Missed Opportunity: Florida State Seminoles Lose to Clemson Tigers 53-50
by TrueCubbie on Feb 28, 2010 10:13 PM EST
in FSU Basketball
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PrintWhat if? It's easy as a sports fan to put on the retroscope and look at any game and ask 'what if?' Unfortunately for the Seminoles, this will be a game that not only receives a lot of 'what ifs' tonight and tomorrow but also from here until the end of their season. This was a missed opportunity for the Seminoles to take sole possession of third place in the conference and put themselves in a good position to be guaranteed a bye in the ACC tournament. Now, they have work to do.
Clemson did not score for the first seven minutes of the game. That should have been game, set, match with Florida State cruising to victory. If that wasn't enough, the Tigers had another four minute scoring drought in the first half. Game over, right? The Seminoles only had a 19-6 lead with just over four minutes to go in the first half. One would think that would have been the time to put the game out of reach. Instead, Clemson went on a 13-2 run to finish the first half only down by two points.
Clemson started the second half with an 8-0 run. They out scored the Seminoles 21-2 over a seven minute thirty eight second stretch that bridged halftime. Florida State worked its way back into the game only to see Clemson move ahead again. This occurred twice before Florida State appeared to take control of the game with about ten minutes to go. In a game that really felt that the first one to 50 would win, the Seminoles opened up a six point lead. One would think that in a game that neither team could score, that would be enough to get the job done.
It wasn't. With 2:35 to go, Tanner Smith hit a three point shot from the corner. Smith was shooting 28.4% from deep on the season. From that point forward, Seminoles fans had a sinking feeling in their stomach and a sense of deja vu: missed free throws and turnovers. Chris Singleton missed two free throws with 1:24 to go. Solomon Alabi went 1-2 from the line with fourteen seconds to go. Michael Snaer had a turnover on an inbound pass that led to an Andre Young three pointer on the next possession. It was one thing after another.
All of that led to the Seminoles having the ball with seven seconds to go and down by three points. Dulkys ended up with the ball in the corner in front of the Seminoles bench. Trevor Booker recognized the play and left the post to defend Dulkys. It resulted in a block. There was not shot fake. Dulkys went right up with the shot only to see Booker come down with it. Six seconds were left on the clock. Booker gets fouled, makes two free throws. Game over.
It was a terrible game for both teams. Florida State had an eFG% of 38%. Clemson had an eFG% of 33%. Clemson had an offensive efficiency of 80. Florida State had an offensive efficiency of 79.9. The big difference in the game was the free throw shooting and turnovers. Florida State shot 58% from the strip compared to 78.9% for the Tigers. And to cap it all off, Florida State turned the ball over on 31.9% of their possessions.
It's time to move on. Wake Forest rolls into the Tucker Center on Wednesday night. In order for Florida State to go 10-6 in conference play, they must win that game. Florida State can still finish in third place in the conference, but they will need some help. At this point, aiming for a first round bye is reasonable, but they need to win both of the remaining games.
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This sucks...
We handed them the game, no reason to menatlly blow the game vs. them, and our FT shooting is dreadful. We need to bounce back vs Wake and feel we will.
by NolesHeatBraves on Feb 28, 2010 10:27 PM EST reply actions
UF laid out the blueprint for beating this team...
Full court press for most of the game. The Noles have below average guard play right now. We don’t have a true point guard.
Also, I don’t know how we went from being a top free throw shooting team last year to a horrible free throw team this year. Did Shaq take over that area?
talk about miserable
the team needs to go back to being confident
what is it about Clemson that make them afraid to shoot?
Credit Clemson. They do have the 6th best defense in the country according to Pomeroy.
And, Pomeroy just updated his stats based on tonight’s games.
Florida state now has the number one defense in the nation, despite the loss.
www.Tomahawknation.com
Maybe
The lady noles can give a class or 2 on the subject. They are playing better than anyone but uconn.
is dulky's really bad off?
he shot well today, but was passed over during crunch time
im refering to the last 4 minutes of the game
did you take some kind of post grad course on being annoying? or are you simply naturally gifted?
ummm. . .
I agree with trick
He went 1-2 from 3 land in the last 4 minutes, and then threw up a third three with 0.4 seconds left. Oh wait, there were 7 seconds, he just looked like there was 0.4 seconds left by how quickly he wanted the ball out of his hands.
by freshcollegeboy on Feb 28, 2010 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
actually he sat the bench the last 4 - 5 minutes of the game until that last play
which is why i posed the question – its never a good idea to have a cold guy shoot a high-pressure shot w/ the game on the line
(even when snear twisted his ankle lh went w/ louckes instead of dulkys)
Dulkys' ball handling isn't where we need it to be to survive the press.
That’s why he was on the bench. Don’t know that it makes sense to stick him back in there for that last shot, but he is still our best 3 pt. shooter.
The frustrating thing to me is that the only way we get the ball down the court is to hit Singleton near mid-court. He picks up his 2 fouls in the 2nd half and has to sit, and we basically melt down against their press and let them back in the game.
The handwriting was on the wall when the officials just let them scratch and claw their way back into the game, though. Hard to beat a team when you’re getting physically abused without any recourse… and then when you catch a break and call something, you miss the front-end of your one-and-one.
Singleton just has to shoot FTs better, or else Hack-a-Chris will remain the best strategy for beating us.
i dont know about the ball-handling argument
louckes and kitchen both played horribly –
how many times did they make terrible decisions against teh press – and get bailed out on terrible passes (my favorite was when dk literally dribbled off his knee and it bounced to singleton) and they had what 7 turnovers b/t them
its not like dulkys could do much worse -
plus when we really struggled to score (thats putting it lightly) im not sure why you bench your best shooter who stretches the d, opens things up for your bigs and was %50 from distance b/f that last ‘shot’
I think he doesn't have a left hand or something.
We don’t put him in ball handling situations… but my inferences are based on him not being on the floor as much as otherwise. I think he burned us pretty badly against presses earlier this year, and showed a weakness that we don’t want exploited.
Agree that Loucks and Kitchen have had their struggles as well though. Not sure if it was worth the trade-off of not having him on the court, or not. Given the outcome, I’d obviously lament not changing our approach now, but then again, Singleton hits 1 of freaking 2 and who knows what happens.
1 step forward
and 6 steps back. It’s just painful to watch this team play. How did Clemson go 11 minutes without scoring in the 1st half and only go into the break down 2? I know it’s a rhetorical question…..The lack of any cohesive offensive is……incredible at this stage of the season.
We Could
have 6 guys on the floor & have trouble breaking the press.
by 30yearnole on Mar 1, 2010 9:46 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
so is this FSU basketball
we’re talking about? Or is this FSU football the entire time Jeff Bowden coached?
I’m getting confused with the whole “we suck so bad” and “If only we had an offense in the top 80% of the country”. Seriously, saying “Our defense is great, we just can’t score” is bringing up sickening nostalgia.
by freshcollegeboy on Feb 28, 2010 11:35 PM EST reply actions
simply put
down the stretch, for the past few years, coach hamilton has come up really small. we always find a way to lose winable games at the end of the season to end up on the bubble for the NCAA torney.
as for this year, i think our guards are good at handling the ball. no, none are true PGs but i dont think handling the ball is as big of a problem as the passing. our bigs have terrible hands and our guards make terrible passes. maybe we should have them practice with bricks like receivers do in football.
and when are we going to finally get a real offensive coordinator to stabilize that half of our team. we’re either moving around way too much, to the point where our players are running into each other. or not moving around at all and we start hurling up 3s. install a high pick and roll or a triangle offense. but do something. we can’t wait around and hope someone turns into the next douglas or thornton.
