Give Your Final Prediction On FSU's Season!
by Bud Elliott on Sep 1, 2010 11:15 AM EDT
in FSU Football
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Back in May of last year Bud wrote about how professional gamblers assign probabilities to each game to go about predicting the season. This is an exercise we like to run to manage expectations and show how difficult it truly is to win 10 games or more in college football, especially if a team is not favored in all of its games.
It just so happens I have a friend of mine who is a professional gambler. Every year since my freshman year of college, we've gotten together and broken down the upcoming season, and we have a method. We call it "proportional win shares". You can call it whatever you want, but I think you'll see how it's more effective than simply assigning "win" or "loss" to the games.
The idea is simple: assign a winning % to each game. For instance, you could say that FSU has an 80% chance of beating Maryland (0.80), or that they have a 20% chance to beat UF (0.20).
Now, I think it is fair to say that many around here know the drill, but Tomahawk Nation has grown drastically since last year and we want to give everyone a shot. We've conducted this exercise 4 times now and this is your final prediction! It will be very interesting to track the changes in the optimism (or pessimism) for the team and to determine whether any change in prediction was tied to a specific event. This is your chance to show us how good or bad you think Florida State will be!
It's simple. "How likely is FSU to win in each game?"
Props to editor ricobert1 for creating this great survey, where you can select the chance FSU will win in each game and it will automatically fill in your proportional win shares! So read the article on proportional win shares, then take the survey!
For posterity, you may view user results here (click to see your results). However, we encourage you to only view these once you've submitted your own predictions in order to minimize inducing (more) bias.
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The probabilities say 8-4, but....
I’m going to say they pull one out that they shouldn’t and finish 9-3.
Bring back Korey Mangum — a true Nole!
Indeed. Spreadsheet
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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I'm counting on heavy losses for UNC.
Samford = 0.99
OU = 0.3
BYU = 0.85
Wake = 0.85
UVa = 0.8
UM = 0.4
BC = 0.75
NCSU = 0.75
UNC = 0.75
CU = 0.7
UMd = 0.75
UF = 0.3
Total = 8.19 (5.75 ACC)
Here we go
Samford = 0.99
OU = 0.4
BYU = 0.85
Wake = 0.90
UVa = 0.90
UM = 0.45
BC = 0.75
NCSU = 0.75
UNC = 0.75
CU = 0.70
UMd = 0.85
UF = 0.4
Total = 8.69 (6.05 ACC)
Let hope for 9-3 :-)
by freshcollegeboy on Sep 1, 2010 11:34 AM EDT reply actions
8.64 (6)
sam .99
ou .35
byu .85
wf .9
uva .9
mia .5
bc .7
ncst .75
unc .7
clem .7
md .85
uf .45
Team Gold!
7.92...
may be a little lower than before just because i dont want to set myself up to be unhappy with the season. I do believe we will get 8 this year but id sure love to see us knowck off either UM or UF to get 9.
Thank God for the men and women who stand tall in the night to protect this great country we love so much
i say we get 9
dont feel like typing everything out.
Did you take it? It is multiple choice
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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they did
8.49 (5.8)
"The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary." Vince Lombardi
"We'll win games with talent, we'll win championships with character." Jimbo Fisher
RishiM, can you tell me what my numbers were?
I’m thinking around 8.5 and 6 but didn’t add them up before I submitted.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
It's in the spreadsheet
Samford = .99
OU = .35
BYU = .85
WF = .9
UVA = .75
MIA = .45
BC = .7
NCST =.7
UNC = .8
CLEM = .75
MD = .75
UF = .4
5.8 conf wins / 8.39 total
Oh, didn't even look lol. Thanks.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
Cautiously Optimistic
Samford = 99.9%
OU = 30%
BYU = 85%
WF = 95%
UVA = 90%
MIA = 49%
BC = 70%
NCST = 75%
UNC = 70%
CLEM = 60%
MD = 85%
UF = 30%
8.389 expected total. 8-4 is expected but I can see pulling out 9-3. UNC losses will be helpful and the Miami game will be huge.
Forgot to write mine down.
But judging by others, I’m guessing I got roughly 8.5, give or take a couple tenth.
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assault of thought on the unthinking."
- John Maynard Keynes
"We'll be here 'til midnight. We ain't not gonna practice."
- Jimbo Fisher
Good 'ole hairyballsnole
I think he OD’d on the koolaid
by freshcollegeboy on Sep 1, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm excited
didn’t realize we were going to be favored against OU
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
8.14
Samford = 99.9%
OU = 25%
BYU = 80%
WF = 85%
UVA = 90%
MIA = 50%
BC = 60%
NCST = 75%
UNC = 70%
CLEM = 65%
MD = 85%
UF = 30%
Bumped UNC up
but not a ton
Sam-98
OU-30
BYU-75
WF-80
UVA-85
MIA-40
BC-65
NCST-65
UNC-70
CLEM-60
MARY-80
UF-35
5.45 Conference 7.83 Overall
If you didn’t write about how young the Dline is this might be higher. HAHA.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
14-0!!!!
