Where I Come From: Where Will FSU Be Ranked To Open The Season?
by Bud Elliott on Jul 12, 2010 12:24 PM EDT
in EA Sports NCAA FB 11
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Inspired by a recent Dennis Dodd column, I thought our last "where I come from" post would ask y'all to predict where Florida State will open the season in the AP and ESPN polls. Dodd, who writes for CBS Sports (thus the absence of an ESPN mention) used five polls: The Sporting News, Phil Steele, Lindy's, Athlon. Yahoo Sports and CBSSports.com. Dodd found:
15. Florida State: New coach, healthy quarterback. Great prospects. Highest rank, No. 14. Lowest rank, No. 20. (60 points, Avg. rank No. 16)
Personally, I wouldn't have three of those in my ten best polls, but that's not the issue here today. Nor is the issue the stupidity of pre-season polls, which always produce inappropriate biases in the minds of voters which seems to carry the day deep into the season after many games have been played. No, the issue here today is:
"Where will FSU open in the first ESPN Coaches Poll? (the one used for the BCS)"
I'll give my answer later this afternoon, but first I want to see your thoughts.
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My guess/hope
I somewhere in the 20s. I just don’t think we are good enough to be a top 15 team sight unseen. I also don’t want teams getting geeked up to play us as of yet. I would rather sneak through half the season.
Thanks OB
Pretty fried right now.
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 12, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
No worries
Take a shot of rum and a nap. You deserve it.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 12, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Definitely in the 20s.
But Oklahoma will knock us out soon after anyway. GOD that schedule pisses me off.
I belive we have a very good chance against the sooners
SCALP'EM
2010 New Beginning in Tallahassee
Ponder for Heisman'10
RIP John Wooden
Personally I'd say 20%
Really stinks because I think it’ll squash a bit of the energy/good will/ excitement around our resurgency. NOT at all what we needed to schedule, especially so early in the season.
Unless we play them tough/close
That could make us more hungry, as we realize just how close we really are. A blowout could hurt us, yes, but a close loss (or any win, big or small) could really help strengthen the team.
I just wish we weren't being put into that scenario to begin with.
More likely to hurt than help in my opinion. How about some more cupcakes, UF style?
disagree
I do think our schedule is tougher than it needs to be, but in this case we need a high profile team to knock off and get us right back on the scene.
Plus, I’m glad we have a creampuff opener to work off some rust.
I’ll be in Norman and I sincerely believe we will win.
WAR PAINT OF TN
by Zach_Nole on Jul 12, 2010 1:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
High Profile team? We could do that by knocking off an improving Miami Squad
And then of course UF is on the schedule. Doesn’t get more high profile than that. Why risk getting knocked down three times?
All the pressure is on Oklahoma
high pre-season hype, playing in Norman… Oklahoma is expected to win. Glad it’s not the night game… If our Stoops can get Landry out of sorts, which he’s been known to do, we have a shot.
Accountabilty is back in Tallahassee....
Correct about pressure
still doesn’t do much to improve our chances of winning.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
What?
Ponder lacks arm strength? Think again.
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I am much more worried about UM then the Sooners.
you guy give them way too much credit IMO
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by stevegrizzle on Jul 12, 2010 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Top 15 would be awesome
but i dont think itll happen. Im going to take a wild guess and say #19.
by AntonioBromartie on Jul 12, 2010 12:33 PM EDT reply actions
was going to go with 19 as well.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 12, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
22nd to open...
14-0, MNC to finish. Someone save this so y’all can all call me Nagadamas come this Jan…
Football is played with an oblong ball. Take your roundball and GTFO...
by NaGaNole on Jul 12, 2010 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
23
I heart Cardullo...in the same way I heart the World Cup, Fat Girls, and Okra.
by Randall W. Spetman on Jul 12, 2010 12:35 PM EDT reply actions
You love Randall?
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
23
With past performances being held against us, the pathetic play of our defense last season, and questions as to whether the defense can make the required changes to the new schemes and be successful- I think mid 20’s is appropriate.
