Predict The 2010 Florida State Football Season: July Edition
by RaysnNoles on Jul 26, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
in FSU Football
Email
Print
Back in May of last year Bud wrote about how professional gamblers assign probabilities to each game to go about predicting the season. This is an exercise we like to run to manage expectations and show how difficult it truly is to win 10 games or more in college football, especially if a team is not favored in all of its games.
It just so happens I have a friend of mine who is a professional gambler. He has a day job, but he makes his living betting sports like a day trader plays the stock market, complete with a healthy dose of arbitrage. Every year since my freshman year of college, we've gotten together and broken down the upcoming season, and we have a method. We call it "proportional win shares". You can call it whatever you want, but I think you'll see how it's more effective than simply assigning "win" or "loss" to the games.
The idea is simple: assign a winning % to each game. For instance, you could say that FSU has an 80% chance of beating Maryland (0.80), or that they have a 20% chance to beat UF (0.20).
Now, I think it is fair to say that many around here know the drill, but Tomahawk Nation has grown drastically since last year and we want to give everyone a shot. We will conduct this exercise 3 or 4 times before the opening kickoff, so don't think you are too tied to the numbers. We just want to get a feel for how everyone is approaching the season thus far. It should be very interesting to track the changes in the optimism (or pessimism) for the team and to determine whether any change in prediction is tied to a specific event. This is your chance to show us how good or bad you think Florida State will be!
In the recent weeks there has been lots of debate around the strength of our opponents, mainly Oklahoma. The thought that OU has an inexperienced QB and a defense that isn’t elite is just not true, before making predictions you need to do your homework and that can be accomplished by reviewing the links below.
Oklahoma: Beyond the Box Score Defensive Preview
Phil Steele’s Oklahoma Preview
Dr. Saturday: Why you are underrating Oklahoma
Podcast: Phil Steele Explains Why Oklahoma Sooners Are No. 1
Another point of discussion involving FSU’s opponents has been starting quarterbacks. A lot can change between now and August 16th but as of today Clemson’s Kyle Parker has still not signed a baseball contract and is slated to be their starting quarterback in 2010. Despite signing a pro baseball contract NCST QB Russell Wilson will be allowed to play quarterback this upcoming season which while this is still a game FSU should win it does make it more of a competitive match up. Lastly is the thought that UF’s John Brantley is going to struggle. Yes there will probably be some growing pains at first but remember FSU plays Florida in the 12th game of the season and by then he should have a good grasp on the offense. For further info on Brantley’s development read this FanShot.
Props to editor ricobert1 for creating this great survey, where you can select the chance FSU will win in each game and it will automatically fill in your proportional win shares! So read the article on proportional win shares, then take the survey! We'll unveil the results later this week but if you want to know your results today make sure to track your selections as you go and add up the totals at the end.
202 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Currently
Samford – 98.5
@ OU – 25.0
BYU – 80.0
Wake – 92.5
@ UVA – 77.5
@Miami – 40.0
BC – 60.0
@NCSU – 70.0
UNC – 55.0
CU – 55.0
@UMD – 82.5
UF – 32.5
= 7.685 and 5.325
>>---l>
I'm piggybacking on DK's work here
My evaluation is identical, outside of the fact that I drop UF down to about 25% or so.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman
my guess
Samford – 95
@ OU – 30
BYU – 65
Wake – 85
@ UVA – 80
@Miami – 55
BC – 55
@NCSU – 65
UNC – 60
CU – 55
@UMD – 80
UF – 35
by BeachBreakBuster on Jul 27, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Come on man
There’s a greater chance available for FSU to lose to UVA than to BC?
Is that really how the ’Noles fans view BC this year?
FYI:
The survey says @ UF.
For future renditions, would be very helpful to have the associated pt. spreads alongside the percentages.
Will try and make the edit re UF
For future renditions, would be very helpful to have the associated pt. spreads alongside the percentages.
We want to force readers to read previous articles and understand how they formulas work
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
I think the spreads juxtaposed alongside the %'s would actually be instructive/educational.
