the defense is much better than its rating (I agree, that's a very good defense), but the offense keeps putting it in awful positions (like Jeff Bowden did to FSU's 2005 defense). 5.14 yards-per-play allowed to South Carolina is a quality defensive effort. But not even gaining 4 per game is not.
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Yes. Or it should be "2nd best conference game" of the season
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
Can't help but think that Maryland (pronounced Merlin) is smoke and mirrors, too
In only conference games, their offense is averaging 5.0 YPP (8th).
However, they are holding conference opponents to 4.6 YPP (2nd). Their low-water mark was against Miami (6.4 YPP) – high-water mark was WF (2.8 YPP).
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
by ricobert1 on Nov 15, 2010 11:35 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
But they have yet to play the two best offenses in their division (FSU & NC State)
And they got Miami with the rookie QB in his first ever start.
They have not played Va Tech or UNC.
Looks as if they have successfully played 6 of the 7 worst offenses in conference.
Duke
at Clem
at BC
WF
at UM
at UVA
More fuel for the fraud fire.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Nov 15, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Rec for
More fuel for the fraud fire.
Alliteration Folks!
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Nov 15, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
"But they have yet to play the two best offenses in their division"
This speaks volumes about the quality of football in the ACC Atlantic. I just can’t accept the ’10 Seminoles as anything other than an above average offense. Yet there we sit at the top of the division.
FSU has played some really quality defenses
This is a good offense nationally. It’s not great, but it is easily one of the 20 best.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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20 best?????
Then how come when you look at NCAA stats over the last 4 years under Fisher, FSU averages #50 out of 120 teams in total offense. I wish we were top 20 then we would be 9-1 not 7-3.
look at the average D fsu faced in the last 5 years
there is your answer
"…You can't get enough Lonnie Pryors on your football team." -Eddie Gran
Because those are total offense and do not account for opponent quality?
Seriously. Stop using stuff like total offense. It tells you NOTHING.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Not to mention...
taking an average of Fisher’s four years here is not really fair to him. Look at what he had to work with in 2007. Drew Weatherford and Xavier Lee with a depleted OL and no run game? I guarantee that our Total O ranks much higher than #50 from 2008-2010 without accounting for opponent quality (which you should do anyway).
I'll rec just for the proper reference to that terrible southern Maryland accent
I think Maryland is pretty fraudulent as well, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little worried about our d-line crapping the bed considering how worn down they are.
by SeminoleSkins87 on Nov 15, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
And there's the worry
that our safeties get too involved in helping out against the run and we get exposed deep. It looks like O’Brien will throw the deep ball (WF, UVA) if given it.
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
Just to be a doubting Thomas...
how much are we smoke and mirrors? I agree we’re better than MD, but…?
CU's offense is a lot like FSU.
The WR group is poor while FSU’s is improving. The RB is good but not great while FSU has 3 backs around the same talent level. The OL can dominate but is playing average and FSU has injuries that keep them in line with CU.
All in all the offense of both teams were not going to be the story. CU’s defense is legit top 20 and their DL is top 3 or 4. If you asked me how FSU would do if their defense was on the field 20 min in the first half thanks to the offense and penalties I would have said CU wins by 14. The defense did step up and play as well as they could have even against Clemson. I would like to get win number 8 against Maryland.
I still think we lose to UF. I hate, hate, hate the gaytors but I see a number of factors working against us. If you look at the season OU, NC State, and UNC all had enough talent to beat us. The dominate factor was their sense of FSU being their season changing game. I didn’t get that feel from CU fans or posts while these other teams and coaches are on record saying they practiced all summer for FSU (OU) or that this is their game of the year (NC STATE). I see UF coming into this as their statement game. Unless FSU rises to the occasion, which they can do easily, I see UF getting another win. Come on Noles!
Already starting to see comments in blogs ...
where UF is saying that the FSU game is their bowl game … nothing more to play for other than that after the S. Carolina game.
It doesn't matter what they think
Like Fisher says emotion will only get you so far, you still have to execute. Right now they can’t execute. I thin Appy State has a shot.
We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable! "Get used to it, get used to winning"....Jimbo Fisher
Here is my take on UF

We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable! "Get used to it, get used to winning"....Jimbo Fisher
Why do people continue to doubt schools like Appalachian State after the past handful of years?
