FanPost

A Closer Look at the FSU Scheduling Disparity


As pointed out in the Duke Basketball Report, FSU (along with Duke) is getting screwed this year with our basketball schedule.  To summarize their article they looked at off-days between ACC basketball match-ups, and specifically at the number of days each team has to prepare for the game.  If FSU, for example, were playing Maryland, the author looked at how many days there were since the previous game for both teams.  For tomorrow night's matchup FSU last played on January 30th, whereas Maryland played on the 31st, so the author considered this a scheduling advantage for FSU.  However that doesn't happen often this year, as FSU and Duke both play 10 league games in which they've had less time to prepare than the other guy.  The author concludes that this is a "huge disadvantage given to Florida State and Duke."

Reading the DBR article, I got the sense that our "huge disadvantage" was actually a perceived disadvantage, and that the author hadn't actually looked at how Duke or any other ACC team performs when they have less time to prepare than their opponent.  It makes sense that if Team X has one more day to prepare than Team Y then this would be advantageous for Team X, but when you look at data a lot of things that seem to make sense actually don't.  And I wondered if this is one of them.

For a dataset I chose the 2005-06 season as a starting point as that was the first year in our current run of not sucking.  Prior to that we lost to all comers, regardless of prep time.  And since I don't give a shit about Duke I only looked at FSU games.  I also eliminated ACC Tourney games, due to the fact that the schedule is seed dependent.

First I looked at how often we got "screwed" with scheduling, to make sure that FSU wasn't always getting the short end of the scheduling stick.  A '+' indicates we had more time than our opponent, a '-' indicates that we had less.  It turns out that the ACC is at least consistent with their inconsistencies. (Note: table includes entire 2009-10 season, not just games played to date)

Year

+

-

=

2005-06

1

4

11

2006-07

6

3

7

2007-08

8

5

3

2008-09

7

3

6

2009-10

4

10

2

Totals

26

25

29

I then looked at how we performed under each of those scenarios, to see if that author was correct that we were under a "huge disadvantage."  Our overall record, for reference sake, since 2005-06 is 37-34 (.521).

 

Wins

Losses

%

+

13

11

.542

-

11

9

.550

=

13

14

.481

So in games where we either play at an advantage or a disadvantage we've played above .500, and in games in which the prep time is equal we've played slightly under .500.  What does this mean?  Well, I'm certainly not ready to conclude that we want a schedule comprised solely of mis-matched preparation times, but it does make me leary about the Duke Basketball Report's conclusion that we're getting screwed.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Tomahawk Nation

You must be a member of Tomahawk Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Tomahawk Nation. You should read them.

Join Tomahawk Nation

You must be a member of Tomahawk Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Tomahawk Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker