The Seminoles play their first "real" game of the season tonight at 7:45 when they take on the Florida Gators (4-1). UF's lone loss came against now #3 Ohio State. UF fans are somewhat uncertain about their chances to win tonight after struggling against Florida Atlantic and Morehead State.
UF has a very balanced offense with 4 of their starters averaging 10+ points per game. UF's leading scorer is 6'2 sophomore guard Kenny Boynton who provides 15.6 points per game. Boynton was easily UF's best player in their loss against Ohio State, with 21 points on 57.1% shooting and 5 of 8 from three point range. Chandler Parsons fills the role of #2 scorer and senior leader with 13.2 points per game.Last year, the Gators beat the Seminoles 68-52 in Gainesville. FSU shot 33.3% from the field and turned the ball over 23 times. The Seminoles struggled against the full court press and allowed UF to jump to a 39-19 lead at half. I don't expect the same result this year.
The gameplan for FSU to win this game is simple. On offense, the Seminoles only need to take care of the ball and exploit height mismatches. Snaer, Dulkys, and Singleton need to be involved in screens to get matched up against the extremely small Erving Walker (listed at 5'8, possibly shorter). Derwin Kitchen also has 8 inches and almost 30 lbs on Walker so posting up our point guard also is a legitimate possibility. Smart decisions and offensive efficiency is important.
Defensively, Snaer and Singleton have to force the ball away from Boynton and Parsons. With Snaer and Singleton's defensive talent there is no way that Boynton or Parsons should have a big game. Multiple Gators are capable of hitting threes so FSU needs to run guys off the line and force them to use their dribble.
Massey Ratings gives FSU an 83% win probability. The expected score is 74-65. This game, along with the game Tuesday against Ohio State, is going to go a long way to determine the future expectations of this Seminole team.