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
i think app state keeps their starters off the field. they have the tourney coming up. nto sure they’d risk their starters just to win a game that the they media has them losing. nothing to gain, but a lot to lose. but yeah, no one should doubt them.
I understand that, but to call them a bye for UF?
If UF is struggling and ASU is in the game, why not leave the starters in and go for the win? If they’re getting clobbered, sure. But what are the odds of that?
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
I disagree
They will rest their starters if the game gets out of hand, but as I posted on another thread, I think a victory in gville would do more for their program than yet another FCS title.
Their athletics website starts off basically equating the Michigan win with THREE CONSECUTIVE FCS championships:
While the Appalachian State University football team garnered three NCAA Div I FCS national championships between 2005 and 2007 – and upset the University of Michigan in 2007 – Mountaineer athletics has more to brag about than just its gridiron success.
Few people will notice in the news if they win another FCS title. If they beat uf in the swamp? Good lord, the whole nation hears about it, repeatedly. The Michigan win will be brought up, highlights of both games played multiple times – now, and every other time they play a D1 program on TV in the future.
If I was App St, I’d go all out for tagging uf. The exposure would be phenomenal, even if uf is in a down year.
Motivation will not be a factor
You think our guys won’t be motivated after six years of frustration? Both sides will be riled up. If anything, when I hear teams say that “we’ll keep playing hard for our seniors”, I can’t help but think that means they’re giving up. If you need to look around for reasons to keep playing to your potential, things ain’t lookin too good for you. See us the last 4 years.
We are everybody's statement game!
Think about it. Wake, Miami, BC, NCSU, UNC, Clemson, Maryland, now UF. I realize NCSU vs, UNC and Clemson vs. USC are statment games also. All the ACC teams want to beat us. It’s hard for us to understand why beating a mediocre FSU team warrants tearing down the goalposts, but folks remember the old FSU running roughshod over the rest of the league for years.
Florida State 45 Miami 17
by SeminoleMike on Nov 15, 2010 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Rec
You are dead on. I remember the NCSU game where the announcers were going on about how big the game was for the Wolfpack. Same for Miami. I would also add what I thought at the beginning of the year. ACC teams would put a bullseye on us this year because they knew our recruiting was taking off and their chances would get slimmer in the coming years. They saw Coach Fisher’s offenses and have figured out he knows what he is doing.
The Gates are definitely not going to want to end the year with a loss to FSU. This game is going to be vicious. Fortunately, they don’t need to beat us just to become bowl eligible.
Sheriff Branford: The fact that you are a sheriff is not germane to the situation.
Buford T. Justice: The god damn Germans got nothin' to do with it!
I want to be the biggest game of the year for every team we play.
I want to be the school they have a grudge against because they wanted to play for us but we didn’t offer.
I want to be the school that beat them by 30 last year.
I want to be the school that wins the division every year.
I want to be the school that gets all the national press they feel they deserve.
I want to be the school that they circle on their calendar because they know they’ll never get any respect until they show they are as good as us.
We were that school once. That is exactly what I want.
by SDnole on Nov 15, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
I remember the first year FSU was really bad
it seem every time an ACC team beat the Noles on their home field, the students would rush the field. Kind of silly when the home team beat a very mediocre barely .500 team, but I guess its to be expected after what FSU did to the ACC in the 90’s.
Gripper
Tommyhawk Nation: Bobby Bowden vs UNC 15-1-1...Jimbo 0-1
Rec'ing that wouldn't do it justice.
That is exactly what this program must strive for. That is the only thing that will likely satiate this fan base’s hunger.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
OT: I'm worried that our young front 4 is more susceptible
to major injury now that it is obvious we are fading down the stretch. Stoops subs a LOT less than Mickey used to. So in a way, even the returning players are not used to the workload.
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
I agree but..
If the offense can sustain drives (like bud said, I am calling fraud on Maryland) the defense will def get less plays and maybe save if up a little for the big game…beating down nasty gayturds!
We simply must get the ground game going against Maryland
That is, until they stack the box and then we dink and dunk them on comebacks and screens to death. The I-form option to the weakside is a nice wrinkle, especially if we can get their CB blocked. Lonnie Pryor may need to be renamed The Eradicator – on those weakside options he destroyed the weakside backer / safety. What an asset he is.