What’s the drawback there?
Make your own "point spreads"
You be Vegas. http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/5/19/879468/does-florida-state-have-the
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
Don't follow the bias thought...?
If people are going to use the chart, they’ll all come out with the same %’s.
Unless you’re expecting people to come up with their own +/- 245 type of equations and then re-engineer the %‘s off of that? Since they’re not actually putting money on the line, the concept of engineering a bet to induce realism seems counter-intuitive to me.
Just my two cents, anyway. You guys are the pros.
Bias shows up in couple of ways (to me, that is)
A) the spreadsheet itself limits your options — usually by 5% increments. So there’s a little methodological issue there. I do not believe it is severe, however.
B) Bias in that a lot of information and comments/opinions are put forward here at TN. Technically, that’s bias. But again, not a big deal — because we believe what we’re saying!
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st downs against the run. And pass. And 2nd down. And 3rd down. Ok, dammit, whenever our D is on the field.
Oh, wait, I completely misunderstood
Thank you. I agree with your recommendation. I will see what I can do.
You posters are awesome.
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st downs against the run. And pass. And 2nd down. And 3rd down. Ok, dammit, whenever our D is on the field.
Ah, glad my thinking was not coming from homer-ville, doesn't understand process-ville,
or any of the other persona non grata-ville’s.
I also think you "compressed" the results (im sure it was intentional) a lot by limiting some of the options on certain games.
Samford not withstanding.
Giddy-up!
I understand the reasoning behind it and I read the emails, but I disagree with setting some of the upper limits allowed on certain games which we are not favored.
I’m not saying I would vote for higher %‘s than any of the ones presented, I just disagree with limiting everyone’s choices and creating a bias in the results.
Again, I read the emails and I understand the logic, but who are we (any of us) to say that the max for OU is 55% and the max for UM is 60%. Not trying to start a controversy, and not criticizing any of the authors or staff, just explaining why I think this is flawed. Does Vegas set limits as to which way someone is allowed to bet, regardless of ridiculous it may be to them?
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
It's directly related to Bud and Rays tolerance towards blind homerism
or blatant stupidity. Once the idiots are at bay, it’ll open up again.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman
Intolerance?
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
Never mind, as I read on I see this issue has already been addressed by others.
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
9-3
Not gunna put percentages down for each game here. But I think we loose to OU, UF, and either Miami or UNC but not both, and we go into the ACC championship game with one conference loss. But then I’m basing this on Stoops ability to turn our defense around faster than expected, which I think he will do. =)
Fear the mind of the FSU fan
I think he means he's not going to write them down here in the comments section
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
i think he doesnt buy into the win shares method and just guess w/l
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Jul 26, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
You are totally missing the purpose of this excercise
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
just did it
Fear the mind of the FSU fan
by Will_The_Nole on Jul 26, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Compare your above prediction with your win share totals
Conference Wins: 5.925
Toal Wins: 8.235
Interesting, no?
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
Not really
I understand the point of this exercise but college football is, imo, beyond the numbers to an extent. With Jimbo Fisher stressing consistency and Stoops improving the D each week, I’d put my money on my initial prediction over the prediction of my percentages added up. But, we’ll see =)
Fear the mind of the FSU fan
by Will_The_Nole on Jul 26, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Look at it this way
Your gut says 9-3 overall, but your win shares say an 8-4 performance is more likely.
Your gut also says 1 ACC loss heading into the championship game – but your conference win shares put you just a tad under 6 conference wins.
The question is: Why the difference? (besides the fact that they represent two different methodologies) Interesting, at the very least.
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st downs against the run. And pass. And 2nd down. And 3rd down. Ok, dammit, whenever our D is on the field.
Percentages
because percentages don’t account for momentum and/or off days. The only reason I put some of my percentages so low on some is because you can never factor in all the possibilities. I believe we come out of the starting block with something to prove, because we do. The momentum of hope and determination is not factored into probabilities and that is why my prediction for the season is stronger than my percentages for each game added up.