Completely disagree.
Come up really small down the stretch? Does ACCT runner-up, including handing the eventual national champion their final loss, count?
And in terms of the previous few years, we’ve generally finished a lot better than we started. It’s nonconference scheduling and digging ourselves into an early ACC hole that has been our achilles’ heal.
Not to downplay
your arguement but all anyone remembers about last year is our one & done trip to the tourney and a guy named Toney. Subtract that guy and we would have been acc bottom feeders, which simply goes to show that one great player can carry a team. Plus I’d argue the reasons for the archilles heal in previous years isn’t the scheduling or the early hole in acc play, it’s the coaching.
We have close to the same personnel, minus Toney, and are tied for 3rd place.
You cannot separate the players and the coaching. The coach brings in the players. You must evaluate the total product.
We’re a top 4 program in this conference over the last 2 years and will remain there barring some sort of catastrophic injury string or mass exodus of players.
To help your perspective; what roster and coaching staff in the ACC would you trade for our current one?
Duke, UNC, Maryland, and Wake Forest without thinking twice about it. Georgia Tech after some consideration.
Don’t have the time to put more consideration into it, but at least those 5.
You said roster and coaching staff.
Their coaching staff is a concern, but has had much more success than Leonard Hamilton ever has.
Like I said, we're on different planets, or different time dimensions.
I live on earth, circa 2010, and GT isn’t making a Final 4 run. The program trajectories have been somewhat diametrically opposed since then.
Georgia Tech has had 2 awful seasons in the past 5. They've had one mediocre season, and 2 that would constitute the level of success that Leonard Hamilton has brought to FSU.
I believe the debate between our rosters is at least a fair question. I believe Hewitt has shown an ability to recruit elite talent. I believe Hewitt has also coached teams to far more success than Hamilton ever has.
You asked me which coaching staff and which roster I would trade for ours. You didn’t ask me about 2008-2009 Georgia Tech, you asked me about right now.
We'll have better than 8-8 for three years running after next season.
Maybe I’m actually speaking to you from circa 2011?
Like I said, though, we’re going to have to get into a discussion of childhood experiences growing up, hopes/dreams, favorite colors, etc., etc., because it will take a lot of groundwork for us to come to any consensus on anything, seeing this divergence in perspective on this point.
Really not throwing your opinion out, but I just don’t think we can find any commonality through a message board dialogue. “Agree to disagree,” as they say.
Oh Yes You Can
whether in sports or business you absolutely separate the players from the coach. Take the same players with a different staff and you end up with a different result.
Geez
Insert new staff with same players. I’ve done exactly the same thing in the real world and turned an underperforming group into a consistently high achievers simply by removing the person responsible at the top. It’s not rocket science.
For about 2 years, you might do well.
And then you’ve got the “new guy” bringing in his kids.
This is where you have to start arguing about candidates, because it is complete speculation that you’re going to find the guy that is going to take the recruiting and coaching (i.e., total product) to above our current standing in the top third of the conference. It’s your argument, name your guy.
If I learned anything during the Jimbo Fisher DC article writing phase, you throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks.
So I’ll start with Kurtis Townsend, KU assistant.
... even though a search for him immediately results in "Kurtis Townsend recruiting violations"
He was never convicted of any crime!!!
=)
by MattDNole on Mar 1, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'll admit -- Hamilton's off the court record...
…counts as much as 1-2 wins, in my book.
Maybe that’s a reactionary stance to football, but it means a lot to me to have kids that I can genuinely cheer for, in life, beyond the program…
Alexander Johnson, anyone?
But — feel free to disagree, as there’s no way I can vouch for this — I sincerely believe he is takes a deep interest in helping these kids get their lives in order, versus, say a Calipari.
I would stop watching the program if we brought in Calipari. In that scenario, go ahead and enjoy those Final 4’s without me.
I wouldn't simply because any Final Four would be stricken from the record books.
His results are pretty good, otherwise.
"Trick is right."
I think saying FSU will remain a top 4 program in the conference barring catastrophic events is a stretch
Duke, UNC, and Maryland are going to consistently finish in the top 3. Outside of them, I think you will see a fluctuation between Ga Tech, Wake Forest, FSU, and Clemson (with an occasional Va Tech team). I don’t think that FSU fits the bill of a consistent top 4 program with Hamilton as your head coach. He recruits on the level of an Oliver Purnell, Hewitt, and Gaudio and is probably just as average of a coach. I think the fact that all these teams are jumbled together this year proves this point.
If/when Ga Tech gets rid of Hewitt they will be an even bigger threat. They sit in a hot bed for talent. When they actually get a head coach who can actually teach and make in game adjustments, they should be a serious threat in the ACC every year.
Maryland without Vazquez will be a 6-win team, at best.
Georgia Tech (Lawal, Favors?), Wake (Aminu, Ish Smith), Clemson (Booker), VT (Delaney), Duke (the Big Three) all suffer huge departures.
Agree that GT as a program has huge potential but not with Hewitt, and it will take more than a year for his successor to turn them around.
All in all… even if we show zero improvement over this season we should still finish top 4. And I believe Ian Miller is going to “wow” us. One qualification.. if both Singleton AND Alabi leave then I’d put it 50/50 that we do take a step back..
I already think we need to dump one of the assistants for some help.
We need a guy to help our guards. I just don’t think you throw out the baby with the bath water, especially while program trajectory is still positive.
If we don’t suffer the Singleton and Alabi NBA exodus… then a 6 win or less season probably means termination for Hamilton. If we end up between 7-8 wins, miss tourney, then we need a wholesale assistant coach overhaul, at least.
If we win 9+, I’d still like a shakeup in the assistant staff (Crawford?), but as long as we’re making the tournament you kind of have to trust your coach to make those decisions.
Ok.
You at least recognize that there are some serious issues with the program. Starting by shaking up the assistants as at least a step in the right direction.
I am completely uncomfortable with this same coaching staff going into next season. We have to find a new assistant. If we do, and the results do not improve, Hamilton must go. If Hamilton refuses, then he must go.
Our offense simply must improve. It is a major flaw that limits the development of this program and it must be remedied.
Agree, but I would venture to guess the list of coaching failures is longer than the list of successes, for programs without elite history...?
We’ve got a pretty good thing going — I think the most grating element is precisely due to the potential we see in front of us — mostly as a result of Hamilton — and then that juxtaposition of the offense (bottom of ACC) vs. defense (top).
If we simply cut down our turnovers by 3-4 a game, we’d practically be an ACC buzzsaw. Can’t we find a targeted solution for that??? Isn’t there an assistant out there that can help?
You want clean or shady?
Try TJ Cleveland.
He happens to coach for THE guy who I wish was FSU’s coach, so he’d be a bit of a compromise for me.
The compromise would be that if I can't have Mike Anderson, I'll gladly take a former Mike Anderson point guard and 8 year Mike Anderson assistant to work with our guards.