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
Had some awesome blocks
on Saturday.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Nov 15, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
The 1st Annual Lonnie Pryor Award
Given to the football player with the most recorded blocks resulting in defender acrobatics (e.g., somersaults, flips, cartwheels, and face-plants).
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
Lonnie is Riduculous!!!
The best back we ahve doesn’t really run the ball. Think about that for a second. That Pryor is one consistent MOFO. He almost never misses a block. I want to say give him more carriers, but he is tool valuable with key blocks and coming out of the back field in the short to intermediate passing game. He is also such a weapeon in the read zone both catching and teh hand off to the full back. I wish we had 4 Lonnie Pryor’s. I can;t say enough good things about that kid. IMO, he’s the best player on offense.
by FEARTHESPEAR! on Nov 15, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Much better than his NC State game
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Nov 15, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
didn’t stand out on NC State game, which means wasn’t doing that much.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Nov 15, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
On Lonnie, where does an undersized blocking fullback get drafted...
who only gets a handful of carries a game? I know he’s young and his role will evolve, but if he was to stay in this state and get a couple more carries a game, maybe a few passes… where does he project in a typical draft? I mean, we know his importance and his skill, but a full grown TB in a FB’s role getting a few carries and <30 yds/game is not going to draw many scouts.
Probably later rounds but he can be a valuable piece.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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You don't think he is the feature back at FSU ever?
Or at least splitting carries like Jones, Thomas and Thompson were this year?
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
unfortunately, no
it doesnt look like we are even attempting to recruit a blocking FB, so i dont know who would fill that void to block for Lonnie. it bothers me that such a great kid and true Nole fan hasnt, and probably wont, have the chance to show his full potential as a running back, especially since he is clearly talented enough
We do not want to use a fullback as much as we want to use 2 TE
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Absolutely not
He is not a good runner. He is good at catching and blocking and occasionally getting surprise carries. If he was a good runner I guarantee you he would get 20 per game but he is not an FSU quality runner.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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I'm just hesitant to agree that he can't run.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
yeah, im gonna call BS on that one too
no way a guy is a 4 star recruit if he cant run. i have seen him run a few times with EJ last year out of the RB spot, and hes pretty good. he shook a guy in the open field (i believe during the miami game) on a long run too. watch his HS film too, the talent is there. its just a matter of getting the best players on the field, and in his case, nobody could also block as well as he can (not like the 45 year old Matt Dunham can do it)
what it comes down to is having a FB who can block sometimes. yes, we want to have a TE/H-Back setup, but we clearly use the FB at times as well. i dont buy that we dont want to have a reliable blocking FB for the I-formation. and until we have somebody else who can fill that spot, he will get the same chances he got before, i.e. in the shotgun alone or paired with another RB.
and yes, i am an unabashed Lonnie Pryor fan, but them’s the facts.
He does not have what it takes to be a tailback in our system IMO
And he is not good enough to change the system for.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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HOW DARE YOU DISAGREE WITH BUD???
/bad joke referring to earlier sheep conversation in what is probably a different thread.
Bring back Peter Tom Willis— a true Nole! -FiestaNole
I don't want him around all those Gates
Bad influences.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Saints, Patriots, Colts
alway can use him because of his catching ablity
by Quentin C on Nov 15, 2010 11:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm partial to Lonne "the forearm shiver" Pryor myself
"Kill a fly with an axe"
by SteadfastNole on Nov 15, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
Does he sub less because we don't have many good backups or because he doesn't like to do it regardless?
When your two deep is over 50% (at least it seems to be) freshmen and sophomores…
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
I like how FSU matches up with Maryland
Maryland has a bad O, so I think a conservative gameplay by Stoops that takes away the deep ball and forces Maryland to earn their yards will work. And although Maryland’s D is pretty good, Jimbo’s balanced O should be able to find the weakness and exploit it.
Note: I don’t like the night game in Maryland though… we need to minimize turnovers (I’m looking @ u G5 & Ponder), esp. in the second half to prevent Maryland from getting any mo.
Accountabilty is back in Tallahassee....
