#5 Ranked FSU Seminoles Baseball Beats Down the SEC
The Florida State Seminoles improved to 10-0 this season by beating the rival Florida Gators last Tuesday and steamrolled through the Georgia Bulldogs for a weekend sweep. It was a good week for the ‘Noles offense scoring 48 runs on 51 hits and 32 walks to 25 strikeouts. With those wins the Seminoles swapped places with the Gators in the most recent Baseball America rankings while the rest of the Top 10 remained the same.
Just for fun let's take a look and see how the FSU offense fairs against the rest of the Top 10.
As you can see FSU is tearing the cover off the ball and is leading or near the top in every category. These numbers are a little inflated due to the lesser competition we have played year to date in comparison to other top programs. Now don't get me wrong, anytime we beat UF at anything I am happy and sweeping #25 ranked UGA should be impressive but inside we will explain why you should hold off right now on booking your plane ticket to Omaha.
It has been discussed in previous baseball threads that we should not put too much importance into baseball rankings and this became abundantly clear after watching this week's games. The Florida Gators started the season ranked 7th and moved to as high as 5th primarily due to the program prestige and their #1 recruiting class, something that FSU has benefited from in years past. UF has a young and inexperienced team that to FSU's credit took full advantage of. The offense beat down UF's #4 sophomore starter before he could record an out giving #2/3 Geoff Parker a 7-0 lead before facing the following lineup.
Those 9 kids accounted for just 40.5% of the 2009 total at bats and with that lack of experience Parker was pretty much in a position where he could not fail. From the very first at bat UF was chasing pitches out of the zone in an effort to get back into the game and continued to show poor plate discipline the entire night. Young teams struggle with plate discipline as shown in the above stats, Florida's BB:K ratio ranks last among Top 10 teams and is almost 4 times less than the ‘Noles. Parker labored through the entire game lasting only 5 1/3 innings and if it wasn't for the excellent pitching of Brian Busch his night would have been much worse. UF will be a better team by the end of the year but last Tuesday night they were completely outmatched by FSU.
The #25 Ranked Georgia Bulldogs came into Tallahassee this weekend a completely different team than last year's regionals.
"Georgia's starting lineup consists of three freshmen and six sophomores, and the infield has yet to feature all four projected starters. Currently, the Bulldogs are without freshmen starting shortstop Kyle Farmer (out 3-6 weeks due to a broken hamate bone in left wrist) and sophomore second baseman Levi Hyams (sore back). Farmer, who is the team's second leading hitter at .458, has missed the past three games while Hyams has yet to see action this season. Since Farmer's injury, third baseman Colby May has moved to shortstop while redshirt freshman Kevin Ruiz and sophomore catcher Christian Glisson have split time at third base. Glisson had never played third base in his career while Ruiz saw some time there in the fall. Meanwhile at second base, freshman Todd Hankins has started all nine games this year. Ruiz along with freshman Robert Shipman filled in the first five games at first base while sophomore Chase Davidson was out with an elbow injury. Davidson has returned to first base the past three games. Hyams might see action in the field during the FSU series and could be back full-time by next week."
The Bulldog offense was in similar shape to that of the Gators. The lineups that UGA put out this past weekend consisted of only 5 players that saw any at bats last season which only accounted for roughly 30% of the team's total at bats. Sean Gilmartin and John Gast took complete advantage of that and had little trouble in their outings. The only offense Georgia could muster was off of underachieving Geoff Parker who we will discuss a little later. 38 runs against a SEC opponent who has made Regionals 3 of the last 6 years it is a definite accomplishment but in all honesty the Georgia pitching staff is nothing special and is only middle of the pack when it compares with other SEC schools. I do credit the Seminole offense for lighting up MLB prospect Justin Grimm but outside of him the pitching staff has no one worth noting. Their #2 and #3 starters had only 2 combined starts in 2009 and were completely outmatched against one of the best hitting teams in the nation.
The last and most important reason why it is too early to jump on the "Rosenblatt Bound Bandwagon" is the lack of a viable Sunday starter. Gilmartin and Gast have been lights out this far and I do think they will continue to have success throughout the rest of the season but Florida State CANNOT expect to be a title contender without a #3 starter who can go out and consistently pitch 5 serviceable innings. Junior Geoff Parker has been a complete disappointment in his 3 starts and has shown no signs of improving.
