I'm not sure how many of you watched The Late Show with Letterman last night, but he had Jerry Seinfeld on for a little stand up and a small interview. One of the things that Jerry said really struck me as relevant to Saturday's matchup between the Gators and Seminoles . He said "everything today is either great, or it sucks. There is nothing else. No in-between." And I got to thinking about how that is often true in the way people see things, but it's entirely incorrect.
Why? Because almost everything in life, and especially in college football, is either below average, average, or above average. Almost nothing is at the extremes of suck or great. We can see this with a bell curve.
I've heard it all week. "The Gators suck." "FSU's offense sucks." "FSU's defense sucks." Of course none of these are true. Florida's defense and Florida State's offense are both good to very good. Florida's Offense and Florida State's defense are average to perhaps above average. To say that any of these units "suck" or are great is simply wrong and a poor evaluation by fans. What we will see on Saturday is a matchup of two of the best 25 teams in the country, regardless of some meaningless poll voting influenced by record and not resume. Both of these teams play very difficult schedules. UF plays 8 bowl teams, as does FSU. It is a matchup of a top 20 offense (FSU) against a top 20 defense (Gators), and a top 50 defense (FSU) against a top 50 offense (Gators). There are about 20 teams better than UF and FSU, and about 90 worse squads. It is where these two teams are this year.
Want a great team? There aren't any this year. Perhaps Auburn depending on what you think of its defense. Want some teams that suck? New Mexico & New Mexico State
via Football Outsiders' Combined F/+ Ratings (highest correlation to winning of any statistical rating)
Inside, I'll review all the Gator games this year via the game chart.
UF-UGA not available (problem with graphic creator)