Re: I like how FSU matches up with Maryland
Miami gave our passing game the hardest time and they played a lot of man to man coverage and bumped a lot at the line. It sounds like FSU takes the opposite approach, give up the short passing game but take away the deep ball. On the other hand UVA tried to same tactics that Miami did and gave up almost 300 yards passing and had at least 4 15 yard pass interference penalties, so you have to the personnel to do that. Maryland’s run game was awful against Clemson and BC, but both have good front sevens. Against average front sevens, its pretty average itself.
Our D is better against the run then pass. The short pass in particularly has given us problems, though Miami exploited us deep too, which was frustrating for the coaches because a couple times we had double coverage. That said Miami has really good WR’s.
So are we pretty sure Ponder comes back next week
I’d almost want to see EJ get one more week and give Ponder’s elbow another week to heal for the UF game.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Agree 100%
But people keep jumping me every time I say it. I guess it’s sacrilege around here, but EJ did have me falling out of my chair in epic fashion when he cut the run inside instead of following his blockers.
I know that process is the focus, but I would really LOVE to see some results against UM and UF.
UMD is a must-win whereas UF is not
A statement which, in itself, will draw some criticism. But I guarantee that’s how Jimbo is looking at it.
>>---l>
Not to be the anti to the anti...
But I promise you Jimbo is selling out to beat UF this year. (Not saying he will of course – I’m not counting on another win with the skeleton crew we’re down to.)
I won't argue that he doesn't see a big opportunity there
But do you think he values it over the Atlantic? I can’t see it. It goes against the vast majority of his rhetoric.
>>---l>
At this point in time, I don't think the rhetoric matches the reality...
…or, more importantly, the public perception of where UF is at right now. Which would you take? You don’t have to answer, but c’mon now, does this team really need to make it to the ACC title game in Jimbo’s first year, only to be throttled by Va. Tech on a national stage, or can it afford to just barely miss out on some “bad luck” and take back the state from UF and Miami before they even knew what hit them. There’s your statement. “Now it’s time to win some championships, men!” This discussion’s all for fun of course, but I do believe Jimbo would take UF right now. The good UF team that we all thought we were getting this year? No, of course not. We deflect and we build toward reasonable goals. The UF team that people think we can beat all of a sudden? I don’t think Jimbo has a choice really.
It's an interesting debate for sure
I’m not convinced we’d get throttled by VT. I certainly don’t think we’d be favored, but I’d put it at 55%. It’s certainly a lot more of a choice than it was at the beginning of the season.
>>---l>
FSU owns the gobbler curse
13 wins out of the last 14 vs Virginia Tech. I would like our chances. I will take a win over UF vs the ACC any day due to recruiting advantage alone.
Not to mention self respect.
We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable! "Get used to it, get used to winning"....Jimbo Fisher
and UNC
had never won in Doak…
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Nov 15, 2010 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
We are doing fine in recruiting having lost 6 in a row
Win the division
Gripper Nation - Against Miami: Bobby Bowden .400 Winning %: All other FSU coaches combined .500 Winning %
Should clarify I'm projecting a completely broken-down team by the time we'd get to VT.
Honestly debating if we should even tackle against Maryland. Kidding.
Gotta run, have a good week – Go Noles!
Does FSU have that many injuries?
Ponder, Sanders , Thomas…who on defense?
Gripper
Tommyhawk Nation: Bobby Bowden vs UNC 15-1-1...Jimbo 0-1
Christian Ponder (elbow)
Jermaine Thomas (knee)
Jarmon Fortson (kicked off team), Willie Haulstead (Concussion), A.J. Alexander (left team)
David Spurlock (concussion), Blake Snider (lower leg), Bryan Stork (mono)
Jamar Jackson (left team)
Moses McCray (ACL done for year)
Nigel Carr (kicked off team), JaJuan Harley (left team)
That’s just guys who missed all or part of last week
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Definitely, RG is the unlucky position this year.
I can see that the offense is limping into the finish, but defense.
Except for McCray (which is huge), the defensive players listed had very little if any contributions up till now. I don’t consider the defense to be “broken down” at all….tired maybe, but not “broken down”.
But, I would think FSU would be a underdog to VT…but all the pressure would be on the Hokies and for some reason, they don’t play well vs the Noles.
Gripper
Tommyhawk Nation: Bobby Bowden vs UNC 15-1-1...Jimbo 0-1
McDaniel is fighting through the elbow
Dawkins has the thumb with a screw in it.