Parker was initially thought to be the Saturday starter with Gast going on Sunday, but his inability to throw effectively has forced Gast into the Saturday role and FSU in search for someone who can throw competitively on Sunday without burning through 5 bullpen arms. If Parker isn't that someone who is? Until last night against at Jacksonville Mike McGee had inexplicably not throw a single meaningful inning which raised concern on how he would look in his first start. To everyone's surprise he went out and threw 6 innings on no-hit ball striking out 8 and walking 4. This was very good to see and hopefully he can continue to pitch with similar results as 2009 which with the way Parker is pitching could move him to the Sunday spot.
Lucky for the ‘Noles there are about 45 games left in the season where they have the opportunity to solve their #3 starter problem. With their offense and the continued excellence of Gilmartin and Gast FSU should have no problem winning the majority of the series that they play. All in all FSU is off to a great start, even better than I expected but they will truly be tested this upcoming weekend against the University of Virginia who is ranked #1 in the country and rightfully so in my opinion. Come back Thursday for a FSU-UVA preview.
Other FSU Baseball Notes:
In back to back weeks a FSU player has taken ACC Player of the Week with this weeks honors going to Senior shortstop Stephen Cardullo. During a stretch in the UGA series he reached base in 9 consecutive plate appearances.
Florida State beat Jacksonville 2-0 Monday night and carried a combined no-hitter into the bottom of the 9th inning. I don't really believe in jinxes but as soon as the radio announcer mentioned the word "no hitter" the lead off batter promptly single up the middle.
‘Noles Freshman Robert Benincasa gets his 2nd start of the season in a Wednesday make up game against the University of North Florida.
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I am having a hard time not being really happy with how our pitching staff is shaping up, in spite of Parker's struggles.
Gilmartin and Gast have been phenomenal so far (knock on an aluminum bat); McGee was just filthy at times last night; Benincasa was alright for a freshman making his first career start, though it’s only been one start and we’ll see what happens Wednesday night. Plus, all of these blowouts have let us get some of the new guys a lot more work than they usually do on a Mike Martin/Jamey Shouppe team.
We could potentially have 6 guys who could throw 5 innings for us: Gilmartin, Gast, McGee, Busch, Benincasa, and Parker. If we get some development out of Buckley, Bennett, Sitz, and one other guy for short relief I’ll be extremely happy.
I agree, outside of Parker things could not have gone much better
Don’t forget Everett, he has been nothing short of awesome
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
Anyone expect Durden, Scantling or Madden to do anything?
I hope they could at least get a situational out or two.
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
I’m interested to see what happens with Parker if he continues to struggle like he has.
Who becomes the Sunday starter? I imagine it is probably McGee, however Busch could also start. I think we probably like Busch in the extended relief/first out of the pen role.
365 days, until I change my ways.
If Parker gets pulled, I'd much rather go with McGee.
Busch is our most valuable long reliever.
/definitive
I'd like to see Benincasa, too.
Assuming he continues to perform well. If he and McGee hit a rough patch and Parker stays hot and cold, what do you do then? Leave it as Parker? Do McGee anyways? Try Busch?
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
Because he's a lefty?
Because he’s more consistent than Parker, and in turn, more reliable as a long reliever?
I tend to agree with you, but wonder your reasoning.
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
Lefty/Right doesn't really matter to me
If you use Busch as a starter you don’t have the option to bring him in on Fri/Sat or during the week
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
He had arm issues going into Spring
He’s only a soph so get I think it would server him best to strengthen and gain expereince out of the pen so he could possibily moving into a starting role the next 2 years
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
I'm not arguing for or against him starting/being in the pen.
Just curious.
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
Plagued by arm troubles
And his mechanics have not gotten any better. Some things are going to have to change for him to be a 90 inning starter.
>>---l>
He went 90.2 last year.
Gilmartin, for reference, went 98. Gilmartin had 2 more starts. Busch had one more appearance.
I don’t disagree with him being in the pen. Just wondered if he broke down last year. I couldn’t remember. I had to look those numbers up just now.
