The Line: Christian Ponder 11th in Initial 2010 Heisman Trophy Odds
by Bud Elliott on May 29, 2010 7:10 PM EDT
in FSU Football
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PrintThe 2010 Heisman Trophy Odds are out and the boys in Vegas have pegged Christian Ponder with the 11th-best odds (tied with 4 other players).
Mark Ingram 350
Terrelle Pryor 500
Ryan Mallett 1000
Case Keenum 1200
Dion Lewis 1200
Jacory Harris 1200
John Clay 1200
Noel Devine 1200
Jake Locker 1200
Evan Royster 1200
Christian Ponder 1500
Andrew Luck 1500
DeMarco Murray 1500
Kellen Moore 1500
To me, Ingram (defending champion), Pryor (Nat'l Champ contender), Mallett (ridiculous numbers and draft stock), Keenum (video game numbers), Lewis (potentially on a 10-win team), Clay (five thousand rushing attempts), and Devine (highlight tape) all make sense.
Harris led the country in interceptions last season (17). That would be quite the jump for the disappointing Junior from Miami. Locker won't get an invite because he plays for a Washington Huskies team that'll lose a minimum of 4 games and because his numbers and supporting cast are not very good. Royster won't get an invite because he isn't a special back, doesn't put up great numbers, and plays on a Penn State team that is projected to finish 5th in the Big 10. And it's difficult for a running back to win.
Ponder sound probably be in the group of seven tied for 4th. I don't understand how Kellen Moore is tied for 11th. He'll put up video-game numbers once again against a tissue paper schedule and the Broncos will once again be in the BCS by virtue of playing that schedule. I'd expect Moore's odds to quickly change as bettors quickly correct that error.
Inside, you'll find the remaining 12 at longer odds
Damon Berry 1800
Matt Barkley 1800
Jacquizz Rodgers 2000
Garrett Gilbert 2500
LaMichael James 3000
Tate Forcier 3000
Landry Jones 4000
Blaine Gabbert 5000
Jerrod Johnson 5000
Jordan Todman 5000
Josh Nesbitt 5000
Robert Griffin 6000
I think Landry Jones is a good shot here at roughly 40/1. Oklahoma will probably go 10-2 or better and Jones could throw for 30 touchdowns and a ridiculous amount of yards as well.
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Sam Bradford was also a sophomore when he won it.
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by Jonathan Loesche on May 29, 2010 7:28 PM EDT reply actions
Ooh good call.
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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As for Ponder
If he doesn’t put up video game numbers the minimum that’ll need to happen to get him to New York is
2-1 in the three marquee games this year (OU,UF,UM)
Atlantic Division Title
3,000 yards and 25 TDs
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by Jonathan Loesche on May 29, 2010 7:31 PM EDT reply actions
I think he would have to win the ACC.
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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I thought about putting that, but if FSU loses despite Ponder putting up an amazing game, it probably wouldn’t hurt him.
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by Jonathan Loesche on May 29, 2010 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
What if he loses all 3 big ones
then gets redemption over Miami in the ACCCG
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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If he loses all three, then he’s out, period. Those three games are going to be the crux of his Heisman campaign.
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by Jonathan Loesche on May 29, 2010 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he'll lose all 3. But a win over Miami in the champ game means more than one in October.
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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I have my two wagers in.
Kellen Moore at 16/1 and Landry Jones at 41/1
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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I'm feeling you with Kellen Moore.
This system is jacked up…and I will make it work to my advantage.
I also think Landry Jones is going to be much better this year. I liken him to Ponder, a young guy getting PT early.
"I'm just a big, hairy, American winning machine"
by Randall W. Spetman on May 29, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll take Andrew Luck.
If he can validate everything scouts are saying, he should have a field day vs every Pac-10 defense besides Oregon and USC.
My close second is Terrell Pryor. I think this is going to be a “bleh” year much like last year in terms of individual achievements. In those years, the Heisman always defaults to the best player on a national title contender, and that’ll be Pryor.
