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Steele has caught a lot of flak for his Oklahoma #1 prediction, but today we find out what's behind it.

Cliffs: Extremely talented team returns with a lot of experience. Oh, and even at 8-5, Oklahoma was probably one of the best 10 teams in the country. They just had a ridiculous amount of bad luck with injuries and random turnovers (the unluckiest team in America per Matt Hinton).

Many balked at the early line here (Oklahoma -10), but this appears to be FSU's toughest game.

Podcast here with more Steele on Oklahoma.

almost 2 years ago Recruiting_image_tiny Bud Elliott 63 comments 0 recs  | 

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OU is by far the most difficult game...

UF is a known commodity, and it will be played at Doak. OU is another matter entirely. I saw 3 games last year: the BYU game, the Miami game and the Stanford Bowl game. They are beatable. The BYU game magnified what a proper defensive scheme can do to limit OU offense. Sure Bradford got KO’d, but BYU was strangling the OU offense anyway up to that play.
Will FSU’s D be coached up enough to maintain the game plan? Dont know, but i think this game will be closer than 10 points….I think FSU scores plenty against OU—-the game hinges on FSU stopping the run, and Landry’s play action.

"You're either carrying a spear, or running from it"

by BigSpearDiplomacy on Jun 17, 2010 6:57 AM EDT reply actions  

OU was struggling before Bradford got hurt because they were shooting themselves in the foot with penalties.

They kept putting themselves in bad down and distance situations due to false start and holding penalties by a green offensive line. This limited the OU offense more than the BYU defense did.

by nolesblogger on Jun 17, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

People will probably knock the sooners offense by saying that they play a bunch of weak defenses that inflate their offensive production. While that may be true, does anyone really think FSU’s new and improved defense will be better then the average Big 12 defense? I don’t think so.

OU has also only lost 2 home games since Stoops has been there. While the game might be competitive, I don’t think FSU will pull it out. And if its a close game, I don’t think that the talking heads will focus on FSU keeping it close and being ‘back’.

by mhauer on Jun 17, 2010 9:15 AM EDT reply actions  

-10 is a good line for FSU & Vegas

I see plenty of action both ways, and it means OU is a TD favorite on a neutral field. Who could even possibly argue that.

"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett

by The Ryno and I Know on Jun 17, 2010 9:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Out of Conference

Traditionally, FSU plays very well when they play unfamiliar opponents (Last year BYU West Virginia ).

by jayman54 on Jun 17, 2010 11:08 AM EDT reply actions  

Miami beat a better vesion of this team last year

and FSU should have beaten Miami. This game is very winnable.

by jayman54 on Jun 17, 2010 11:10 AM EDT reply actions  

This OU team will be better than last year's team

But you can’t analyze it like that. FSU lost to USF who Lost to Miami who Lost to Clemson who lost to Maryland…

by Bud Elliott on Jun 17, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

in mma we refer to this as mmath. Figher A beats fighter B who beats fighter C who beats fighter A. There are endless loops in mmath loops, some of which demonstrate how a 1-12 lightweight fighter could beat the number one ranked heavyweight in the world.

by mhauer on Jun 17, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

The logic is circular in of itself

What you can glean from it are the qualitative findings, like how a specific team won/lost against a similar opponent of yours.

TN: Our speculation is better than most pundits' analysis

by ricobert1 on Jun 17, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

OU will be better this season than last.

Christian Ponder: Your favorite quarterback's favorite quarterback.

by Jamil Dawson on Jun 17, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

As others have said...

…you can’t look at it that way. By that logic, Jacksonville State is better than BYU.

I think we have a shot at winning if the offense plays very well and the defense has an unusually good day with some breaks, but I’m not going to be bothered if we don’t win. We’re not supposed to win.

In order to say, “We should beat them,” you’d have to assume a much better defense than is reasonable to expect this year.

by Drew J Jones on Jun 17, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

OU is fielding a very good team next year

…but so are the Noles. It’s going to be a good game and I’m hopeful for our squad, but playing at Norman is going to make this game very difficult. On the bright side, if we do win we can say we beat the Sooners in their house, and if we lose… well, that’s kind of what we expected. Regardless, I think the game will bring our team some positive attention, and that’s always good.

"What's yo' glutes?"
- LaMarcus Joyner, to a pilates instructor at STA summer conditioning

by STAquinasNole on Jun 17, 2010 11:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Agreed

Just like to give info about opponents as well as many fans only know about the ’Noles and nothing about the opponent.

by Bud Elliott on Jun 17, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Absolutely

“Knowledge is power” and all that… I just felt it was necessary to bring up whatever (if any) positive aspects there were about this game for the homer in all of us.

"What's yo' glutes?"
- LaMarcus Joyner, to a pilates instructor at STA summer conditioning

by STAquinasNole on Jun 17, 2010 11:29 AM EDT reply actions  

OU will be very good.

however I would not be surprised if we beat them. We have to limit turnovers and pressure their qb to have any chance. If we hold OU under 21 we win. I would not underestimate this OU team though and they arguably could be the best team we play next year.

"We didn't lose the game; we just ran out of time." - Vince Lombardi

by 1newplayer on Jun 17, 2010 11:59 AM EDT reply actions  

Under 21?

No way they score under 21 in their own field.

Just for reference the last time they scored under 21 points in Norman, it was in 2005 when they were beat by TCU 17-10. They haven’t lost at home since.

by freshcollegeboy on Jun 17, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

If we hold OU to 30, I'll be happier than a kid on christmas!

Christian Ponder: Your favorite quarterback's favorite quarterback.

by Jamil Dawson on Jun 17, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly proves my point freshcollegeboy

The last time they lost at home they scored less than 21. Every game last year they scored less than 21 they lost. Getting in a shootout with OU at home is a guaranteed loss. We need to limit their offense to have any chance.

"We didn't lose the game; we just ran out of time." - Vince Lombardi

by 1newplayer on Jun 17, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

but they have not played anyone at home since then either. Unless you want to count the 4-9 Miami Hurricanes in 2007

by noledoc1 on Jun 18, 2010 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

YES. OU could be tough. Will we play

smart, tough, agressive, WELL COACHED football? I haven’t the foggiest. If we play up to just the F.S.U. last 30- some year defense( with or w/o playbooks), we have a CHANCE to disrupt the new qb,s timing early and shake his confidence. Of course if he has mastered their(proper use, lol) fast- break type offense, he could very well destroy confidence in the new zone-style pass defence among our young db’s. Loving our noles as I have most of my life, I HOPE for the former and a huge win for the new staff. Lord knows it would sure start the Jimbo era off with a bang. Hopefully the reworked, older defensive line can at least resemble F.S.U. dl’s of the past. If that happens we won’t be ( as good) as a middle of the pack Big 12 defense, we will be better.( as we historically have been)
one final thought about an oft- repeated statement on here.( hope i’m allowed…..it’s off-topic cringe) I’ve read very numerous times on here of our recruiting rank when BB was still coach and when sighning day arrived. Any old- timer will tell you historically BB was always a fast closer as sighning day neared. I mean NO disrespect to Jimbo or the truely awesome job done by he and his staff. I just had to clear that up. Thank- you and as always…..GO NOLES

by OLDNOLE60 on Jun 17, 2010 12:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Their QB isnt new

Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!

by RaysnNoles on Jun 17, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

DARN...... my bad, for some reason.....

I thought bradford’s replacement did poorly. Looking at his stats, especially in his bowl game vs. Stanford he did well. I sure hope our new defensive coaches can work miracles .

by OLDNOLE60 on Jun 17, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Standford's defense is miserable so I wouldn't but too much stock into that game

He is a solid QB with weapons.

Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!

by RaysnNoles on Jun 17, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

And a year of experience.

Christian Ponder: Your favorite quarterback's favorite quarterback.

by Jamil Dawson on Jun 17, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

His prediction

His prediction that they will reach the championship game is based on the schedule right? He likes them to beat FSU, TX and presumably Nebraska to get there. Any chance they get to the championship game with a loss?

by SeminoleMike on Jun 17, 2010 1:30 PM EDT reply actions  

A loss against FSU

doesn’t hurt nearly as bad as a loss to Texas. Those 2 will be fighting for top billing and the BCS bid in that conference. If they lose to FSU and run the table the rest of the way then they will be in the mix at the end of the year.

"We didn't lose the game; we just ran out of time." - Vince Lombardi

by 1newplayer on Jun 17, 2010 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sure

It’s Oklahoma. They can lose the confernece championship and still play in the BCS Championship ala 2003. Heck they can lose to Texas and still get there ala 2008. Everyone LOVES Oklahoma. Didn’t you know? (sarcasm)

by noledoc1 on Jun 18, 2010 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

No way Sooners are # 1

this guy doesnt know what he is talking about… there offense isnt even in the same caliber as FSU’s and they went 8 and 5 last year… Didnt we put up 30 plus against miami.. On and Miami went 9 and 4 last year. This guys predictions are way left field because Oklahoma only put up half the points we put up against miami.. I think we could lose this game. But saying that the Sooners are the number one team is not good college football analysis.. GO NOLES!!!

by Panama City Nole on Jun 17, 2010 8:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Uhh no

He’s as good as it gets from a national writer. They didn’t score as many points against Miami as we did, so therefore they aren’t good? That statement is so flawed I don’t know where to begin.

>>---l>

by DKfromVA on Jun 17, 2010 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just don't see it.

I understand that OU is predicted to be a tough opponent for us next season. I understand that they are favored to win and have this impressive home winning streak. What I don’t see is how everyone is just rolling over and conceding a loss to these guys. Yeah we had some problems on D last year. But anyone who knows about our situation also knows that we were not getting any player coaching and development for the last 2 – 3 years on that side of the ball. MA had all but called it quits after his son’s passing. There was no leadership on that side of the ball. Their idea of coaching was to tell everyone to man up and beat your guy (see Dawkin’s interview for more on the old philosophy). That strategy would work against inferior talent, but as we all know, when the real competition arrived, we suffered. We now have young energetic coaches on that side of the ball. I am not expecting a complete turnaround in year one as there will be plenty of thinking going on the field instead of natural instincts taking over. I do expect there to be fewer 80 yard TD’s as a result of blown coverages. I do expect teams to have to have extended drives in order to score as opposed to the 1 and 2 play strikes that we saw last year. Remember, the players we have lined up over there are not some Div !! rejects. These are players that were top recruits coming out of high school. They may just make a major improvement with some coaching. Even in under one year.
As for OU. I am just not that impressed with what they have coming back. They lost a lot of games last year to inferior talent. If OU is so good they can just reload year after year, why did they suffer so much when they had injuries. Surely the 2nd string guy was SO DAMN GOOD they could just step right in. Obviously not. When they faced tough competition they lost. Sure their QB put up great numbers last year as a freshman, but not against the real competition. I wish we could have played Idaho State, Tulane, Tulsa, and Kansas and even Texas A&M amongst others.
Generally speaking OU faces 3 levels of competition. The first group OU blows out 35-0 by halftime and cruise to 50 point margins. These opponents are generally outmatched from the beginning. Idaho State, Tulsa fall into this category. We do not. The second level usually gives OU a tougher battle for the first half, but lack of depth usually shows in the second half and OU wins by 20. Iowa State, Texas A&M, Kansas, Missouri, KSU, and even OSU may fall into this category. Again we are not in this group. Our 2nd team is as talented as theirs. The 3rd level of competition is where both teams are evenly matched and have equal depth. OU does not fare nearly as well against these teams. They also don’t see them too often in Norman thus their long winning streak. It also explains OU’s abysmal record in BCS games. The only reason IMO that they have been to the BCS championship so often is because of lofty preseason ratings and a weak schedule every year. When you only real challenge is against UT you tend to have great win-loss records. Their record in BCS bowl games (or OOC BCS regular season games) tells a different story.

by noledoc1 on Jun 17, 2010 8:21 PM EDT reply actions  

They were very unlucky

In football there are a few areas of luck. Fumbles lost are typically a luck issue (recovering them is not a repeatable skill).

As for OU. I am just not that impressed with what they have coming back. They lost a lot of games last year to inferior talent. If OU is so good they can just reload year after year, why did they suffer so much when they had injuries. Surely the 2nd string guy was SO DAMN GOOD they could just step right in.

They were asking to replace the heisman trophy winner with a RS freshman in the middle of the 1st game of the year… He got better as the season wore on and I’d expect him to be much better this year.

Gotta remember that our guys have not been developed as theirs have. They have that three year head start in some cases. That’s something we can’t equal in one off-season.

I agree with you about the Big 12’s scheduling, though OU has played some tougher OOC games.

by Bud Elliott on Jun 17, 2010 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

explain Texas Tech

this game happened late in the season. OU clearly had better personnel on paper but got beat down. Their D got exposed against a team that uses short passes in a spread offense (sound familiar?)
Everyone here likes to minimize OU’s shortcomings (they had bad luck) and blow up ours. I fell very confident in our ability to beat these guys next year. It won’t be easy, but I believe if our offense scores over 21 points before halftime, OU fans will start getting nervous. If our defense performs as I expect them to, we will win walking away in the second half.

by noledoc1 on Jun 17, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really their one bad game.

Not sure if you listened to the podcast link but I would check that out.

I think nationall people are downplaying the Sooners. This will hopefully be a good game. If we go up there and don’t get blown out I’m happy.

by Bud Elliott on Jun 18, 2010 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

still not sold

I listened to Mr Steele’s reasons. Some of them are valid. I still think he is overrating them. The OL sucked last year due to injuries. Now he has thm rated in the top 8. What gives? Sure they are more experienced in their 2nd year, but come on man. Landry will be more experienced, but I still want to see him win a game against a winning team. I see us coming out sharp and focused against the #1 team and jump on them early. They’ll ry and mount a comeback, but Landry will turn the ball over. Their team will then start to get deflated and turn it in the second half. OU quits when things get tough. Ask USC. And Texas Tech last year. I still can’t get over TT putting up close to 400 yds in the air and over 5 yds per carrry on the ground against those guys. But that’s just my opinion. Who am I? I don’t have a national publication like Phil Steele. I do believe I know my Noles.

by noledoc1 on Jun 18, 2010 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I listened to Mr Steele’s reasons. Some of them are valid. I still think he is overrating them. The OL sucked last year due to injuries. Now he has thm rated in the top 8. What gives? Sure they are more experienced in their 2nd year, but come on man

Talent and playing together. Makes sense to me.

Landry will be more experienced, but I still want to see him win a game against a winning team. I see us coming out sharp and focused against the #1 team and jump on them early.

This sort of assumes we’re going to out-effort them? I doubt that.

This team has a lot more talent than FSU, it’s a road game, and they aren’t implementing a new defense. Their players have had 2-3 years in a real college strength program, ours have not.

by Bud Elliott on Jun 18, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

"This sort of assumes we’re going to out-effort them? I doubt that."

Not out-effort, out-execute. I’ll place my bets with CP7 and the offense that they are much more likely to come in on the second game of the season executing out offense more efficiently than Landry and his guys. That is goig to be the difference IMO. Both teams will be in their second game. We will be trying to run our new defense in a live game for only the second time. This time against legit competition. OU will be breaking in half of their defensive starters for only the second also. I expect both squads to make mistakes. The question is which offense will start off on fire. If we fall behind early, it can be a long game. On the other hand if we jump on them early like we did at BYU and at Clemson, we can possibly pull off the upset.

by noledoc1 on Jun 18, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

here is the difference between then and now

Next year we won’t be coming off an emotional loss to our rivals and following it up in the second game against a div1AA school that everyone expected to just run through. (Hopefully), we’ll be entering this game against OU undefeated and excited about getting our chance to show the world that we are back against the #1 ranked team in THEIR house on NATIONAL TV. If ever there was a chance to make a statement to the nation this is it. Our confidence will not have been shaken at this point. Last year to lose that opening game in the way that we lost it affected the way that we came out the second week. The fact that it was against Jax St 5 days later only contributed to the lack of effort. Then throw in the rain and things happened the way they did.

by noledoc1 on Jun 19, 2010 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

The difference between their O and our D is bigger between our O and Their D, IMO.
OU’s defensive new guys have played a lot and are really, really good. And unlike our returning and new starters, OU’s guys have been int he system.

