College Football Season Win Totals 2010 Initial Vegas Lines
by Bud Elliott on Jul 19, 2010 4:55 PM EDT
in FSU Football
223 comments
The College Football Season Win Totals for 2010 have been released. Click continue reading to see them and give us your thoughts:
click to enlarge
So Vegas views Florida State as being more likely to go 7-5 than 9-3, and projects an 8-4 season. That is exactly how most of us feel at TomahawkNation.
Remember the - number means you have to pay that amount to net $100, and the + number means you will net that amount on a wager of $100.
Example: A wager of $135 on FSU UNDER 8 wins at -135 odds would net $100.
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No. Have to bet on over or under.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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What's up with this board?
Gators UNDER, Noles OVER.
by rocknrollnole on Jul 19, 2010 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep. Vegas will PAY YOU A BONUS to say they win less than 10
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Yes. You have to pay a huge PREMIUM to bet them over 10.
Most of our fanbase has no idea how good this OU team is
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I'll bet Oklahoma over 10 at even money with you
I have them favored in all 12
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I see them going 10-2
I don’t expect the under, but if Jones gets hurt….things can fall apart.
Losable games include us, at Mizzou, at TAMU, and Texas.
WAR PAINT OF TN
Have them 3-1 in those 4
Elite defense and top 30 offense. One of the best teams in the country IMO
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Yes, but over is a terrible value
Under is a great value at +150 and teams often don’t live up to expectations due to injuries, etc.
WAR PAINT OF TN
Would NOT play over with a $0.70 premium.
Do not agree about the great value of under. Saving my money.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Who do you have winning the big 12
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Bud, after further investigating, I agree with you
OU is definitely a “no-touch” with the odds listed.
The BIG 12 is taking a pretty huge step back in 2010.
Teams that are significantly worse than 2009:
Okie State – Lose a ton
Kansas – Lose a ton
Texas – still loaded, but very young
Plus, OU avoids the best team in the North (Nebraska).
I still think 10-2, but I agree with you here.
WAR PAINT OF TN
I think Okie State and Kansas could both miss bowl games
And Missing Nebraska is huge.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Looks right
I can understand them skipping Wake Forest & Virginia, but why isn’t Boston College listed?
Where's Dan Kendra when you need him?
Tiny fanbase. No interest. Boring team.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Who beats them?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Vegas wants their $ back.
I could see the Horned Frogs losing to Oregon State, BYU, Air Force, Baylor.
Um... you have to pay 220 to net 100
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I cant see them losing more than 1 game
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
Which isn't good enough to bet on IMO
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
Wasn't sure
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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About you knowing
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Have you seen their schedule?
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
Would you have picked BSU to lose more than 1 last year?
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
Why?
Their schedule is a joke, much like TCU’s this year
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
you said last year
I had them losing their opening game against Oregon and thought they would slip up somewhere else further down the road.
I know TCU has an easy schedule. There is no one of real threat, but I do see a few teams who could pose a problem.
I agree that there are teams that could pose a problem
I just think TCU is too talented and to well coach to let those problems turn into losses
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
They are well coached. They lose DE Jerry Hughes but have 16 returning starters
And Gary Patterson is a helluva coach. If we had to hire another coach he would be my first choice.
Chances are they win 11, but the odds of +180 are very good.
No strong lean for me on the season total
but TCU will be public darlings this year. No team has gone 3 years in a row with 8+ wins ats. TCU is 8-4 last two. Points will be attractive.
by rocknrollnole on Jul 19, 2010 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually have us as slightly better odds to go 9-3 than 7-5 so there is some value there to me.
Tomahawknation.com
It's a tough bet
Potential to win 9, sure, but I don’t know if I’d put money on 7 even. Our defense is that up in the air to me.
Where's Dan Kendra when you need him?
I do too but the huge impact of a defensive injury makes me tip to 7-5
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Confirmation on Austin and Parker could also tip the scale though
by nolesblogger on Jul 19, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Austin. I have Parker as 100% gone in my estimations
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Missouri O/U 7 intersting
They have at least 15 starters returning, including their QB, and they’re coming off at least 5-7 or better win/loss season. IIRC they were something like +38 ypg last season and +3 in T.O. margin. They have a tough second half of the season, but they could be 5-0 heading into the their game against Texas.
You only get $0.55 net return by betting them.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Yeah but LITERALLY every bet could pay off if you have big balls and a big bankroll.
Just some are more likely to pay off that others.
by nolesblogger on Jul 19, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
No
Even a bad bet could pay off if you get lucky
by nolesblogger on Jul 19, 2010 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course. Any bet can be a good bet with luck.
I wasn’t talking about luck though. I was talking about the Missouri spread paying off if you had big balls and a big banks roll.
Thursday
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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This exercise is where I think many of TN's members get it wrong...
It seems some folks place their shares not with the expectation, but with the hope. I have been worried that I could not differentiate the two, so I do not participate. Some will argue that they “expect” FSU to play with OU in Norman, possibly even pulling off the upset. That is a hope, not an expectation. The problem with that is much more than throwing of the numbers in the exercise. The problem is if people get their hopes confused with an expectation then what should be considered a huge success of a season in many’s eyes can end up being viewed as less than successful.
I agree that they can be difficult to differentiate, and you have to be brutally honest.