Go Noles coming from Atlanta!!!
by nolefan07 on Jul 12, 2010 12:44 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think alot of people around the country will look at the coaching change and restructuring as a disadvantage…just bc they dont know the amount of improvement in the change. We have a lot to prove. Well start low and finish top 10
by AntonioBromartie on Jul 12, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking 22 for similar reasons
Questions on D, new coaching staff (improvement, but unproven), and recent flops (getting ranked, losing and dropping out), etc. should keep us from starting too high. Even the offense didn’t look good in the highly-visible uf game at the end of the year (though we know several reasons why this was so).
I think we’ll finish higher than 22, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we start there. And I kinda like the idea of rising from below (rather than falling from above), so I don’t think I’d want to start top 12-15.
i agree with 22
Although rather not be ranked at all. I like being overlooked. Noles play much better when underdogs.
Team Gold!
by garnetandgold on Jul 12, 2010 1:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
21
Only bc frenzy picked 19
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 12, 2010 12:49 PM EDT reply actions
so speculative
does anyone else feel like we are going to get much more Sports-Center/ESPN Poll love now that the ACC is a fully under contract with ESPN.
I think the ACC will if it is the premier teams doing so and not the Va Tech's who play boring but effective football
If you’re going to be boring and good, you better be historic like Bama and Penn State and Ohio State
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23
Grace I call Your name, Oh won’t Your smile fall over me, I’m cracked and dry on hands and knees, Oh sweet grace rain down on me I need You grace
-Phil Wickham
don't they have a wr
who’s supposed to be all-conference. and an nfl draft pick (1st rd?) rb
Yes, ccd is just messing with you
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Sarcasm?
Also, all of what you posted is wrong. Not a new QB, oline returns almost everyone, receivers not new.
Where do people get this information?
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And yet I think their new offense will be better than our new defense.
That early in the season, at least. And, as someone pointed out, it’s not like they have a brand new QB (Bradford left, but he was injured last year).
I'm thinking 21
definitely could see a big roller coaster ride in terms of our rankings throughout the season.
"The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary." Vince Lombardi
"We'll win games with talent, we'll win championships with character." Jimbo Fisher
Since this is the coaches poll we are talking about, 18th.
But I would not be surprised if we steamroll through every regular season opponent and we are undefeated when the Turds head into the Doak.
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
Somwhere between 21-25
I have us as the 4th best team (independent of schedule) in the ACC behind VT, Miami, and UNC/Clemson.
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
this is not a knock
well be ranked about 24. I think that preseason polls are crap because most polls are going off of what happened at the end off last year and what they think a team will do when the team was not even played a down. Certain conferences will get teams ranked that should not be ranked because of the conference they are in and the perception of said conferences and the the reality of conferences.
15 is a fair preseason ranking but we'll finish just around 20 b/c of our schedule
But since this is the coaches poll, I’ll say #18
Accountabilty is back in Tallahassee....
It's almost not worth it. Just prepare for meltdown if we get the doors blown off.
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So you thnk getting blown out is possible?
I can see a loss bur not more than 10pts.
Go Noles coming from Atlanta!!!
by nolefan07 on Jul 12, 2010 2:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Better chance we lose by 17+ than win.
Oklahoma is a LEGIT national title contender.
We are FAVORED TO LOSE by 10. That is the expectation. If you bet on Oklahoma to win money the sooners have to win by more than 10.
We are not in this team’s league.
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But upsets happen all the tim
That’s why I guarantee we win. ;-P
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Game by game here (very rough, pure guesses. best was is to use %s), not official, etc
WIN 63-10 Sat, Sep 4 Samford
LOSS 41-27 Sat, Sep 11 at Oklahoma
WIN 49-27 Sat, Sep 18 Brigham Young
WIN 45-17 Sat, Sep 25 Wake Forest
WIN 34-17 Sat, Oct 2 at Virginia
LOSS 38-31 Sat, Oct 9 at Miami
WIN 31-17 Sat, Oct 16 Boston College
WIN 41-31 Thu, Oct 28 at North Carolina State
WIN 28-24 Sat, Nov 6 North Carolina
WIN 31-20 Sat, Nov 13 Clemson
WIN 35-21 Sat, Nov 20 at Maryland
LOSS 38-31 Sat, Nov 27 Florida
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7-1 in ACC play?
Holy cow that’d be great.
Heck, I’ll take 6-2.