Coming out on fire is a 2-team thing. We’d basically need OU to come out flat as well.

right now I’ll say 35-24 OU, maybe 42-28

by Bud Elliott on Jun 18, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Their OOC record is suspect

Since 2003 they have only beaten 5 BCS teams with a winning record. Most of their OOC BCS wins have come against losing teams. Overall they are 11-7 over that stretch against BCS schools. Their only real big bowl win came at our expense. Otherwise they have done very little in bowl matchups. They will be overlooking us based on last year’s stats. We are not the same team.

by noledoc1 on Jun 18, 2010 4:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's the first real game this team will play

After teaching half of the team how to play football over the course of 2 months of practice. Tough to expect a lot.

>>---l>

by DKfromVA on Jun 18, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

you’re downplaying their ability a little too much. What is our record vs non-conf BCS teams over that period?

by jasonole59 on Jun 18, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Glad you asked

since 2002 FSU has played 29 OOC games against BCS schools. Our overall record is 15-14. 10 of those wins came against teams with a .500 record or better. But the record over that time period needs to be clarified further. Whereas OU filled their OOC BCS slate with juggernauts like UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Washington State, Stanford, Cincinnati, and a Pre Saban Bama squad. Our games were against the early 2000’s Miami squads, the late 2000’s UF squads, UGA, Saban led Bama, ND, Penn State, WVU.
The games don’t compare. Now one could argue that teams can’t predict how their OOC foes will fare from year to year as the schedules are made years in advance. I still say teams could choose to schedule games against teams that traditionally have had winning seasons in an effort to get matchups against winning programs. I don’t see OU doing that by scheduling teams like Washington, Oregon, UCLA, Cincinnati. These teams have no winning tradition. Only recently has Oregon begun to make some kind of noise nationally. UCLA will always be the little kid in LA to USC. Washington? They knew what they were doing by cherry picking mid-level OOC competition.

by noledoc1 on Jun 18, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Washington, Oregon, UCLA, Cinci are all programs who have been good in this decade, who consistently go to bowls (except Wash),

So OU is smart. I wish we could be smart like that.

Our Bama squad was Saban’s first year and wasn’t as good as the squad OU played.

by Bud Elliott on Jun 18, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not so fast my friend

Cincy didn;t start winning games until they joined the Big East. Prior to that point had you even heard of Cincinnati football. If so, name two players. When is the last time UCLA competed for the Pac 10? You’d have to dig real deep to pull that one out? Same for Oregon until about 2 or 3 years ago. And Washington…. no comment.
Remember, the time period I chose is the worst 7-8 year stretch in the last 3 decades of FSU history, yet we still played better competition than OU and I’d be willing to say were at least as good or better than OU against that competition. I’m not bringing up the Dynasty years where that winning percentage goes through the roof. In the meantime OU get all the pub and respect. For what? Playing inferior competition. They are the only team I know of who could lose the conference championship by 4 touchdowns and still get to play for the MNC in their very next game (2003). They’d then go on to lose (as expected). They are the media darlings of college football. Heck 2 years ago they lose in head to head matchup with UT and who gets the chance to represent the Big 12 in the title game? You guessed it. OU. They’d go on to lose (again). I wouldn’t be surprised if the NCAA doesn’t go ahead and award OU the 2004 MNC that USC is going to forfeit. This s=despite the fact that #1 they got spanked by USC and #2 Auburn (who played a MUCH TOUGHER SEC SCHEDULE) also finished undefeated.

by noledoc1 on Jun 18, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree they've played inferior competition on the whole

Two years ago UT lost to a team that OU blew out by 40. I saw the argument there, some didn’t. Can see it both ways.

Your idea that they tried to schedule “name” teams that were down is accurate. Except for Oregon, who has been very good for most of the decade back to the Joey Harrington days. That’s genius!

But you have to consider all games, not just OOC games. We’ve lost some very bad conference games during the time.

by Bud Elliott on Jun 18, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll take the safe bet.

You say OU tends to fold under pressure – and you paint a nice picture of us outdistancing them in the second half. But what if our defense gives up 1-2 big plays in the early going? How will they react? Will they say, “Here we go again” and get discouraged? That could have bad consequences that last for multiple games – remember, Stoops said he came in and saw a lot of heads hanging down. OU could easily do the second-half outdistancing.

