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Scouting FSU's Opponents: Week 3

Inside, you'll find the drive charts for FSU's remaining opponents. These cover competitive possessions only, and do not include stats racked up when the game was mathematically over.

Star-divide

As always, these are listed in order of the schedule.  BC, Miami, and Virginia did not play this week.














FSU

Byu-_fsu_non-garbageclass=

As you can see, FSU consistently moved the ball throughout the entire game. When a team moves the ball and doesn't score, it's a great indication that scores will soon come.  FSU out-gained BYU by 130% and that's a dominant performance.  FSU had drives of 54, 62, 83, 63, and 86 yards in competitive time.  BYU had 8 drives of 20 or fewer yards.

Now, compare that to last season!

Fsu-byu_2009

Last year FSU was out-gained by BYU by 13%!  This year FSU out-gained BYU by 130%  FSU beat BYU by more last season, but was far more dominant this time.  Pretty wild that FSU gained more per play this year than it did last season, yet scored 10 fewer points.  BYU didn't give FSU the amazing field position that it got last year.

Wake Forest

Wake_-_stanford_non_garbage

This was an epic beatdown!  The game was over after only 7 Stanford drives (all ending in touchdowns!).  Wake really doesn't have the talent this year except for an excellent receiver corps.  FSU's biggest goal next week should be avoiding chop blocks by the Deacons in their new zone-read scheme.  

NCST

Cinci-ncst

BackingThePack has a nice recap.  Sloppy game but NC State has some talent and isn't wildly injured like it was last season.  

UNC

Gt-_unc__non-garbage

Everyone who repeatedly said that Carolina's offense would be awful and that the problems of last year were not caused by injuries and massive losses to the NFL have now shut up.    Here are two excellent takes on this Carolina game.  First | Second If Carolina gets its 7 defensive starters back I might consider the Heels the best team in the conference.

Clemson

Clemson_-_auburn_non_garbage

Dr. B does some of the best analysis on the net so I'll let him share his thoughts.  Auburn did have 44% more yards per play, but also committed two turnovers.  A very well played game on both sides and Clemson is no joke.

Maryland

Md-_wvu_non_garbage

Maryland's not an awful team, it's just a below average one.  The Terps cannot throw the ball on 3rd-long at all.  If they ran the ball more and shortened the game the Terps might have some success when conference play rolls around.  As always, Ben Broman with tremendous coverage.  FirstSecondThird.

UF

Uf_-_tennessee_non_garbage

The Gators are tough to judge because of the snap issues (certainly they were better than 5.0 per play on plays they successfully snapped), but this UF team isn't particularly dominant yet on offense.  The defense is of course loaded with talent and quite good still.

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I'm a fence sitter when it comes to Clemson

On one hand they have a lot of talent all over the team. But they just always look poorly coached in big games and it costs them year after year. Here is to hoping that Harris remembers what team to throw the ball to when they play.

I think NC State will beat BC right now. BC is offensively challenged enough that even if their defense holds Wilson in check most of the game I think he will get off enough to get a win. BC could open up conference play 0-2.

by osceolafan2.0 on Sep 19, 2010 5:55 PM EDT reply actions  

BC is favored over VTech by 2

This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.

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by Bud Elliott on Sep 19, 2010 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which to me is 50-50

I think the chances are better that BC has an 0-2 ACC start than a 2-0.
I’m thinking 1-1 for BC.

by BenDNole on Sep 19, 2010 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd say 31% to start 2-0, 19% to start 0-2

This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.

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by Bud Elliott on Sep 19, 2010 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Those are suprisingly specific numbers

How’d you get to them.
Right now, at NCSt, I’d give BC 40% chance to win, and I say 50-50 for VT. Makes 0-2 more likely in my mind, but I don’t know if that’s the best way to do it.

by BenDNole on Sep 19, 2010 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have BC as a 62.5% chance to win at NCST. State looked awful at UCF. 50-50 on BC-VT for me as well.

This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.

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by Bud Elliott on Sep 19, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gotcha

Haven’t watched either BC or NCSt play, just going off this week’s performance. Didn’t realize NCSt looked bad against UCF

by BenDNole on Sep 19, 2010 7:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Wilson was 10-30 for 105

UCF had 5 turnovers, mostly unforced

This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.

Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 19, 2010 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know

I think by game time it moves to even. I think VT is better than they looked in the last two weeks. I also think Evans has a massive chip on his shoulder and will play like it.

by osceolafan2.0 on Sep 19, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Speaking of Clemson

Does anyone know the extent Kyle Parker’s injury last night?

by NC Nole on Sep 19, 2010 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just that he tooka helmut spear to the kidney

while he was on the ground with his back turned.

