Predict The 2010 Florida State Football Season: 2.0
by Bud Elliott on Jun 7, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
in FSU Football
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PrintThis is the second time we've conducted this exercise and plan to do so twice more before the season.
Back in May of last year Bud wrote about how professional gamblers assign probabilities to each game to go about predicting the season. Matt followed up with this piece last month. This is an exercise we like to run to manage expectations and show how difficult it truly is to win 10 games or more in college football, especially if a team is not favored in all of its games.
It just so happens I have a friend of mine who is a professional gambler. He has a day job, but he makes his living betting sports like a day trader plays the stock market, complete with a healthy dose of arbitrage. Every year since my freshman year of college, we've gotten together and broken down the upcoming season, and we have a method. We call it "proportional win shares". You can call it whatever you want, but I think you'll see how it's more effective than simply assigning "win" or "loss" to the games.
The idea is simple: assign a winning % to each game. For instance, you could say that FSU has an 80% chance of beating Maryland (0.80), or that they have a 20% chance to beat UF (0.20).
Now, I think it is fair to say that many around here know the drill, but Tomahawk Nation has grown drastically since last year and we want to give everyone a shot. We will conduct this exercise 3 or 4 times before the opening kickoff, so don't think you are too tied to the numbers. We just want to get a feel for how everyone is approaching the season thus far. It should be very interesting to track the changes in the optimism (or pessimism) for the team and to determine whether any change in prediction is tied to a specific event. This is your chance to show us how good or bad you think Florida State will be!
Props to editor Ricobert1 for creating this great survey (click "continue reading"), where you can select the chance FSU will win in each game and it will automatically fill in your proportional win shares! So read the article on proportional win shares, then take the survey! We'll unveil the results tomorrow or Wednesday!
Click HERE to take the survey.
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The spreadsheet cuts off in the middle of Florida at .400
and I can’t find the submit button, this my mistake or is the spreadsheet having issues?
Team Gold
Not working for me either.
Tried firefox, explorer, and chrome. Submit button grayed out on all of them.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
my submit is grayed out also.
ive tried a few different times and it does the same thing…..my total is 8.525
Thank God for the men and women who stand tall in the night to protect this great country we love so much
Not terribly familiar with google docs
but found this on a forum
“The submit button may become deactivated when the same form was submitted as a template. Make sure you either copy the template, or copy the spreadsheet which contains the form and use that copy spreeadsheet and its associated form.”
Hope that helps.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
This program was not designed for a Comadore 64
good grief, was anybody on this sight even born in 71!
Frank was born in 39, but he's still a playa in the retirement communities of Broward County.
I think he logs on with a Tandy TRS-80
Haha! You guys need to step up to the new KayPro!
I can play a game on mine!
Sheriff Branford: The fact that you are a sheriff is not germane to the situation.
Buford T. Justice: The god damn Germans got nothin' to do with it!
You can play a game? Is that Ladder?
Or Adventure? Or… dang, what’s that Pac-Man rip off… Catch ’Em?
Better than pong!
http://kidrocket.org/game_asteroids.php
Sheriff Branford: The fact that you are a sheriff is not germane to the situation.
Buford T. Justice: The god damn Germans got nothin' to do with it!
I AM SICK AND F*CKING TIRED OF BEING THE BUTT OF THE JOKES ON THIS SITE. FYI, AS YOU CAN SEE, I RECENTLY UPGRADED TO AN IBM XT. NOW LAY OFF ME.
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job, no disrespect intended.
by FrankDNole on Jun 7, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Wooooo! What up playa?!?!
Sheriff Branford: The fact that you are a sheriff is not germane to the situation.
Buford T. Justice: The god damn Germans got nothin' to do with it!
My probabilities haven't changed
If yours have, why? Just curious.
Accountabilty is back in Tallahassee....
Reading Phil Steele's UNC preview
Parker looking more and more likely to go pro in baseball. Reading more about OU. Adjusting for probable letdown games such as UVA and BYU.
>>---l>
Also, add in weather factors.
This will be a busy tropical season and will likely impact at least one game. Late season games at Maryland can be more problematic than anticipated.
I was at 7.625 this time- not sure before.