Think about the fact that Vegas has it set almost exactly where we did.
Tomahawknation.com
That is exactly why I read what you guys come up with and do not participate in the exercise, or pay much attention to the final tally.
I pay close attention to what the TN staff and regular contributors have to say when you guys do that, but the end numbers can be thrown off by people who are confusing expectations and hopes!
I am right at 8.02 right now
I think 8-4 is a big step in the right direction
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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It took Jimbo three years to get the mess that JB left us in right. I think that it was a miracle that he did it in three years.
Was the D as bad off this past year as the O was when JB left? At least as bad IMO. Not only does Jimbo have to get that side of the ball right now, but he has to get the Program right as a whole. Can he do that in 3 years? Maybe so, but to “expect” it in one is insane to me. So, yes, I agree with you completely that 8-4 is a successful step in the right direction. I will be disappointed with less than that – and that might be where I am confusing hope and expectation. 7 – 5 or less just sounds bad to me, no matter how difficult our schedule is.
Jimbo had far less talent on offense then what is currently on the defense
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
Can I reply that the even though the D has more talent it was not coached as well?
Oh, wait….nevermind!
With Jimbo having complete control it would be safe to assume change can be implemented much quicker and in a modern way so I see you and Bud’s point. I just cannot wait to see this team on the field! I really do think that regardless of record this year we will come away liking the way our Noles play football again. It has been a long time since you could like both sides of the ball at FSU.
I think 3 years was right
I don’t think 3 years is a miracle normally. Also, defensive turnarounds happen much quicker than offensive
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I think it will take us at least 3 to become elite on D though
1 to become about average, 2 to become good but not great, and maybe in year 3 we make that final jump.
Expecting an elite defense in the second season is a little unfair.
by nolesblogger on Jul 19, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I bet we are top 15 in 2011
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 19, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Who do we lose?
Jenijie, White, and maybe Bradham?
9 or 8 starters return.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Yeah but they will only be 2 years removed from being one of the worst defenses in the country.
I think we’ll definitely continue to improve. And top 20 or higher isn’t out of the realm of possibility. But I’m not setting my expectations that high.
However, I can foresee our defense possibly being better than our offense in 2011.
by nolesblogger on Jul 19, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
They also will be in their 2nd year of the same system.
Christian Ponder: Your favorite quarterback's favorite quarterback.
by FloridaStateJay on Jul 20, 2010 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Right
I definitely think this helps us improve, but maybe not when compared to other schools. Plenty of other teams will have more years of their system.
Like I said, I expect continuous improvement, but not for us to be elite. Being elite should be the goal though, as it is attainable.
by nolesblogger on Jul 20, 2010 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
If they honestly expect it, it is an expectation
They just base their expectation on well… not sure
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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This next month is the height of kool-aid season
So hopefully the point is able to be emphasized when we do it Thursday.
>>---l>
Noob question
could someone give a brief breakdown of how to read this? You know, for us non-degenerate gamblers. The whole “over under” “-14/+21” thing looks like a foreign language to me, could never really grasp it during the weekly game odds during the season either.
There's an explanation in the post
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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So if a team is Over or under a certain number that is the amount they have to win to pay the bet off. If I bet OVER 8 for FSU they have to win 9 for me to win the bet.
Then:
Remember the – number means you have to pay that amount to net $100, and the + number means you will net that amount on a wager of $100.
Example: A wager of $135 on FSU UNDER 8 wins at -135 odds would net $100.
Tomahawknation.com
So again
apologies for my slowness here, but during the regular season when you post the odds for that week’s games, and it says:
FSU -7 at Miami, that means that Miami is favored to win, correct? And FSU +7 at Miami means FSU is favored to win?
NO you have it backwards
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Backwards.
FSU -7 means that FSU is favored to win by 7 points. If you take FSU they have to win by 8.
There will then be odds on the payout.
Tomahawknation.com
Read it as this
If you bet FSU -7 you have to subtract 7 points from their score.
If you bet FSU+7, you get to add 7 pt.s to their score
USC has a 13 game schedule
Even with all the nonsense, the punishment won’t hurt them as bad this year as it will going forward. I like the over.
They kept the Hawaii game?
Heard the NCAA might tell them no.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
Let them keep it
on the basis that it would cost Hawaii a lot of money. Kind of a weird rule to begin with.
I imagine its to help Hawaii out with scheduling.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
Thanks.
The quote at the bottom makes sense. It’d hurt a second, unrelated party and I would hope the NCAA isn’t that stupid. I wish they’d restrict USC to only 11 games in a future season though to make up for it.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
I know this is a ncaa post..
but, just a heads up — lines are out for every NFL game this season.
Example: Thanksgiving
Pats 7 @ Lions, Saints @ Cowboys -3, Bengals @ Jets -6. On Falcons, Against Rams
Biggest Money Movers -
My bad...
Pats -7 @ Lions
Saints @ Cowboys -3
Bengals @ Jets -6
Yep, not even a number.
For UT there are no odds, for UNC not even an O/U
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Penn State under 8 1/2
Washington over 6 1/2.
All tempting. I was interested in Oklahoma, but 10 is a real fence-straddler.Tennessee will be one to keep an eye on; Iz
Art Modell gives me a hard one
To the guys saying this validates OU being a really good team
what was the spread of the FSU BYU game last year? Vegas makes lines on perception. Vegas isnt always right……..
