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FSU 2010 Projection: #9 Most Improved Scoring D

There's been a lot of discussion here about what FSU's D will look like next year, e.g., how much will we improve?  Phil Steele projects FSU to have the #9 most improved scoring D: LINK


So I was wondering how this projection might translate into the 2010 Scoring D rankings.  And here's what I came up with:

1. Steele has FSU as the #9 most improved D in 2010.
2. In 2009 FSU was #94 in scoring D (30.1 points per game).*
3. North Texas improved 11 points per game from 2008 to 2009 in scoring D, which Steele says was "one of the best" in 2009.
4. Based on 1-3, it's plausible that FSU will improve between 6-7 points per game on scoring D.
5. Based on 2 & 4, it's plausible that FSU will allow between 23.1 - 24.1 points per game in 2010.
6. In 2009 the team allowing 23.1 points per game was #44 in Scoring D; and the team allowing 24.1 points per game fell between #44 and #55.
7. Based on 5 & 6, it's plausible that FSU will be somewhere between #44 and #54 in scoring D.

* I'm using non-FEI rankings, since I believe Steele does as well. 

This would be an improvement of 40-50 in scoring D.

Agree/Disagree?

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