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
For those not verbose in baseball statistics
xERA (expected ERA) is similar to FIP (fielding independent pitching) which was explained in the preview. Expected ERA is a term coined by two Sabermetric researchers who developed the following mathematical formula ((.575 * H/9 ) + (.94 * HR/9 ) + (.28 * BB/9 ) – (.01 * K/9 ) – Normalizing Factor). The normalizing factor is based on the league (don’t have a normalizing factor for ACC, but it is averaged between .270-.285)
BABIP is ‘Batting average on balls in play’ it is used to analyze future trends in performance. If a pitcher has a remarkably high or low BABIP (outside his normal BABIP, because pitchers have some control over it), they are typically going to regress back to their average BABIP and their ERA will move with it.
365 days, until I change my ways.
BABIP is great stat to refer to
Which one is the metric that measures ERA independent of park?
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Mar 9, 2010 9:23 AM EST up reply actions
How come I've never heard of the hamate bone until this year
and it just keeps showing up.
freshmen starting shortstop Kyle Farmer (out 3-6 weeks due to a broken hamate bone in left wrist
Is there a "clutch" factor with coaching?
What makes it so different from regionals and super regionals etc.?
The competition level, or does MM just tighten up when it comes to the big games?
Do you think it is an overall team thing
or is he generally better handling a pitching staff rather than an offense? ( I tend to think he is overly conservative at the plate, stop insisting they always take a pitch.)
I have the same criticism of his plate management...
but he is much worse at handling a pitching staff.
really now?
That is disheartening. What do you think his biggest weakness is with pitching?
Hah... where should I begin...
Failure to create depth by using more than a few select pitchers throughout the season (we were destroyed last year once you got past our first 2 guys out of the bullpen).
Failure to recognize when to go to the bullpen.
Drastic over-reliance on lefty/lefty and righty/righty matchups.
echo
Now that I think about it (remembering all the games I went to years ago), he did have a propensity to let his starters try to work out of the jam to their detriment quite a bit. hmmm, interesting. Well, from what Ive read around here, his son is pretty damn good. Any thoughts on when he takes over?
I have heard he is a good coach
However, the situation still bothers me. I would like to see a competitive process.
365 days, until I change my ways.
I like Junior
But I do not wan’t his first head coaching experience to be at FSU
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
So some seasoning somewhere else
How much longer is poppas K for?
It would only benefit him
As for #11, I can’t even venture to guess
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
R/L as a pitching component can be extremely helpful
I doubt Martin does the research to exploit guys who have heavy R/L splits and plays it by the numbers however.
He has a “feel” for the game.
365 days, until I change my ways.
evaluating talent
we always seem to have guys that are “trying to locate” their fastball and don’t really have an out pitch. IMO that is MMs biggest “Omaha” problem. The teams that win it all always have 2 starters with wicked stuff. Closer to home I have an impression of UM and UNC pitchers through the years that were nasty. Our guys are good enough that we win alot of games but against quality competition in tournaments we tend to get exposed as good, but not great, college pitchers. Now I suppose one could also make the argument that a good pitching coach would help these guys develop that out pitch.
And to be honest
it seems we’ve been one or two good arms short of having the depth on the pitching staff that you need in Omaha. Factor in the rest of the small things and it’s hard to find enough luck to win it all.
First thing off the top of my head
I know you arent a fan of bunting in college.
Not just college, but especially college because of the high run environment
Bunting for a hit= good
Bunting for an out= bad
365 days, until I change my ways.
Yeah, its a different game with metal bats
but since I grew up watching the majors more than college, I have this nagging belief in advancing the runner. Im an N.L. guy.
I am an N.L. guy too
However, it is ALMOST never a good idea to give up an out.
Outs are much more important than the one base you gain from bunting.
365 days, until I change my ways.
Then let me put it in a different context:
In football you are given 4 downs, but more traditionally it is 3 downs then a punt.
Would you willfully throw an incomplete pass on 1st down (not stopping the clock or anything, just throwing an incomplete pass) because you want to run a fake play off the same action later in the series? Knowing that the fake might or might not work even though you wasted first down?
You have used up a down, and only marginally increased your chances for success.
