The above chart shows first-year quarterbacks who led their team to a top-5 finish. I posted this today to make a point. I've seen many 'Noles here and elsewhere forecasting failure for UF because they are replacing a very accomplished QB with a very talented, 4th-year backup. The bottom line is that FSU fans cannot doubt UF's brantley if they plan to tout E.J. Manuel In 2012. Both replace one of the best quarterbacks in school history. Both do so as red-shirt juniors. Both were highly touted four-star recruits. Both have some experience. Brantley has had 4 Spring practices, while Manuel will have had only 2 (injuries), but Manuel will have thrown about 40 more passes.
If Manuel has an advantage in 2011 that Brantley likely will not have this season, it is that the FSU defense will likely return 9 starters. H/t Doc
Note: I do not endorse using total offense or scoring offense as a performance measure because it doesn't account for opponent quality or garbage time, but the audience for which that author writes is about as dumb as CFB readers come. I know our readers are much smarter.
over 1 year ago
Bud Elliott
29 comments
0 recs |
Email
PrintComments
The QB is the leader of the team. Their success, whther it's fair or not, is determined by the performance of the team overall.
The kicker here is like you said, the Florida defense. Florida loses DC Charlie Strong along a slew of players on the defense. For that reason alone, many people are predicting Brantley to “struggle.”
I think Brantley will have good, solid, overall numbers, but no Tebow like numbers. The soft schedule they face should help his cause, so is it realistic to think the Gators defense won’t be up to par this season, considering the teams they will be playing?
Charlie Strong will be sorely missed.
Maybe the Gators will be more dangerous than they seem to me this year. But something seems amiss. I think there’s too much coaching turn over on both sides of the ball, but especially on defense. Last season, it was Strong’s defense that kept them in many football games. With the staff changes and instability at the very top, who knows where the program will go?
On the flip side, even with coaching changes, the weight of sheer talent might tip the scales in their favor. The 2nd year OC Addazio may have a better fit with Brantley because Tebow seemed lost sometimes. I think Tebow missed Mullen. And Meyer may be crazy, but he’s still a good coach.
I think this quote from the article speaks volumes: “Very few first-year starters – only 13 in the last decade – have managed to do what Brantley will be expected to do this fall by leading their team to a top-five finish in the polls. And not all of them were all that spectacular in the process.” So, one in five. I like those odds.
Sheriff Branford: The fact that you are a sheriff is not germane to the situation.
Buford T. Justice: The god damn Germans got nothin' to do with it!
I think Strong's strength (pun intended) was recruiting, moreso than the technical.
And unfortunately they’ve still got gobs of talent.
This list covers the last ten years...
So it doesn’t include the several FSU QBs who accomplished this: Willis (89), Ward (92), Kanell (94), Busby (96), Weinke (98). And this doesn’t not count the Johnson/Weldon combo (90) or Chip Ferguson (88; I think he started some games in a previous season).
It’s probably too early to talk about uf’s demise…
The other part of the article this comes from
shows what makes or breaks a team breaking in a new QB is the performance of the defense. All of the above mentioned QBs had elite defenses as well. So uf’s season will hinge less on Brantley and more on the new starters on D. Playing Devil’s Advocate though, none of the above named players were replacing someone who was such an integral part of the scheme and had a skill set that they didn’t possess.
It might be similar to our transition from Ward to Kanell.
Definitely losing the heart of the team, but also physically losing some legs in favor of a (theoretically) better arm. We maintained an elite defense, but definitely took a step back.
Wow
tOSU was 70th in total offense in ’02. The D and the Nuge were huuuuge that year.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Jul 23, 2010 9:37 AM EDT reply actions
Neither OSU squad on that list appeared that good offensively.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
True
Can we get a list of first year quarterbacks that floundered?
by BenDNole on Jul 23, 2010 9:39 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
It should be noted...
To me, it should be noted that 7 of the teams from above had offenses ranked 30 or below on that list. What that tells me is the schedule was weak and they were able to win anyhow, or they had incredible defenses to overcome some offensive failures. In the case of Brantley, it is going to be somewhere in between to me. I think they will end up having a 3 loss season instead of top 5 finish, but not necessarily due to offense.
uf plays 2 high quality offenses this season
and one of those teams, us, has a big ? for a defense. Depending on what happens vs Bama uf can easily finish in the top 5.
by osceolafan2.0 on Jul 23, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope he becomes their "Chris Rix"
but he should be good and actually coached. Also wasn’t there reports out of the gator spring ball saying they were going to use another QB for short yardage situations? I forgot his name.
Based on the data
it’s possible to coach around inexperienced QBs… I’m sure having a great set of backs behind him doesn’t hurt.
Accountabilty is back in Tallahassee....