FSU Football: United We Stand
I would take the under @ +150
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Jul 19, 2010 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
IMO they set these up to get an equal perception of Overs/Unders
they arent trying to make money on either side but to get the money even on both sides to minimize their risk.
that is just my understanding
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Jul 20, 2010 5:35 AM EDT up reply actions
They're pretty accurate
It’s their job. They make a lot of money because they spend a lot of time on it.
>>---l>
for every 1 game you can show me where Vegas got it wrong
I can show you 100 games they were right on.
by freshcollegeboy on Jul 19, 2010 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Overwhelming majority of games > single game sample sets
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Overwhelming majority of games > single game sample sets
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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LSU O/U 8?
I will put into perspective just how terrible Les Miles is….
His team have posted 9-4 and 8-5 records for the past two years. Of his 17 wins, 7 have come against teams like App State, North Texas, Tulane (twice), Troy, La. Lafayette, and La. Tech. Of LSU’s 8 SEC wins, two have come against Miss. State.
LSU is 0-2 vs Florida, Alabama, and oddly enough, Ole Miss. With games at Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas,plus home games against Alabama and a date in Atlanta with North Carolina, LSU will have to struggle to win 9 games this season, and anything less than 9 wins shows Miles the door.
Whats the consensus, over or under?
LSU is not winning 9 games and I do not think LSU fires miles for an 8 win season
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Sweet Jesus
They underrate us and overrate Oklahoma significantly. If I had a million bucks (err units) I’d bet half on the FSU over and half on the Oklahoma under and I would feel DAMN good about that.
Oklahoma is going to have serious holes to fill at defensive back positions, along with the tight end spot and Landry Jones has not proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he is an elite quarterback, let alone a plug-in replacement for Bradford. Sophomore slump perhaps? Would you really bet that out of these games,
Florida State
vs. Texas
@ Missouri
@ TAMU
Texas Tech
@ Oklahoma State
they’re really going to emerge ANY better than 4-2? There is just no way, barring a lucky string of injuries or underperformance by all teams on that list. Trust me, I don’t underestimate Oklahoma at all, but I DO realize that if they don’t find some serviceable corners FAST, they’re gonna have some serious issues in pass defense (despite their safeties). Also, take into account the fact that three of those games (Missou, TAMU, OKST) are on the road, where Jones had a QB rating of 104 (as opposed to 161 on the road). In fact, regarding TAMU, let me steal a quote from Blatant Homerism (an Oklahoma Sooner blog site)
“A&M has had its fair share of struggles in the aftermath of Franchione’s tumultuous tenure, but this is supposed to be the year when the Aggies take off under coach Mike Sherman. A&M boasts arguably the best quarterback in the Big 12, Jerrod Johnson, a dual threat in the mold of mobile passers who have given OU trouble in the past. Johnson also has a talented group of receivers to go along with speedy running back Christine Michael. All in all, the Aggies have the makings of a very dangerous team in 2010.”
It will be a MIRACLE if Oklahoma finishes better than 10 regular season wins honestly. I would go so far as to say they have an equal shot at better than 10 wins as we do of achieving double digit wins. It’s funny how quickly people forget that we too have a Stoops on staff, and nowhere to go but up, plus a BETTER offense with a BETTER offensive line and quarterback, and until we see this game, we really have no IDEA what to expect regarding our defense (for better or worse), because Samford should give us no meaningful display of our actual defensive capabilities.
I stand firm in my prediction of FSU beating Oklahoma in Norman by less than a touchdown
I have Oklahoma going 11-1 and us going 8-4
Oklahoma State is a 5-7 team IMO and will not make a bowl game. Tex Tech is a 7-5 team, A&M a 6-6 team. Not sure why those tough ones are in there.
A&M’s defense is awful. They do not have the horses to fix it.
Oklahoma has the corners and one was HonMention B12 last year.
I can’t take this seriously Sem1nole. You’re talking about one of the top 5 teams in the country.
The difference between OU’s D and our D is a lot bigger than the diff between their O and our O.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 19, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I just, the idea that FSU has comparable talent is ridiculous to me.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 19, 2010 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I just can't agree
I think the talent is very comparable. The reason that I believe this derives partially from my belief that Florida talent is better than the talent of any other state, and I don’t just mean on the top end, but in depth overall. I realize that Oklahoma recruits and develops talent very well but I cannot process the claim that our talent isn’t comparable. They may have more/better talent, but it certainly comparable. Wake Forest beat us 30-0 at home with SIGNIFICANTLY less talent.
I am a bit surprised that you have them losing only one game. You really don’t think that they will slip up anywhere along the line? I have to think that Jones will have a bad game somewhere along the line that will cost them.
Also, I agree entirely with your statement that their D/our D is greater than their O/our O, but I have to believe that Ponder has a chance to do something special in that game and that our offense will need to carry us. Their O should be able to put points on us, but I think we should be able to as well on them. I’d have to think that if nothing else, our D will play with a tremendous chip on their shoulder and some sort of basic discipline that may force a punt every now and then.
Why do people think Jones is some 2* bum that is not going to be able to replace Bradford?
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
Did I imply or infer that?
