Monday Morning Tomahawks 07.19.10

The big question with Clemson is of course whether Kyle Parker will turn pro in baseball.  Still, there are other very talented players on that team and Myerberg profiles them:

[Dabo's] players like him more, a factor that cannot be overestimated. He's had some good luck so far, however. He inherited a tough yet enviable position in 2008: the team was in shambles, but Swinney could only improve upon the always under-performing Tommy Bowden (emphasis ours). Thanks to a talented roster, last year's team was built to make a run for the A.C.C. championship. In 2010, we'll see what Swinney is made of. If he can lead the Tigers back to, say, nine wins, he deserves consideration for conference coach of the year.

What would have to occur in order for Clemson to duplicate last season's win total? The new faces at the offensive skill positions would have to come close to matching their predecessor's production, particularly at running back. That's not going to happen with an individual rusher, but instead with a by-committee approach. Clemson would have to first identify a starting quarterback - that's if Parker opts for baseball - then create a system best suited for the starter's skill set. To be fair, the offensive line is in good shape. The rest of the offense is not, to put it mildly. If Parker returns, the Tigers could have the offense to repeat as Atlantic division champs; the defense should be stout, even with its five lost starters. Clemson might have too many question marks to make a conference title run a distinct possibility. The Tigers are still a good team, one capable of winning eight games in the regular season. If they do, it will likely be due to the play of a potentially terrific defense.

Lots more at that link, and also the "5 & 5" here, NY Times.

-Dr Saturday wraps up his ACC week by predicting the two teams with the cakewalk ACC schedules to win the ACC divisions.  That means Virginia Tech (avoids Clemson & FSU from the Atlantic) and Boston College (draws Virginia AND Duke from the Coastal).  If I were to pick a team to win the Atlantic Division other than FSU, BC would be my choice because it has a perfect schedule.  He picks FSU second and has this remark:

The top four teams in the Coastal Division - Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina and Virginia Tech - will win at least 10 of their 12 inter-divisional games with teams from the Atlantic, and help decide the Atlantic race: Though Boston College will lose at Florida State on Oct. 16, the Eagles will come out a game ahead in the final standings by virtue of dates with both Coastal patsies, Virginia and Duke. FSU only has a shot at one of the patsies (Virginia), and Clemson won't play either one.  

10-2 for the Coastal is awfully ambitious. I'll go the other way and say 8-4.

Thanks to inevitable improvement on the league's worst defense, Florida State will outscore opponents by more than 10 points per game after averaging a 0.8-point advantage in 2009. But fans won't notice any discernible differences between new coach Jimbo Fisher's first team and the last decade under Bobby Bowden as the 'Noles fall short of 10 wins for the seventh consecutive season.

Obviously, nobody expects FSU to win 10 games in the regular season with a schedule featuring 7 of the best 30 teams in the country.  Perhaps it could happen with a bowl game.  Even so, I think FSU fans and anyone watching will see the differences.  Forgive a national writer covering a lesser conference for mailing in his work on the ACC.

I guess the lesson here is that if you aren't sure who the best team will be, but are sure who the worst teams will be (a group of UVA, Duke, NC State, Wake, Maryland), choose the teams that play the bad teams the most (VT 4 of 5 and BC 5 of 5).  

-Jimbo Fisher was on Havoline's "Football Saturdays In The South" this weekend.  Here's video on youtube.

- Everett Dawkins is up to 282 lbs (played last season at 258).   All the changes to the program have been remarkable.  What could Florida State have been over the lost decade with competent coaching and administration?  Having strength and training programs is common sense stuff at major programs.   Three weeks ago some thought these results were optimistic.  Now the chart needs to be redone as some guys have eclipsed the projections with three weeks to go:

- Phil Steele has Florida State playing Washington in the Sun Bowl.  His reasoning must be that FSU will finish behind all 4 coastal teams.  If FSU wins the division (probably a 40% chance), it will not end up in the Sun Bowl.  I see FSU in the Chik-Fil-A (v. SEC #5), or the Champs bowl.  On the other hand, I would love to see Ponder v. Jake Locker.The bowl deals the ACC worked are a complete joke, but honestly, the ACC would have an amazing bowl season given the terrible matchups:

Miami, Fl vs Florida
Va Tech vs Notre Dame
North Carolina vs South Carolina
Georgia Tech vs Tennessee (Tennessee might not even make a bowl)
West Virginia vs Clemson
Florida St vs Washington
Air Force vs Boston College
UAB vs Maryland- in cold weather  

ACC would be favored in 6 or 7 of its 8 bowl games.  This poor bowl deal could go a long way towards changing perceptions about the ACC.  Beating poor competition seems to work for other conferences...

In recruiting, Florida State landed one of the top 35 players in the country.  A new recruiting discussion thread is now available.  Don't be afraid to jump in!  

In basketball, RushTheCourt has its list of the top 20 ACC players.  "The list is a combination of many factors: production, expectations, ceiling, skill set, statistics, efficiency, basically anything under the sun that a college basketball fan like myself obsesses over during the dog days of summer. Hopefully healthy debate is opened up in the comments section. Without further ado, here's my ACC edition":

7) Chris Singleton, Florida State - Singleton has all of the physical gifts and athletic ability to dominate and should transition to the next level as a 6'8 small forward with the wingspan to defend power forwards. As for the college game, it remains boom-or-bust for Leonard Hamilton's most talented and most frustrating player. As a prime example, Singleton sandwiched 22 and 23 point performances with a two point showing during ACC play last season. Free throw shooting and a mid-range game also need improvement.

Hit the link for more hoops.  Good work there.