His resume screams “improved guard play” and “efficient offense.”
And here's where I would also trust Hamilton...
…not to bring in a “shady” character on staff. So if he gets a Mike Anderson disciple, I’ll trust he’s a clean one.
I agree the ACC could lose a lot next year
But I think Delaney stays at VT for his senior year. That means they bring back everyone.
I don’t think Clemson will have too big of a drop off because little Booker hustles and plays better defense than Trevor.
Duke will bring back Nolan Smith and Singler. Plus they bring in little Curry and Kyrie Irving. They might be VERY good next year.
Agree that Duke will still be very good next year.
Thought Nolan Smith was a senior. Still, I think they’ll inevitably be more vulnerable without Scheyer. Potential to do more damage at end of season, but they’ll probably suffer a little early in the season.
I know you’re right in the thick of things.. but Clemson is Trevor Booker. Little bro ain’t up to par yet; they’ll miss Trevor’s free throws at the end of games. Senior teams do well in the ACC, and you folks will be young.
Duke’s starting 5 will be Irving, Smith, Singler, Plumlee x2. They might struggle with a freshman point guard at first, but it will help in the long run. Duke can’t be a team like Villanova, Kentucky, Kansas, etc because they have extremely quick and athletic guards. Scheyer can’t guard them and they can shut him down with their quickness.
I can see why you would think that about Clemson, and it’s the same way I felt going into the season. But Trevor plays at half speed most games, doesn’t give great effort, and disappears in big games in the 2nd half. I think bringing back a senior PG (Stitt) and a junior PG (Young) is more valuable than having experience on the front line.
Your second argument in favor of Clemson is why I see Duke struggling.
Ask UNC — regardless of potential, a green backcourt typically isn’t fun to deal with in the ACC.
As an outside observer…. you’re taking Booker for granted. You’ll miss him more than you think. His poise at the FT line (versus our sophs) won you the game last night.
singler will likely go pro
he’ll be a def 1st round pick, knocking on the door of the lottery
unc could be the preseason #1 in the conference even if davis goes pro:
zeller
wear
henson
mcdonald
drew 2
I think it is less than 50% that Singler goes pro
He has been far more inconsistent this year than people expected. He was talked about as ACC POY, but is not going to come close. I think he comes back next year knowing that they will have a very strong team.
UNC should be very good. I agree with that. But they need to change their mental makeup, because right now losing doesn’t seem to bother them. I think Harrison Barnes starts from day 1. His game seems to be that polished.
Zeller
Henson
Barnes
McDonald
Drew/Strickland
id be impressed if barnes started from day one
if for no other reason, roy really likes upperclassmen –
and this year theyre getting crushed on the boards
but he’ll def be in the rotation
theyll likely be loaded, but untill they get their pg situation worked out, i think theyll struggle to get the most of their wings/bigs
Not to offend our Clemson guest, welcome btw, I do think Hamilton outrecruits Purnell.
Purnell gets more out of his players, but Hamilton gets better prospects. I agree that Hewitt and Gaudio are on par with Hamilton in recruiting.
I actually think Gary Williams is a step behind Hamilton in recruiting lately as well.
But Gary Williams can coach worse prospects to better results than Leonard Hamilton.
/definitive
Gary Williams has mortal defect.
Doesn’t deal with the AAU circus and play that recruiting game. It’s commendable, in one sense, but I think he’s going to continue to suffer to bring in the talent he needs. Maryland is in a conundrum.
I will agree with that
But Clemson is closing the gap. Last years class was very good (two 4* and a 5*). 2011 should be a pretty good year. Damien Leonard is a 5* and Clemson lean.
Maryland doesn’t recruit as well as any of the schools that I mentioned, but Gary Williams is a much better coach than any of those others, which IMO more than offsets the difference. If Gary actually put effort into recruiting then Maryland would be scary. The amount of talent in the DC/Baltimore area is ridiculous.
Jennings is a complete stud
I think the two 4*s were a bit overrated (assuming you’re looking at Rivals)
Not no, but heck no.
Wake
2010: three 4 stars and a 3
2009: one 4 and two 3 stars
2008: three 5 stars and an unranked
Prosser died in July 2007. Gauido is a bit of a pimp.
Gaudi actually recruited those guys as assistant coach
Which I think is the reason that he was promoted. Those recruits basically said that they would keep their commitment as long as Gaudio was promoted to head coach.
See, IMHO, you throw out those 3 five stars, they were Prossers.
Gaudio held them, but what were they going to do, pee on Prosser’s grave?
I agree they would, and he gets some credit for keeping them,
…but not full credit to add to his track record as “head coach.”
Uhh... I'm gonna go ahead and disagree with you on that one.
Last 10 games of the regular season for FSU basketball teams in the Leonard Hamilton era
2009-2010 (last 8 games with 2 remaining): 5-3
2008-2009: 7-3
2007-2008: 5-5
2006-2007: 5-5
2005-2006: 7-3
2004-2005: 1-9
2003-2004: 4-6
2002-2003: 3-7
The team looks to be above .500 this year. That would make 3 times in 8 years. I hardly think that suggests this program consistently finishes seasons strong.
Number 1, I don't think you understand "/definitive."
Number 2, I don’t have to. You made the statement that we “dug ourselves into a hole in the non-conference and early ACC” and that’s simply not the case. Going .500, by definition, is not “digging ourselves out of a hole”. It is maintaining what we have already produced.
I understand the coding angle of the slash, ending a line.
And I was simply pointing out that I thought the above was a “definitive” statement of the case.. adding the “/definitive” remark highlights this notion as a bit tongue in cheek, realizing that no single statement is going to end and argument about this particularly contentious program/coach. Is that OK?
Further, you can’t simply look at a record to determine how far you’ve dug yourself, either. E.g., I’d say losing to NC State earlier this year was a shovel load worth at least 2 games, at face value. I’m talking about under-performing early, and then having to make up ground. So there’s a subjective element to it, and I would argue (this year included), we’ve played better later in the season than early.
Ten games also seems arbitrary… I don’t know if you’ve pulled together our streaks over the last 5 or last 8 games of the season (half of the conference slate), either, but that might provide further insight.
Last, I was more strongly arguing AGAINST the original point that I was replying to, that we have tanked down the end of the season, which your statistics argue against, as well.
But I believe a truly "/definitive" statement would have looked more like this...
“There isn’t another program in the ACC who has finished .500 for 5 straight years.”
Thank you for the /definitive edumacation.
a) I’ll
2) try
d) to do better next time
green) using the TN-speak.
Aside from ill-advised bullet use, of course.
I think it occurs whenever you lead a line off with a numeric value?
Auto formats it into a bullet list, and “corrects” for you by starting with #1?
I only did the regular season.
But there were a few years where we played like 17 or 18 conference games not counting the tournament. Specifically 2002 and 2003. I only counted the regular season though.
OK, didn't recall the dynamics pre-expansion.
Assumed it’s always been 16.