Undefeated!
ACC Champs!
Unconquered!
Heisman Trophy!
National Champions!
…or 8-4.
by Bravo! on Sep 1, 2010 11:50 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Im not having trouble conceptualizing these percentages (as in, I think we beat NCst 4 times if we played them 5), but Im still not confident in my consistency
samford .99
-tried to assign roughly 7.5% to home team for remaining games. For example, I think the difference between our chances of beating OU and UF are approximately equivalent to homefield advantage, 15%.
at OU .25 (national implications for beating OU in their house have got me drooling)
BYU .90
Wake .95 (most predictable D1 game)
at UVA .80
at UM .50 (least predictable game)
BC .70
at NCST .75
UNC .85
UClem .70
at MD .825
UF .40
total= 8.61 wins, sounds about right
noles, marlins, phins
when I typed the subject line I wasn’t thinking about homefield, so with that advantage included, I should probably put NCst at .725
I think a lot of ACC teams either have reaaally bad offense or bad defense. Or both.
8.61 makes sense to me over 8.0 wins because I think we have the right kind of coaching staff to exploit their weaknesses, and hide ours. We can exploit the differential in our talent vs. their development/experience.
noles, marlins, phins
by NorthernHaze on Sep 1, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you have UNC as losing 9 starters? 4? None?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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two are gone, and I read of seven others possibly being demoted to scout team? I guess its reasonable to guess 5.5 starters lost
sources being this site, Carolina march (which I think I read only once), and Joe Schad, who seem to be sharing information
noles, marlins, phins
by NorthernHaze on Sep 1, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
The two aren't gone yet though
That was premature. They’ve since practiced.
But they are still on scout. But for how long?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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The Carolina people I talk to
Are still very confident that they won’t lose ANYBODY to Tutorgate, maybe just one to Partygate.
Just lost Austin to violation of team rules
unrelated they say
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Riiight...
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
Well, that's the "one"
We’ll see about the rest. I think they’re mad, but it’s folks close to the program …..
Delusional.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
Samford – 97.5%
@Oklahoma – 25.0%
BYU – 82.5%
Wake – 87.5*%
@UVA – 75.0*%
@ UM – 42.5*%
BC – 62.5*%
@NCSU – 77.5*%
Carolina – 70.0*%
Clemson – 55.0*%
@UMD – 77.5*%
Florida – 35.0%
7.875 and 5.475
>>---l>
I thought I would be the lowest.
Thanks Debbie Downer. HA.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 1, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Dang it, I am lower than yours.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 1, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I may be lower
I ended up at 7.59, but my initial reaction is always a low one for us. Can’t wait until that changes. Looking back on it my vote for UNC should have been in the 75-85 range because their offense will most likely be horrible and they are toast if they lose the people they are rumored to lose. But since I don’t know all their defensive studs will be gone for sure I went conservative with a 65.
by osceolafan2.0 on Sep 1, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Same.
Think my percentage for UNC was 60 percent or so in an earlier prediction. Bumped it up to 70 percent. Still conservative I guess if they lose a bunch but still reasonable.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 1, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
If they lose a bunch
they are going to get trucked. No way their back ups can stop our offense.
by osceolafan2.0 on Sep 1, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't have UNC losing a ton of players
I’m thinking in the 4 range right now.
total=7.89
conference=5.45
by the way, i’m not basing that number lost for UNC on any insider knowledge, just from different reports on the radio and various places up here.
I tried to do this thing true, with my estimated point spreads and everything
I think I’m just bad at coming up with the point spreads, because my percentages were all over the place and we didn’t have a single game that I would call a toss up. Even OU and UF had only 20% and 25% chances respectively. I came out to 8.11 in my own total figured out using Bud’s formula, but my numbers entered here come out to
8.10 overall
5.80 ACC
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Don't have to use the point spreads. It's just a tool to help
Some just use gut.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Oh ya, I know, that's what I've done in the past
But I wanted to try it with an estimated point spread for each game.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
I'm not counting Samford, to me it messes with your total for the year...
OU-40
BYU-75
WF-85
UVA-85
MIA-50
BC-55
NCST-75
UNC-55
CLEM-55
MARY-80
UF-25
6.8 Overall
5.4 ACC
counted yes, but that game will not make us
8 win prediction! I’m happy with 6 win prediction minus that game.
Huh?
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 1, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope you know
that what you just said, makes little to no sense
I don't see mine up yet
But I do see Dot’s, interesting. ACC: 4.8 Overall: 7.4
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Sep 1, 2010 12:37 PM EDT reply actions
NM
5.2 and 7.35
Sigh, I hope heart is smarterier than brain.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Sep 1, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have to say 6-7 with a bowl loss.
Just kidding. 8-4 is a safe bet, but I think 9-3 is doable.
by Nole Resurrected on Sep 1, 2010 12:37 PM EDT reply actions
Hey Cane.