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by Jonathan Loesche on May 29, 2010 7:40 PM EDT reply actions
Pac 10 has some very good defenses
USC, Zona, Cal, UCLA all typically stout in the past few years. Plus Oregon returns a ton.
Agree with Pryor.
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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Not moore?
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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Didnt see Moore and thats good odds for him (he's probably a top 5 favorite), but they'll probably need to go undefeated again
No?
Keenum’s numbers will be ridiculous.
I couldnt bet on a repeat w/ Ingram.
Pryor doesn’t have enough return.
So Lewis, Keenum, and Luck with Moore. Actually, I would take Keenum out and replace with Moore.
and Landry just because Oklahoma could win 11 games, and the great return.
365 days, until I change my ways.
A 1-loss Moore is in New York IMO
I hit Moore at +1500 and Landry at +4000
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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IMO the outcome of the VT game doesn't matter.
All he has to do is have a good game. They’ll run the table anyways, after that.
"I'm just a big, hairy, American winning machine"
by Randall W. Spetman on May 29, 2010 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the clarification.
"I'm just a big, hairy, American winning machine"
by Randall W. Spetman on May 29, 2010 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
This year’s Heisman field is awful.
I could make a case as to why I think 8-9 guys have a really legit case to win.
I wouldn’t touch Ingram, Pryor, or Mallett for that reason.
365 days, until I change my ways.
I disagree with the assertion of proclaiming this year's field as "awful"
before the first game has been played.
Players, including off the radar players, could have amazing years.
WAR PAINT OF TN
Harris heisman "campaign" last year
sky-rocketed after they played us. That was before anybody (at least those not from TN) realized how awful our defense was. 1200 is really generous for him.
I'm sick of the Harris hype
I don’t get it at all, he seems completely average to me.
Me too, man.
He throws a good deep ball, which entices people, but the guy throws way too many interceptions to be considered elite. He’ll have to ixnay that sheeyat to have any chance this year IMO
"I'm just a big, hairy, American winning machine"
by Randall W. Spetman on May 29, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree on the deep ball.
He throws a deep ball like Weatherford did.
Luck and Ponder throw a good deep ball. Locker throws a good deep ball.
Pretty much everyone can chuck it 35+ yards with a ton of air under it (I mean most males 18-30)
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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by Bud Elliott on May 29, 2010 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Gotta go the other way...I think the UNC game is sticking out in your mind in regard to Harris.
Ponder had some rather ugly deep balls this year (MIami – picked, and in the BYU game, there were several bad deep balls that Fortson and Co. bailed him out on). I remember the bomb to Rod @ UNC and and deep ball called back against USF. Harris shredded FSU on a couple of beautiful tosses (and we’re not talking balls with a “ton of air under it”)
Neither QB, IMO looked good against Clemson.
I just don’t see it….I think you’ve got 2 types of QB in that list. Ponder and Harris are more comparable than Ponder and Malllet/Luck/Locker. Those guys just have that cannon of an arm, but all throw a good deep ball (well, I haven’t seen Locker’s, but I’ve watched plenty of Luck and Mallet)
Ponder and Harris don’t have that…they rely more on timing and touch, IMO. As good as CP7 is, his deep balls, IMO, have just as much air under them as Harris’ do.
"I'm just a big, hairy, American winning machine"
by Randall W. Spetman on May 30, 2010 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't remember the beautiful balls he threw.
Harris has one of the weakest arms in the ACC. It’s worse than Riley Skinner’s. Ponder’s is considerably better IMO.
Here’s Miami’s highlights against us http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-FWj0WNCIo
Ball to Benjamin is a lob and benjamin beats his man by 5 yards.
This ball should have been a TD, but he doesn’t throw it far enough and his wideout has to wait and instead gets drilled by Moody. He puts it out there farther and that guy is gone.
When he really has time to really step into it with a lot of momentum he can get it there, but you rarely have time to do that against a quality BCS conference Defense.
I saw Ponder make some monster throws. The ball he threw to Goodman over the middle against Miami was great.
