BlogPoll & ACC Bowl Projections: Week 4
by Bud Elliott on Sep 22, 2010 9:28 AM EDT
in FSU Football
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PrintThis is our first entry in the 2010 BlogPoll. Brian allows voters to abstain until week four, and I do choose that option. Remember that we inspired this rule:
The Georgia vote (in the #1 slot) comes from Tomahawk Nation , which decided to make its preseason ballot based entirely on schedule strength. Do I like this? No. It creates a very, very silly ballot which won Mr. Bold by a huge margin and I thought seriously about spiking it. I decided against it since it's the preseason and I don't have any hard evidence that Vanderbilt is not a top ten team. But I am implementing a new guideline: if your ballot wins Mr. Bold by five or more points I'm removing it from that week's poll.
Good to see that Bryan understands the hypocrisy behind pre-season polling. We did place Vanderbilt in our top 10, which was based on projected schedule strength. After all, the only thing these teams have done so far is schedule. No games have been played.
This is not a power poll. I don't attempt to rank teams based on how good I think they are. I only rank teams based on their resume. What have they done? Not how talented are their players or what other polls project them to do, but what have they done? The poll is designed to be dynamic. I try to start from scratch every week.
I do attempt to reward teams for "quality losses," while punishing them for poor performances. I do not give excessive credit for stomping horrible teams. I reward quality play, win or lose, particularly against other good teams. I am not bumping team A 10 spots and docking team B 10 spots when team A beats team B by a field goal in what was essentially an equally played game. I like to reward playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punish losing to poor teams more harshly than I reward defeating poor teams. To that end, TCU and Boise will probably not climb much higher in my poll for the rest of the year because they don't really play anyone. And if those two don't blow out the weak competition every week they will start to slip in addition to not climbing.
I Reward Grinders. I reward those who play difficult schedules. Teams that play a tough team every week don't get to spend extra time preparing for their tough games, and they also don't face the attrition other teams face because they are able to pull their starters in blowouts. Fewer plays for important players reduces the chance those players will get injured.
Inside, see who I have in the BlogPoll and where I have teams going to bowl games.
TomahawkNation Ballot - Week 4
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -- |
| 2 | Oregon Ducks | -- |
| 3 | Ohio St. Buckeyes | -- |
| 4 | Texas Longhorns | -- |
| 5 | LSU Tigers | -- |
| 6 | Stanford Cardinal | -- |
| 7 | Florida Gators | -- |
| 8 | Oklahoma Sooners | -- |
| 9 | Michigan Wolverines | -- |
| 10 | Auburn Tigers | -- |
| 11 | Arizona Wildcats | -- |
| 12 | South Carolina Gamecocks | -- |
| 13 | TCU Horned Frogs | -- |
| 14 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | -- |
| 15 | Utah Utes | -- |
| 16 | Boise St. Broncos | -- |
| 17 | Iowa Hawkeyes | -- |
| 18 | Arkansas Razorbacks | -- |
| 19 | Air Force Falcons | -- |
| 20 | Clemson Tigers | -- |
| 21 | Georgia Bulldogs | -- |
| 22 | Oklahoma St. Cowboys | -- |
| 23 | Michigan St. Spartans | -- |
| 24 | USC Trojans | -- |
| 25 | Fresno St. Bulldogs | -- |
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings "
As you can see, ACC teams like FSU and Miami lack the quantity of good victories to overcome being dominated early on. What do you think of the poll? Give me your critique based on what has happened on the field so far.
Bowl Projections
| Bowl Game | Week 4 |
|---|---|
| Orange Bowl | Miami (8-4, 6-2) |
| Chick-fil-A Bowl (Atlanta) ACC #2 v. SEC 3/4/5 | FSU (8-4, 6-2) |
| Champs Sports Bowl (Orlando) ACC #3 v. BE #2/ ND | Clemson (8-4, 5-3) |
| Sun Bowl (El Paso) ACC #4 v. Pac 10 #4 | VT (8-4, 6-2) |
| Meineke Car Care Bowl (Charlotte) ACC #5 v. Big East #3 | GT (8-4, 6-2) |
| Music City Bowl (Nashville) ACC #6 v. SEC 6/7/8 | UNC (6-6, 3-5) |
| Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA) ACC #7 v. MWC #3 | BC (9-3, 5-3) |
| EagleBank Bowl (DC) ACC #8 v. Army or C-USA #6 | MD (6-6, 3-5) |
| Fight Hunger Bowl (San Fran) #9 | NCST (6-6, 3-5) |
*Remember that the "#2 ACC Team" is not necessarily the runner up, but the #2 choice of the bowls. Ditto for the rest of them. It's the # in which the bowls may select their team. The runner up may not, however, slip past the Sun Bowl. Being a small school up north, BC doesn't travel well and isn't an attractive option to bowl games attempting to make money for their city. The ACC really negotiated some awful bowl tie-ins after the first three.