If you were to do a percentage prediction for the U what would it be? Would love to see one from a Cane fan for their team.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 1, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
If you ask those not named Cane Ressurection, they will be 14-0, they will win the NC, and Jacory "Starvin Marvin" Harris will win the Heisman. At least that's what I am told by those I have talked to.
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
HAHA
Resurrection appears to be a level headed Cane fan (if there ever was one). Anyone other U fan and I would be getting 1000% percent of games won or 15 victories…
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
LOL simply because I am the 1st person I know of who started calling him that....
….And now it has caught on.
Oderint Dum Metuant
my %'s are in there but no win totals
that’s racist!
by DownByTheRiverWalkinOnWater on Sep 1, 2010 12:39 PM EDT reply actions
NM
takes a minute i guess
by DownByTheRiverWalkinOnWater on Sep 1, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
You might be able to do a couple things to get around that.
Grace I call Your name, Oh won’t Your smile fall over me, I’m cracked and dry on hands and knees, Oh sweet grace rain down on me I need You grace
-Phil Wickham
I tried pre-populating the fields with the formula ready to receive each successive form entry
but to no avail, but it doesn’t like that.
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
I'll post later tonight if you're up for suggestions or have anything you might want to work around with it (to make it easier, if possible).
Not knowing exactly what you’re doing I’m not sure though.
Grace I call Your name, Oh won’t Your smile fall over me, I’m cracked and dry on hands and knees, Oh sweet grace rain down on me I need You grace
-Phil Wickham
Can you send me an email at adwright99@gmail.com, preferably with the spreadsheet you're using and how the data in being entered into it? I think I'd be better able to help if I knew how you are putting the data into your spreadsheet. That withstanding:
Mabye take the spreadsheet you currently have, add a second sheet that uses a vlookup formula to pull in the data, have the pre-poplulated fields on the second sheet calculate the information?
Not sure why the formula wouldn’t like receiving each successfive form entry. What format is the entry coming in? How is it coming in? Where is the data going from our poll and in what kind of file?
Grace I call Your name, Oh won’t Your smile fall over me, I’m cracked and dry on hands and knees, Oh sweet grace rain down on me I need You grace
-Phil Wickham
It's through GoogleDocs
so the functionality is in the vein of Excel.
Specifically, we’re using the GoogleDoc “Form” as the survey mechanism.
FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.
hopefully we can win the ACCCG and the bowl game
Boom, 10 win season, bitches.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
I think we'll win the bowl unless it is the Orange bowl
If we get sent to the champs or the sun…
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Would depend on the opponent in the Orange Bowl I believe.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Doubt a fraud is send to the OB unless we get the BE winner
At larges will probably be TCU, Texas/OU and UF. UF goes to Sugar leaving one of the others unless the OB is stuck with the BE winner again. Anyone know the order of choices this year?
by osceolafan2.0 on Sep 1, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Nebraska?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Just a heads up, there are duplicates on the spreadsheet.
Grace I call Your name, Oh won’t Your smile fall over me, I’m cracked and dry on hands and knees, Oh sweet grace rain down on me I need You grace
-Phil Wickham
Wow.
55% to win at OU, but only 65% vs BC?
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assault of thought on the unthinking."
- John Maynard Keynes
"We'll be here 'til midnight. We ain't not gonna practice."
- Jimbo Fisher
Bud, usually I hate it when people pick apart your writing with minor grammatical errors.
But you referring to yourself in the 3rd person in the first line is just funny to me for some reason.
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman
Copy paste job from Ricob haha
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Copy paste job from Ricob haha
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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I call BS.
Ricobert, there’s no .95 for OU, and Wake only goes down to .50.
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assault of thought on the unthinking."
- John Maynard Keynes
"We'll be here 'til midnight. We ain't not gonna practice."
- Jimbo Fisher
by Drew J Jones on Sep 1, 2010 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Impossible to tell
We have no idea what FSU’s capabilities are, or Florida, or Miami’s. These teams have been changed so much that it could be anybodys ball game. Only time will tell. Yes, our defense is young, but all three of these teams have added weaknesses for 2010. I don’t want to sound overly optimistic, but these two competitors should be averaging 50/50 at the least.
I'm saying....9-3
losses are to OU, Miami, and Florida…..pivotal game will be BC that determines the 8-4 or 9-3.
http://www.mmaforreal.com
Follow Me On Twitter@MMA4Real
oh yea..my fault
Samford 0.99
@ OU 0.3
BYU 0.8
WF 0.9
@ UVA 0.9
@ UM 0.45
BC 0.55
@ NCST 0.75
UNC 0.8
CLEM 0.7
@ UMD 0.9
UF 0.35
http://www.mmaforreal.com
Follow Me On Twitter@MMA4Real
Did you take the survey?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
Follow Tomahawk Nation's Twitter feed!