We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable!

by DocHoliday2 on Sep 19, 2010 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I went to the shakinthesouthland site...

and these folks are arguing like crazy with each other. One guy even said they are better than any team left on their schedule but they are a little nervous about UM. Sorry but I watched Auburn play and they aren’t that impressive even being a ranked team. I may really hate Clemson but that doesn’t cloud my judgement and think they’ll lose every game (even though that is my dream) I just don’t think they played real well against an OK opponent. They have to play UM, UNC (UNC), GT, NC State, FSU (FSU), and SC…I’m sorry Tiger fans but you WILL lose more than one of those games.

"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." - Samuel Johnson

by JediNole on Sep 20, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

My AU

buddy agrees, doesn’t like what AU has shown so far.

Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.

by onebarrelrum on Sep 20, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

ok...

so why the grey box where I put the two “at” symbols? makes my post look all dumb…sad face

"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." - Samuel Johnson

by JediNole on Sep 20, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol

i thought it was my pc messed up when i saw that

by Cee on Sep 20, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I want to clarify that I was refering to Clemson in that post except where I wasn't... 80)

"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." - Samuel Johnson

by JediNole on Sep 20, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Go noles

I got to watch most of the games.
FSU we have something but it seems like we are still boarder line at times. The Def is much better and its showing but still learning. Im ok with that. The D-line is the group that seems to be the best at the moment. The LB and DB seems to be a step or 2 out of place at times. I think they need just more time. The Off. seems to be in the same boat but now that we are going into Conf play I think they will settle down and get into a ryithm. As for the RB Its nice if one donw work that the others can come in or if one needs a brake bame

Clemson has a team if they show up. I think they are the team to beat at the moment but they have to show up.
NCST is the same way and you all know they always play hard vs us. These two will be our season I think this ear.
UF I think we have closer to a 70% at beating them right now. Its not that dreaded 95% anymore. That still have tallent but its just not the same with Tebow gone. more trick and passing less rushing they need to get a FB back there too.

All and all I think this year is going to do us some good. I think one or 2 more tough fough losses and some solid wins and at lease an ACCCG appr. and next year I think we could fight for more.

Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry

by Desman on Sep 19, 2010 6:36 PM EDT reply actions  

I am MUCH less confident in FSU then I was 2 weeks ago

…And, surprisingly, it is because of the offense. The defense is about where I thought it would be, but let’s not get excited about holding a D-1 team to under 200 yards of offense just yet—BYU SUCKS ASS

Right now, Clempson, UM, UNC, and UF really scare me. BC is cause for concern because…..they are BC. This team has a loooooong way to go.

Oderint Dum Metuant

by DRusso97 on Sep 19, 2010 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

if it matters, I agree with everything. good post.

"…You can't get enough Lonnie Pryors on your football team." -Eddie Gran

by harper.rb on Sep 19, 2010 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks

But, for the record, I am not the least bit discouraged by the direction this program is headed in….

Oderint Dum Metuant

by DRusso97 on Sep 19, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

UVA scares me. They played well against USC. Disregarding that performance the way their schedule is setup before us is concerning. They didn’t play this week and next week they play VMI. Presumably they’ve been spending most of their time since USC preparing for us.

by theseminole on Sep 19, 2010 6:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Their schedule is scary.

This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.

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by Bud Elliott on Sep 19, 2010 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I stand by my fan-post!...

Virginia is a trap game. We better be ready. Another road game for us, with the road stint at UM the next week, we’re UVA’s “statement” game. Hopefully their decent showing in LA will help us go in focused.

by burkenole on Sep 19, 2010 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Everyone has played good against USC. A poor, poor Minnesota team hung with them until the end.

That should have been a game in which USC blew the doors off, but they didn’t, so I wouldn’t look too much into UVA’s performance against USC.

by TCHOP561 on Sep 19, 2010 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have the UVA game on tape.

Trojans poorly coached come out flat for opener.

This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.

Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 19, 2010 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

We should crush Wake.

They looked completely over matched against Stanford.

by fsunole23 on Sep 19, 2010 7:06 PM EDT reply actions  

You didn't waste any time on this one

I was thinking the dame thing about UVA, could be a trap game.

We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable!

by DocHoliday2 on Sep 19, 2010 7:13 PM EDT reply actions  

That's why I love this site

I left watching the game feeling happy that we won, encouraged by our defense but still concerned about our offense. But when I get the true stats, I am definitely feeling better about it. Ponder and his receivers are not hitting on all cylinders (I feel it will come) , but our O is doing fine.

Thanks

by jimmygnole on Sep 19, 2010 9:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Well in one particular instance

The first long drive went like clockwork until Reed’s team mate blind side him at the 15 and knocked the ball right into the BYU defenders hands at the 10 yard line. The blocker and Reed did not see each other but Bert was carrying the ball like a loaf of bread. It is irritating and Fisher was going crazy on the sidelines shaking his head and talking to himself. That is the kind of crap that can take an edge off an offense but it is also not something a defense can count on FSU giving them all the time. Without that cluster you are probably looking at a 41-10 game.