I dont know if I agree with that hypothetical
A bunt isnt an incomplete pass. I cant really think of a football comparison, maybe in basketball the continual use of a jab step (even when the defender is setting up to stop it) to later set up a crossover that will hopefully work.
Under some situations (not a great hitter at the plate [high K%], no outs, we need a single run, late in the game, bigtime speed at the plate) I think the bunting can be a prudent option. Again, this is more based on pro ball, since the metal bat usually makes it hard to properly place a bunt anyway.
If he has a high K% he is probably not the guy I want bunting
High K% guys tend to me able to be able to put the ball in play
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
Are those guys you want laying down bunts?
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=0
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
seeing the list of high k%
nevermind.
For context though, I am a Marlin fan, and I hate Dan Uggla, I would almost always prefer that he bunt since I feel he strikes out every time someone is on base. He has made me this way.
Dan Uggla
I hate watching him. I wish that he would only ever bunt. I think he is disjointed at whatever spot in the offense he takes up. Most overrated player I have ever seen.
He's been league average or better for the last 4 years
2 of those years he was much much better than league average.
There were 5 better hitting 2B in baseball last year.
I am so befuddled.
365 days, until I change my ways.
I love homeruns, dont get me wrong
I just feel its either a homerun or a strike out. And much more often than not, its a strike out.
Also, I believe the vast majority of his homeruns were with noone on base. Whenever we needed a hit to extend a rally or something like that, he is the turd in the punchbowl. I would much rather sacrifice the homeruns for someone who is more consistent (that is not even including his ATROCIOUS defense).
A homerun or a strikeout is better than a ground out
Something he doesn’t do often comparitively speaking
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
Im aware of the DP possibility with a ground out, but it just maddening to see a guy on 1st and 2nd with an out, and know they are going to
be sitting there with 2 outs in just a second.
Are you going to tell me
that you always watch with the same eye? You dont ever have a fan switch that makes you view a player here and there a bit differently?
Not just you, but everyone else as well.
Like I really don't like Uggla either
something seems off about him. But then I take a step back an look at what he’s done and say “ok, he’s one of the better hiting 2B in the game.”
as long as nobody says they like Emilio Bonifacio I will remain sane
365 days, until I change my ways.
Reds and Rays are my two teams.
Maddon is crazy with his 5 relievers in an inning stuff and Baker, well, I don’t really like him. Just leave it at that.
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
I might disagree with some here but I have no issues playing the matchups
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
I don't disagree with it if the numbers say to do it.
But those 7th or 8th innings are a chore to watch.
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
I think it's fun to have favorite players based on things that don't necessarily matter
like hustle and what you see them do and how it feels like they perform well in certain situations, but that doesn’t mean they should be starting over more qualified players because of this.
Hermida,
shakes head I wanted him to work out so badly. Such potential.
I am glad the Sox got him
He never really impressed me … but I am sure that Epstein has some sort of formula that says he was severely undervalued.
I was shocked the Rays went after Branyan since his OBP is so low … but it’s a minor league contract and he provides depth at a minimal cost for a former 2x all star … assuming his injuries are behind him
by Cigar City Nole on Mar 9, 2010 10:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm sorry but this is just not a rational way to evaluate a player.
365 days, until I change my ways.
I hear you, and thats fine
I analyze plenty of players on more methodical, and stat based ways. We all have our quirks, and Uggla is a guy, that to me, to have it fit, is a statistical anomaly. His numbers make him look more valuable than he really is. Again, its my opinion.
Last night is a perfect example of why you dont bunt
Florida State 8th – PEROZO, E. to rf. McGee, M. doubled to right field (0-2). KAMINSKI, C. to p for LOOSEN, M.. Holt, T. walked (3-1). Ramsey, J. grounded out to c, SAC, bunt (0-0); Holt, T. advanced to second; McGee, M. advanced to third. Cardullo, S. intentionally walked (3-0). Tapley, S. grounded into double play ss to 2b to 1b (0-1); Cardullo, S. out on the play. 0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors, 2 LOB.