8.19
Samford 0.99
@ OU 0.3
BYU 0.85
WF 0.9
@ UVA 0.8
@ UM 0.45
BC 0.65
@ NCST 0.7
UNC 0.75
CLEM 0.6
@ UMD 0.8
UF 0.4
OU Game
We will find out everything we need to know about this years team the 2nd week of the season bc OU is in the top 3 for most talented teams in the nation.
Season starts at Miami IMO
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Agreed
I feel I can safely predict what our record will be going into that game, and I’m fine with it. It’s after that that we have the chance to take off like crazy, do exactly what each of us expects or fall on our faces.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Lets not be hasty
We have quite the task with Samford.
Bring back Peter Tom Willis— a true Nole! -FiestaNole
very true
We will with out a doubt be a much better team towards the end of the season, but when it comes to looking at our talent with the appropriate coaching, the OU game will be a great measuring stick for us
I'm going to take it with a grain of salt, personally
Defense’s first real game and it happens to come against an elite team. I don’t think that’s a fair basis on which to judge them.
>>---l>
Let's give it a try..
Samford = 0.99
OU = 0.40
BYU = 0.80
Wake = 0.85
UVa = 0.85
UM = 0.50
BC = 0.70
NCSU = 0.75
UNC = 0.75
CU = 0.70
UMd = 0.80
UF = 0.40
Total = 8.49
? for you Bud
What is your outlook for the OU game when you say hopes crushed are you looking at us losing by 15+
I think hopes of serious sunshiners will be crushed
Hopes of people who closely follow this group won’t be crushed
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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I guess I am just to optimistic
I feel that we can keep it with in 10 but most of all I just want to see us compete into the 4th qr
We could play a good game and lost by 14
Or play a bad game and lose by 3
I want to see us play well relative to our talent level and experience. I’m trying not to base my eval on the final score if it is determined by bounces
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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OU
question, not being snarky…but whats the big deal about OU? im not convinced on stachey jones and demarco murray is always hurt…they seem to be returning only a few o-lineman and their defense was suspect last year. seem to be a lot of questions…im sure they’re a great team but why all the certainty all over the prediction boards?
They had the 2nd or 3rd best defense in the country last year
Anyone have the OU link I compiled for everyone a month ago?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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Feast your
eyes on the sleeping monster that is OU.
Make sure you scroll through the comments. Might want to shoot yourself after for various reasons. Like me thinking Fortson could have a good game and posting a cool photo of him. FAIL.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
In other words
we have to hear the folk at ESPN talk about how the ACC sucks if FSU and Miami lose that week….
http://www.mmaforreal.com
Follow Me On Twitter@MMA4Real
Yes
The ACC could get blasted. I think Boise, Ohio State, LSU, and OU win.
In 2011, different story
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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yea
I do think Va Tech can beat Boise though….I’d say 60% with it being basically a home game for the Hokies…but they are known to fold like wet t-shirts at times though.
http://www.mmaforreal.com
Follow Me On Twitter@MMA4Real
Boise is now favored
VT is apparently quite banged up
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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I got Boise in the pick 'em.
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
VT Ground game
VT will be able to run the ball on Boise, the question is will Foster be able to have his D ready to contain the complexity of Boise O
Their
oline is banged up. Running the ball is not a given. Boise is not a good game for them to have first. Their dline is almost as inexperienced as FSUs. Their two-deep dends have a combined ONE start.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
Please don't tell me Boise wins
that is the only team I want to lose out of those 4. I found their roster hoping to see small guys that could be run over by the VT running game. Like BYU by FSU last year. They are not small. At all.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
I hate Boise because of what they do
but this Tech team is overrated and banged up
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Whatever.
HAHA, I’m letting emotion take over for my pick. Taking VT over Boise.
Off to see how bad it is for VT…
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
Overrated on D or O...or where?
I think there Offense will be….not buying the TT hype coming out right now….kind of hope I’m wrong though…and he wills them to victory over Boise….I don’t think I could stomach that loss…I really dislike them as well.
http://www.mmaforreal.com
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Yes on D
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I put action on all those too
I didn’t realize until now that it was all anti-ACC bets
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Sep 1, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Jeeze
ONE of those has got to come up roses for the ACC. Go Hokies!
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
I was worried I would do this and be a homer...
But answered honestly and came up with 5.5 and 7.94. 8 – 4 it is!
Here's the thing.
I’ve watched FSU get outcoached and under-utilize its talent for about 2 decades. That was The Bowden Way. We had the talent to make that work.
This will be the first time in my FSU caeer that I will go into games knowing we have not been out-worked and won’t be out-coached or out-schemed or out-planned. If/when we lose, it won"t be due to any of those factors, as it was during "The Dynasty’.
I wonder what Fisher and his staff could have done with that tlaent for all those years.
Anyway, I can’t help but be optimistic— not always confident— going into every game now.
proud graduate of the Uncle Rico Quarterback Camp
Outworked this year? No
Outworked and outdeveloped in the last two years?
