ACC Bowl Projections & BlogPoll: Week 11

by onebarrelrum on Nov 9, 2010 6:51 PM EST in FSU Football

Here are this week's updated ACC Bowl projections.

Bowl Game	This Week	Last Week
Orange Bowl	VT (9-3)*	VT (9-3)
Chick-fil-A Bowl ACC #2 v. SEC 3/4/5	FSU (8-4)*	FSU (9-3)
Champs Sports Bowl ACC #3 v. BE #2/ ND	Clemson (7-5)	NCST (9-3)
Sun Bowl ACC #4 v. Pac 10 #4	UNC (8-4)	Clemson (6-6)
Meineke Car Care Bowl ACC #5 v. Big East #3	NCST (8-4)	GT (7-5)
Music City Bowl ACC #6 v. SEC 6/7/8	Miami (8-4)	Miami (8-4)
Independence Bowl ACC #7 v. MWC #3	GT (7-5)	UNC (7-5)
EagleBank Bowl ACC #8 v. Army or C-USA #6	MD (7-5)	MD (7-5)
Fight Hunger Bowl #9	BC (6-6)	BC (6-6)

Though no team has a great chance to win the Atlantic Division, FSU still has the best chance of those teams per Vegas. The real interesting thing here is that the bottom-tier teams will likely hope to play in the #9 bowl (San Fran) and not the #8 bowl (Shreveport, LA).

*= ACC Championship Participants

This is not a power poll. I don't attempt to rank teams based on how good I think they are. I only rank teams based on their resume. What have they done? Not how talented are their players or what other polls project them to do, but what have they done? The poll is designed to be dynamic. I try to start from scratch every week.

I do attempt to reward teams for "quality losses," while punishing them for poor performances. I do not give excessive credit for stomping horrible teams. I reward quality play, win or lose, particularly against other good teams. I am not bumping team A 10 spots and docking team B 10 spots when team A beats team B by a field goal in what was essentially an equally played game. I like to reward playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punish losing to poor teams more harshly than I reward defeating poor teams. To that end, TCU and Boise will probably not climb much higher in my poll for the rest of the year because they don't really play anyone. And if those two don't blow out the weak competition every week they will start to slip in addition to not climbing.

I Reward Grinders. I reward those who play difficult schedules. Teams that play a tough team every week don't get to spend extra time preparing for their tough games, and they also don't face the attrition other teams face because they are able to pull their starters in blowouts. Fewer plays for important players reduces the chance those players will get injured.

Change my mind using my criteria if you can.

1. Auburn

2. Oregon

3. LSU

4. TCU

5. Boise State

6. Wisconsin

7. Ohio State

8. Stanford

9. Michigan St

10. Nebraska

11. Alabama

12. Arkansas

13. Iowa

14. Mississippi State

15. Arizona

16. Oklahoma

17. Virginia Tech

18. Oklahoma State

19. Missouri

20. South Carolina

21. Florida

22. UCF

23. North Carolina

24. NC State

25. Texas A&M

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Comments

Switch us and Clemson for record and bowl game

by TampaLawNole on Nov 9, 2010 6:55 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Clemson would have to beat both FSU and SoCar to do that

Unlikely

This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.

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by Bud Elliott on Nov 9, 2010 6:58 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry I meant us 7-5 only. Don't see us winning 2 more

by TampaLawNole on Nov 9, 2010 7:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

With games vs. Clemson, @Maryland, and vs. Florida,

I’m assuming that means you think we beat Maryland, but lose the other two?

I think the game with Clemson is probably a 65% chance of winning, since it’s at home and they are missing Ellington. Ponder may be out, but EJ did very well in back-up duties last year, and it’s at home at night.

The Maryland game is a little bit higher, IMO, because I don’t think Maryland is all that good. Their record is mostly smoke and mirrors to this point, and the only thing that really scares me about that game is that it’s at night. I’d mark that as 70-75% FSU win.

The Florida game is looking more and more like a toss-up to me, but it’s still at home. I wouldn’t be surprised either way on the result of that one, but it doesn’t affect the ACC CCG race at all.

In sum, I’m fairly confident FSU ends up 2-1 over the last three, (1.85-1.9 wins). That may not be enough to make the ACC CCG, but it would take some solid play down the whole stretch from NCSU and a little luck for the Wildcats as well.

"I think so, Brain, but how are we going to get the bacon flavoring into the pencils?"

by MikeLew on Nov 9, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions

Worst possible game for EJ

to go in against, in my opinion, is this one. Clemson D is no joke. Think closer to what he did against UF last year than WF…

FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.

by onebarrelrum on Nov 9, 2010 7:11 PM EST up reply actions

He didn't come here to sit on the bench.

He can still make multiple guys miss in the open field. CT LP EJ on the option read is unstoppable.

by Mannieblunts on Nov 9, 2010 7:19 PM EST up reply actions

I'm sure you're right.

FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.

by onebarrelrum on Nov 9, 2010 7:24 PM EST up reply actions

Lay off the blunts Mannie

Gripper Nation - Against Miami: Bobby Bowden .400 Winning %: All other FSU coaches combined .500 Winning %

by RaysnNoles on Nov 9, 2010 10:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

i love being right

ab alabama being overrated….i said it before…ill said it all year…they have more issues than saban wants others to know

by jhunter723 on Nov 9, 2010 7:41 PM EST reply actions

I'd kill for those issues

by NoleFrenzy on Nov 9, 2010 8:19 PM EST up reply actions

I'd watch

by norcal_nole on Nov 9, 2010 8:22 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think Saban was the conductor on the hype train

The media told everyone Bama was a machine and after they housed a UF team most people didn’t realize had “issues” it got ridiculous.

FSU: 8-4 or bust

by Jamil Dawson on Nov 9, 2010 9:24 PM EST up reply actions

I really like EJ, but we need Ponder in this game.

I expect to see a lot of soft coverage from our DBs, maybe an overreaction from UNC game. I’d look for screen, screen, and screen some more from CU. I think they’re likely to put up a fair amount of points. Don’t expect a lot of success on the ground against their defense. I’m worried EJ won’t be able to step in and replicate the newly found rhythm in the passing game. Sadly, I think we drop this game.

"Some people call it swagger, we call it preparation." - Vic Viloria

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Nov 9, 2010 8:32 PM EST reply actions

not calling win or lose right now

but the FSU D has actually been pretty good at reading screens. Also CU wont have the best guy on the field for their RB screens.

FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.

by onebarrelrum on Nov 9, 2010 9:04 PM EST up reply actions

I meant WR screens

assuming soft coverage in response to the UNC game.

"Some people call it swagger, we call it preparation." - Vic Viloria

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Nov 9, 2010 9:44 PM EST up reply actions

ah.

that could happen. I just don’t want another HOLY CRAP WHY IS THAT GUY RUNNING FREE experience. Please God no more.

FSU Football, making bad teams look bad since 2010.

by onebarrelrum on Nov 10, 2010 12:00 AM EST up reply actions

I seriously doubt CP7 plays this weekend.

With the news of Ponder being operated on and undergoing anesthesia, more is going on with his elbow that we are being told.
Ponder likely underwent one of two minor procedures: either (1) the disinfecting and draining of his bursa sac, or (2) the surgical removal of it. Though minor, both will require him to keep his arm in a sling for several days and will ultimately depend on giving his injury time to heal properly.

With Clemson a mere 4 days away, we’ll likely have to do without him. Thankfully EJ is very capable for a RS Sophomore. Whether he can get into a rhythm with our receivers is another matter. Here’s hoping he can.

"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County

"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra

by Dogrel on Nov 10, 2010 2:05 AM EST up reply actions

I have high hopes for EJ.

But, Ponder gives us the best chance every Saturday. Sucks that we FINALLY get the passing game going and now he’s out (didn’t know the details til you provided) for our last chance to stay in the ACC race.

"Some people call it swagger, we call it preparation." - Vic Viloria

by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Nov 10, 2010 2:16 AM EST up reply actions

FSU just needs to

finish within one game of the second place team to be the choice of the Chick-fil-a Bowl. Remember, it’s not the #2 team in the Chick-fil-a Bowl — the Chick-fil-a Bowl gets the first choice after the Orange Bowl.

With everyone but Virginia Tech having two losses, FSU just needs to split the last two ACC games to finish eligible to be selected (the CB is restricted to picking within one game of the top available team) IF Virginia Tech is the ACC champ or drops two of its last three ACC games (@ UNC, @ Miami, hosting Virginia).

And the CB could well be very interested in FSU. They haven’t hosted FSU since well before FSU joined the ACC, the TV appeal is probably better than most other ACC teams that would be candidates for the game, and Atlanta is close enough to appeal to many potential traveling fans.

by Wild@Heart Nole on Nov 9, 2010 9:24 PM EST reply actions

FSU v Bama?

FSU v USCe (and Spurrier)?

Both games would get HUGE ratings IMO especially the former.

FSU: 8-4 or bust

by Jamil Dawson on Nov 9, 2010 9:27 PM EST up reply actions

FSU will not get selected to play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl if Clemson is eligible.

by Lpfsu511 on Nov 10, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

Why

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by Bud Elliott on Nov 10, 2010 5:13 PM EST up reply actions

FSU v Bama

This is my dream. Wouldn’t expect us to win, so a loss isn’t a killer. But a win? Ho ho baby! Not gonna happen though, Bama’s going to bigger and better like the cotton or outback

by SalmonNole on Nov 10, 2010 12:48 AM EST reply actions