Regardless, if you break down that last 8 versus first 8, you’d see a lot more W’s in the 2nd (latter-half) column. Again, lots of subjectivity in there, but if nothing else, this disproves any blanket notion of tanking down the stretch.
arrdub wins
you have to throw out the first 3 yrs b/c they weren’t his players as upperclassmen and there was no talent there. If memory serves me correctly, a big component of the 3-5 was when TD went down as a soph and we subsequently lost 4 in a row. I like to think we finish at least 5-3 this yr so a 5-3 finish in 4 out of 5 yrs in the ACC with the outlier occurring when your best player goes down w/ injury is pretty impressive. As arrdub asked, can anybody but K and roy match that?
Don't dig it back up.
I think MattD’s head exploded trying to bash some sense into me last time… but I’m still tightly wed to my ignorance.
So if we're looking at the gross domestic product of Louisiana,
Do we not at least place a footnote next to 2005?
I'm comfortable with footnotes. I'm not comfortable with throwing out.
Footnote away. Mention Toney’s injury. Mention Al Thornton. Mention Tim Pickett. Mention Toney’s All-ACC performance.
Don’t say “there were different circumstances in this situation so the results don’t matter as much.”
i got the 'office space' reference
well played
you're just looking at raw numbers
as i said, we lose winable games down the stretch, not collapse down the stretch. the fact that we have gone .500 or above in the past few years doesnt tell the whole story when in fact we have gone 7-9 in overall conference play in most of these years; last year of course being the best year we’ve ever had. the point i was making was that there were always 1 or 2 winable games that would have given us a more impressive record for the Selection Committee and given us better seeding in the ACCT where we didnt have to play UNC in the 2nd round. 1 or 2 winable games that we lost.
For example:
Late lost to VT that ended with a 4-12 ACC record (05-06) – we ended 9-7
6 game losing streak in (06-07) – we ended 7-9
Two late loses to average WF and Maryland teams (07-08) – we ended 7-9
I wouldnt even count the 9 game losing streak (04-05) because we were terrible anyway.
For the record, I'm not the one that brought in the raw numbers.
He was using that to support your case, I guess. And while I agree we have had some bad losses late. But not more than early season. Most of those losses you are citing are ACC road losses, which happen to every ACC team, throughout the season.
On the whole, and I think the records do help to demonstrate this (contrary to MattD’s intent), our teams play better basketball towards the end of the season than the beginning.
If you simply phrased it as, “we drop too many games that we shouldn’t,” then I wouldn’t have as much of an argument with you. The ones that occur late in the season hurt more, because more acute NCAA-bubble circumstances highlight their importance, but they are not an anomaly to our team versus others, or suggestive of a common trend in our play over the course of the season.
Dude, compare WINS over the first 8, versus last 8.
Even if we go from 1-7 and then 3-5, it’s improvement over the course of the season. A certain winning % (.500) is arbitrary for this analysis. If you’re saying we play “winning basketball,” that’s another argument.
Maybe we did tank in 2004-05 and before, but I really don’t remember and don’t really care. I just remember us being BAD, overall. But this has not been a characteristic of the team in recent history. We’re going on 3 years in a row with improvement… 4 of the last 5.. which is enough to distinguish “recent” from “historic”…. and the lone exception in this slate, 2006-07, was the year Toney broke his hand. Anomaly in the trend, and you can find the direct cause.
You've suddenly changed the discussion to only the ACC schedule.
It’s nonconference scheduling and digging ourselves into an early ACC hole that has been our achilles’ heal.
You really think we have performed worse in our non-conference scheduling than those numbers I posted?
So when the “numbers” didn’t give the answer you wanted, you changed the question.
I have not changed my argument. /definitive
Kidding aside, when talking about nonconference “scheduling,” I am referring to us shooting ourselves in the foot BEFORE THE SEASON STARTS, independent of winning/losing these games. It kills our RPI, damaging our chances for a tournament appearance if we manage to get in the discussion. Probably have lost at least 2 bids due to scheduling, in isolation.
And is conference versus non-conference really an arbitrary break, to gauge performance? From my perspective, it doesn’t really make sense to include a slate of games with 8 cupcakes, 1 contender, then another 3 cupcakes, etc. into any discussion of a trend in performances. Record is almost entirely opponent-dictated.
And seriously, are you going to find a BCS conference team..
… that has a better conference record than nonconference? That’s a completely useless metric.
Nevertheless (and I don't have time to go back and look at it)...
when you look at this little “streak” over the past 4 seasons we have been anywhere from 8-8 to 10-6.
Yes, going 7-3 in the last ten is an improvement over 3-3 in the first 6.
Going 5-5 is exactly the same as 3-3, not significantly different from 2-4 or 4-2
And then when you look at the last 8 conference game numbers I posted, we really are no different at the end of ACC season than at the beginning.
The more significant ACC trend with FSU basketball is that we consistently hover around 2-2 in every 4 game split, with 0-4 being more likely than 4-0.
Wha?
I really am not following, it’s as clear as day to me.
First, you have to limit to ACC because of the discussed fluctuations in the nonconference slate, right?
Then, if we’re talking about conference slate to at least control for some degree of homogeneity, don’t you want to split the conference season in half?
I think if you pit those records against one another, AT THE VERY LEAST, you can toss aside any notion of a late season collapse (original point I had to interject against). It just isn’t there. We’re static over the course of the season, at worst, and I would guess the objective data prove us better than static, a notion that my subjective impression agrees with.
That's the point, the objective data does NOT prove we are better than static.
You are drawing unmerited conclusions.
In fact, that's a test statistic of .56 on 14 degrees of freedom.
There is no significant difference in FSU’s record in the first half of ACC play and the second half of ACC play.
And if you wish to only use the last 5 years, that T statistic is .59 on 8 degrees of freedom.
Still not significant.
Any other bad seasons you'd like for me to leave out to improve your case?
Seriously, just stick with static. There isn’t an evidence of improvement.
Which still makes me RIGHT in calling out the original post as errant/unfounded.
Burden of proof is on the original poster. So mine is simply a peripheral error, and more of an “unsubstantiated rumor.”
I still think we at least marginally improve over the course of the season, and it’s ultimately impossible to objectively determine that nuance… so, while your figures do not reveal any profound differences in outcomes, I can trust my intuition on this, and remain entirely safe from your lies, damn lies, and statistics.
The level that some people will go to avoid admitting failure.... whatever you gotta tell yourself, man.
I’m sure you’re much more objective than the actual results.
I think you're misreading my tone.
Should have dropped an LOL in there. Your data helped to steer my impressions closer to reality.
That said, a discussion purely focused on statistics won’t be very enjoyable, nor will it be complete. There’s plenty of room for qualitative analysis.
Though I still don't understand....
why you chose to attack my position, rather than the original poster’s…. unless you are ALSO being influenced by the subjective?
The OP's position doesn't even attempt to be objective.
Saying we’re bad because we lose “winnable” games has no objectivity to it whatsoever. As a result, there’s no need to debate him. My issue is with making a subjective claim about an interpretation of objective numbers.
Was my statement any more definitive than his?
Paraphrasing, “find a way to lose winnable games down the stretch” versus “finish a lot better than we started”… that’s pretty much a wash.
Perhaps I should have simply left last year’s performance as a singular exception towards disproving the rule.
Refuting the original point is one thing. Making unjustifiable claims is another. He was just subjective without even trying. You tried to twist numbers into saying what you wanted them to.
which your statistics argue against, as well.