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
8-4 or 9-3 overall IMO
5-0 v.
Samford
Brigham Young
Wake Forest
at Virginia
at Maryland
3-4 or 4-3 against:
at Oklahoma (underdog by 10)
at Miami (FL) (underdog by 3)
Boston College (8 pt fave)
at North Carolina State (10 pt fave)
North Carolina (3 pt fave but 10 days rest for FSU)
Clemson (10 pt fave no Parker)
Florida (7 pt underdog)
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Did you see AC's article with Spetman?
Randall threw out the stat that “83% of Thursday night home games result in a home team victory.”
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
Glad we play them all on the road
Although the last two have been victories. Nice to be a part of the 17%
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Yep. And we get extra rest for UNC this year.
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Ya, I HOPE that is our intention for every one of these games in the future
Since we will be apparently playing them on the road every year from now on.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Meaning, take the Saturday before and the Saturday after the Thursday nighters off
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
we haven't done a home thursday game in like 7 years; we typically HAVE scheduled our bye week the week before our thursday games though
The last time we didn’t have a bye before thursday was in 07: the sequence was home vs NC State, ‘easy’ win; Thursday @ Wake (who was actually decent then), loss 24-21; 10 days later, home vs Miami, we threw away the game in the last 2 minutes.
I think what Bud meant was that our UNC game this year comes 10 days AFTER the thursday game, so we get the extra 2 days to prepare for it. We’ve scheduled the likes of Miami, Va Tech, and UF after Thursday games in the past, but we’ve also taken 2 days more to prepare for games like Duke (06) and Syracuse (05, after a full bye).
Don't believe
we hit such high scoring numbers on offense in this many games, but I am inclined to believe most of the wins/loses.
What games different?
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For some reason I think we beat Miami.
But I think UNC beats us pretty handily.
by nolesblogger on Jul 12, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Miami's defense >>>> UNC's offense
UNC D- elite
Miami D very good (we only had 5.7 per play v. them last year)
Miami O very good
UNC D avg-good this year
And it is @ Miami.
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agree.
only thing FSU has is an easier schedule in front of them before the Miami game apart from the Oklahoma game. Maybe Miami gets a little beat up. One can hope.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 12, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously
Miami @ Ohio State
Miami @ Pitt
Miami @ Clemson
Miami @ DOAK
Aren’t they still bussin’ it to their away games. Hopefully, they’ll be beat to sh%t. Although this game will be a big home coming game for them.
by Tubby Sweetbundle on Jul 12, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
UM game is in S FL
Though they will travel 45 min to Sun Life-Landshark-Marlin-Blockbuster-Joe Robbie field for the game.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 12, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
And they get TONS of rest
Sat, Sep 11 OHST
Thu, Sep 23 Pitt
Sat, Oct 2 Clem
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ALL Right...
I didn’t want to say this out loud and don’t wish anything bad on football players but I had a vision.
J Harris gets broke like the literal twig he is against Ohio St. Out for season a la S. Bradford.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 12, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I've been waiting 2 seasons for someone to teach that guy the purpose of an offseason weight program.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
second quarter, 9/11/10
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 12, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
But 5.7 without a competent RB coach and no legitimate back back there
I know they are good but I’m interested to see if we are better able to run it on them this time round. I also have total faith in CP7’s abilities. Hopefully this time around he avoids the senseless INT before half.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
think their defense will be elite this year
Just do not see us winning @ Miami against that team. Then again, I have them in my top 10
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I have no way of knowing or even guessing at whether you are right
I admit that they were very good last year and return a lot, no reason to think they won’t be elite. I guess our offense is the place where I’m most willing to admit my Kool-aidaholism.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
If we give up 10 to Samford I'll be upset
and worried about what lies ahead the rest of the season.
I can accept 6 – as long as it’s not a TD and missed convert/2-point convert.
"The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary." Vince Lombardi
"We'll win games with talent, we'll win championships with character." Jimbo Fisher
true. in what felt like our worst game, our crappy defense DID hold JSU to only 9 points last year
on a miami hangover, nonetheless.
I think a lot of people
will be very disappointed if we give up 41 to Oklahoma. Not saying it’s unlikely, just that it will bring out everyone saying that we’ll have the exact same season as last year, getting beat in shootouts.