I too am optimistic we will play goo football in each game.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I thought about the "good football" difference this year
But I can’t help but think that good teams have let downs. So I just don’t see us not having one at some point (NC St, Clem, UNC).
Whether that’s a loss I don’t know, but I trended down 5-10% on a couple games bc I just don’t expect us to play good, smart ball every game. I’ve got to see it before I believe it.
/lifeishalfempty
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Sep 1, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I seem to recall
our team for the past few seasons being amongst the most penalized and costing ourselves drive after drive (offensively and defensively). Think that one offseason with competent coaching can rectify this problem?
I think coaches will always preach about penalties
but most studies show they don’t matter much.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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That's my theory
But nobody has broken it down by type
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I would think WHEN penalties happen is more important than the number of them or yards penalized.
IE, keeping opponents’ drives alive on 3rd down by a defensive penalty, being called offsides on defense when you have a pick 6 on the play or being called for holding when you get a 1st down/TD on offense. A penalty doesn’t matter as much if you get a roughing the passer on a 1st down or a holding on an incomplete pass. I think that makes sense at least…
MiNDSET? SWAG-ER-ISM!!!
---------------------------------------------------------
"Trick is right."
"Wherever you are, Trick, you are wise, indeed."
"Correct, Sir Trick."
I think it’s the type of penalty and the alternative to the penalty that matters most. Offside, holding, DPI, and roughing the passer tend to be penalties that are overlooked many times because of either opinions or they are hard to pick out. If a penalty is not called often in relation to how often it happens it’s worth it. Also if the alternative to a penalty (think DPI on a pass that would be over 15 yards or a TD) is worse than the penalty then you take the penalty.
I would not be surprised if we are undefeated when UF heads into the Doak.
Seriously though, what I picked and what I would bet are not necessarily the same.
>-----:----:------>Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
by FrankDNole on Sep 1, 2010 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Frank I don't disagree with those a ton
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Kool-Aid emoticon is all kinds of win.
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assault of thought on the unthinking."
- John Maynard Keynes
"We'll be here 'til midnight. We ain't not gonna practice."
- Jimbo Fisher
Here’s your kool-aid:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3NbpJyGz6c
by jasonole59 on Sep 2, 2010 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
fwiw
I have the OU game at .40, but i have a really good feeling about that game.
There’s something to be said about gut feelings. Last gut feeling i had placed me one Da’shawn Butler knee injury away from having the most accurate March Madness bracket in Yahoo!
Resounding theme is that many are feeling confident on Clemson
Seeing a lot of 70%’s out there.
>>---l>
Bowden-lite offensive coaching staff plus huge personnel losses.
And folks trust our offense to put points on the board against any D.
I think it’s logical.
I actually feel pretty good about that game
Even though I think the talent level is comparable
>>---l>
This is one where my head says, "no problem,"
but my heart says, “oh noes.”
I think we SHOULD win the game:
(a) They have a young offense, we have a young defense.
(2) We have a veteran offense, they have a veteran defense.
(d) We have elite offensive coaching, and they have elite defensive coaching. but…
(fin) We have elite defensive coaching, and they have… Dabo.
My fearless prediction
Uf .45
Mary .9
Clem .7
Unc .75
Ncstate .7
Bc .65
Mia .5
UVA .85
Wake .9
Byu .8
Ou .35
Sam .99
Total: 9-3 (6-2)
That’s how my totals came out although, I believe we are far more likely to go 9-3 (7-1)
Personally, I think all signs point to unc being in bigger trouble than most imagine. Also, I feel that Miami is a toss up as it is every year (there is NO homefield advantage in that series) and I believe that we should beat OU more than 1/3 times but I’m not quite willing to say 4/10 so .35 sounds right and I feel more confident about UF than my score would indicate, but I’m being realistic for the sake of accurate results. The only reason ncst isn’t higher also is because of Wilson and the fact that it’s a Thursday night.
by Sem1nole on Sep 1, 2010 2:27 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
And for the record
I say we beat Oklahoma 34-31
by Sem1nole on Sep 1, 2010 2:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Question
Will the avg. win shares for all TN members be posted in the next couple of days? I’d like to know what we expect as a community, and what we think about specific games.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Sep 1, 2010 2:56 PM EDT reply actions
Yes
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Not at all disagreeing with the logic here
I can see where this system is very useful with a team like ours but I am having a hard time applying it to some of the predicted say top 10 teams. Can you give me an example of how you could possibly predict an undefeated season for any team or for that matter even a 1 loss season?
Just thinking from a numbers perspective, you would have to be a very large favorite in every game for even a 1 loss season to be a possibility. Could anyone ever fall into that category? Maybe use Alabama or the like as an example?
I made it work for a 1 loss season for Alabama just shooting from the hip but not sure how realistic it is.