Fear the mind of the FSU fan
by Will_The_Nole on Jul 26, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Why can't they?
If you think momentum, extra rest, etc. will be a factor, why not adjust your percentage to show it? We do.
>>---l>
by DKfromVA on Jul 26, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
agree, and maybei misunderatand,
The choices are so marrow as to make this thing irrelevant. Personally, I think two or three of the choices are too limiting. If you think I am ignorant, I challenge you to post those percentages after the season.
We posted them last year and predicted 7-5
I am sure you had 9-3
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
Which ones are too limiting?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
My predictions
Sat, Sep 4 99.9% Samford
Sat, Sep 11 37.5% at OU
Sat, Sep 18 92.5% BYU
Sat, Sep 25 95.0% Wake
Sat, Oct 2 92.5% at UVA
Sat, Oct 9 50.0% at UM
Sat, Oct 16 70% BC
Thu, Oct 28 85.0% at NC St
Sat, Nov 6 65.0% UNC
Sat, Nov 13 77.5% Clem
Sat, Nov 20 92.5% at MD
Sat, Nov 27 37.5% UF
8.9 Total
FSU Football: United We Stand
Have you at 9.095 and 6.425
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
from the spread sheet or from what i posted
spreadsheet uses different numbers.
also on the spreadsheet the options are limited as far as chioces and it can skew the results. IE boston college we can only choose 50% and up
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Jul 26, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
No worries. The spreadsheet options have some values to the thousandths place (.675) - just result of rounding.
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st downs against the run. And pass. And 2nd down. And 3rd down. Ok, dammit, whenever our D is on the field.
FSU being a 9 point fave against BC is unrealistic at this point in time
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
no matter how you sell it, it adds bias to the spreadsheet
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Jul 26, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
We want readers to have their own input
But it has to be realistic
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
the problem is who decides what it realistic
and that is how it becomes biased.
its not like i needed any of the lower numbers but it just struck me as odd.
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Jul 26, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought that was incredibly odd and blatantly biased.
I thought the purpose of this was to see what the fans’ expectations were. Instead, they’re trying to make the fans’ expectations fall in line with their own.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
I agree here...you have to let morons be morons.
Giddy-up!
by truecolors on Jul 26, 2010 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
All good feedback we will consider before running the next installment
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
Besides,
When it comes time to compile the numbers…I don’t think anyone here has a problem with you throwing out ridiculous outliers.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 26, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Throwing out rediculous numbers is perhaps a job
for a standard deviation study.
That is what his 70% shows
How could a favorite to win the division be more than a touchdown underdog against another division opponent
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
Valid point
But to think that we are that much better than them is undervaluing them
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
I think we'll beat them by 2 TDs.
Even the most basic fundamental proficiency by our DEs (i.e., no free 5 yard plays on zone read) + added weight across the front 7 might remove 50% of their yardage over the past couple years. We should really beat them handily.
I really fail to understand hope people think we are going to just mow through teams coming off of the season we just had
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
Against a team that has made us their whipping boy on the line of scrimmage
Two years in a row. I don’t get it either.
>>---l>
It took a complete lack of defense for BC to beat us.
An average defense completely turns the game on its head. BC’s offense was (and should be) pedestrian.
While an optimist, I’m really not a raging FSU homer — quite the contrary, I just have very little respect for what many of these ACC teams have accomplished, specifically against the FSU of the past.
BC is a team with an mediocre ball control offense and a extremely well schemed, though not particularly athletic, defense. However, their defense no longer has Raji & crew wrecking our interior fresh-soph OL as in ’08, and our defense will not be hamstrung by a complete lack of discipline as in ’09. In fact, the tables might be turned this year, as both DTs are under 300 lbs and both DEs are under 250 lbs, in addition to 2 freshman LBs listed at 200 and 220 lbs, respectively. Our beefed up road graders are going to give them a taste of their own medicine.