Markus is battling the knee.
McCloud wasn’t expected to play 400 snaps this year but he will.
We have some guys really toughing it out who could sit in other programs with depth.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Now it make sense.
Obviously I’ve missed some of the injury updates.
Thanks,
Gripper
Tommyhawk Nation: Bobby Bowden vs UNC 15-1-1...Jimbo 0-1
And XR27 been playing with the hip flexor for a long time too...Moody's been banged up too...
FEAR THE SPEAR!!!!!!!!!
"Winning when playing poorly is the kiss of the death." - Nick Saban
Whats the deal with Demonte?
Gripper Nation - Against Miami: Bobby Bowden .400 Winning %: All other FSU coaches combined .500 Winning %
I agree with this.
VT has a mediocre O and a good D. They havent really killed anyone. They have just found ways to win. We always seem to play really close with VT…
Mediocre O?
They are really good on O this year
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Na
Tech’s offense pulled itself together after the James Madison game and they are on fire now. They’ve got a really good offense.
That would be a game I would LOVE to see,
never considered it, but wow, that would be fun to watch I think
Unfortunately that is true...that being said, a 7th straight loss to those bastards would really, really suck
Gripper
Tommyhawk Nation: Bobby Bowden vs UNC 15-1-1...Jimbo 0-1
Defending Maryland
Maryland is third in the country in turnovers. They don’t lose them and they are decent at creating them. Our QB has a 16 to 4 TD to Interception ratio and we haven’t lost a lot of fumbles. I think that is something worth factoring in.
Second Stephen Morris played pretty good against Maryland. He made a lot of tough passes and hit his WR in stride better than any QB UMD has seen this year. He didn’t read coverage well and threw two interceptions in the middle of the field, but overall Morris is not an easy QB to play against even if it was his first career start. He had lead Miami to 19 fourth quarter points the week before for what its worth.
I would want a noon game
just so the fans could all suffer :D
I know that process is the focus, but I would really LOVE to see some results against UM and UF.
Meant to reply below
I’m tired :P
I know that process is the focus, but I would really LOVE to see some results against UM and UF.
lol
apparently maryland is doing a “blackout”…should make the ball easy to see.
2 years ago.
The Myron Rolle game.
4 years ago was the “Xavier Lee in a 60mph wind” game.
6 years ago was the “Jeff Bowden has Wyatt Sexton throw the go route 40 times” game.
MD in 06
I was up in DC for that one, the wind was totally insane. Still, the weed needs to make that kick.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Nov 15, 2010 12:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I know the games
And I’m pretty sure they blacked us out for the 06 game.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
by AMFKNole on Nov 15, 2010 5:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm thinking they did both '06 and '08
So three consecutive games against us at home they’ve blacked out? Weird.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Oh man, could you picture FSU showing up to the black-out in black uniforms?
I don’t know who would be sweating more, John Swofford, fuming at his secretary for not calculating the fines quickly enough, or Gene Williams, desperately trying to concoct a headline that included the word “black” no fewer than three times.
by TRMNole on Nov 15, 2010 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
and here it is, with one thrown in for good measure
“Noles “back in black”, vs. MD’s black on black"
or possibly “Blacks on, blacks off”
or simply “Turnover record set as both teams’ black uniforms blend into night sky, each other”
Look at some of those defenses Clemson has played
It’s shocking that their two worst performances were against Maryland and NC State, but to see Miami up there, UNC and BC, I don’t mind having a worse performance than those three. That said, would have been nicer to be closer to the 4.5 range.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Maryland as a fraud
I think I am going to refrain from jumping on this bandwagon until after the game. And only then, depending on the results of said game.
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
Watched them live Saturday and wasn't overly impressed with their defense
But I’m taking the wait-and-see approach as well.
>>---l>
I'll go along with that
After all, we were going to beat NCSt and UNC, too… I think we DO beat MD, but I’m not counting victories until they’re won.
Yea
we beat ourselves against NCSU and UNC….if we refrain from that…we beat Maryland with little to no problem IMO.
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by Kelvin Hunt on Nov 15, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Bud said they beat VA by 3 touchdowns
I was driving during that game, but wasn’t it more close than that? I thought VA was leading in the fourth quarter. I’m not saying I’m not worried about Maryland, but VA is a pretty bad team.