Sept. 4……San Jose State……Bryant-Denny Stadium 1
Sept. 11……Penn State……Bryant-Denny Stadium 0.75
Sept. 18……at Duke……Durham, N.C. 1
Sept. 25……*at Arkansas……Fayetteville, Ark. 1
Oct. 2……*Florida……Bryant-Denny Stadium 0.75
Oct. 9……*at South Carolina……Columbia, S.C. 1
Oct. 16……*Mississippi……Bryant-Denny Stadium 1
Oct. 23……*at Tennessee……Knoxville, Tenn. 1
Oct. 30……Open Date
Nov. 6……*at LSU……Baton Rouge, La. 0.75
Nov. 13……*Mississippi State……Bryant-Denny Stadium 1
Nov. 20……Georgia State……Bryant-Denny Stadium 1
Nov. 26……*Auburn……Bryant-Denny Stadium 0.8
11.05
Alabama is not projected to go undefeated this year. It is incredibly hard to go undefeated
Try TCU
Date Opponent Result
Sep. 4 Oregon State 6:45pm .75
Sep. 11 Tennessee Tech 6:00pm 1
Sep. 18 Baylor 3:30pm .95
Sep. 24 at SMU 7:00pm .95
Oct. 2 at Colorado State TBA .95
Oct. 9 Wyoming 2:30pm .95
Oct. 16 BYU 3:00pm .85
Oct. 23 Air Force 7:00pm .85
Oct. 30 at UNLV 10:00pm .85
Nov. 6 at Utah 2:30pm .55
Nov. 13 San Diego St. 3:00pm .95
Nov. 27 at New Mexico 3:00pm .95
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Again don't disagree
But i think it is even hard to show, for example a 1 loss season for them, or do you round up when it comes to your totals. So for instance in your TCU example above =10.55, therefore predicted to go 11-1 or 10-2?
[sorry was meant to be a reply, I suck at this]
This has been my problem with the PWS model
It is nearly impossible to predict a 1-loss or undefeated season, yet teams do that every year. That’s why I think it is a little off-base to throttle someone who gives percentages that predict 8 wins, who then gives “predictions” for 9-10 wins.
Just my two cents
But how many that do it do it without signficant luck?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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No doubt it takes luck
i.e. Bama blocking the game winning field goal.
But you can’t blame me for being skeptical about using a model that literally makes it impossible to predict undefeated seasons, and makes it highly unlikely to predict 1-loss season (especially for teams in the BCS conferences), even though I know that it happens every year.
Somebody will overachieve this year, and I think with the amount of positive changes happening this year, it’s okay for FSU fans to predict overachievement.
I do, however, think that expecting overachievement on the scale of 10-11 wins is overboard, but I don’t see anything wrong with “reasonably” predicting 9-10 wins, if you’re percentages are around 8.5 wins
It's probably more likely that you over-achieve if you have 2 tossups and 10 virtual locks.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Small chance of going undefeated distributed across several teams...
…results in larger likelihood of at least ONE going undefeated.
Again don't disagree
But i think it is even hard to show, for example a 1 loss season for them, or do you round up when it comes to your totals. So for instance in your TCU example above =10.55, therefore predicted to go 11-1 or 10-2?
I think you acknowledge that 11-1 or 10-2 are very likely there.
This helps to show just how much luck an undefeated season really takes.
If you play multiple good teams and a bunch of decent teams, you’re almost certainly not going undefeated.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Again don't disagree
But i think it is even hard to show, for example a 1 loss season for them, or do you round up when it comes to your totals. So for instance in your TCU example above =10.55, therefore predicted to go 11-1 or 10-2?
[sorry was meant to be a reply]
I got 8.49 (using the survey options)
Samford 0.99
Oklahoma 0.25
BYU 0.85
Wake Forest 0.85
Virginia 0.85
Miami 0.45
BC 0.75
NC State 0.8
UNC 0.75
Clemson 0.75
Maryland 0.85
UF 0.35
My numbers have gone up by almost a full game from the 1st time I entered for the 2010 season (did the first time but not since until today). I don’t remember the exact number I had, but am pretty sure was in the mid-to-upper 7s (i.e 7.6-7.8 range).
I’m guessing I’ll be in the area on of average for this survey (i.e. am expecting the average to be in the mid 8s) and maybe even the mean (not as easy to forecast using pure guesswork based on previous posts of the users on here).
"The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary." Vince Lombardi
"We'll win games with talent, we'll win championships with character." Jimbo Fisher
was 6.05 ACC
"The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary." Vince Lombardi
"We'll win games with talent, we'll win championships with character." Jimbo Fisher
Let's see.
Samford – 0.99
Oklahoma – 0.4
BYU – 0.9
Wake – 0.95
UVA – 0.95
Miami – 0.6
BC – 0.65
NCST – 0.85
UNC – 0.65
Clemson – 0.5
Maryland – 0.95
Florida – 0.6
Total – 8.99
ACC – 6.1
My Clemson and UNC picks might be a bit low but I’m just not sure what to expect from UNC’s defense yet. Miami and Florida might be a bit high but it’s hard to get rid of those feelings that this year is the year.
Breaking ...