There is no reason to believe we will not reproduce or exceed our 400 yard performance of ’09 against their defense, while I can categorically predict that they WILL NOT reproduce their 400 yard performance of ’09, or their 360 yard performance of ’08, and Montel Harris will not have anything resembling 180 yards. (Though my prediction is intuitive, I think this would be supported by comparing their average offensive output against “middle-of-the-pack” defenses, which I expect ours to be.)
I hadn’t even mentioned the differentials we should expect in RB play with Gran on board. I believe that game’s catastrophic failure last year was what sealed Dexter Carter’s fate.
In sum, a lot has changed between 08, 09, and 10.
So FSU is the only team in that game that will improve?
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
Are you suggesting they have more positive variables of change in their favor?
I’m not arguing in absolutes; I’m arguing that the margins of change between two teams that performed comparably last year will not be of the same magnitude.
That last depth chart had some errors (had classes wrong, at least) so I’m pulling a different source to make another point. They are likely to fall well below the happy side of the 1800 mark. As listed in that link, the projected starters weigh in at 1711 pounds. Even if you take the best case scenario (take the heavier of any two guys at any position, and add 5 pounds across the board), they weigh in at 1807. TN itself earlier projected they’d ring in at 1756 lbs. That’s towards the bottom of the class in the ACC/SEC pool. Doesn’t that sound like a recipe for trouble against “the most efficient rushing attack in the NCAA,” that has certifiably added a lot of mass, strength, coaching, and experience between this year and last?
Beyond that… they lost their 1st and 3rd leading receivers. They lost 6 of 12 starters from last year’s defense, including 3 of top 6 tacklers. I’ll give it to you, I am discounting one factor.. if Herzlich returns to the team at a level of performance similar to when he last played… then we only beat them by a touchdown.
Need I go into the objective talent differentials? Unless “stars don’t matter,” I’d say that is significantly in our favor, as well.
BC impressively over-achieved last year much to everyone’s surprise, and I do have a lot of respect for their defensive staff. Could that happen again? Possibly… but after 7 games, our defense should have ripened enough that this should not be a very tight contest. There are simply a host of reasons to believe this is a team moving in one direction, while Florida State is moving in another.
You expect our defense to be "have ripened" after 7 games?
They are learning a whole new defense, expecting them to be in the top half of teams by then are lofty expectations
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
They won't be sugar sweet, but certainly not as bitter as game 1...
….much less last year.
I’ve discussed dynamics of the timeline before… I think they’ll start off playing like a top 80 defense… and be performing like a top 30 defense by season’s end… so 7 games in, maybe top 50-60.
We will improve more
but they were much better than us to start with. And their offense should improve a bunch.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
I'll still bet they field a top 10 defense
Against our top 10 offense. I am not willing to say that because of the performance we saw from the offense in last year’s game that it will be reproduced this season. As far as their O against our D, I hope we have the edge, but I don’t think it will be a drastic one. They completely shut down their offense in the third quarter last season and bled clock. I think we have the edge in special teams, and that playing at home will help, so I have that game at 60% at this point. I do not believe we will roll to an easy victory by any means. As an aside, I believe that this is by far the most important game on the schedule this season.
>>---l>
I think "shutting down" their offense was playing to their strength.
If they “opened things up,” they risked pulling a UNC and putting the game back into our hands. (And actually tried their best to do so late, though G5 missed the opportunity.)
It was certainly a calculated risk
Make our offense come back to beat their top 10 defense in the rain and don’t give them any help by way of turnovers. Multiple teams adopted that strategy for the 3rd quarter against us last season. I don’t think, though, that this game is indicative of what will happen this season. Two different football teams on a different stage.
>>---l>
I agree that it won't be a repeat scenario.
2009 box score here. I don’t think Ponder will have to throw the ball 42 times, for instance, and I do not think they will hold us to 79 rushing yards. If we come up with 400 as I suspect we will, i think it will come by way of a balanced 250/150 type of performance. I think our offensive line will be much more capable of dictating the flow of this game for reasons specified above. The outcome will again be a high level of production, but with more points on the board.