Regardless, if you break down that last 8 versus first 8, you’d see a lot more W’s in the 2nd (latter-half) column. Again, lots of subjectivity in there,
and I think the records do help to demonstrate this
I can trust my intuition on this, and remain entirely safe from your lies, damn lies, and statistics.
I would guess the objective data prove us better than static, a notion that my subjective impression agrees with.
Didn't arrdub start this by
challenging the assertion that we consistently collapse down the stretch under LH? Matt, do you think you refuted his challenge? why? you’ve talked yourself into a circle
And in terms of the previous few years, we’ve generally finished a lot better than we started.
Would you like to tell me again about what arrdub said?
You made me do it.
Year 1st Half 2nd Half
2002-03 2 wins 2 wins
2003-04 4 wins 2 wins
2004-05 3 wins 1 wins
2005-06 4 wins 5 wins
2006-07* 4 wins 3 wins
2007-08 2 wins 5 wins
2008-09 5 wins 5 wins
2009-10 4 wins 4 wins to date — I’ll guess we grab at least 1 more.
TOTAL 28 wins 27 wins
Since 05-06 19 wins 22 wins
Since 06-07 15 wins 17 wins
Since 07-08 11 wins 14 wins
*Toney Douglas injury occurs in 10th ACC game, precipitating a 1-4 record in his absence, not including the Clemson loss (we were already behind when he was injured, so I’m not going to count that).
So we do, in fact, have more wins over the last half the season OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS, as I originally qualified, regardless of how you define “last few years.” And the difference would undoubtedly be a lot more substantial if not for a crucial injury in one of those years.
I promise to make no more comments about this subject, and appreciate the time you’ve taken to discuss.
sample is too small
to effectively make a statistical argument
I watched the team for the first time this season.
I haven’t been keeping on the bball postings. Consider me an impartial, uninitiated observer.
What I saw when we were up 18-6 was a team with a horrid offense— no sense of purpose or plan.
This late in Ham’s tenure, that’s unexcusable.
But there’s no sense of urgency in our admin to fix bball, just like there wasn’t when Robinson was here. That attitude started with D’Alemberte, ever the social activist, who ordered Hart to find a minority coach, not necessarily the best coach. He did, and as long as a quota coach is in place, and football is left undisturbed, the administration is not going to get excited anytime soon about finding Jimbo’s bball counterpart.
If the admin doesn’t care about bball, and the last 15+ years shows it doesn’t, it’s just not worth my time.
My values: I love my wife, admire my dog, and believe very deeply that Bobby Bowden and Paula Dean were separated at birth.
But he is an incredible recruiter
If we lose ham, it’s about 100% that we would not get similar talent in the program.
I'd much rather do more with less.
Pat Kennedy had 4 NBA first rounders on his team. But his lack of coaching was often their undoing against less talented but better coached teams.
My values: I love my wife, admire my dog, and believe very deeply that Bobby Bowden and Paula Dean were separated at birth.
by PeachTreeNole on Mar 1, 2010 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
Well, that was a non sequitur.
What I meant was, FSU has long been blind to the necessity of good coaching. It seems to have had this philosophy that great talent can reach its potential with mediocre coaching. That assumption has made us look stupid for many years, and I envied less talented teams with smart coaching who took advantage of us. Ham is a relic of our foolishness.
My values: I love my wife, admire my dog, and believe very deeply that Bobby Bowden and Paula Dean were separated at birth.
by PeachTreeNole on Mar 1, 2010 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
The Tallahasssee Democrat recap on the game paints an even bleaker picture of the
Noles’ post-game psyche, describing a dead-silent locker room that can hear the muffled cheers from the visitors through the walls. Horror-movie stuff there, as it appears the players were fully aware of what they pissed away, only too late to do anything about it. One might be inclined to think, “good, let them stew in it for a while, so they come out angry on Wednesday,” but there is just as much chance this could put them in a funk they don’t come out of in 3 days.
I still think that there is a 60/40 chance the Noles make the Dance, but what stinks about this is: 1)had we won, it would not have been if, but when we punch our ticket, and 2)the realization that that 3-game winning streak was fools’ gold (on the offensive end, of course), there will be no true improvement from the offense this year; if FSU makes the dance, it will be just barely, and what they do in the Tourney will be largely based on the whims of who the Selection Committee ends up matching us up with. If its another Wisconsin, we are one-and-done.
All is not lost; the unconquerable will/And courage never to submit or yield.
I think our chances are more like 90/10...
we are still tied for third in the ACC. Worst case, we lose our last two regular season games and in the first round of the ACCT. Even then, we might have a small shot because the committee isn’t considering the last 10 games anymore supposedly. I doubt that becomes an issue though and we should beat Miami and one other team before selection Sunday. We have managed to squander our chances before though, so anything is possible (just ask Kavin Garnett).
Process > Results
GNO, the fools gold analogy fits perfectly....
We beat BC at home, a UVA team who started hot, then came down to earth (not to to mention, dawg tired), and a really bad UNC team.
I honestly dont understand why so many people are so frustrated. Last night was textbook FSU basketball…the equivalent of the football team beating the same three teams, then losing a close one to Clemson when our defense didnt show up.
I think my quote was something like “This doesnt change my opinion of this team” after the UNC game.
by Randall W. Spetman on Mar 1, 2010 11:38 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Which is why I issued a "Reality Check" after the UNC game
UNC was a terrible team and that didn’t change the way things have gone all season
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
Right...I think there were a couple of us that got blasted because we weren't jumping outta our chairs with excitement.
I think your comment was something like “Lets see how we perform against a formidable opponent” or somethingorother.
by Randall W. Spetman on Mar 1, 2010 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
I am just an arm-chair psychologist, but my guess is the frustration you speak of and the
Democrat recap mentions is probably positively correlated with the context of yesterday’s game. I.E., it wasn’t rationally-based, simply wishful thinking that a 3-game win streak composed of easy wins + a wide open path to a ACC bye and a Dance ticket = my heart tells me we were going to win that game.
The reality, unfortunately, is that you were right after the UNC game, and that no one should be surpised by this makes it even tougher to swallow.
I think TBFisherman is overly optimistic with his 90/10 opinion that we make the dance. I might be being a little pessimistic with my 60/40 opinion. The truth is, FSU still controls its destiny for a Dance ticket AND a first-round bye at the ACCT. Wake does not nearly have the defense Clemson has, and a worse offense. And we get them in Tally. Furthermore, the one team we lose the tiebreaker to (Clemson) has to go to Wake for their season finale, and Clemson has shown a complete inability to win on the road, besides beating cellar-dwellar NCState and our poorly coached squad. Even if Clemson wins out, by my calculations we’ll have the tiebreakers for the #4 seed in Greensboro.
Still, we are ALL Yellow Jackets fans tomrrow night
All is not lost; the unconquerable will/And courage never to submit or yield.
I'm not interested in going to the tourney just to be 1 and done,
getting emabarrassed by obviously less-talented-but-better-coached teams, and left wondering what we might have accomplished with this talent if we only had good coaching.
We went through way too much of that during the Pat Kennedy years.
My values: I love my wife, admire my dog, and believe very deeply that Bobby Bowden and Paula Dean were separated at birth.
by PeachTreeNole on Mar 1, 2010 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you, Fiesta. As I indicated, its clear we did not turn any corner offensively,
or even get any better. If we make the Dance, we are at the mercy of what sort of team we get matched up with.
