FanPost

"Famous" coaches W/L records improvement after taking over.

Just for fun, here's data on how an arbitrary list of "famous" coaches performed, won-loss-wise, after taking over programs. My list of coaches is arbitrary and capricious; they just came to mind. The method of evaluation I used was to compare the 5-year average number of wins at their school before they took over as HC to the two successive years they headed the program there. I used Stassen as my data source. I used 16 coaching experiences. Some coaches (Bear Bryant, UK and BAMA; Bobby Bowden, WVU and FSU; Jimmy Johnson, OSU amd UM) appear twice in the list. The other coaches whose first five years at an institution I looked at were Bud Wilkinson. Woody Haytes, Darrell Royal, Ara Parseghian, Bo Scembechler, Joe Paterno, Tom osnorne, Barry Switzer, Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer. The data proves nothing and is not shocking but I found it interesting (and comforting) and I hope you do too. Data and conclusions after the jump.

The data follows, my apologies for the formatting but I was unable to upload a JPEG of the chart.

Column 4 shows the average number of wins for the program in the five years before the coach took over.

Column 5, the standard deviation of those 5 data points.

Column 6 (YR 1) is the increase inwins over the previous five year average after the first year.

Column 7 (YR 2) shows the increase inwins over the previous five year average after the 2nd year.

The next two columns show the coaches win improvement from year 1 to 2 and year 2 to 3.

                                                                                                --- + Wins ---

Coach                 Team     Year    Av. Prv5    SD Prv5      Yr 1        Yr2       Delta 1-2    Delta 1-3

Bear Bryant           UK      1946       3.6            1.34           3.4          4.4                           -2

Bud Wilkinson      OU     1947        5.8           1.92           1.2           4.2          3                   4

Woody Hayes       OSU   1951       5.0            2.00          -1.0           1.0         2                   2

Darrell Royal         UT      1957       5.2           3.03             0.8          1.8                           3


Bear Bryant           UA      1958       2.8            2.28             2.2          4.2                           3

Ara Parseghian    ND     1964       3.8            1.64             5.2          3.2        -2                  0


Joe Paterno          PSU    1966      7.0            1.58             -2.0        1.0          3                    6


Bo Schembecler  UM      1969       6.2           2.28              1.8        2.8                             3


Bobby Bowden    WVU    1970      6.2            2.59              1.8         0.8         -1                   0


Tom Osborne      NU       1973      9.6            2.61              -0.6      -0.6          0                   1

Barry Switzer        OU       1973      8.4            2.41               1.6       2.6           1                   1

Bobby Bowden    FSU     1976       3.8          3.56                1.2       6.2                             3


Jimmy Johnson  OSU     1979      6.0           2.45                1.0      -3.0         -4                   0


Jimmy Johnson  UM       1984      8.2           2.28               -0.2       1.8           2                  3

Jim Tressel          OSU    2001      9.2            2.17              -2.2       4.8                            4

Urban Meyer         UF       2005      8.6           1.34                 0.4      4.4            4                  0
                     
                 Average Improvement (Games won)                 0.91    2.5         1.56              1.94

Observations: 

1. 12 of our 16 "great" coaches had more wins in their second year than thier first. One broke even.

2. The average win improvement for these guys in year one (over the previous 5-yer average) was .91.

3. The average win improvement for these guys after the 2nd year (over the previous 5-yer average) was 2.5

Also, I neglected to include Nick Saban at LSU from 2000 to 2004 (and who else?). LSU had averaged 6.6 wins the previous 5 with a standard deviation of 3.05. Saban's first year saw a 1.4 game improvement over the average  (8 wins) then a 3.4 win improivement in his second year, (10 wins) so his experience supports my final observation, that these good coaches, as expected, showed a huge improvement in wins during there second season as coach.    I suppose a study of crappy coaches would provide less hope for FSU fans but I believe Fisher is a well-grounded coach and individual and that we are likely to see substantial improvement for the Seminoles in 2011, year two of Jimbo's reign.       

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