It also occurs to me that Ponder was decidedly gimpy in this game after the reported injury @BYU and then the successive beating he took vs. USF. That’s another factor that could really swing things further in our direction.
Don't mean to be too late to the discussion
Can somebody please show me, using proportional win shares, how BC is the favorite to win the Atlantic. I constantly see that a lot of people say that. I’d like to see it backed up with percentages, just like we expect everyone to back up the FSU predictions with percentages.
I have FSU, BC, and Clem all within .4 ACC wins
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
Not how it works
Regular season only. Can’t predict who we’ll play post-season. What were your survey totals?
>>---l>
shoot, forgot to keep count of mine
but it’s probably better that way. Not too sure about what kind of teams Wake, UVA, MD, and NC St. are supposed to have. All I know is that I expect to win all of them.
5.475 7.735
Conference || Total
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st downs against the run. And pass. And 2nd down. And 3rd down. Ok, dammit, whenever our D is on the field.
Samford – 100
@ OU – 25.0
BYU – 74
Wake – 76
@ UVA – 88
@Miami – 74
BC – 63
@NCSU – 85
UNC – 65
CU – 45
@UMD – 90
UF – 35
= 8.21 and 5.87
Of the 4 dangerous ACC games, Miami, BC, UNC, and Clemson, I see Miami being the one that will be easiest. Miami’s home field advantage is really trumped up. And Miami will be coming off two weeks @ Pitt and @Clemson while FSU is coming off of Wake and @ Virginia. I don’t see Miami’s offense being much better then it was last year, nor their defense.
FSU’s offense > miami’s improvement on defense.
FSU’s defensive improvement > miami’s offensive improvement.
Throw in the fact that the last 3 year’s have basically been coin flips and it seems to me that this game is one that FSU can and should win. I’m less concerned about this game then UNC, Clemson, or BC. I think those three games will be bigger and tougher games then Miami.
I discounted our chances (40%) mainly because of historic considerations,
A variety of odd turnovers and special teams oddities will probably determine the outcome.
However, if Jimbo has proven anything, it is that he can put up points on a Randy Shannon defense — in a wide variety of ways. LSU ground attack, FSU w/ Xavier Lee (and all that that entails), Ponder’s legs, then Ponder’s arm. It is almost hard to see us scoring less than 30.
So the question really becomes, does our defense hold them to 4 TDs? It is late enough in the season that we could have a decent shot. Jacory’s arm is not going to be any stronger, so if we get any pressure I feel good about the outcome.
I agree 100% DK
Miami has sick talent this year. I think they’ll be our biggest ACC challenge.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman
they always seem to be
regardless of talent
Team Gold!
by garnetandgold on Jul 26, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that's a great analysis
Fear the mind of the FSU fan
by Will_The_Nole on Jul 26, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I got hammered on here last time we did this for saying we had a better shot to beat Florida than Miami
I still think that we have a better shot at beating Florida than Miami this year. I’ll go with 58.5 vs Florida. 44.0 @ Miami. 36.5 @ Oklahoma
GO NOLES!!! SCALP EM!
I like it
Insane. But I like it.
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st downs against the run. And pass. And 2nd down. And 3rd down. Ok, dammit, whenever our D is on the field.
I still think it's pretty ridiculous.
And I will until some reasons are given on why that theory is being employed.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman
Miami didn't lose a ton of coaches, 10+ starters & the best player in their history..
Also Miami had the #1 2007 recruiting class in the nation & we play them on the road. Those are just a few reasons.
GO NOLES!!! SCALP EM!
Florida has had significantly better
A) Recruiting
2) Coaching
D) Development
Than Florida State for the last 4 years. It isn’t close. Hopefully we’re starting to close the gap, but in no way should we be favored to beat UF this season. There’s a reason the Vegas under/over on them is still 10 wins for this year.