But I do know we’re at that time of year when Baseball is finishing and all attention goes back to Football. Articles about renewed focus in the weightroom and players having team social outings to the bowling alley will infect fans from West Palm Beach to Dothan.
So this is good timing to temper such lofty expectations born from mad lib-style filler articles.
I find it odd that you chose Dothan as your boundary city.
"Dear Angel Hernandez and Joe West. You Suck. Please Resign. Sincerely, Everyone"
by Randall W. Spetman on Jun 7, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
8.35
Definitely higher than last time. I think of it now from the mindset of: how many times out of 10 would we beat a specific team?
Submit was gray’ed out for me too.
Team Gold - Winner of the 1st TN FSU Spring Football Fantasy Draft
6.9
Hard to know what the defense will be like this year. Therefore you can lose any game potentially (except the first) We were lucky to beat Maryland and NC State last year – can’t give those 1.0 or even close on the road.
The problem I have with this method is you have 4 games you know you will win but you can’t honestly give them 1.00 so the number is lower than what you really expect the season total to be – that said – I think this is a really good way to come up with the total wins for the contested games.
8.875
Could easily be less or more. So much in the air….
SWAGGERISM!!!
by unconquered2008 on Jun 7, 2010 10:49 AM EDT reply actions
8.1
don’t remember what i had last time. I think I’m being pretty realistic with our chances in each game. My Clemson number is assuming Parker leaves. If he stays this number drops.
its working now!
Thank God for the men and women who stand tall in the night to protect this great country we love so much
OK, OK...I put 1.0
First off, Samford is not even remotely close to App St or Jax St, but the real reason: I padded Samford with an extra .10, so I wouldn’t look like such a homer on another game ;)
and we have a real opportunity
to hang 60+ pts on a televised game. We haven’t had the luxury of our cupcakes being on TV.
I put .975
To say they have no chance is crazy. Its extremely slim and I definitely think we win, but there’s still a chance.
I chose 97.5
Only because 99.5 was not available. I’d say about 1 of 200 is about right. Technically I should round to 1, but I wanted to acknowledge a chance of losing.
Process > Results
7.35 ouch!
I upset I couldn’t pick closer to 100% with out it being 100% like say 99%. there is always a chance just not a very good one for Samford. Brings it up to a whopping 7.47!
Giddy-up!
7.95 for me
Really didn’t think it would be that high with low numbers for OU and UF and a toss up (50 percent) for Miami.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jun 7, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah i was in the 30's
for OU and uf. And 50 for um….still was just over 8.
Thank God for the men and women who stand tall in the night to protect this great country we love so much
Thatut.’s the closest to what I would put, so yes.
We are probably like .99 to win that game
Tomahawknation.com
99% is impossible, right?
Are we basing this on expected point spreads as based on the proportional win shares article, or just clicking on our “gut feeling” of how likely we are to win a game? I think the corresponding point spreads need to be in the survey so we can have more realistic responses.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jun 7, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I did that with these lines, and I don't think FSU would win 99/100 games.
I’m no expert, but I don’t think any simulation would predict that either.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jun 8, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Another curiosity question...
What did you put as the probabilty for beating Florida this season?
I put .525.
Wow.
"Dear Angel Hernandez and Joe West. You Suck. Please Resign. Sincerely, Everyone"
by Randall W. Spetman on Jun 7, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
.4 and I thought I was being a homer
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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.225
i am really trying to stay off the kool-aid.. i could very well change this based on how our d looks early on and how brantley deals with the starting job. but for right now, i really don’t have my hopes up.
by ArsonistSavior on Jun 7, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I can't agree with that.
You really expect them to fall so far and us to climb so high in one season under Jimbo? We’ve been pretty far behind them for a long time. That kind of lead doesn’t evaporate. Think of us in the 90s – regardless of who we lost, we came back strong (lose Charlie Ward? Oh, let’s go 10-1-1…). uf is in a similar state of having great depth. Until I see on-field cracks for them (and a strong D for us), I assume we’re not going to be favored in that game.
The wholesale coaching changes for both programs over the last two years could have a bigger impact than some expect...
but we can’t know until we see these teams on the field, so you are right. we need to wait and see.
Giddy-up!
I have UF at .30
My total was 7.7. With 8 wins, I’m a happy ass camper.