I didn’t intend to and I don’t think I did, but regardless I think he will be just fine… but you are overrating him significantly if you think he matches up to Ponder, Luck, Mallett, or any great quarterback in the nation. Heck I don’t see how you could say he’s better than Brantley, Jacory Harris or Russell Wilson.
His supporting cast will make him better
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
He replaced him last year. Not a new starter.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 19, 2010 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the talent is very comparable. The reason that I believe this derives partially from my belief that Florida talent is better than the talent of any other state, and I don’t just mean on the top end, but in depth overall.
Florida has better talent, but this isn’t state v. state, it is team v. team. I’d swap rosters w/ OU in a heartbeat.
I realize that Oklahoma recruits and develops talent very well but I cannot process the claim that our talent isn’t comparable. They may have more/better talent, but it certainly comparable. Wake Forest beat us 30-0 at home with SIGNIFICANTLY less talent.
Wake had a 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th pick on that defense. OU has outrecruited and outdeveloped the Noles. It isn’t all that close and non-FSU fans would bust out laughing at the thought that it is.
I am a bit surprised that you have them losing only one game. You really don’t think that they will slip up anywhere along the line? I have to think that Jones will have a bad game somewhere along the line that will cost them.
Jones will be the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd QB in the conference. He played excellent last year for a Rs Frosh.
OU’s schedule is CAKE. A&M and Tech would be the 6th or 7th best ACC team.
Also, I agree entirely with your statement that their D/our D is greater than their O/our O, but I have to believe that Ponder has a chance to do something special in that game and that our offense will need to carry us.
This is emotional appeal stuff that implies FSU will try harder, etc. This thinking gets people in trouble and is not the way to analyze games.
Their O should be able to put points on us, but I think we should be able to as well on them. I’d have to think that if nothing else, our D will play with a tremendous chip on their shoulder and some sort of basic discipline that may force a punt every now and then.
Of the 4 units (OU O, OU D, FSU O, FSU D), 2 are elite (OU Defense and FSU Offense), one is very very good (OU offense) and one has the chance to be above average/ good (FSU D). This is a road game with a new defense.
I disregard this “chip on their shoulder” stuff. It’s TV bs. Save it for TV shows. Both teams will try their best. It’s just not the way it works in real life in a big game for both teams.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 19, 2010 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Would you really
Trade rosters with them, right now? Maybe I’m being a homer (catch me if I am please so I can be saved from going astray) but I can’t imagine they have a group of 11 guys that I would rather have than
Datko, Hudson, McMahon, Ponder, Thomas, Thompson, Pryor, Fortson, Reed, Reid, Bradham
Would you rather have an 11 player group on their roster over that?
Also, I wouldn’t trade the promise of C. Green, J. McDaniel, Jenkins, C. Jones, Shaw, Luc, Cummings, Dent, Joyner, Trickett for anything. I couldn’t be happier with that group of freshman, let alone the other great players we have coming in. Am I being too optimistic?
I would trade in a heartbeat
I think you are really being a homer. Like really, really, really being a homer. Sorry Sem1nole, just the way I see it. By 2011, hopefully this is a coin flip in Doak.
Also, I don’t think Thomas or Thompson are anything to brag about just yet.
This defense is still going to make major mistakes. It will not be fixed in one year. It won’t be on the top quarter of college football defenses. FSU can pull off this upset, but can and will/should are not the same and are confused on here way too often.
At this point we are comparing a top-15 talent team (FSU) to a top-5 talent team in Oklahoma.
If you asked me to pick “FSU gets the doors blown off” or “FSU pulls out the win”… I would pick the former.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 19, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't want to make it seem like I am underrating FSU
I happen to think where we really differ is our assessment of OU.
Top favorites for the natl championship:
Bama 5/1
Oklahoma 7/1
Ohio State 7/1
Florida 9/1
Boise 9/1
Miami 21/1
FSU… 51/1
To me, FSU is on of the 15 best teams in the country. Oklahoma is one of the best 5.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 19, 2010 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I see
I understand where you’re coming from. I didn’t realize Oklahoma was the 2nd favorite vegas-wise to win the MNC. I really truly do see special things for this team this year because I firmly believe that Ponder will be a top 5 player nationally. I will say though, Bud you are usually right. I agree with you on most things that you say on this website. I understand that OU is better than FSU now, I just didn’t realize it was by that much. But I honestly would not trade our roster for theirs – what I would trade is our experience under a competent coaching staff. I think if this team was coached by our current staff for a couple years back we might even be favored in this game. I see how I am potentially being emotional and homerish in saying some of these things but I truly dead honest believe that our roster is going to do great things under this staff and that we have a better chance of beating OU than we did of say, beating UF at the swamp last year.
Would you trade our roster for theirs for this year? Yes, because I believe it is more talented in the starters and backups and is more developed
I would. For 2011? Tough call. For 2012? Gimme FSU’s.
I felt it was important to establish where we were disagreeing. I think our disagreement was 80% OU based and 20% FSU based.
we have a better chance of beating OU than we did of say, beating UF at the swamp last year.
NO DOUBT. Last year I gave us a 7.25% chance to win at Florida. UF took knees before half. This year I give us about a 25% chance to win at OU. You are absolutely correct that we have a much better chance of winning this game than we did last year @ UF.