>>---l>
7.85; 5.43
I got 7.85 wins (rounded up from 7.845) and 5.43 ACC wins (rounded up from 5.425) I think this aligns accurately with my expectations, as I expect to win 7 or 8 games this season with the difficult schedule.
7.735
The problem is, I know I’ll be disappointed if we go 8-4,even though I shouldn’t be.
By the way, an interesting excercise ...
What do your win percentages for Games 3-12 look like if we were to BEAT Oklahoma?
What if I said it depends on how we beat them?
That is, did we get into a shootout? Or did our D actually make some stops?
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st downs against the run. And pass. And 2nd down. And 3rd down. Ok, dammit, whenever our D is on the field.
If Our D holds OU to 28 or below
It will change everything for me.
Christian Ponder: Your favorite quarterback's favorite quarterback.
by Jamil Dawson on Jul 26, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Barring a Landry Jones injury or a ridiculous turnover situation, correct?
Points in and of themselves shouldn’t matter all that much. If Jones gets hurt, or OU makes dumb mistakes, but otherwise torches the defense, I won’t feel better at all.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman
I'd rather not revisit this discussion again.
It got out of control last time we approached this subject.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman
I dont think it changes them much.
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Jul 26, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Total Wins=7.695
Conf Wins=5.225
What does it say about me that all my win totals are actually going down each time i do this as the months go by? not dropping by a lot, but my first runthrough a couple of months ago i had us winning 7.95 games.
Not sure
Mine did too a bit.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
IMO
Carr will be back for OU, if he is still the starter
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Jul 26, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Will he still be practicing with the team with pending felonies?
Don’t recall how that’s treated.. but if he’s missing weeks of practice, then surely he won’t be starting at that point.
I went down with my kool-aid intake:
the more pre-season stuff I read, I more I realize this schedule is a ball-buster.
Samford – 99.5
@ OU – 35.0
BYU – 70.0
Wake – 82.5
@ UVA – 87.5
@Miami – 45.0
BC – 60.0
@NCSU – 70.0
UNC – 65.0
CU – 55.0
@UMD – 82.5
UF – 42.5
"You're either carrying a spear, or running from it"
by BigSpearDiplomacy on Jul 26, 2010 1:44 PM EDT reply actions
ridiculous
outlier
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 26, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
The Chi version 2.0
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
I saw the chi on an AC blog post
Wasnt sure if it was someone being funny but it was a direct quote of one of teh current members on here
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Jul 26, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
My .02
Samford – 99.9
@ OU – 30
BYU – 87.5
Wake – 85
@ UVA – 75
@Miami – 50
BC – 67
@NCSU – 80
UNC – 75
CU – 70.0
@UMD – 85
UF – 35
I think BC will give us issues due to their discipline and talent levels. Alot of folks are going to underestimate them, but by the time we play them, there should be enough film for this staff to put together a good game plan. But coming out of what will be a rough and tough UM game won’t be easy, and could be an emotional let down.
Chop it up Seminoles!
Still have BC has a touchdown dog though
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
I think we actually run the ball on BC this year and we control the game win by 2 touchdowns
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Jul 26, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Whatever my totals are please add .5 wins for swagger advantage over our opponents.
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
Your's somehow came out to 12.5 wins
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
Please don't be hatin'.
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
The fact you have FSU as a bigger favortie to beat UF than Clemson makes it hard not to
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
Isn't that what makes this fun?
My grandmama used to tell me, “Opinions are just like rectums, every a$$hole has one,”
so if my opinion does not conform with the majority, go ahead and call me Mr. Rectum.
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
Tha'ts what the Gators and GT did to the Noles last year when our defense didn't stay at home.
Mr. Rectum.
Rectum? Damn near killed 'em.
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st downs against the run. And pass. And 2nd down. And 3rd down. Ok, dammit, whenever our D is on the field.
by ricobert1 on Jul 27, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You really have to put your own spin on everything dont you...