UNC DT Marvin Austin suspended indefinitely for violating team rules.
NOT related, according to B. Davis, to NCAA probe.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, says our D will be much much better
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/preview10/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=5515794
State’s defense is close to eliteMark Stoops’ brand of assignment-oriented football will be a boon for Seminoles
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider.
Here's hopin anyway
Fisher even said that Defense can turn it around quicker than O, not discrediting Bud’s kick ass analysis tempering out expectations, which i can’t disagree with, just hoping the bend don’t breaks and long fieldss result in a bunch of G5 type plays.
Problem there is he thinks the percentage holds but the percentage was likely based in part on wild play
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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well, if this is true
the secret to his success really didn’t come from a playbook but rather from getting his defenders to play higher percentage football. He knew that the first step in improving a struggling defense is to get his charges to be where they are supposed to be on a play; when combined with coordinated tackling and coverage efforts, it keeps the defense from giving up a bunch of easy yards and makes the offense have to work that much harder to move the ball.
and this was responisble for a ~25% yardage reduction in the first year, where would that put FSU in D rankings if Stoops and Hudson were to do the same for us?
proud graduate of the Uncle Rico Quarterback Camp
by PeachTreeNole on Sep 1, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you'll see that.
We can be that top 45 defense. Problem is we’re playing a bunch of very good teams too.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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More than that (a big IF)
Ansparger reduced ypg by about 25% in the first year of each of his stops at the college and pro level, just by getting players to be where they are supposed to be on plays combined with ccordinated coverage— something woefully laccking for us last year. The second year was another 25% improvement.
By that analogy, with now decent coaching, we should give up 332 ypg this year, which would make us a Top 25 defense by 2009 rankings.,
proud graduate of the Uncle Rico Quarterback Camp
by PeachTreeNole on Sep 1, 2010 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions
That would make us top 25? I don't see that happening then.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I know. And riding the faulty logic train a little farther,
a Top 25 Defense, plus our Top 15 (?) Offense would make us_____?
proud graduate of the Uncle Rico Quarterback Camp
by PeachTreeNole on Sep 1, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably a very solid 9-3 with a better than a longshot chance at 10-2
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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Well
the chart says 5.75 acc and 8.44 overall but my intuition doesn’t buy it. I say 10-2 with the losses coming from the OU, UM or the little school down the road. We win one of those 3 & finish acc play at 6-1 or 7-0. I know I know Bud……Doesn’t make any sense, none of the numbers speak to a better than expected season but I just feel like something special is brewing and though we will not reach the NC game the intangibles of this team will drive them past 7-5, 8-4 & 9-3.
Here we go
Samford- 0.99
OU- 0.25
BYU 0.75
Wake- 0.80
UVA 0.90
Miami 0.50
BC 0.60
NCST 0.70
UNC 0.65
Clemson 0.55
Maryland 0.90
UF 0.35
Total- 7.94 That sounds about right to me I’m expecting 8 maybe 9 wins. If we could get to 10 including the bowl game I would be extremely happy.
well
samford .99
oklahoma .475
Byu .80
wake .95
virginia .95
miami .575
BC .785
NCST .70
UNC .610
Clemson .630
maryland .850
UF .470
total 8.7 (9) 9-3
acc 6.05 (6) 6-2
va tech/mia/unc/gt .600
10-3
bowl game orange bowl/sugar bowl .485
10-4 acc champs…..
Could lose to Miami but I doubt it
Samford 100
Oklahoma 0.40
BYU 0.85
Wake Forest 0.90
Virginia 0.90
Miami 0.60
BC 0.75
NC State 0.80
UNC 0.75
Clemson 0.75
Maryland 0.99
UF 0.50
Ten and one half wins. I can’t and won’t ever predict UF win. It would be like giving satan the edge over light.
Don't miss the new best selling books by the Bowden clan
Just One Star Player And One Big Play Away Forever…By Bobby Bowden
Burned In Effigy By Classless WVU Fans...By Ann Bowden
Just Pay The Man.....By Terry Bowden
They Dared To Fire Our Arses....By Burning Ann
Purple Haze, Prozac, Geritol, Senility, Back Stabbing And Losing…By Ann Bowden
Everyone seems to think FSU has no chance against UF
Let me say if Brantley gets hurt, people will want to ride Meyer out of town. He has a chronic pain in the arm right now, the punter Chas Henry has been called by some their best option at quarterback if Brantley is hurt.
Chris Rainey is being monitored for a skipping heart. Demps is going to have to block this year if they are going to throw from the pocket.
They lost somewhere around 12 key players last year. Their offensive line is not rated as high as FSU’s offensive line. Their quarterback, bottom line is not as good or experienced as Ponder. Hell their linebackers from what I can see no better than ours and maybe not as good.
The defensive backs are good but guess what from what I am hearing out of practice this will be an FSU strong point also.