One thing I want to get everyone to stop is the “play harder than them” angle when the game involves two top teams. I think that leads to a bunch of trouble.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough
I try not to think that we will ever “play harder” than anyone. I think you are saying that you would take their roster right now given that it has been successfully coached better than ours. I’m curious to know whether you would take our PLAYERS or theirs, given the same amount and quality of coaching. I realize that theirs are better than ours right now, which is why I agree with you that we should be underdogs in this game. Do I think that they win this game three of four times? Eh, more like three of five. I am curious to see how your prediction of OU being a top-5 team pans out. I really did not know they were regarded so highly nationally. As for us, I’m getting a bit concerned with the hype train that’s fast approaching. On one hand, I love the positive media attention and starting out the season ranked highly allows us to finish the season ranked more highly; on the other hand, starting ranked low diminishes expectations, which allows us to not be disappointed by realistic results. That and the fact that, the Seminoles have played better as underdogs in recent years – but this should not matter as much with elite coaching.
No I would not take their players, assuming the same coaching and development. I think their players were more talented when recruited and now.
Oklahoma has brought in better talent than FSU. AND they have developed that better talent better than FSU.
If FSU goes 8-4 in the regular season it will have a nice chance at the division and if not, it will play a patsy in a bowl.
Here is how I see us right now
99.9% Samford
25.0% at OU
82.5% BYU
92.5% Wake
80.0% at UVA
40.0% at UM
65.0% BC
75.0% at NC St (some say I am too optimistic here)
60.0% UNC (win 3 of 5 in Doak)
65.0% Clem (win 13 of 20 in Doak)
80.0% at MD
30.0% UF
7.95
FSU needs more 95% games and those must come from not scheduling Oklahomas and BYUs.
Now, 7.95 wins is .65 better than I predicted for last year’s FSU team and that is a BIG increase
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Last year I had FSU at 4.99 conference wins... this year 5.58
That’s a 10% increase.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you're low on Miami
but otherwise I agree with that breakdown. I also however am going to ignore those numbers come gametime and go with my gut that we at least cover the spread vs Oklahoma.
Being at 40% means we lose by ~6 points
That sounds reasonable
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
I am feeling better and better about Clemson, UNC.
I think we’re looking at 70% in both of those games.
Neither of those teams will have an offense — due to off-season losses that continue to mount — and I trust in Ponder to put up ENOUGH points against any team that can’t trade punches on O, especially at home.
No losses yet for UNC
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
The reason that I believe this derives partially from my belief that Florida talent is better than the talent of any other state, and I don’t just mean on the top end, but in depth overall.
But Oklahoma is not playing Florida in high school football. It’s about their 85 vs. your 85.
Art Modell gives me a hard one
Exactly.
Oklahoma and Texas split the top Florida talent and everyone else fights for scraps.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Texas and Oklahoma split the top Florida talent?
I hadn’t noticed them coming in and stealing Fla players.
The Funk Phenomenon.
He probably meant "Texas talent"
I’m assuming.
I agree with Sem1nole to an extent
Ponder and our OL >>>> Landry and their OL
All of our “talent” is on our Defensive side of the ball. 5 stars on all units with Bradham, Reid and McDaniel. Everyone else are Rivals 100 Type players. Most on D were robbed of a competent training and coaching program the past couple years, but we are still loaded with talent on D.
I do not believe that Oklahoma’s talent outweighs ours.
I think Oklahoma’s value for wins/national championship comes because the Big 12 takes a HUGE step back this year. Meanwhile, the ACC should take a step forward.
I still believe we win in Norman.
WAR PAINT OF TN
OU has outrecruited and outdeveloped FSU
but they don’t have better talent? I don’t understand that one.
And we can’t use the “conference takes a huge step back” when talking about one team.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Don't really agree with outrecruited
And for sure has outdeveloped on D, but we have outdeveloped on O, when you take in consideration our O-line and Ponder.
WAR PAINT OF TN
How do you not agree with outrecruited?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Rivals enrolled rankings
2007: OU-11 FSU-25
2008: OU-6 FSU-8
2009: OU-10 FSU-12
2010 enrolled rankings have yet to be released, but in initial team rankings: OU-7 FSU-10
>>---l>
06 a factor?
They’ll have some solid redshirt seniors contributing to the team. FSU? Not so much.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 20, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
FSU RS Seniors
Ponder, McMahon, Smith, Jenijie
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I knew about Ponder,
Didn’t think about Jenijie, didn’t know about Mcmahon and Smith. Being redshirted. See if I can find out how many guys OU has.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 20, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
RS Seniors for OU this year
Jeremy Beal DE
Cory Brandon OL
Quinton Carter DB
Mossis Madu RB
Jonathan Nelson DB
Demarco Murray RB
Brandon Crow FB
Adrian Taylor DT
Pryce Macon DE
Think I got everyone. Only guy that lacks a bit of talent is probably Brandon Crow. He was a linebacker that switched to FB. Just about the rest of them could start for any team in the country. Remember these are just their senior RS. I was told during this season they are a young team. My advice is go check out their roster. They have talent everywhere that has been in the program a long time…
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 20, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
5 starters
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
DK, that puts it in persepctive.
“Outrecruited” seems to be an overstatement given those rnakings— especially when one take sinto consideration the political aspect of the rankings (they do somewhat artifically spread the rankings amaong various states). For example, I would take the the #8 class made up of Florida HS athletes over the #6 ranked class made up of athletes from elsewhere.