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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Harris can't throw this ball
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjbY5N1kvWk#t=3m36s
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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sorry, here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjbY5N1kvWk#t=3m39s
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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You got a time on the video corresponding to the particular throw?
"I'm just a big, hairy, American winning machine"
by Randall W. Spetman on May 30, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Just can’t figure out which throw you’re referring to.
"I'm just a big, hairy, American winning machine"
by Randall W. Spetman on May 30, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Just click it. I linked it to load up to the throw.
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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by Bud Elliott on May 30, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Found a good highlight reel
JH made some damn good throws this year. Unfortunately, for every good throw he made, he made an iffy one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhtnoFqsTnA
"I'm just a big, hairy, American winning machine"
by Randall W. Spetman on May 30, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Harris and Ponder
I have never seen JH throw the ball while running unlike Ponder. JH has to stop and plant his feet to throw a deep ball. CP can do it on the run.
Example
This is the best I have seen of JH on the run and the ball didn’t go that far.
CP did double that length running to his non dominant(left) side.
Yep. Ponder does have body control. See the Throw at USF
"I'm just a big, hairy, American winning machine"
by Randall W. Spetman on May 30, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I can chuck a ball 35 yards downfield *and* knock a bird out of the sky......simultaneously.
: )o
Oderint Dum Metuant
Jacory Harris probably does have the best receivers, and from what my Cane friends tell me, he is already packed for New York.
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job, no disrespect intended.
Pryor
IMO Pryor is a joke, being from Ohio I’m forced to watch my fair share of Buckeyes games. I just don’t see it, to me this guys should be closer to the bottom of the list (10-15 range). To this point in his career hes had one great performance(Last years bowl game) other than that hes been pretty much mediocre, but that’s just my opinion which is probably more bias than anyone else here
Nah, I agree.
I’m not blown away by TP. He’s really overhyped IMO
"I'm just a big, hairy, American winning machine"
by Randall W. Spetman on May 30, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think he is a legit NFL top prospect
but that isn’t what the award is for. When the run-pass threat is combined with the talent around him and the favorable schedule it is easy to see how he could win the award. If Tressel increases the bootlegs and adds option reads Pryor will give fits to the B10 defenses.
by osceolafan850 on May 30, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I admit to not having watched much OSU
But I’ve thought their offense over the past two years has most closely resembled a clusterf***. I’ve always though OSU has been at their best when they’re pounding the ball out of the I behind their solid fullbacks, great o-line, and good TE’s. When they work off of that and just let a pocket passing QB manage the game, they’re a good offensive football team. It’s just seemed to me like they’ve been reaching these two years, trying to find a gameplan to suit Terrelle rather than him being a fit for what they do well.
>>---l>
I know
I never said anything about the NFL, I just don’t think he’s a great college QB. He’s athletic as all hell but not a QB. From all the games I’ve seen he hasn’t done anything to blow me away, which is what a Heisman winner should do… Right?
Don't like Ingram's chances
I would think Bama would give the ball to Trent Richardson more. He came in as the nation’s top ranked RB and certainly played like it. I don’t think Bama has anything to lose by balancing out Ingram and Richardson. I would take a few other RBs first.
Kellen Moore has a good shot. I think voters will be more likely to show love for a non-BCS school than in years past – he already has a BCS win under his belt.
I am kind of suprised you all are mentioning Landry Jones, but he is certainly as good as Josh Heupel and could quarterback a similar turnaround.
You got my boy's trophy; he want it back. - Torrance Marshall
I think OU is underrated. If Adrian Taylor is healthy, they look good.
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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by Bud Elliott on May 31, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
No way Ingram gets it this year.
He’d have to actually EARN it this time.
If Kellen Moore beats VT, he’s gotta be the favorite. I think that’s the best bet.
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Yes.
We live in a sad, sad world. I will be a Hokie on that day.
"I'm just a big, hairy, American winning machine"
by Randall W. Spetman on Jun 1, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Andy Dalton??
Surprised he is not at least mentioned.
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