Bring back Peter Tom Willis— a true Nole! -FiestaNole
Samford 99.8
@ OU 20
BYU 80
Wake 90
@ UVA 95
@Miami 55
BC 55
@NCSU 65
UNC 60
CU 55
@UMD 85
UF 25
7.848 || 5.6
How is that not reasonable?
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
We do
OU is probably better than UF and it is an early road game.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
I missed the last one of these
Plus, I kind of lost interest when nobody could show me how they decided that a x point underdog loses y % of the time.
I understand it’s likely just collected history of games played, but I’d still like to see it before I believe it.
Does that part really matter? It was just to give folks perspective.
I believe I linked it in the last one. All we’re asking for is to give a %
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
Didn't add mine up
but they look pretty similar to a lot of peoples’.
Where's Dan Kendra when you need him?
% of the first 100 participants who thought FSU had a 50% chance or better against their opponent
@ OU – 12%
@Miami – 54%
UNC – 98%
CU – 99%
UF – 14%
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
Well they didnt have a choice
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
um... i just beat unc 35-0 on ps3
with 373 total yards offense and 111 yards allowed by the d so… you may wan to adjust your predictions accordingly…
Team Gold!
he probably got it on the ebays
FSU Football: United We Stand
by stevegrizzle on Jul 26, 2010 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
This is really the direction TN needs to start going with its analysis
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st downs against the run. And pass. And 2nd down. And 3rd down. Ok, dammit, whenever our D is on the field.
I think that I got 8.395 for a total. Base ten is not my forte.
I bumped our chances against BYU, (lost their very good running back) and UNC (losing Austin et. al. probably).
what?
use comon sense her damn numbers don’t mean any thing if mark stoops is worth one defensive stop a game fsu will be 10-2 at worst if hes worth it one more stop in every game last year but one fsu would have ben 21-1
WRONG! If we are 11-1 or 12-0 at the end of the regular season we will play in the ACCCG AND a bowl, so please change it to 13-1 or 12-2.
Geez, some people just don’t get it.
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
Excellent catch Frank
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
Undefeated
Ponder wins the Heisman. National Champs!
Why not dream big?
by NoleySmokes on Jul 26, 2010 9:51 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I've been let down before.
I’m a big boy. And I have watched this team for 25 years.
by NoleySmokes on Jul 26, 2010 9:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
A note for fun.
I was sort of thinking about this from an expectations standpoint. Once the numbers are in I expect to be on the relatively low side of the group.
The first thing I asked myself was “Do we have better raw talent than the opposing team?”
The best source for this is probably rivals or other recruiting rankings. Then I figured maybe I could make an index of the last 4 years’ recruiting classes, weighing the classes from four, three, and two years ago most heavily (6, 5.5, and 4), with a very low weight on last year’s class (1) as those who’ve been around the program longer should be bigger contributors on the field in general and freshmen should have little impact. This sort of puts into perspective where we stand against the other team in terms of raw talent when looking across the schedule. I know this is error prone, and I could play with indexes a lot of different ways, but it’s a quick way to look at raw talent without digging in to every team. So I put together a spreadsheet and looked at it two different ways – average stars*class size, and rivals rank. Then I used our index number as a base and valued the other teams’ indexes as a percentage of ours. Again this is flawed but just for perspective.
Here’s the spreadsheet:
Some general comments on this: Florida is way ahead of us and everyone else on our schedule. To think we are even in the same league looking at talent alone is dead wrong. There’s no way you should be calling a 50 percent chance of victory for this game. The talent difference is ridiculous. Not to mention all units have been receiving quality coaching, which won’t factor into my measurement but is a huge factor to consider – an advantage on the defensive side of the ball for the best 5 teams we play for sure.
Depending on which way you look at it, Oklahoma and Miami are pretty much even with us on the index. For both teams, one system put them slightly above us and one slightly below. Again, it is difficult to call either of these games above 50 percent on pure talent alone, and the coaching difference on defense the last two years has to play in somehow. Maybe you could make the argument that our offense will be a neutralizer. We sit slightly above UNC and Clemson on these indexes, roughly 10 percent better in terms of average class stars.