In any event, those numbers show a distinction without a significant difference.
Bring back Peter Tom- a true Nole!
But when considering 1-3 years of development for those classes,
even with an even talent baseline, significant advantage goes to OU.
depends on several things
1. where are the development holes specifically- what specificr players and specific positions?
2. how large is the gap for each player/position at FSU compared to their OU counterpart?
3. how quickly can the gap be overcome with state-of-the-art trainng and coaching— is imporvement linear, i.e., does it really take a full 1 year for a 1 player at FSU to catch up to the same level as a 2 year player at OU, etc.?
4. how significant is the gap at each position, in relation to how many players are new fo each team?
Without digging into such details, we’re left with “outrecruited and outcoached”, which implies subjectivity. One side of the argument is talking about trends and historical patterns of improvement; the other side is saying FSU is an outlier in a unique situation.
And neither camp should be denegrating the other as being completely delusional.
Bring back Peter Tom- a true Nole!
Here's a stab:
I don’t think you necessarily have to break this down by position group. For simplicity’s sake, I think we can agree that there were severe developmental holes across the defense, as well as across the entire team with regard to S&C.
Now, with consideration to raw talent, ironically, we have arguably had a lot more talent on defense than offense. So if we say their offensive development was equal to ours, while their talent base was far superior (inarguable), and couple that with the notion that their offensive guys might be in better shape than ours at every position aside from OL (giving Trickett credit for handling this in-house)… I think we see a clear (-) on offense.
From there, our defensive development has fallen far below theirs, regardless of whether the talent may have been comparable….and S&C again puts us further behind….
So you end up with a clear dearth in player quality on both sides of the football, right?
I think a broad sroke like that--
looking at units as a whole— whitewashes potential weaknesses.
OU replaces six (6) starters. It’s simply homerism to say, for example, that McCoy’s understudy will not be a significant drop-off, because he was an X star recruit,and he’s been in the program for a while and the rest of the line will just compensate for the difference because OU recruits well and has good coaching. Somehow, I don’t think Hudson or Datko will be too impressed with that logic.
The same is true at the other 5 postions. For example, they have two (2) new CB’s and a new DB coach. The trend seems to be to overlook Martinez’s failures at UGA, and that the players’ are learning to deal with a new coach, and just assume they’ll all be ready enough for Ponder & Co. by Game 2.
They are replacing their stalwart MLB with a RFr, but hey, he was a highly ranked recruit, and OU is known for good LB’s, the rest of the team will compensate for him, and he’ll be ready enough for us by Game 2.
Texas Tech showed how vulnerable OU’s D was to a balanced pass/run attack, even without 4-5 star athletes. But folks have no problem assuming that was some kind of inexplicable fluke, and that OU’s less- experienced D this year will be ready enough for FSU’s more-seasoned and more-talented O than TT’s by Game 2.
So OU outrecruited and outcoached us. At a high level, I get it. But on closer inspection, I really like our chances.
Bring back Peter Tom- a true Nole!
and arrdub, I think we're on the same page
in relation to this stuff. I don’t “expect” a win and won’t panic if we don’t, but I won’t be even slightly surprised if we do.
Bring back Peter Tom- a true Nole!
I'm making a case for optimism elsewhere, so yeah, we're not far off.
On paper though, looks like we’ll come up short..
Are those the initials or the enrolled?
Because we haven’t consistently got kids into school and talent not here does not matter
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Dude, lets be realistic
Oklahoma has a proven elite RB, a proven elite WR, a proven QB, and a proven elite Defense.
Landry Jones did not roll over last year. He played quite well for the fire he was thrown into. Think how much better EJ Manuel would have been if he had played all of last season. We saw growth in him very quickly, and Landry may not have the tools EJ has, but he most definitely has the coaching and now the experience to see some major growth.
Florida State has a better quarterback and a better offensive line. Oklahoma has a better RB (proven, not what people are “hoping” for), a premier WR which FSU does not have (Fortson hasn’t shown he is ready to step it up yet), better LB’s, better Defensive Lineman, better corners (once again, proven), and better Safeties.
Lets just say the coaching talent is a wash, but throw in the fact that Oklahoma has had theirs for YEARS, and we have had ours for MONTHS, its a no brainer.
Oklahoma is BETTER coached, MORE talented (do you think we have more talent than say, Miami? We don’t.), has been running their offensive and defensive schemes LONGER, and is AT HOME (where they haven’t lost in OVER 5 YEARS).
As for their schedule, as Bud said, those road games are comparable to @Maryland and @NC State for us. Those are games that well-coached football teams should handle fairly easily. Oklahoma will roll those teams because they are average/below average. FSU and Texas are the only two teams with a decent chance to beat them, and Texas is the only team with a realistic shot.
And when did Mizz, OKState, TT, and TA&M become such viable teams?
by freshcollegeboy on Jul 20, 2010 4:12 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
These are pretty much my thoughts
People really underestimate teams outside their division.
Also, for those who say “we beta BYU”… This is true, but I had us at 55% to win out there.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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FSU/OU 55%(FSU) for me.
Do not underestimate our advantage on special teams. Our defense may not be as good as theirs, but their defense will have a hard time trying to slow down our offense. Our defense will not need to be as good as their defense. The difference maker in this game is our special teams AND ‘our’ Stoops. He knows his brother better than any opposing coach in the country. Besides, Bob Stoops is well known as a big game choker. I think Fisher and company will be more than ready.