Is this the statue of the turtle, ahem?
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Nov 15, 2010 12:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
The "surprised" turtle.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
I was ready to post it today, but I must pace myself.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
Based on how we project expectations here, you have to have us in the ACCCG, right?
Unless you give NCST better than a 75% chance in each of their last two, there win total will round down to 5. No matter what you think of Maryland, we have a better than 50% chance of winning, so our total should be 6. I have it like this:
NCST 65% over UNC
NCST 70% over MD
Total = 1.35 wins.
FSU 70% over MD
Total = .7 wins.
I know these projections aren’t as accurate with such a small remaining sample, but I’m just saying I’d rather be in our shoes than there’s.
That % for NCST over UNC is high.
I would say 55%. MAYBE 60%. I think that they match up pretty evenly.
More to my point, right?
They should probably finish 1-1 and we should probably finish 1-0.
UNC is the favorite
Try 45%
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I have it as
47% FSU wins division
40% NC State wins division
13% MD wins division
FSU is a 6-point fave over MD
NC State is a 3-point dog to UNC
NC State will be a 3-point fave at MD
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I like yours more than mine
Running all the outcomes and odds by my numbers above I get
53% NCST
38% FSU
9% MD
Now I am much more pessimistic. Foiled by my own math…
Plus is definitely in our benefit that we only have 1 more ACC game while NC State has two more.
Grace I call Your name, Oh won’t Your smile fall over me, I’m cracked and dry on hands and knees, Oh sweet grace rain down on me I need You grace
-Phil Wickham
which you probably factored into your %s. But I saw people trying to just add up the %s from each game to get to a % to win the division when comparing FSU vs UM. Doesn't work when comparing that to a team with only 1 more game to play vs 2.
Haven’t figured out how the adjustment could be made to be able to compare the two.
Grace I call Your name, Oh won’t Your smile fall over me, I’m cracked and dry on hands and knees, Oh sweet grace rain down on me I need You grace
-Phil Wickham
8 possible combinations
Adding up the %s is not correct, as you noted.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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My initial thoughts
We need to beat Maryland (insightful I know); and not only do we need to beat Maryland, I want to beat them comfortably (14-17 points). That sentence alone might not be a big deal, BUT, I also want to do that while sandbagging.
I really, really, REALLY, want to beat the turds. I know our goals have been the ACC, but Im being greedy here. I really worry they are gonna blow the doors off us again, since they are getting to face a defense that has hit the proverbial wall.
To sum up, I hate the gators, and I am tired of the 6 straight losses. My last damn home game as an undergrad I had to watch that moron Zook get carried off the field. Payback time, especially since I think we have a better shot this year than next.
Bring back Peter Tom Willis— a true Nole! -FiestaNole
We need to see Secord in this game (if EJ starts), or EJ (If Ponder starts).
Any word on if Spurlock is going to be available for the rest of the season?
No Secord.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
Why do we need to see Secord?
Gripper Nation - Against Miami: Bobby Bowden .400 Winning %: All other FSU coaches combined .500 Winning %
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Gripper Nation - Against Miami: Bobby Bowden .400 Winning %: All other FSU coaches combined .500 Winning %
he's a RS this year IIRC
so i would be pissed if i saw him play this year. maybe im old school, but i would prefer to have my starting QB come in every other year, and RS, so that the next starter comes in as a RS JR every time. if that is not possible (no guy that year or none you can get), bring in a guy the third year and have a quality senior take up that year gap to bring the new guy on. ive just never been comfortable relying on a FR or SO QB, especially if your OC is worth anything. its tough to learn a complicated offense as it is, much less learn it while trying not to get sacked or throw picks.
ya i was just saying in general, didnt think about the RS
but im with ya, its nice to have an experienced QB and an upperclassman waiting in the wings
>>>─────;;─►
That was my last uf-FSU game...
That was when I lost it for Bobby, I know we still had some good times after that, but it was a downward spiral from there
my friggan heart
needs a 14-20 point win against Mary. Seriously.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Nov 15, 2010 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think Jimbo sandbags the hell out of Maryland and does some work for UF this week
I know his whole thing on process, but he understands that the key to success is to establish ourselves as the top school in the state. This is why we did our best to dismantle Miami earlier, to secure 2nd place so we could begin working on passing UF. I believe that the whole “just focus on the ACC” approach is easily the best in this scenario and it is better for us to win our division and be a 10 win team each year so we can gain recognition and gain on UF.