Now, if you had to bet $10,000 on the straight-up outcome of the game (no spread to consider), would you go with the home team perennial 10-game winner, BCS quality program, or with the team that has an absolute question mark on defense (and a D that could be vulnerable to a major let down if an early big play occurs)?

I hope I am selling them short and we win the game – but there is not (and won’t be by game time) enough evidence that we have improved THAT much for me to bet that our defense will be so vastly improved in their first game against a BCS-caliber opponent (on the road) that we will win. First, we have to beat OU; then we have to beat UM; etc. We have to win several questionable games to establish that we are capable of repeating such victories. Until then, I’ll borrow a phrase from Mizzou: “Show me.”

by Invictus13 on Jun 19, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I choose FSU

there tends to be this group-think amongst the majority of this posters in this thread that next year’s D will be like last year’s D. As if FSU is stuck on stupid. These guys have been operating on raw talent alone for the past few seasons with very little direction. Everyone is saying OU will get be better than last year, but won’t give FSU the same benefit of the doubt.
We have coaches with proven track records now providing instruction to these guys for the first time. You saw what Trickett was able to do. He could have done more his first season but he had to work with what he had. What Stoops and Co have on the defensive side to begin with is better that what Trickett had when he first arrived, but even then a noticable improvement was seen. Once he got his guys in there you see what he did. Stoops has good athletes on the defense. Only thing really missing is a bigger and deeper front, but the ones he currently have will be more than enough for now with a spring and summer of conditioning under the new system. While they may not be the run stoppers we’d like them to be yet, they should be good enough to keep the OL off of our LBs so they can make the tackles needed to prevent a big run. I’d also like to think that White have a DE coach for the first time might help him develop a rushing technique besides the bull rush to get to the QB.

As for what will happen when OU breaks off a big play. I don’t see them packing it in. That’s not because we don’t have a history of packing it in on D (see FSU/UF the last few years). I see us hanging in there because now we have defensive coaches who can coach and MAKE ADJUSTMENTS. The players are hungry. They want to improve. I don’t see them quitting. Do you think they are hanging their heads now? And every time the defense forces OU to punt the ball, their confidence will grow.

If I was a betting man, I’d choose FSU because I know that my team has faced tough opponents away from home before and won. We showed that at Chapel Hill last year. We were showing it in Death Valley too until someone decided to call those long pass plays using a QB with broken ribs at the time. We were moving the ball against a top ranked defense using short controlled passes. We were also starting to pick up nice chunks of yards on the ground. I am predicting the same type of success against OU.

by noledoc1 on Jun 19, 2010 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

If FSU has been playing off of talent (and not coaching) the last few years...

It seems we ran a little low on it last year. I think it’s asking too much for a team to perform at a high level of competency in its first real game in a new system, with personnel that doesn’t perfectly match the system (you said our DL isn’t the big run stoppers we want, just yet), in a hostile environment, etc.

And they know this is their first big test. Sure, their confidence will grow with every forced punt – but what if the first two drives go 3 and 5 plays for TDs? Might that not negatively impact them as much as forced punts would positively? These are still pretty young guys who (according to the coaches) were really down on themselves just a few months ago.

What about execution? Will everyone magically start taking proper angles and using proper tackling/etc. techniques every time (or will they occasionally lapse into old habits – that stuff usually happens for a while)?

Our margin for error is pretty low against OU, I think. New systems often come with a few mistakes. The better bet is to go with the established team, who even with a weak OOC (apparently), played uf tougher in the 08 NC than we have played them in a very long time.

by Invictus13 on Jun 20, 2010 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

there tends to be this group-think amongst the majority of this posters in this thread that next year’s D will be like last year’s D. As if FSU is stuck on stupid. These guys have been operating on raw talent alone for the past few seasons with very little direction. Everyone is saying OU will get be better than last year, but won’t give FSU the same benefit of the doubt.

This is not true. The group think is knowing how much a defense can improve in one season. OU had one of the best 10 defenses in the country. FSU one of the 90 best. FSU isn’t improving by more than 40-50 spots. It just doesn’t happen. It would be an absolute miracle to have a top-30 defense this year.