You overestimate the value of special teams
Last year they accounted for less than 8% of our total plays. If you think that is where the game is going to be won or lost you are fooling yourself
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
the # of plays isn't the primary metric.
what special teams did to field position is.
Bring back Peter Tom- a true Nole!
True.
You need to account for yardage differentials on field position, but also red zone efficiency. Rolling all of that together would likely come out to something much greater than 8% factor in outcome.
But measuring an advantage in special teams is not cut and dry. You have to consider:
- Net punting coverage/returns
- Net kickoff coverage/returns
- Likelihood of scoring (blocks, returns)
- Red Zone scoring impact
- Field position from missed field goals
- etc.
I like our team on most of these (especially KO coverage via touchbacks, punt returns, and FG%), but I really don’t know what Oklahoma can field on all of these fronts.
Agreed. It is definitely more than just 8%.
The whole picture must be looked at and we have a big advantage here with Reid, Hopkins, and Powell. We have the best all around special teams trio in the country. Now, even better, we have a much better special teams coach this year versus last year.
Throw in Bob ‘Chocker’ Stoops and we have more of an edge than some think. We are not going to get blown out in this game. It will be close and FSU has a decent shot of winning in Norman this year.
Less than 1.5 months under a competent coaching staff on defense
And we throw them into the fire against a legitimate national title contender. I don’t see it.
>>---l>
Their defense was better than our offense last year.
This choker stuff is silly.
Bob Stoops has the advantage on Mark in terms of coaching this time. He knows exactly what parts will be installed first and how much can be installed.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Another reason why Bob will get outcoached in a big game.
He won’t be prepared for the unexpected.
He's a great coach who has lost three times to the better team in the championship game
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Bud - ? - OU defense
Didn’t they lose a lot from last year in their front seven? Don’t they have a couple of undersized guys projecting to start in their front 4? That doesn’t sound “elite” to me, but perhaps I’ve been reading the wrong previews for them. Could you correct me if I’m wrong in those two questions above? Thanks.
No
They return one of the top passrushers in the country in Beal, the top sophomore DT in MkFarland, a run-stopping NG in Taylor, and Frank Alexander is their SDE. They are bigger than we are in the front-4.
Their linebackers are some of the best in the country.
The previews you’ve been reading are probably done by lazy writers who focus way too much on last year as opposed to recent history and talent.
I recommend these
http://www.rockmnation.com/2010/7/18/1568419/oklahoma-beyond-the-box-score
http://philsteele.com/Pdf/2010%20Top%2030%20Countdown/Oklahoma.pdf
http://www.tomahawknation.com/2010/5/12/1468642/dr-saturday-why-you-are
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Thanks for those articles
Their DL sounds nasty, much better than what I’d read. Their LBs don’t look particularly stout on paper, but no doubt they are studs.
by NoleOrNever on Jul 20, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
OU OL?
The biggest question mark I see for OU is their OL. I know they were plagued by injuries last year, but they lost a top ten pick (?) at tackle and I believe they have to replace a few other starters as well.
I am not familiar with their OL coaching situation or their cupboard of talent in that area, but these issues raise a red flag with that team, to me — I guess Vegas has some faith that they will turn things around based on the aforementioned criteria, and that is where the optimistic projections are coming from…?
I expect them to be one of the better groups in the country
Last year they lost everyone from that amazing 08 line. Then they suspended their 2nd best tackle for the year and lost 2 guys to injury. This year they get those guys back and should be much improved. Tons of talent.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll trust you.
Straying into “hopes” vs. “expectations” here, obviously, but perhaps catching them early will allow us to take advantage of some new starters, at least.
If their head coach wasn’t our D-Coordinators brother, I would feel really good about them missing a good deal of assignments against a defense with a brand new coordinator (for which they would have practically no film). Hopefuly the Hudson element and unfamiliar defensive lineup will add enough wrinkles to our look that Bob won’t be able to discern what Mark is doing.
*by "unfamiliar defensive lineup" I'm talking about the personnel.
Bob won’t know how Mark will use his FSU horses.
I think they will beat us by 14, something line 42-28
I got what you meant (referencing below)
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
42? Wow... I thought those days were behind us.
Thinking about that game the dynamics seem to be similar to our performance vs. Clemson last year. Hostile environment against a very good defense. Our defense can’t contain them, so we have to press on O and end up getting burned by late scores. That one turned out 40-24.
I think a couple things might prevent an outcome like that this year, though:
a. Ponder’s additional experience.
2. No meddling from BB.
d. Zone D (less selling out, fewer big plays).
Together, I think those factors prevent a “wheels falling off” type of performance this year. So if I had to pick a score I’d say something along the lines of 34-21. I think we’ll play conservatively on O and try to lean on our OL to keep the game close.
UF could have had 70 last year
This OU team is ELITE and the game is in Norman. Don’t be surprised to see a 50 spot.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I have leftover lack of respect for "Big 8" from my youth - used to be a free pass to national championship game slaughter.
Bob Stoops’ inability to perform in big games (besides Richt’s mail-in performance) has allowed that legacy to linger with them, for me.