However I truly believe we are in a strong position to pass them, and I think Jimbo is thinking it too, or at least I hope so. I know UF has more talent throughout at this point, but their coaching has obviously failed in a way that no one could have foreseen. Who would have thought UF could be embarrassed like they have been, and we have out recruited them this year, mainly due to Urban’s illness, but now we have the momentum, and could seal it going into next year with a win over UF.
I think the retaining of Addazio dooms UF next season, and I feel we will beat them next year with our projected improvement, and I think they will miss their seniors. Beating them two years in a row would put us on top, and then I think Jimbo will keep us there. What do we lose if we lose to Maryland and UF? Basically nothing, IMO. I don’t think our recruits are sold on our success for this year, but potential for the future, and a win here grabs the future’s attention even more, and BOOM. We rock.
I haven’t slept all night, doing homework, so forgive me if this is nuts, but I say swing for the homerun here because the potential loss is fairly minimal, imo. and the gain is outrageous. Just my 2 cents.
Maryland isn't
phenomenal. But FSU is not good enough to treat Maryland like a scrimmage. Maybe if after the first half FSU has shown it can dominate the line of scrimmage, they can work on stuff. We’ll be able to tell relatively quickly if Mary is decent or a huge fraud. Even if they are a fraud they got some quality guys on defense that can cause problems. We’ll see.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Nov 16, 2010 8:39 AM EST up reply actions
I seriously hope we sell out for UF
Rest Ponder unless completely healthy, let him watch UF film all week. Rest anyone you need to. Give it three days work on Maryland, two for UF or something like that and make it happen. I don’t care if we lose to Maryland if we can compete with UF.
Sorry, reply fail..
At the bottom of the page, the reply difficulty increases exponentially. Its like going from All- American to Heisman on NCAA
You have to be careful.
I don’t want to lose to Maryland to compete with UF. I would take a loss to Maryland to BEAT UF. There’s a difference. If you sell out for UF, IMO you have to beat UF. Can you imagine if Jimbo sandbags this game and gets beat, NC State loses to Carolina but we are eliminated from the ACC Championship game with the loss and turn around and lose to UF 31-21 and finish 7-5. This fan base would be irate.
If given the choice, I would beat uf over MD
But, as doing that is not a given, I would take a win at MD over a chance of beating uf. An 8-4 season would be a success for us (9-3 phenomenal) – 7-5, after a 6-1 start, would be a bit disappointing.
Let’s beat MD. If the div falls to us, great. If we beat uf the next week, even better.
COMPLETELY agree
That would be disastrous and I have a hard time believing Jimbo would actually sandbag. That seems to be an action very much opposed to his “teachings”.
Getting to 8 wins is huge. This is a game we need to win. Worry about UF next week.
by SDnole on Nov 16, 2010 11:03 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd for being the right approach
I’m not saying that CJF hasn’t or isn’t thinking about “that little team down the road”. I’m sure he has weekly. But I do believe he’s going to focus on MD first, and then take everything he’s been thinking/planning all year for UF and concentrate on that.
Question about NCST Defensive FEI
I was just over at footballoutsiders and I noticed that NCST’s defensive FEI rank is 14th in the nation, while UNC’s is 23. I found this quite surprising, especially NCST’s high ranking.
On the other side, UNC’s offensive FEI rank is 23 while NCST’s is 43, again, sort of the opposite of what I was expecting.
I doubt that anyone will look here at this late date, but if you do, any thoughts on this?
strange.
I would wait a week and see what happens to the rankings. Repost in a new thread or in a running discussion thread if it is still strange upside down.
FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.
by onebarrelrum on Nov 17, 2010 3:03 AM EST up reply actions
Agree, I'd like to see discussion of this.
I’d bet a couple of “outliers” for UNC account for a good portion of their offensive rank — that is, their respective performances against LSU and FSU, where they put up ridiculous numbers against respectable defenses. Don’t know the explicit construction, but FEI rewards for strength of opponent, and Yates had HUGE games in both of those contests.
No idea what’s got NCSU’s defense looking so dandy, though.

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