Preview and Game Thread: Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Florida State Seminoles, 7pm EST

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Despite a missed opportunity against Clemson, the Florida State Seminoles have the best defense in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy. Outstanding defense from the Seminoles is a given. The ability of the Seminoles to capitalize on that defense is the question that Seminoles fans have. Can the Seminoles keep pace with their opponents at a national level? Tonight, the Seminoles will be faced with the challenge of keeping pace with Al-Faroq Aminu and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. At the time of writing this (Tuesday evening), multiple teams have the potential to earn a bye in the ACC tournament. With a win, Florida State will stay in that conversation.


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vs

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Game Time: 7:00pm EST

Opponent's Site: Blogger So Dear

Television: ESPN2

Live Stats: scacchoops.com

Time to step up to the challenge. With their win over Georgia Tech, the Clemson Tigers moved to 9-6 in conference playing, leaving Florida State tied with Virginia Tech and Wake Forest going into Wednesday night's games. Virginia Tech takes on NC State and Florida State takes on...Wake Forest. Florida State needs to win this game in order to have the opportunity to have a bye in the first round of the ACC tournament. Wake Forest fans are hoping to have the same result. However, Florida State has the 'easier' path compared to Wake Forest. The Seminoles end the season with Miami. Wake Forest welcomes Clemson to Winston-Salem.

Entering tonight's game, the Demon Deacons are 18-8, with an 8-6 conference record. Their out of conference schedule included big wins over Gonzaga, Xavier and Richmond. Wake Forests only two out of season losses were to William and Mary, at home, and at Purdue. They currently rank 24th in the nation for defensive efficiency and 87th in the natoni for defensive efficiency. They are the number two team in the nation for eFG% and happen to be one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Deacs, however, enter the game with a three game losing streak. With the type of season that Wake was putting together, one would think it was to the likes of Maryland, Duke or Clemson.The losses have been at the hands of Virginia Tech, NC State and North Carolina. The last game was particularly troubling to the Deacs as it was at home. UNC played an outstanding game and easily earned the victory.

Unfortunately, I don't have a ton of time to put this preview together. Here are Wake's stats from Ken Pomeroy:


Record vs. D-1: 18-8
Luck: +0.036  National Rank=82  (+0.0 wins)

Raw Tempo: 71.5 poss/40 min  National Rank=29
Adj Tempo: 71.1 poss/40 min  National Rank=34

                      Offense               Defense
Raw Efficiency :  101.9 (156)           93.8 ( 38)
Adj Efficiency :  107.0 ( 87)           89.5 ( 24)

Effective FG%  :   47.9 (207)           42.5 (  2)
Turnover Pct.  :   20.8 (183)           19.7 (220)
Off. Rebound%  :   38.2 ( 23)           33.1 (199)
Free Throw Rate:   41.0 ( 94)           38.6 (197)

3-Point FG%    :   32.1 (255)           28.8 (  9)
2-Point FG%    :   47.8 (169)           42.1 ( 14)
Free Throw Pct.:   65.5 (271)           69.5 (209)
Block Pct.     :    8.3 (110)           13.5 ( 17)
Steal Pct.     :    9.4 (149)           10.0 (147)

3PA/FGA        :   23.1 (340)           31.9 (151)
A/FGM          :   45.6 (323)           47.8 ( 43)

 

In their last three games, Wake Forest has really struggled as a result of their poor shooting percentage. This plays directly into the hands of Florida State. Clearly, the Noles will need to limit the production of Al-Farouq Aminu (AFA). He is having an outstanding season and this will be an outstanding matchup with Chris Singleton. Ishmael Smith is having a wonderful season for the Deacons, better than I had expected. Chas McFarland is going to give Alabi a run for his money. His is a big, physical player who likes to intimidate his competition. He will try and get Alabi in to early foul trouble.

Fortunately, Wake Forest does not force may turnovers, nor do they shoot well from beyond the arc. They prefer to play an up-tempo style of basketball. All of these elements play into the hands of the Seminoles. However, Florida State is coming off one of their worst shooting performances of the year.

This could be another game in which the first team to 50 wins. Again, apologies for the short preview.

Four Factors:

 

 

Rank and Records WAKE
FSU
RPI #30
#41
Strength of Schedule #34
#54
Overall 18-8
20-8
Conference 8-6
8-6
Home 12-2
12-3
Away 5-6
5-5
Top 25 3-3
2-2
RPI Top 50 5-4
2-3

 



PPG FG% FT% 3P% RPG ORPG DRPG APG TPG SPG BPG FPG
Wake-forest WAKE 74.5 44.2 65.5 32.1 42.7 14.8 27.8 12.2 15.1 7.3 5.7 20.3
Florida-state FSU 70.0 45.9 64.7 33.7 38.6 12.8 25.8 14.1 16.7 8.4 6.5 17.9
Wake-forest WAKE Opponents 68.7 37.9 69.5 28.8 37.8 14.2 23.5 11.1 14.3 6.9 3.9 21.2
Florida-state FSU Opponents 60.7 36.9 66.1 32.9 33.2 12.8 20.4 9.9 16.2 8.0 2.3 18.9

 



POS PPG PPP FLR% Eff eFG% TS% FTR 2P% FTP% 3P% OR% DR% A% A/T T% S% B%
WAKE 1893.0 72.8 1.02 54.9 102.3 47.9 51.3 41.0 60.0 21.9 18.1 38.6 66.2 45.6 0.81 20.7 10.0 9.2
FSU 1926.0 68.8 1.02 53.0 101.7 51.2 53.8 39.1 55.2 19.8 25.0 38.5 66.8 56.2 0.85 24.3 12.1 11.6
WAKE Opponents 1893.0 72.8 0.94 49.5 94.3 42.5 47.2 38.6 51.3 24.0 24.7 33.8 61.4 47.8 0.77 19.7 9.5 6.4
FSU Opponents 1926.0 68.8 0.88 46.4 88.3 42.9 46.5 33.0 46.7 20.3 33.0 33.2 61.5 47.3 0.61 23.5 11.7 4.2

 

All tables from Statsheet.com

Prediction: Florida State 65 Wake Forest 62

Game Time: 7pm EST

Opponent's Site: Blogger So Dear

Television: ESPN2

Live Stats: scacchoops.com

Random Fact From Seminoles.com

FLORIDA STATE'S DEFENSE IN THE LAST FOUR GAMES
Florida State, who is generally recognized as having the nation's most tenacious defense, has held its last four opponents to an average of 54.3 points per game and a cumulative shooting percentage of .365. The Seminoles have allowed 53 or fewer points in three of their last four games including an average of 26.5 points in the first halves of the last four games. The Seminoles have also forced and average of 16 turnovers. Florida State's dynamic Defensive Duo of Solomon Alabi (11 blocked shots and two steals) and Chris Singleton (five blocked shots and 11 steals) have combined for 16 blocked shots and 13 steals in the four games.

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