So… while I am obviously not putting any money on an outcome, I will put my hopes out there that we’ll have a competitive showing, and risk the potential heartache of watching an “unexpected” stomping. I will not, however, contribute to a board meltdown in regards to “how could this happen?” as you’ve adequately outlined the prospects — appreciate it.
He lost to the best team in the country 3 times
And one year lost to Boise using a WR as his QB
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Or maybe he had best team, and lost to 2nd best?
Hard to argue with USC, but 55-19 was inexcusable.
154 total yards of offense against LSU.
I have often wondered if there is some fatal flaw in his offensive system that allows him to gut lesser opponents, but comes up short against elite defenses? (Not that FSU’s ’10 unit will qualify.)
Last bit of hyper-optimistic fuel:
What allowed WVU to run up 48-28 against OU in 2007/08 Fiesta?
I know CP is no Pat White in terms of legs, but can FSU leverage any similar advantages against their schemes with its zone rushing attack and mobile QB? That game might serve as a good template for crafting the upset.
No in fact I think Stoops is now tremendous against the spread
He and Saban worked on it before ’09 and OU dominated those spread-run teams.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Would like to see the closest comparison to our offense vs. their defense from last year.
Not sure about the quality they’ve faced.
One contrary point — though Tebow is a different animal, he also ran for 100+ in the MNC against them.
They had the #2 D and we had the #9 O, adjusted for opponent
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Ah
Okie State was pretty good. Texas as well and McCoy was very mobile.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Still not sure if they are good comparisons...
Can’t really speak to OSU because I didn’t watch them. Put up only 7 points in last two games vs. OU and Ole Miss, though… Makes me think they got too much credit for beating a weak UGA team. Put up good #‘s, but I don’t see anything else on their schedule that looks that impressive.
What does Texas do schematically? And I was surprised that McCoy got outrun by Tebow at the combine — I am pretty sure Ponder is faster than that with his “fastest shuttle on the team” types of numbers.
I’m just searching for that magical edge that gives us a shot in this —
Ole Miss' excellent defense...
Texas does a lot of QB runs, zone reads, etc.
We have a shot because our offense is very good, our special teams are very good, and our defense could be ok.
Unfortunately, this QB has practiced against a more advanced version of this defense for 3 years…
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Lost to Nick Saban and Pete Carroll when they had absolutely loaded squads
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I too will be rooting like crazy!
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Why would I do that when I can take -10
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Jul 20, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
just making a point
I appreciate your efforts to tone down the kool-aid though.
WAR PAINT OF TN
by Zach_Nole on Jul 20, 2010 1:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why?
This is one of the 3-4 best teams in the country. I would bet them to beat us in Doak as well.
We’re not on that level at all
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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All it takes is one "oops" from our new defense
and a respectable 10 point loss in Norman jumps to a less respectable 17. Can you see us losing by 10? Can you see us having one big “oops” on defense that costs a TD? If you answered yes to both then you can’t honestly think losing by 14 isn’t possible.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
I can't see us giving up 42.
That’s a jailbreak number.
I can see them giving up a TD to our special teams.
I can see us scoring 28.
Bring back Peter Tom- a true Nole!
6 TDs?
I see it as improvement. UF could have had that in the first half last year had they wanted it.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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If Jimbo is smart in this one, we will utilize those extra lbs. across our OL...
…to eat, eat, eat away at the clock. 14 play, 84 yard, 9 minute drives is what we need. We should be able to move the ball on the ground against any team we play, so they shouldn’t have time to score 42.
Will be interesting to see how Jimbo plays the role of underdog with the whole game strategy now under his control.
On this point, we've heard a lot about increase in size on DL..
but what are our projected gains on the OL?
lol homer
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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All about the game plan
OU is the pivotal game this season…it set’s the stage for the entire season. I have to believe Fisher chose this benchmark game because he saw something. Our guys are quicker and for that reason I think our offense can keep possession of the ball longer which is what I believe to be the deciding factor of this game. Their defense is very solid. But their weakest point is over the middle with their young linebackers (and yes I know Travis Lewis is a beast) but if we are going to beat them it is with our offensive line and quick slants over the middle. Ponder is excellent at threading the needle and picking apart defenses. I think our greatest weapons will be Greg Reid slants…and I would like to see Pryor over Thompson get more carries…he’s smaller, quicker, and more agile and I just have a feeling he has OU’s number. IF we are going to win this game…and we DO have a shot, statistics aside, this is College Football after all. It’s going to be Fisher and Ponder working together to wear out their only real weakness…the shallow depth of their linebackers.
Fear the mind of the FSU fan
Bert Reed slants***
Fear the mind of the FSU fan
by Will_The_Nole on Jul 23, 2010 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions
2010 team totals
For those that already have an understanding of the vig and would rather discuss actual lines…the 4 most interesting are Arizona at 7, Wisconsin at 9, Notre Dame and 8, and Miami at 8.5. I like AZ and Wisc to go over those numbers (will shop for 7.5 to get normal juice on AZ) . I also like ND and Mia to go under. I think Mia has received way too much respect too early. I did not like how they looked in their bowl game last year. I know there are some hard core ACC fans on this post…since I am not one…would be interested to get another opinion on Miami’s schedule and how they could possibly win 9 games. I just don’t see it, but I may be missing something.
by team total guru on Jul 27, 2010 7:26 PM EDT reply actions
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