We have coaches with proven track records now providing instruction to these guys for the first time. You saw what Trickett was able to do. He could have done more his first season but he had to work with what he had. What Stoops and Co have on the defensive side to begin with is better that what Trickett had when he first arrived, but even then a noticable improvement was seen. Once he got his guys in there you see what he did. Stoops has good athletes on the defense. Only thing really missing is a bigger and deeper front, but the ones he currently have will be more than enough for now with a spring and summer of conditioning under the new system. While they may not be the run stoppers we’d like them to be yet, they should be good enough to keep the OL off of our LBs so they can make the tackles needed to prevent a big run. I’d also like to think that White have a DE coach for the first time might help him develop a rushing technique besides the bull rush to get to the QB.

All of these factors will help FSU go from one of the worst defenses in the country to one of the 50 or 60 best.

As for what will happen when OU breaks off a big play. I don’t see them packing it in. That’s not because we don’t have a history of packing it in on D (see FSU/UF the last few years). I see us hanging in there because now we have defensive coaches who can coach and MAKE ADJUSTMENTS. The players are hungry. They want to improve. I don’t see them quitting. Do you think they are hanging their heads now? And every time the defense forces OU to punt the ball, their confidence will grow.

Their offensive and defensive coaches are just as good as FSU’s. You’re falling into this trap of thinking FSU moved past everyone when it improved. FSU did not. They simply got what everyone else had in terms of coaching. That confidence stuff? Same applies to OU.

If I was a betting man, I’d choose FSU because I know that my team has faced tough opponents away from home before and won. We showed that at Chapel Hill last year. We were showing it in Death Valley too until someone decided to call those long pass plays using a QB with broken ribs at the time. We were moving the ball against a top ranked defense using short controlled passes. We were also starting to pick up nice chunks of yards on the ground. I am predicting the same type of success against OU.

Laying out the gameplan of how something could happen is one thing. Predicting how it could happen is another. Clemson beat Miami in Clemson last year. Going to predict them to win in Doak this year? I am not.

by Bud Elliott on Jun 20, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

You’re falling into this trap of thinking FSU moved past everyone when it improved.

where did you get this from? no where did I say FSU moved past anyone. All I am saying is we have talented players on our roster who are getting defensive instruction from established coaches for the first time (especially true for the DEs). Could this result in some improved play over last year? I would think so. Is it going to suddenly make us a top 10 defense. No. Who said a top 10 defense is a requirement to beat OU. Did BYU have a top 10 defense? The held a Bradford-led OU offense in check for the time he was in the game. Did Texas Tech? How about the other 3 teams that beat them last year? All that is required is a defense capable of getting their offense off the field. I believe we have the players in place to do that.

by noledoc1 on Jul 15, 2010 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not a top 10, not a top 25.

Sorry doc, you’re way off here.

This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.

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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

what if our defense gives up 1-2 big plays in the early going? How will they react?

what you need to ask is what happens when we force a punt. Our defense dis that so few times last year it is not even funny. They are bound to give up a big play or two. It happens. OU is good. They’ll likely produce a couple. But if we start forcing them to punt then imagine what that is going to do to our confidence. Suddenly the players will start believing in the system and paying more attention to the coaches. Soon the 3 parts of the team (Offense, Defense, and Special Teams) will start feeding off of each other and before you know it, we’ll be back.

by noledoc1 on Jun 20, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

I am a doubter.

I think we have enough talent to be very good next year, but I’m not convinced that we have enough elite talent to suddenly be back in this first year under the new system. Is it the elite talent that held its own against uf? Or against a reportedly anemic UNC offense?

I don’t know how these guys will react to the coaching, and how fast they will. I don’t know how well they’ll execute. You seem to think that they’ll execute flawlessly in their first real game… I hope they do, but I think it would be rather surprising if they do.

Also, I’m not so certain that a few early, big plays wouldn’t have a serious effect on our guys, that they wouldn’t mentally think, “Uh oh, here we go again.” If even 1-2 guys start to get down, it could be really bad (another big play going their way). I’m not saying this will happen, but it’s possible. And even you agree that big plays WILL happen – we’re not sure yet if a lot of punts will.

by Invictus13 on Jun 20, 2010 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with you about them being unlucky.

However noledoc1 does make some valid points. I have been expecting a loss in Norman but noledoc1 may be right we could be selling our guys a bit short here.

class of 99

by xWd40x on Jun 18, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

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