Which brings me to my point (and others have already made it)
If there is a good deal of talent around the QB, he will probably be just fine. The common denominator of all the QB’s listed is they all played for very strong programs. Other variables (SoS, strength of their D, coaching, scheme, etc.) also contributed to their success. I think UF loses 2-3 games this season and finishes in the top 10. I will leave it to Gator fans to determine if that is a failure or not.
Christian Ponder: Your favorite quarterback's favorite quarterback.
by Jamil Dawson on Jul 23, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
No worries, Bud.
I know that note wasn’t a jab at me. I think. Because I don’t give credit for garbage time, either. Try not to, anyway.
DISCLAIMER: Everything posted by DutchFSU operates under the premise that Christian Ponder remains healthy during the entire 2010 football season. As well as the entire Seminole offensive line, most of the cheerleaders, and quite a few of those seated in the student section. Maybe even a hot dog vendor.
Not a jab at you
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
Hopefully i'll avoid the 15 yard "piling on" penalty
Kelley brought up in another post. Btw, Kelley, great job on personal responsability in the agents thread! I looked at total offense on the chart and guys it looks like(to me) a top 10 defense and a wimp schedule counts for a bunch. I make no predictions when new coaches, (whole staffs especially), are changed. Same with Q.B.,s. Brantly may be the next Marino, or he may be average. I do agree with one poster though that with the vast pool of raw talent in hogville, if Oiban stays the course they will kick some tail. I must at least throw in here though that in 30 some years of watching, i’ve seen many highly reguarded players fail to live up to expectations.Several, sadly, were Noles. By the same token, lets not forget how many vereran QB.S had a great year one year and average the next.Lets just take care of our own business and see where we wind up.
p.s. Kelley?? I wouldnt waste a scholarship on the usc guy either. lol
GO NOLES
I'm not sure if you chose Ken Dorsey or that chart was from another source
I’m not sure I’d have included him as he started 3 games at the end of the 1999 season. I know it’s semantics on my part.
To be fair, several other players on that chart started some games in previous years as well.
"The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary." Vince Lombardi
"We'll win games with talent, we'll win championships with character." Jimbo Fisher
While I definitely don't think Brantley should be overlooked
Manuel has proven A LOT more. He’s won 3 games. Brantley hasn’t won squat yet. So he performed well in mop up duty. La-Di-Da. Manuel beat a pretty talented West Virginia team.
Brantley is no doubt talented, but Manuel’s been in pressure situations already.
we do not use "games won" here to measure players here.
Do not fall into that trap.
TEAMS win games. Judge a player on his performance.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
But he did show flashes in meaningful snaps
granted against Maryland (3 INTs) and FL he didn’t look ready to beat the world, but he marginally impressed me. I mean, as a RS Frosh he could have easily crapped the bed and had us go 0-3 over the final 3 and not even make a bowl (yes, I know, no judging on wins). I’m just saying he did perform admirably in his only real opportunity to perform, albeit against some subpar opponents.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
I was impressed by his play. Agreed.
Just saying that it is important not to use wins to judge a QB. Winning is a team endeavor. Who is the winningiest guard? Punter?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
I think Manuel and Brantley came in with similar levels of talent.
Both were top 50-ish recruits. Manuel has more mobility while Brantley has the more polished mechanics.
That said, I think Manuel may have a better opportunity to succeed. Looking back at Meyer’s last highly-touted but non-running QB (Leak), he performed very well, but was not an All American caliber player. He earned a championship due to UF’s defensive dominance moreso than their offensive capacity that year. They struggled on many occassions on offense during his senior season.
Manuel, on the other hand, has a tool kit that his coach has already proven very adept at molding. There is no reason to believe he will not be able to achieve the type of success that J. Russell or Ponder were able to achieve.
So, while a sample size of 1 (Leak) isn’t enough to entirely hang your hat on, there is at least some potential that Meyer may not be able to get the most out of a more traditional passing attack. And without baby Tebow to come in and convert 3rd or 4th and shorts, their offense might even struggle more than it did in 2006. Time will tell.
Valid point
but I feel like for a QB it’s a bit different. Your QB is your leader, and when he struggles or lacks confidence it can definitely rub off on the rest of the team. I agree it is surely a team effort, but it does say something to his skills to be able to step into a very volatile situation (bowl streak on the line, Bowden drama, etc.) and have a solid performance.
So, an unproven QB stepped into our starting lineup and performed well enough to go 3-1...
I imagine an unproven QB stepping into uf’s starting lineup could do well, too.
Brantley
Judging by the spring game, he seems to be real the deal, im no Gator Fan, but going 16-19 in any game is damn good. He might not have the legs of Tebow but his arm is way better, i expect things from him in Gainseville this fall, but I expect a little more from Ponder
Why is that a positive for him and not a negative for the D?
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Have to assume Brantley will be solid.
To think otherwise you need blinders. The questions for the Gators will be…
Does the Defense stay dominant?
What are they doing for short yardage?
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
SHOP THE TOMAHAWK NATION STORE
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