BTW, I see you have OU scoring the most on us all year. You think they’re definitely the best O we’ll play all year, or do you expect improvement on D to keep florida from scoring more?
I think UF will be the only O we play in the best 10
while OU will be top 20ish. But the game is in Norman and its our 2nd of the year. See it getting out of hand.
UF game is in Doak and we’ll be more experienced by then.
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Much more experienced.
Just hope the same can’t be said for Brantley.
That said though, our learning curve will be steeper, he’s been in the program for some time now, our whole D is going to be drinking from a firehose all season long.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Now you're making entirely too much sense
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yes, I can't see us scoring more than 27
especially considering how Ponder played against Clemson. I’m not convinced he’ll be better than that early this year, against a better defense at OU.
But I’m also not sure that we can expect a top 25 offense to score 41 against a top 40 defense.
Bring back Peter Tom- a true Nole!
by PeachTreeNole on Jul 13, 2010 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he'll be better than he played at Clemson because he won't have cracked ribs.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 13, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 14, 2010 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions
But the thing is, we probably won't be a top 40 defense to start the season.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
I can.
I can see something more like 14-17 points. Maybe more.
I heart Cardullo...in the same way I heart the World Cup, Fat Girls, and Okra.
by Randall W. Spetman on Jul 12, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Phil steele also predicted UM would have the best OL in the NCAA last year
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by stevegrizzle on Jul 12, 2010 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions
We can cherrypick all day, but he's proven more accurate than any mainstream thing out there.
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I think 21-24 somewhere
After underachieving so much in the last 5 years, we’re going to have to prove something.
It wouldnt surprise me
to be unranked in the coaches poll. So many coaches dont give a rats you know what and regardless of the turnover some coaches are just going to be tired of FSU with preseason hype and nothing resulting. That said there are enough coaches familiar with FSU and the process that I would expect to be on the fringe 21-25. A big showing against Samford boost that to 17-23 range but the impending loss to OU will drop us from the polls. So this is really a negated point unless the Noles beat the Sooners.
Team GOLD
23, could be unranked.
Defense has alot to prove to the country, and me.
Mine
First, remember USC will not be ranked, so automatically adjust your projections up by one.
I think we will be 17th to start. Take dodd’s poll (linked in story). Remove USC. Then jump Arky, Pitt, and USC ahead of us.
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Coaches poll voted to disallow USC
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I know, I meant I was confused
You said remove USC in one sentence then jump Arky, Pitt and USC ahead of us in the next.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
21 is my guess
I’ve gotten to the point where I HOPE we are unranked. It seems like over the last 5 years or so, once this team (and yes, I know its not the same team, coaches or environment) gets ranked, we get our doors blown off or we get caught by surprise and lose a game we shouldn’t.
This is why I fear we’ll go into Norman, lose by the requisite 13 points in a game that is never close and everyone will just disregard us for the rest of the year, EVEN IF we were to get to 4-1 going into the Miami game.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Hopefully unranked
I so sick of us being ranked in the teens and low 20s and then blowing it early on and struggling to get back in. Whether you want to admit it or not we are the most overrated team based on preseason rankings and then where we end up at the end of the year.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/preview07/columns/story?columnist=schlabach_mark&id=2980407.
Plus it gives our fan base unrealistic expectations for the season. I hope that we aren’t ranked and maybe that will light a fire under some of our players and they’ll stop playing to the level of our competition and steamroll the Jacksonville State’s and play the Oklahoma’s close. W e dont deserve a ranking right now.
I see what you're saying, and psychologically it'd be nice way to start the JF era
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
Schlabach pointed out the errors in that survey, even though he published it!
Notice that UF and UM are also in the top 10 most overrated, and all 3 schools won titles during the relevant period (96, 99, 01, and UF again in 06 though the article was written before the 07 season played out).
No one “deserves” a ranking because nobody has played a down. But, I agree with you that I wouldn’t mind if a little underdog hype got into our players this year, especially coming out against OU.
I think we will be higher than we ought to be ...
Factors playing in to unrealistically high ranking:
1) Ponder Heisman buzz
2) Coaches — more than anybody — KNOW how bad things were under Bowden and how basic discipline and fundamentals can make a big difference
3) Nobody (except smart people likes the ones on this site) really factors in schedule to a pre-season ranking
4) Generally speaking, we are viewed as a program on the rise.