So, as Dennis Green famously said, “we are who we thought they were.” Now what? We can’t fire Hamilton at this point in the season, and making the NCAA is a hell of a lot better than the alternative, which I don’t think I can deal with without major medicative help.
I hope the players forget this debacle. One good think about being such a strong defensive squad is that I THINK we are funk-proof. It may be tough for such a defense to lose 3 straight.
All is not lost; the unconquerable will/And courage never to submit or yield.
Awful press breaking...
why are we doing pirouettes and behind the back moves with the ball with two defenders coming to trap? i especially liked when singleton called for the ball and motioned for everyone to move away so he could try and beat the press by himself…only to turn the ball over..
I’m still not impressed with Alabi offensively at all. Guy consistently gets pushed off the blocks way to easily by defenders. This causes him to catch the ball too far away from the basket and out of his comfort zone. Then he tries to put the ball on the floor which he should NEVER be doing with the double teams he receives and gets the ball taken away….
alabi
i agree he’s overrated. in fact, i think we might have done better with more xavier gibson. he’s been on the court more through our offensive success than alabi because alabi has lately been in constant foul trouble.
You must only watch the 50% of the game where we have the ball.
Otherwise you wouldn’t have said that about Gibson/Alabi.
alabi
he’s only had 4 blocks in our last 3 games. he’s also had 7 turnovers and only scored 18 points total during that stretch. he can’t ever get open on offense, and when he does, he turns it over a lot of the time. he’s been getting in so much foul trouble early lately that he can’t even stay in the game or be as aggressive on defense. his touch around the basket against lesser opponents seems to be gone against ones that just push him around the whole game.
His impact is a lot bigger than # of blocks.
I agree he has struggled of late, but part of that (and our overall struggles as a team) are due to teams keying on him, offensively and defensively.
Take him out and we’re proverbially throwing the other teams in the brier patch. Our bread is buttered on defense, and Alabi is still elite in that capacity. Gibson struggles.
Ryan Reid does a better job of positioning himself on the blocks..
than Alabi does. He has to get stronger if he wants to compete at his position at the next level. Guys will have a field day with him if he doesnt…
Again, the potential is there, but its developing it. Still not sure why he is trying to put the ball on the court as much as he does. Almost every team we play doubles him when he gets an entry pass…he needs to recognize when to kick the ball back out and try to reestablish position.
Reid's also a senior, and has been playing basketball his entire life
so the comparison isn’t really a fair one. The comparison which is fair is Alabi against himself over the past 3 seasons, and each one he’s looked like a completely different player. If he comes back next year I expect the progression to continue.
Agree, for the most part,
But I think he’s had a bit of a sophomore slump this year.
Partial year 1 to year 2 = huge leap. This year… some growth, but a tad below my expectations for him.
i dont see how its not a fair one...
Alabi is already a better all around player than Reid and hasn’t been playing all of his life. Positioning yourself down low and not getting pushed around at this point in his career is completely fair to compare. If he was a freshman then i can understand you disagreeing…but Alabi is not…
He's a RS soph. that wasn't able to exercise his legs for much of his redshirt year.
I agree that what Alabi lacks is lower body mass and strength, which requires time to gain.
Does anyone actually think he has the ability to gain the required 40-50 pounds?
I don’t. Even if he does gain that much mass, does he have the intensity/aggression to get the most out of it? Again, I don’t. Will stronger legs make him hold the ball high instead of constantly dropping it low to get stolen? Will extra mass make his hands softer?
"Trick is right."
40-50 pounds is quite a stretch, don't you think?
10 pounds (and the added strength along with that) would make a big difference. I think 15-20 pounds of good weight would revolutionize his play.
He’s made huge strides in various aspects of his game since he’s been here. This year is his first playing as the primary option for his team’s offense, and that has come with new obstacles that he didn’t really see last year. There is plenty of room for growth and he will progress from where he is. The proverbial light did not come on for Alexander Johnson until the last half of his junior season. Solomon is almost certainly a more coach-able player than AJ ever was.
He added 15 pounds in the offseason this past year.
When you’re 7’+, 10-15 pounds really isn’t much.
"Trick is right."
Apparently not because he's still getting blown off the blocks...
I have no idea what the necessary added weight should be but he has to get “stronger”. He played soccer so i’m confused as to why his lower body isnt more built up. Being a soccer player myself, being strong on the ball is very important….just surprising.
And yes he’s a RS Soph which means he has had almost three years to improve his body? I would have expected more in his third year in the program. Maybe we can get Vic to work with him this offseason…
But remember, his first year he barely did anything due to his injury. This is really only his second full season playing in college.
www.Tomahawknation.com
Also, was it Alabi or Echefu who only started playing ball when they were like Jr's high school?
I can never remember.
by Randall W. Spetman on Mar 1, 2010 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
Alabi. Came to the states as a junior in high school, was his first time playing organized basketball.
So he has only really played four full seasons. Not enough time for a big man to really develop. Just goes to show the potential he has. Doesn’t necessarily mean it will fully develop though.
www.Tomahawknation.com
That's what I thought, but wasn't 100% sure.
I think he’ll develop, assuming he gets some proper mentoring at the next level. It may take a couple of years in the DLeague, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen eventually.
It’s really easy to get frustrated with him, but I try to constantly remind myself that of this fact.
by Randall W. Spetman on Mar 1, 2010 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty sure Echefu had a similar path.
Maybe he started a couple years younger than Alabi, but I’m pretty sure he grew up playing soccer and picked up basketball late as well.
"Trick is right."
Very similar path.
Echefu played soccer as well. Started playing basketball as a freshman. Didn’t come to the states until he was a sophomore in high school. So he had two years on Alabi before starting college.
www.Tomahawknation.com
why are we doing pirouettes and behind the back moves?
I assume you mean throwing the ball backwards and not dribbling behind the back. This is actually the proper thing to do to avoid the trap. some guys, say a Ty Lawson, can beat the trap off the dribble, but we, unfortunately, don’t have one of those guys. So we have to bait the trap and then go over the top which necessitates sometimes going backwards. Also, remember that CU is very, very good at the trap. It is basically the basis of Purnell’s coaching philosophy. A bit like LH’s is aggressive help-side M-to-M. so CU is going to turn over anybody they play. We didn’t lose this game b/c of the turnovers per se. A 20/18 differential is fine against them. We lost b/c we missed FTs
Unfortunately, CS sometimes thinks he’s Ty lawson
Set plays and end game situations
I’ve said this several times, but Ham really hurts this team by not having 2-3 set plays he can run out of time outs and at end half situations. Coach K preaches winning the last minute of each half. We close out the first half by not turning it over for easy basket, not giving up a three and at least drawing a foul on the offensive end, and I say this game was ours.
Now I know there are a lot of “what if” moments from the game (Singleton hitting two FT to move it to three posession game for one), but until Ham can drill these kids into having a couple of end game set plays, there are going to be a lot of NCAA & NIT bad moments for this squad
If we want to look at the bright side, Deckerhoff said the only time FSU won 4 straight ACC games was in year one in 1992-93 so this would have been a precedent setting game. Sorry, but I just need to take anything I can away from this puke fest
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Mar 1, 2010 10:33 AM EST reply actions
With the way we play offensively...
it was imperative that we take better advantage of their scoreless drought in the first half. i think thats where the game was lost and as TC said above it should have been game set and match…but it wasnt. important thing to remember with clemson is: if they don’t score..they can’t set up their full court press.