It does look like Gran has found his running back though and it is Ty Jones. The guy looked great. Good balance breaking tackles catching the ball, blocking. His legs are like tree stumps and he doesn’t go down on the first hit. Gran seems to prefer those backs that make people not want to tackle them anymore. You can see Gran’s influence also as he shows patience and then accelerates very well into the hole.

I just watched that game again, that BYU tackler that dove into Jones legs was knocked out cold and his helmet went sailing down the field.

We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable!

by DocHoliday2 on Sep 19, 2010 11:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Reed was holding

the ball in the wrong hand. He should’ve switched to the outside hand once he caught it. I was watching the catch and said reed needed to switch the ball to the outside and then boom, fumble. If I was fisher, I would’ve been pissed too since it was an error that shouldn’t have occured.

by mhauer on Sep 20, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm encouraged by the defensive improvement (realize BYU is not a great offense)

but, I am grateful that we are not playing Miami next week. (Only three weeks ’til Miami by the way)

"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly

by SeminoleMike on Sep 20, 2010 8:50 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm sick of everyone discounting the D's performance

just because it was BYU. I could be mistaken, but I don’t recall our D putting together a game like that against anyone last year. I was especially impressed the way they responded after giving up a couple of drives late in the first half by holding BYU to 39 yards in the second half.

And again, I know people want to say that those big slow Mormons got tired in the second half, but 39 yards, come on! That’s solid.

Oh, SeminoleMike, I realize you weren’t discounting our D’s performance, your comment just made me think of what a lot of my Seminole friends have said since Saturday.

by captaind7 on Sep 20, 2010 9:30 AM EDT reply actions  

I think it was a better defensive performance than any game last year.

But BYU is not nearly the offensive team that they were last year. The biggest thing this week was the pressure by the DLine. If they can continue to stope the run and create pressure, we will be in decent shape on D.

by nolesontop on Sep 20, 2010 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

BYU doesn't have to have a great offense for this to be a great defensive performance

as long as you are comparing it to our recent performances. I don’t think anyone is trying to compare it with the best defenses in the country.

How many sacks had BYU given up going in?

Also, despite the fact they have two quarterbacks that aren’t very good, they do two very different things with them (passing, option). Both of those things tore us up last year, and BYU couldn’t do anything with either on Saturday. To me, that’s an impressive improvement.

Also, BYU tried to do a lot of the same stuff OU did, but without success. Obviously, there’s a whole different talent level and team quality there, and OU might do the exact same thing to us tomorrow they did to us last weekend. But it is very encouraging that in OU we got beat by superior players, and this week we beat inferior players doing the same thing.

That means that there isn’t some glaring weakness in this defense or a giant hole in what we’ve been able to teach the players. It just means we aren’t good enough…yet. We’ll continue to get better and better raw talent, and our guys will continue to get better at what we do.

But we did exactly what a good defense would be expected to do against BYU, and maybe then some. How many games did we do that last year.

 

by LouC on Sep 20, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Their quarterbacks..

Heaps might not be very good yet, but he’s a freshman that seems to have a ton of talent. I think he’ll do well.

by David Rohe on Sep 20, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

BYU had allowed 0 sacks coming into the game

>>>-----------;;;-->CP7 for Heisman>>>-----------;;;-->

by RollNole5 on Sep 20, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

awesome stat there

FSU Defense 2010: Taking back 1st down.

by ricobert1 on Sep 20, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

The defense played well against BYU last year

When offenses are blowing teams out defenses tend to slack up and allow some garbage yards/points late in games. NC State gave up most of their yards/points to Cincinnati late in the game…they stopped pressuring and went more to prevent mode..

While the defensive performance this week was good, I hope the players do not get too excited about it or what they will do to Wake Forrest, anymore than they did against Samford.

by nolestuff on Sep 20, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

No it didn't. Not at all. 8.9 yards per play isn't well at all. The defense was awful.

This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.

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by Bud Elliott on Sep 20, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry just have to laugh at that again.

This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.

Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 20, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

This isn't in a blowout. This is in non-garbage time

See all those solid blue streaks? That’s awful defense.

This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.

Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 20, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Early thoughts on Wake this week?

Anyone care to put them out there?

I’m thinking the Noles run the ball really well again this week.

What are some thoughts on the D? Wake runs some interesting plays. I’m intrigued to see how Stoops plays them.

by NoleOrNever on Sep 20, 2010 2:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Wake is awful

This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.

Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 20, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nolestuff never got anything right on this board or the WC board

Which he does a good job of making it unreadable.

I have looked at a few Wake boards even they figure it will be 60 to nothing. Some of them thought Stanford could have scored 100 on them if they had wanted to.

Stoops was awfully animated trying to stop that last BYU touchdown and turn into a field goa. That would have given him two games without a touchdown.

We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable!

by DocHoliday2 on Sep 20, 2010 2:49 PM EDT reply actions  

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