So, I’m calling No. 15 in the first coaches poll, even though I would rank us around 20-24.
We'll start 16
But only after ESPNU shows the results from it’s best helmet contest. I can’t understand how we are never in the mix for the best mascot. It seems like a no brainer to me. Is it because we don’t have an animal that can be anthropomorphized into something that would appeal to kids? This is the only mascot to which we are inferior…
http://tofupunk.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/DeltaFightingOkra.JPG
If we can win the ACC, I think we’ll be a lot higher than you think at the end of the year.
WHAT the heck is that mascot? LOL.
But you’re right. We got the best unis and the best mascot. Renegade is a fine, stately beast! the best part? I don’t think that’s the garnet colored glasses speaking either. I think lots of neutral parties would agree.
Randall will love that.
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
Ugh.
I heart Cardullo...in the same way I heart the World Cup, Fat Girls, and Okra.
by Randall W. Spetman on Jul 12, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I would tend to agree with that if it wasn't a student who dressed up
If they actually got one of the people in the tribe to do it I would leave it alone.
I'm not sure last year's Renegade was a student
All I heard about him was that he was a “British equestrian champion.” Since he wasn’t very exciting on the horse, I assumed he was a pretty big tool.
We start at 17th....OU is not as good as everyone thinks....
We start the season at 17th and I can definitely see us only having one loss before the ‘Turds come to town. If our Stoops can get this defense to stop anyone this year and apply pressure….Landry Jones is NOT that great of QB…..good line but with pressure he sucks. See OU-Nebraska game last year….if Nebraska would have had our offense, they would have killed OU….Jones threw like 3 or 4 picks in that game due to all the pressure. If we do lose (should not happen), I don’t see it being more than a touchdown or 10. Remember folks, they have to stop us as well.
FEAR THE SPEAR >>--)-)-)-)-)---->
We won't have anything approachinga 2009 nebraska defense...
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Nebraska wont having anything approaching 2009 Nebraska Defense.
Suh recorded an entire defensive lines stats (a really good dline) all by himself, literally. No joke.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 12, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
But OU's was better than Neb's last year anyway and OU will still be nasty
Nebraska also has Allen and Crick who will be quite good
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Was just agreeing
But raw data, not adjusted of course for garbage time/opponents etc…
OU Points given up: 13 games 189 points (14.5 avg/game)
OU opponents yds/per play 4.1
Sacks: 38
Nebraska Points given up 14 games 146 (10.4 avg/game)
Nebraska opponents yds/per play 4.0
Sacks 44
No doubt OU will be better than Nebraska this year but last year you have to give the very slight advantage to Nebraska.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 12, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
PS
I want either of those stat sheets for FSU
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 12, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I give OU the edge last year. Slight, but an edge
The offenses OU faced were better than the ones Nebraska faced and OU had some very deceiving stuff.
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texas was a pretty good offense...
haha, but I understand your point.
But just for fun
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYc0fAN2C_4
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 12, 2010 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
specifically the 3:12 mark or so.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 12, 2010 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Love that play
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I'm hoping 19-21...
So if we have a good showing at OU and still lose maybe we only drop to 24-25, at least keep us in the rankings, with BYU up next beating them should put us back in the right direction until we get to Miami.
Though in all honesty I could care less about the rankings this year, I don’t honestly see us winning the MNC, I just want to see that all these new coaches are earning their pay checks, so I do have to care about the rankings next year and beyond…
I do have paypal. Why would I lay 17 when I can lay 10 or likely even less come gameday?
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Oops, posted that way in the wrong place.
It was supposed to be a cheeky reply to
"Better chance we lose by 17+ than win.
Oklahoma is a LEGIT national title contender.
We are FAVORED TO LOSE by 10. That is the expectation. If you bet on Oklahoma to win money the sooners have to win by more than 10.
We are not in this team’s league."
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Jul 13, 2010 5:01 AM EDT up reply actions
No idea where we'll be ranked
I’ll pick 17 randomly but I hope it’s lower, if not unranked alltogether.
Where's Dan Kendra when you need him?
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