I really thought we played the inbounds and press well in the 1st half
Our inbounds had our two G crossing at the baseline, and Alabi would come up to half court as the safety valve.
Apparently, we still don’t know that the inbounder can run up and down the baseline to create additional space / better angles.
singleton is the most physically ready to be the guy at half court to break the press
but sometimes his decision making trumps his physical ability – like his behind the back dribble at half court that got his pocket picked..
Maybe it's been covered elsewhere
but what was wrong with Kitchen last night? He looked haggard as hell, and then when he got pulled 80 seconds into the 2nd half he looked like he was having a seizure.
fwiw
the newest si bracket has us as a 10 seed in the northeast
that seems right to me..
Holy discussion, Batman.
Just get home from work to see all of this amazing commentary. Great stuff everyone. Nice to see the interest in FSU hoops.
Now it begs the question, do we want Clemson to tank the rest of the year so that we can get a three seed in the ACC tournament? That scenario makes our wins over GTech and Wake look better (assuming we beat Wake). Or do we want Clemson to win out and end up in a tie with them, meaning that our two losses to them don’t look so bad?
At this point, a first round bye regardless of seed will be great.
www.Tomahawknation.com
TC, as I noted above, I think a combination of wishful thinking that our offense had improved
based on that 3-game winning streak, and the back-of-the-mind knowledge that beating Clemson would have essentially locked up a bid that has brought much consternation the the Tomahawk Nation. Throw in the 13-point lead in the first half and late 5-point lead, and you get the thread we see above. As you noted yesterday, this one hurt. I can deal with the NCState loss as delivered from the basketball gods to one Mr. Wood. This one and the home loss to Maryland hurt the most. Either of them goes our way, and I am starting the Priceline search for tickets to Providence, R.I.
In any event, I am foursquare behind rooting for Clemson to tank the rest of the year. We got to assume for this discussion that we are going to beat Wake. GaTech beating Clemson tomorrow and Wake beating Clemson at home might be what each of those schools need to make the Dance. Then, we’d have what, maybe 4 wins over Tourney teams (Wake, GaTech(2), Marquette?) KenPom has Clemson winning at Wake at a 50/50 proposition.
I’m rooting for GaTech big time tomorrow night. If nothing else, it leaves both remaining byes in play.
All is not lost; the unconquerable will/And courage never to submit or yield.
Really GNO?
To me, the NC State loss at home hurts more. We’re OBVIOUSLY more talented than that team is…throw in the homecourt advantage, and there is NO excuse (although your point about Saint Tres Pointes blessing Wood is well taken) to lose.
Clemson is a very good defensive team. We’re a little better, but they are top 10 in the country. Last night was textbook FSU basketball, complete with the usual suspects (horrible guard play, ineptitude against the press, scoring droughts, mental mistakes, miracle 3 point shots for the opponent, terrible inbounds play, etc).
Last night was typical FSU basketball. I don’t care how good our defense was in the 1st half, or how big our lead was. I am 100% honest when I say that I am not surprised that we lost that game.
Gotta root for the wreck tomorrow, and then Wake against Clemson. I’d really love one of those byes.
by Randall W. Spetman on Mar 1, 2010 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
you make some good points there. my brother, who is not a Noles fan and thus a
neutral observer, was also surprised and thought the NCState loss would have been worse for a Noles fan.
Your point about last night’s game not being a surprise at all makes all the sense in the world up in the head. I keep coming back to one point though: either of those games goes our way (and we know they were both close enough to have) and we are Dancing. Maybe ESPN doesn’t have us as a “lock,” but we are in.
All is not lost; the unconquerable will/And courage never to submit or yield.
and by either of those games, I mean the home losses to Clemson or Maryland,
of course. And we are in with a win in either of those games even WITH the loss to NCState.
All is not lost; the unconquerable will/And courage never to submit or yield.
Right. And being a fan, it's really hard not to get excited with a string of wins...
We WANT to believe that our offense finally clicked. We WANT to believe that we’ve “finally gelled as a team” (I got sick of seeing that crap…), we WANT to believe that we’re finally ready to make some noise in the NCAA tournament, and see that potential fufilled that we all know is there.
Turns out, all that happened is that we beat 3 teams that just aren’t very good. End of story. IMO
by Randall W. Spetman on Mar 1, 2010 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
I don't care what Clemson does.
If we win out, we get a bye. That’s all there is to it. That’s all that matters. Clemson’s RPI won’t jump into the top 25 or out of the top 50 the rest of the way, so they won’t affect us much either way, imo.
"Trick is right."
you are right about that, but having GaTech (we swept) beat Clemson(who swept us) is
better than the other way around. There also is the possibility that a 9-7 team gets the #4 seed. So, all things considered, I am going to be rooting for GaTech. Gives me something to do on a Tuesday night, anyway.
All is not lost; the unconquerable will/And courage never to submit or yield.
The net effect of GT beating Clemson would be negligible, if not zero, wouldn't it?
Since we played both twice, once at home and once on the road? I’m speaking in terms of our own RPI. I suppose GT could wind up with a top 25 RPI if they win out, which would be much better than our like 0-6 (assuming OSU moves up a few spots in B10T play, or 0-7 if we lose to Wake). With a GT win, and assuming they move into the top 25 and bump Clemson out, that’d make us 2-4 (or 2-5) vs RPI top 25 teams, which certainly looks a lot better, even if still not looking all that great.
My point was, if we win out, we beat Wake, and we hold the tiebreaker against them and VT. We pretty much assure ourselves of the 4th place spot. GT can’t tie us even if they win out (and we win out). Win out and we get a bye. Finishing top 4 in the ACC is much more important than the minimal effect Clemson winning out/tanking has on our resume.
I lied. I guess I do care what Clemson does. But we MUST win our 2 games or it means nothing. I’ll be rooting for GT as well. As for tonight, I think the FSU/UF ballgame is on tv. Just not sure I get CSS here in Ft. Myers.
"Trick is right."
Some Observations From Section Z Row E
What a frigging nightmare last night. A lot of bad basketball and a lot of bad luck. We played hellacious D for 80% of the first half…we should have had a 30-6 lead with 4 minutes left…nothing would fall for us.
I’m convinced that Kitchen either has asthma or smokes 3 packs a day…he is the ONLY player on a superbly conditioned team who looks seriously gassed 2 or 3 times per game.
Our performance against the press is inexcusable…you’ll remember that very early on it cost us the Florida game…we improved immediately in the following games…why the regression now…Ham, this is basketball 101.
The foulshooting is also inexcusable. I guarantee you that I could get any Tallahassee Junior High team and they would shoot 65%+ all of the time. Bobby Knight’s Indiana teams (and many others) began and ended each practice with 100 foul shots per man…this is not cold fusion,
Alabi is a total mess…terrible position 70% of the time and in the last few games he has regressed in insisting on putting the ball on the floor…he had gotten better earlier in the year but is back to the same bad habit…this combined with his incredible shrinking hands is killing him and us…his biggest value right now is the shot altering caused by his merely being there. As to his leaving for the NBA this year forget it…in fact, right now I’d wager that Gibson makes more money in the NBA when it’s all said and done.