"Dear Angel Hernandez and Joe West. You Suck. Please Resign. Sincerely, Everyone"
by Randall W. Spetman on Jun 7, 2010 11:39 AM EDT reply actions
I made two
Gut Reaction = 6.73 (UF at .325)
Expected Pt Spreads = 7.79 (UF at .41)
I’ll just take the avg. of those two and go with 7.23
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jun 7, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Man
I thought my gut reaction was low. I’d like to see your individual EWP’s.
"Dear Angel Hernandez and Joe West. You Suck. Please Resign. Sincerely, Everyone"
by Randall W. Spetman on Jun 7, 2010 12:11 PM EDT reply actions
Grrr. Reply fail. The above was supposed to be a reply to Ryno
"Dear Angel Hernandez and Joe West. You Suck. Please Resign. Sincerely, Everyone"
by Randall W. Spetman on Jun 7, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn't save them unfortunately
Rico can share on Wednesday.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jun 7, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd be interested to see which games in particular that FSU fans are most divided on.
For example, a report giving the mean, median, std dev for each game. That way we could see which games most of us agree on, and which games the readership feels could go which way, and why?
Make sense?
"Dear Angel Hernandez and Joe West. You Suck. Please Resign. Sincerely, Everyone"
by Randall W. Spetman on Jun 7, 2010 12:17 PM EDT reply actions
My guess is..
that I’d be above the median on all of the games. Maybe I am buying too much into the hype or maybe somebody spiked my Kool-aid.
UNC, CU and U
its hard to get to far away from 50% with any of these games.
Clearly we cannot be favorites at OU on the road or UF without some quantum leap of faith in the D.
Yep
Add BC to the list of closely contested games, and that’s HALF of our schedule. People need to realize these things when they’re forming expectations for the upcoming season, and that’s why I really like this exercise.
>>---l>
DK
Knowledge
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jun 7, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I have BC at .6 and that is because I am assumming an improved D on our end
Going 2-2 in those 4 games is the most probable outcome.
And here I thought..
people had renewed enthusiasm about the program with the new coaching regime. How can anyone be enthusiastic about another 6-7 win season? Maybe I am missing the point of this exercise.
It takes time to teach half of the team how to play football
People seem to forget that we had 15 spring practices, and won’t officially start again until late summer. So we have about a month and a half to implement an entirely new defense. I expect improvement, but we were one of the worst defensive teams in D-1 football last year. To expect a unit that bad to improve that much while implementing a fully new scheme is unrealistic. Also, our schedule is stupid difficult.
>>---l>
Yes but..
even with a maginally better defense last year we win 2-3 more games (see Miami, Boston College, and Georgia Tech). Do I expect this D to be a complete 180 of it’s last year self? No. Do I expect them to have at least a clue as to what they are doing and not have to worry about busted coverage on every single play? Yes. Having a DC that isn’t living in the past where speed beat coaching and having a Linebackers coach that is at least earning his paycheck is an upgrade in itself. And our D damn sure couldn’t be any worse than they were last season.
Doesn't work like that
If our offense and special teams didn’t work miracles at times, we could easily have lost 3 more games. We were a 6-6 team and absolutely deserved our record. I don’t disagree that the defense will improve, but to say they’ll go from the 90’s in ranking to something like top 30 is off-base, IMO. We had a really good post a while back explaining what it would take in point differential to improve our record, and if I can find it I’ll link it for you.
>>---l>
MY take
We (the fans)can realistically expect a top-60 defense (that is seriously not asking a lot), and a very similar offensive & ST production from last year…..so seeing what FSU is losing from offense/ST (virtually nothing), and what it is gaining on defense (Stoops/Hudson/Eliot), ST (Gran), and offense (Gran, CP7 healthy all year—hopefully), a +2 win total is well within the realm of possibilty…………..even with losses @ OU and vs FU.
That’s just my $.02……….which, when accounting for inflation and the global fall of the Dollar, means I actually owe you a dime.
Oderint Dum Metuant
Reason for Euthusiam
The program will continue to have more wins each year until we get back to winning the ACC with the occassional NC game appearance.
Do we haver to wait 4 years for us to actually get BACK or can we be excited now cause we are moving in that direction?