Their coaching staff, who knows it is all new and up in the air. Will they jell? That is important you know. See article on Chuck Amato. I can’t even remember the name of their DC. Linebacker coach for Buffalo?
Herban himself is crying the blues and this time I don’t think it is all coach speak. In short those who think this in an automatic win for UF as usual have been listening to too much ESPN.
Don't miss the new best selling books by the Bowden clan
Just One Star Player And One Big Play Away Forever…By Bobby Bowden
Burned In Effigy By Classless WVU Fans...By Ann Bowden
Just Pay The Man.....By Terry Bowden
They Dared To Fire Our Arses....By Burning Ann
Purple Haze, Prozac, Geritol, Senility, Back Stabbing And Losing…By Ann Bowden
another light that should be sheded on Johnny B
like you said if he gets hurt (not saying im looking for it, just stating) UF will be on some reall trouble, i played vs johnny back here in ocala, and he is the total OPPOSITE of tebow. Tebow (and i hate him) is the type that will take you head on, doesnt matter if its an all american defender or a true freshman….johnny isnt like that, and hes not as tough, one solid lick on johnny and he whimpers, no bullshit, i’ve seen it, in practice at trinity catholic players where conditioned HARD if they so much fell around johnnys ankles and knees any given play. Im just sayin, if nigel gets a clean shot on johnny, you better hide your kids, and hide your wife, cuz im willing to bet anyone he stays down. Johnny is a hometown kid, i hate hes a gator, but i dont “hate” him, im just being honest on what i know about him personally.
"theres two types of people in this world, those who CARRY a spear and those who FEAR the spear"-James Coley
"Hide your kids, hide your wife"
“H-Hide your kids…….H-H-Hiiiiide your wife.”
That guy could be the William Heung of the projects fo’ shizzle…..
Oderint Dum Metuant
Interesting stuff.
It will certainly be different for the Gates not having a baby rhino that can throw.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
One more thing
They brought Stan Drayton back and he was the one they had to pull off Meyer before he resigned to leave for Tennessee and I think he left there too. He is no Eddie Gran by a long shot. I can’t possibly rate their backs better than ours either. Fisher turned Demps down.
I have always said Mullen was the backbone of Meyer’s system. He handled a lot of things Meyer did not have to bother with. It showed last year also as it looked for awhile MSU was going to upset them. I am thinking the gators are on a down slide. Do I hope so, you bet.
They are counting heavily on Debose making comeback from surgery also. Will he?
Don't miss the new best selling books by the Bowden clan
Just One Star Player And One Big Play Away Forever…By Bobby Bowden
Burned In Effigy By Classless WVU Fans...By Ann Bowden
Just Pay The Man.....By Terry Bowden
They Dared To Fire Our Arses....By Burning Ann
Purple Haze, Prozac, Geritol, Senility, Back Stabbing And Losing…By Ann Bowden
Well
we’ll have an idea if the wheels are falling off in G’ville after they face ‘Bama fifth week of the season. I don’t think they lose a game before that, no matter how bad things are getting. I have FSU’s shot at 35 percent. That is a far cry from the 5 percent I gave that game last year.
I mean, I hope they are abysmal. But I don’t see it yet. Still think they win 10 regular season games. But that is still one more win than they had the last time they went through a transition, the year after that being a championship season.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
Kudos to whoever filled out the poll as Warchant with 10.29 (7).
You gave me a good laugh.
Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K.
13-0
REALLY!!!Not to say we wont have tough games(especially BC,MIAMI, U.F & OU) BUT WE GET IT DONE.Jimbo wins Coach of the year but Ponder finishes second in the Heisman ballot because OSU finshes undefeated & they love Terelle Pryor too much.We get revenge by beating an overrated OSU after Ala is ruined by an Auburn blowout after a close game with UF.How is that?Boise St?dropped to 4th after a weak schedule does them in.TCU finishes 3rd, after TX, OU & Neb. clip each other.Twice!!the lower seeded TX beats NEB in the conference title game after NEB beats them in the regular season.I think that about does it
Heck of a first post.
I’m not a bettin man usually, but I think I’d like to place a wager…
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 2, 2010 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
how do i follow that ^^
ummm
Sam—1.0
OU—.5
BYU—.85
WF—.9
UVA—.9
UM—.4
BC—.75
NC—.85
UNC—.75 (factoring in marvin austin) if greg little is out .85
Clem—.75
Terps—.9
The little team down the road—.6
if math is right its 9.1, but imo i think the defense will be good enough to force an extra punt or two a game, and also talented enough to force more pressure and turnovers, not the best defense fsu has produced, but good enough to keep us in games (which for the most part, as bad as it was last year, every game except for UF we were at one point in.) And the offense everyone knows it, without a doubt when full go should be top 5 in the nation, so despite the 9.1 rating, i think a 10 win season is within in reach.
Expectations are high, but realistic.
bud, what do you think the offensive ppg will be, vs the defenses points allowed?
"theres two types of people in this world, those who CARRY a spear and those who FEAR the spear"-James Coley
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