Loucks is a Big 10 guard playing in the ACC…he needs to calm down and play “under control”.
Singleton and Snaer will both be huge factors in our success in the next couple of years…expected Chris to try and step up last night but he gave up a couple of silly fouls in a couple of quick posessions. Snaer is a freshman but damn his number will be in the rafters by the time he’s done here…be patient.
Someone still needs to tell me why Dulkys spent most of the first half on the bench…that was before Clemson was consistently pressing…injury? doghouse?
Lastly, Ryan “The Shoe Bomber” Reid struggled last night. He has had a great year thus far staying within himself playing good d and taking high percentage shots…I think at a certain point last night (4 minutes left) he felt like he had to try and step up because nobody else was. Anyway I hope everyone will give him a good show of appreciation Wednesday night…he has done journeyman work for the program and has been a bridge from the Swann/Wafer/Alex Johnson/Thornton/Douglas teams to an FSU team that is a year from greatness.
After all that, we really did suck last night…let’s hope we got it out of our system…and my apologies to the folks I cut off on Bronough last nite…damn was I pissed!
excellent observations, and I am down especially with your points on the foulshooting (cost
us the game, period), and the press breaking (also cost us the game. Why do we look so bad at it? I mean, some of the passes were almost Bad News Bears funny, in a dark sort of way).
I agree on Snaer 110%, and on Alabi, unfortunately. My brother told me a Todd McShay mock draft at ESPN has him going #8 THIS YEAR! A lottery pick! What the F is that? I know, potential and all that. If you’re an NBA G.M., are you taking a lottery pick chance on that THIS YEAR? May I remind you for this discussion that Hasheem Thabeet is in the D-League.
All is not lost; the unconquerable will/And courage never to submit or yield.
Thabeet>Alabi
IMO. At least Thabeet was a nightmare of a matchup, even though he couldn’t score to save his life.
by Randall W. Spetman on Mar 1, 2010 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
Sophomore campaigns.
Alabi: ….11.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.4 bpg, 1.9 topg, 56.1% fg, 80.5% ft
Thabeet: 10.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 4.5 bpg, 1.8 topg, 60.3% fg, 69.8% ft
Sadly, Alabi’s numbers are much worse his last 6 games.
Last 6: 8.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.0 bpg, 2.0 topg, 55.2 % fg, 70.8 % ft (fouls also up, minutes down)
If Thabeet couldn’t score to save his life, Alabi’s life is hanging in the balance?
"Trick is right."
Thanks Jersey Nole. Appreciate the input from someone who was at the game.
Totally agree with Snaer. He has shown a lot of progress, especially since getting his starting job.
Alabi has work to do and I think that is what is going to hold him back from going to the NBA this year. The talent base is there, but the fundamentals have not caught up yet.
www.Tomahawknation.com
geat point abt reid - he's been a nole throughout - and re: dulkys
i asked as well and it seems no one really understands
also i blame some of alabi’s problems on guard inconsistency
when you don’t get the ball in the right spot at the right time for 2/3 of the game, then you’re more likely to float out to the perimeter to increase your chances of getting the ball
then youre forced to dribble and do things you wouldnt normally do..
Not sure that I understand all the ramifications of the NBA 2011 lockout and salary cap etc. but I just can’t see Alabi as a lottery pick this year…don’t follow the NBA so maybe someone who does can chime in on why this could happen. I do know that his family is dead set on him getting a college degree…even if he could BUY a college if he ever got up to 270 lbs and grew some hands…lol
I'm not sure Alabi is ever a lottery pick.
He improved immensely from his freshman to redshirt freshman years. Didn’t improve anywhere this year other than the charity stripe. If he can put on 15-20 more pounds and work on some positioning/being more aggressive/assertive, he could certainly be a first rounder. I want to see it happen. I’m reluctant to say it will.
"Trick is right."
I think it's hard to make this assertion:
Didn’t improve anywhere this year other than the charity stripe.
Considering that, last year, Toney Douglas was without a doubt our #1 scoring option, whereas, this year, Alabi very well might be our #1. The defensive approach employed against us by other teams has changed dramatically… we have no idea how Alabi would have dealt the same level attention last year.
Despite his recent struggles, he still comes in with a 113.0 offensive rating on kenpom, better than the 102.9 he fielded last year.
Improve his assertiveness/aggression in the post? No.
Improve his hands? No.
Improve on keeping the ball high? No.
Improve on his offensive post moves? Yes. No. Doesn’t appear much better but I won’t say one way or the other.
Improve rebounding? No.
Improve blocks? No.
Improve steals? No.
Improve turnovers? Slightly.
I keep hearing that Alabi is the focus of opposing teams because he’s such an important player to our team. I think he gets so much attention when we’re on offense because it’s easy to rattle him, get him to travel, bump him out of good post position, strip the ball while he keeps it low or force him into a poor shot.
I think he can be a big factor offensively in the future. He’s just not near that level currently.
"Trick is right."
When you draw double or triple teams just about every time you get the ball,
You are, in fact, a big factor. (You’re important enough that at least one other person on the team is left entirely unguarded.) When you lead a team in scoring, you are a big factor offensively.
As to the easy target argument, I don’t think you focus your defense on the chance that you’ll generate 3-4 turnovers over the course of a game. That just doesn’t make sense. For the record, he’s 3rd on the team in minutes per game, but there are 3 other players who average more turnovers. If you look at turnover rate (kenpom), he’s got the 2nd lowest on the team.
Like I said, I can’t point to a set of figures to demonstrate specific improvement in facets of his offensive game, but the fact that he’s maintained a similar level of production, with what I’ve witnessed to be a lot more defensive attention, is enough for me to make the assumption that he’s undoubtedly made some improvements.
I’m also disappointed that he’s not an unstoppable force this year, based on last year’s returns, but I think you’re selling him a bit short.
I'd like to think the "force him into a poor shot"
plays a big role in what I was talking about.
"Trick is right."
my take on alibi
is that he’s hit a plateau in his development, which shouldn’t be unexpected. he’s just beat down physically. he’s never played this much before so that’s all new to him. And for a 7’1" guy just walking around burns an incredible amount of energy.
You add to that he’s mentally confused. Teams have caught on that you can continuously foul him w/ impunity. having not played for long, his reaction is to move away from the contact, which only makes it worse. Refs are unfortunately human and they’re gonna let a 6’7" guy push and hack a 7’1" guy until that 7’1" guy establishes himself as a star. The way to do that is always be leaning into him, whether establishing position or going up for your shot.
The 2 priorities for him in the off-season are weight and strength, as we all have noted, and being the aggressor in creating contact with his body. if he can do that, with MS and CS continuing to develop and DD becoming more consistent to limit the double teams and his FT shooting ability his success curve should start to rise again.
I might start giving XG more mins as he’s on an upward curve now w/ that little baseline move and seems more aggressor on the O boards than CS right now. Of course, you lose D but might be worth it.
correction
XG more of an aggressor on O boards than SA right now, although now that I think about it he might be more aggressive there than CS also
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