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How much did bunting Mike McGee against TCU cost us? I put FSU's stats into the spreadsheet found...

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How much did bunting Mike McGee against TCU cost us? I put FSU's stats into the spreadsheet found at the link below, and assumed Tyler Holt and Sherman Johnson both had a better than average probability of taking an extra base on the different types of hits (with Holt's % being higher than Sherman's). Run Expectancy Matrix The average number of runs, from this base/out state, to the end of the inning. Bases 0 outs 1 out 2 outs xxx 0.863 0.461 0.170 1xx 1.392 0.816 0.337 x2x 1.514 0.936 0.442 xx3 1.721 1.146 0.473 12x 2.106 1.344 0.629 1x3 2.262 1.516 0.653 x23 2.384 1.636 0.757 123 3.016 2.113 1.034 So the number of runs we could expect to score in that situation dropped from 2.106 to 1.636, about .5 of a run. Not enough to say that this decision "cost us the game," but still a willful probabilistic risk. It definitely negatively impacted our win expectation. Run Frequency Matrix The chance of at least one run scoring, from this base/out state, at some point during the inning. -- If there is a runner on base, it's the chance that the lead runner will eventually score in the inning. -- If there is no runner on base, it's the chance that someone will reach base and score, at some point during the inning. Bases 0 outs 1 out 2 outs xxx 0.378 0.234 0.101 1xx 0.530 0.355 0.168 x2x 0.652 0.475 0.272 xx3 0.858 0.684 0.303 12x 0.713 0.528 0.292 1x3 0.870 0.700 0.316 x23 0.870 0.700 0.316 123 0.910 0.769 0.405 Not only that, but the probability of scoring anything at all dropped by about a percentage point. Martin's bunts aren't necessarily catastrophic. Over the course of the season they may only cost us a few runs and maybe only a game or two. I'll even admit that sometimes calling for a bunt with certain batters is a good decision. But not with Mike McGee. Bunting with Mike McGee always decreases the number of runs we can expect to score and, with only one exception (runner on 2nd no outs), decreases our probability of scoring at all. Keep in mind these numbers are based on the team's actual stats, and should therefore account for variations in pitchers, the risk of double plays, etc due to the large sample size over the entire season. This formula does not, however, allow for base stealing or getting caught stealing, so that could impact the result a little bit.

http://www.tangotiger.net/markov.html
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