Monday Morning Tomahawks 07.20.10: How did Vegas see the 'Noles in previous years?

And agree with FrankD below, this at least should be MMT: Tuesday Edition.

If that lucks runs over to this season, then I would say 9 wins. But 8 wins sounds most likely.

You argue not to base expectations for the BYU game on last year but defend FO by stating they look at the last 2-4 years.

Then say you have FSU as a heavy favorite.

I agree we beat BYU heavily but got confused by your reasoning here.

It’s my understanding that they took last season’s data and then made a formula to predict last season’s results. They got 16 right. There was no predicting involved at all. I doubt very much they get 16/20 right this year unless they tweak their formula again AFTER the season to “retro-predict” the 2010 season.

for every 4.5 years gone by that the head coach should have been shown the door?

Extremely difficult to answer. Which is why I want to jump on it, LOL.

I think you have to factor in, somewhat subjectively, what you think the changes are worth. Over the years, there have been so very many close losses where poor clock and game management, I thought, ended up hurting the FSU team. I can go back to the FSU/UF game in 1979 when Coach Bowden was calling the plays and point to the end of the first half where wasted timeouts nearly cost the Noles a TD right before the half.

That said, my guess is, a more organized, quicker thinking sideline is going to pay dividends for FSU almost immediately. I hope (and somewhat expect) to have a much smarter football team pretty quickly. One that will recognize situations better, one that won’t panic like agains um in 1991 and rush a field goal on third down, etc.

Guys that are strictly objective become “football accountants,” as opposed to true evaluators, seems to me.

There are times when throwing the ball deep on 3rd and six inches might be a great play and yet, objectively running the QB sneak is probably the thing to do, every time.

One aspect I want to see on defense is the understanding that there are different levels of success in stopping your opponent. It seemed like our feeling was, “if they don’t score this drive, the defense won.” And that’s not always so. If your opponent starts out on their five and gets three first downs such that they punt from, say their own 40, I don’t call that a defensive win, not really.

That’s where I think we improve very quickly. And that’s where I think we can win some close ones that we’ve let get away in the past. At least, I hope so.

how would you account for that. Seems to be the most accurate way is not to guess at it.

It probably does not have much impact most times.

When is the last UM/FSU game where, the team you thought would win, won?

For me, it’s 2004. And that one, if FSU is smarter, FSU wins. So, then I have to go back to 2002 when the team I thought would win, won. And in that one, again, FSU “had” it and gave it away.

The last time that the time that I thought would win, won, in this series was 2001. That’s how crazy it’s been.

For a long time, both teams had losing records against the other at home. Absolutely bizarre.

e.g.., OL & DL most likely, etc. But these are just probabilities, and for FSU an injury at RB wouldn’t hurt as much as an injury at Safety.

p.s. Ponder won’t be making any tackles in 2010.

And that’s why depth “dude, they’ve had four of the sickest defensive classes in a row” makes UF/OU/OSU and the like have higher win probabilities against their competition.

Same with FSU vs. Wake/MD

We’re already recruiting phenomenally. Not an issue. The BYU game is your indicator? Really? How about let’s focus on trying to win the division. That’s step one.

USF…

With Bowden the last ten years, for every game FSU beat a better opponent they would lose to 3 lesser opponents. Think. Wake Forest. South Florida. Maryland. NC State.

The joys of having an undisciplined team.

Your comments and insight are found to be quite valuable. I suppose I did not truly realize the importance of winning as a College Football Coach. Since arriving in Tallahassee, I have been helping my wife shop for draperies, compare paint chips, and choose between a subway tile or metalic backsplash in the kitchen. But, I promise you from this day forward, I will be coaching. Yessir, no more browsing at Ikea; no more antiquing; no more shopping for new crown moulding. Instead, I will assume the position in the tower and in the golf cart.

Again, I cannot thank you enough for expressing to me the importance of coaching as a college football coach. I can honestly say now, “I get it.”

Warmest Regards,

Jimbo

Think Alabama 2007, from 7-6 to 12-2. Saban and staff preached player commitment to a system which would eventually bring results.

We’re on the same page collegeboy. If you check my win shares for this season it was 6.7 pre-Parker and Austin impacts.

I was making a comment that even a 6-6 season in 2010 doesn’t completely ruin the foundation for long-term success, as I stated that Bama accepted failure in short-term because the coaches/players were focused on the necessary changes that would produce success in the long(er) term.

I totally just saw the air leaving your body like you got punched. “Eff it, I give up.” Way to keep the blood pressure down big guy.

no question.