Agreed
I’m very enthusiastic about the fact that we are now moving in the right direction (it’s about time). I think we’ll win about 8 games – 6 would be disappointing, 7 would indicate the D didn’t improve as much as I think it will, 9+ means we’ve exceeded expectations.
But, we ARE moving in the right direction for the first time in quite a while. I am now confident that we will one day be back in the top 10 pretty frequently.
It’s the schedule we play you win 7 or 8 games with this schedule with all the changes we are making that is big time improvement.
The first time I did this intuitively I came up with 8-4.
The second time (the last survey) I tried to assign a percentage to each game, again I came up with 8-4.
This time I tried working backwards from what I thought might be the pointspreads on each game.
Sanford +21
OK -8
BYU +8
Wake +8
UVa +10
Miami -3
BC +3
NC State +7
UNC +3
Clemson +3.5
MD +5
UF -4
I see us as being favored in 9 games, but being favored by more than a touchdown in only 4 games.
The average was .625, so do I multiply X 12 games?
If so, I get 7.5 wins.
We will be at least 6 TD favorites against Samford
I’ll have to look at the resit in a bit.
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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BYU equals WF ???
Does WF beat OU at the Pallace last year?
BYU lost a lot...
"If lessons were learned in defeat, our team is getting a great education." -Murray Warmath
Mathematically the Same Thing
Right?
by freshcollegeboy on Jun 8, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Excepting only a possible deminimous (sp?) rounding error,
that would be the same thing. At least I think that is how I learned it.
Lines
We will know know at least 7 of these actual lines on Thursday. I will send the entire 200 games of the year sheets to Bud Friday morning. I will post FSU’s when they are released Thursday on the radio.
I propose an experiment for posters
1) First predict the season based on simple win/lose method;
2) Second, predict the season based on the proportional wins method
3) Post both prediction on TN
Someone (MattD?) record the point estimates provided by each method from each poster. At the end of the season, see which method was a better predictor of the season. Then you will have some objective evidence that the PW is a better method.a ;-)
Does anyone have a link
to any other point spread based winning percentages. The scale seems off in my mind….
Seems the percentages increase too quickly from +2 through +5. In my mind a point spread of 2 is definitely a coin toss, and a point spread of 5 is not much better (not the ~70%) given by the scale.
I'm bullish on the '10 team...
Much like the ‘09 team, the ’08 team, the ’07 team, you get the picture. i didn’t add my percentages, but I think I have them at 8.65 wins…
"If lessons were learned in defeat, our team is getting a great education." -Murray Warmath
The more I look at our schedule, the more I hate it.
Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K.
To elaborate...
- We kind of catch a break on Miami. We play UVa the week before and Miami has to play @ Clemson. But this is somewhat mitigated by the fact the game is in Miami and our game against UVa is on the road.
- Then we turn around and have to host BC the following week while they come off a road trip against NC State. Have to hope Russell Wilson has BC’s D running all over the field.
- While we do get eight days to prepare for UNC (coming off a Thursday night game), they host William & Mary the week before they come here. So it’s not as if they’re going to be short on prep time for us either. Not to mention, after UNC we turn around and…
- Host a Clemson team that will be coming off a home game against an NC State team who, at that point in the season, will have played Cincinnati, GT, VT, BC (all in a row btw…though 3 of them at home) and FSU in five of the previous 6 weeks. I’m not sure how much they’ll have left in the tank for Clemson. Off topic: NC St. has a pretty brutal draw..no Duke or UVa…only miss Miami of all the good teams.
- And of course, Florida comes off a 1-AA team as usual (though it is App. St.) the weekend before playing us. Though this is offset somewhat by FSU hosting, we play on the road (Maryland) the week before.
I believe I only went as high as .6 for one of these games (forgot once again to write down my picks)…all the others were .55 or less. I can’t wait for us to begin scheduling more wisely. Or at least in so far as what we can control.
Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K.
how do you view the spread sheet after you hit submit?
by Panama City Nole on Jun 7, 2010 11:44 PM EDT reply actions
I'm kinda' glad y'all can't.
You’d laugh at me and call me a homer.
Although I prefer the title “Prophet”.
You can crown me later.
Apparently, Ann was wrong. :)
by PeachTreeNole on Jun 8, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
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