Just something to chew on.
by Aussierat on Jul 26, 2010 10:02 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Not finished reading, but this should be its own fanpost.
I’ve been curious to see cumulative talent levels laid out like this for a long time.
I think that's the case for 2007-09
I pulled them from the site in February with the exception of 2010 which I pulled tonight. I thought of this but didn’t mention above.
Something else to chew on ...
and just a bit of a caveat. This is purely based on ratings on these kids coming out of high school. It doesn’t account for the development while part of the college team. That’s not much comfort for us Noles though, as our program is only now coming into the present with S&C, nutrition, etc. Odds are the gap of pure talent is even slightly wider than it appears, as most of these schools have better developed their athletes than we have.
Great work on the analysis, you really should break that into its own fanpost.
Absolutely right.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
This is really good work.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
Has anyone done a proportional win share on BC
I know we see them as the favorite, just wondering if anyone has any realistic projections for their season.
Here’s my list:
VT – 30%
NCSt – 65%
FSU – 40%
Mary – 80%
Clemson – 50%
WF – 90%
Duke – 90%
UVa – 80%
Conference wins for them would equal 5.25
I think most non-homer fans are picking upper 5’s for FSU. At least > 5.25. Are my percentages way off, or are we giving BC too much credit by making them favorites?
Bud has done it for the Atlantic division
If I remember correctly he had BC at about 1/2 win less than FSU, I’m sure he can share when he has time
Wants to live in a world where Batting Average goes the way of the Dodo!
ok thanks
It seems like even the most arduent proportional win share supporters (not naming any specifically) tend to only apply it to FSU, saying a two loss FSU team could still come up short of the ACCCG due to BC’s schedule, even though BC’s proportional win share is clearly less than FSU’s (closer to 5-3, than 6-2…. at least according to my calculations)
Ran my numbers for Clemson
Miami – 40%
UNC – 50%
Mary – 80%
GT – 45%
BC – 50%
NCSt – 70%
FSU – 45%
Wake – 90%
Win total for Clemson = 4.7
Not sure about these percentages either. Are they realistic?
Mine for Clemson. ACC only
50.0% UM
40.0% at UNC
92.5% MD
57.5% GT
50.0% at BC
90.0% NC State
37.5% at FSU
80.0% at WF
4.98
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
Think I would have to bump them down on Miami. Say 30-40 Percent.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Jul 31, 2010 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions
ACC only.
45.0% VT
67.5% at NC State
35.0% at FSU
87.5% MD
50.0% Clem
77.5% at WF
77.5% at Duke
87.5% UVA
5.28
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
mark it down
Samford 0.995
OU 0.35
BYU 0.8
Wake 0.875
UVA 0.925
Miami 0.45
BC 0.7
NC ST 0.75
UNC 0.6
CLEM 0.65
MARY 0.925
UF 0.325
8.345
Prediction
Samford 95%
at Oklahoma 20%
BYU 75%
WF 80%
at UVA 80%
at Miami 41%
BC 65%
at N.C. State 77%
UNC 55%
Clemson 60%
at Maryland 87%
UF 22%
Overall: 7.57
ACC: 5.45
Very Similar to guy above me
Samford 95%
at Oklahoma 25%
BYU 75%
WF 80%
at UVA 90%
at Miami 50%
BC 50%
at N.C. State 75%
UNC 60%
Clemson 50%
at Maryland 80%
UF 25%
Overall: 7.55
Here's mine. Sorry I am late
99.9% Samford
25.0% at OU
82.5% BYU
92.5% Wake
80.0% at UVA
40.0% at UM
65.0% BC
75.0% at NC St
60.0% UNC
60.0% Clem
80.0% at MD
30.0% UF
7.90
5.55 ACC
So 8-4 overall with a slight lean to 6-2 in conference.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
Were the results ever posted for this?
Sorry if I’m totally missing them, I just didn’t see anything.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Tomahawk Nation
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
SHOP THE TOMAHAWK NATION STORE
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