Bunting left 1B open and took the bat out of the hand of your hottest hitter, setting up a double play
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
I am not a fan of taking the bat out of anybody's hand
Top of the 9th in the same situation:
Florida State 9th – HAWKINS, J. to ss. Johnson, S. walked (3-2). Gonzalez, J. singled through the right side (0-0); Johnson, S. advanced to second. Gilmartin,S. struck out looking (1-2). Brunelle, P. singled to pitcher, RBI (1-0); Gonzalez, J. advanced to third; Johnson, S. scored. McGee, M. struck out swinging (2-2). Holt, T. flied out to cf (0-0). 1 run, 2 hits, 0 errors, 2 LOB.
Brunelle was 0-3 with 3 Ks going into that at bat
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
Maybe blowing a timeout early to see what the defense is thinking?
That is the closest football analogy I can think of
by Cigar City Nole on Mar 9, 2010 9:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
If you could trade 1st down
for an automatic 2 or 3 yards and start 2nd down and 7/8 every time. Give up the down/out to get a few extra yards/base in hopes the next play/batter will get you the first down/run.
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
I think coaching in post-season is different than coaching in season.
Baseball seasons are long and you are going to have ups and downs. You know you are going to lose some games. Even the best teams do. You just have to win more than lose and try to not let the lows get too low. MM is very good at this. He has an even keel. In the post-season, however, you need to approach the game differently. You cannot afford to let things ride. You cannot miss opportunities. You cannot accept loses. MM does not seem to be able to consistently get his team to elevate their game when the other team is also going to bring their best.
MM also never adjusted to the changes in the regional and CWS formats. When he started, they were both long, double elimination tournaments. This favored deep teams, because everybody was going to need their third starter and possibly fourth starter and good bullpens. Now, you have a smaller regional, a short super regional, two smaller double elimination brackets at the CWS and a best 2 out of 3 championship series. For this type of format, you better have a superstar pitcher who can take down everyone elses’ best pitcher in a pitcher’s duel. Getting that first win in each of these formats makes a big, big difference.
I have a question, I just looked up the recruiting rankings for last year, and was really suprised that we finished outside of the top25, and even ucf finished ahead of us? reason for concern or not important
Lost
Lee, Hibbs, Gennett and Sampson, right? Thought Lee went juco. Not sure what Hibbs did (was coming from juco. Gennett and Sampson went pretty high in the draft, I believe.
http://floridastate.scout.com/2/813821.html
Yes, I do believe they were expected.
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
Right.
But was wondering if you could help out on the other 2.
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
But do you know what happened to him between the time he signed and the time classes started up?
I’m talking about his second loi. I know he had some drug issues several years back. Did he get into trouble again?
What are your thoughts on Kreft?
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
I thought we were in the Top 25
There is a lot of turnover in baseball so I am not too concerned
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
We should be #1. Glad to see we are #2 in a few polls.
Our resume speaks for itself so far.
GO NOLES!!! SCALP EM!
Care to elaborate
We beat up on poor, inexperienced and injured teams. Not saying we shouldn’t be in the discussion but every team higher than us has a legit argument.
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
by RaysnNoles on Mar 9, 2010 5:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
11 is the greatest college baseball coach ever...
who will NEVER win a national title.
That fact just takes all the excitement out of the season for me.
I honestly feel we have more of a shot of winning a basketball national title than a baseball one. Not saying those chances are large, but I think it is almost reality in basketball. In baseball….IMPOSSIBLE. 11 doesn’t build his teams for national titles AND he is a a choker in the post season.
I disagree, baseball is the one sport where game management matters the least
Teams playing well at the right time can win National Championships
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
No, we have highertalent levels inabseball and game management is less important.
365 days, until I change my ways.
UGA loses to Kennesaw State 11-1
"We’re not a good baseball team right now," said Georgia coach David Perno. "We’re not showing a lot of fight and this has been the worst week in my tenure. We have to figure something out and identify some roles. We’ll continue to shuffle some things, and we need to get some confidence at the plate and on the mound. We’re struggling, and it’s very contagious. I’m very disappointed in the team right now. The wins and losses at this point in the season are not a concern but the lack of competitive energy and pride does concern me. I thought this team would show more grit, we’ll see how they respond."
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
Just setting up a worst to first scenario.
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."

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