Next week we'll have a completely new set of projections.
Current Projected ACC Wins
5.65 FSU
5.28 CLEM
5.25 BC
2.93 NCST
2.75 MD
2.05 WAKE
5.70 GT
5.63 MIA (Miami wins the tie-breaker)
5.53 VT
3.23 UNC
2.10 UVA
1.93 DUKE
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Did you ever expect...
The day FSU was ranked, but it wasn’t FSU?
by Trus1te on Sep 22, 2010 9:38 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Oregon #2
I’m taking it that is because of the drubbing they laid on Tennessee?
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Indeed
Going cross-country like that is always tough.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 22, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
And it looks even better when viewed in context of 31-17 by UF
a game I didn’t see but that seemed close throughout.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
It was a one score lead
into the 4th quarter.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
That fake punt got the Gators going in the 3rd qtr. I think it was tied up at that point.
FEAR THE SPEAR!!!!!!!!!
yeah think that's right
Good call there as they were stalling pretty bad.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Indeed.. they have been on offense extremely underwhelming
And until they can manage a consistent center to QB exchange with out trying out for the PBA they should not see the top ten. other than that looks about right.
"I am not now at all sure that the tendency to treat the whole thing as a kind of vast game is really good - certainly not for me who find that kind of thing only too fatally attractive." - J R R Tolkein
Thank you for not rewarding Wisconsin for it's home "win" Saturday.
To continuously credit them for scheduling like they do is garabage. They play 4 road games this year (UNLV was a home game — more Badger fans, 15,000, than Rebel fans). Next year, again, they don’t play a road game until Mid-October in a season where they miss Ohio State…?
2011
9-3 UNLV
9-10 Oregon State
9-17 Northern Illinois @Chicago, IL
9-24 South Dakota
10-1 Iowa
10-8 Michigan
10-15 @ Minnesota
11-29 @ Northwestern
11-5 Purdue
11-12 @ Penn State
11-19 Michigan State
12-3 @ Illinois
Has anyone done stats
On the influence of factors like traveling cross country or home field etc.?
by DownByTheRiverWalkinOnWater on Sep 22, 2010 6:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Oregon looks good, as does a few teams from the PAC-10
Usually, the PAC-10 sucks and USC dominates. Good to see some strength from other teams in that conference.
Do you think FSU gets bumped out of ACC #2 if UNC, Clemson or especially GT ends up the ACCCG runner up?
I
by TampaLawNole on Sep 22, 2010 10:18 AM EDT reply actions
I dont think UNC would bump FSU....
Especially since they were just in Atlanta for the season opener. Clemson is the only real threat IMO.
by Mr. Tito Carlos on Sep 22, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
UNC no because they already went to Atlanta and who would they be finishing runner-up to?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 22, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Not really
A couple of reasons. Depending on the records, FSU could have potentially one less loss than the ACCCG runnerup. And like someone said, its the second choice not really the second place team. As long as the runner up doesnt go pass the music city or sun bowl I believe, the Peach Bowl(chic-fil-a) will have a choice.
If FSU is within 1 game of 2nd place, FSU will more than likely go to the #2 spot.
Clemson COULD end up there, but Tech was there a couple years ago and got drubbed.
I think they would take you guys over Georgia Tech.
Blogger So Dear
"Meet me on the Quad at midnight" Skip Prosser
Lots of Noles in Atlanta
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 22, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I could see us getting bumped for Clemson again, unfortunately.
Could probably bring a lot more fans, primarily due to being closer, but also their fanbase generally could get excited for a bowl of that tier, as opposed to our still-dynasty-spoiled group.
But perhaps I’m reacting to what the true-to-their name Gator Bowl committee did to us recently, in our own state.
dont complain
They took us last year while we were 6-6. Either way I don’t mind FSU going to the Champs sports bowl. I live right outside of Orlando and went to it two years ago. Best time of my life. Lost my voice for three weeks.
Bowden's last game = hot ticket.
Not complaining as much as illustrating — which your point does as well — that the selection goes to the highest bidder… and the bowl will do whatever it can to justify getting the team that will bring the most fans/highest TV ratings.
im cool with 8-4 and probably one of the most watched bowls
vs Florida, South Carolina, LSU, or Arkansas
Don't think they rematch us with UF.
Those were special circumstances leading up to the 5th quarter in French Quarter and then the Mulligan. (Let the latter not be spoken of.)
I was just pointing out who could be
the 3/4/5 options from the SEC.
I think Michigan and LSU are too high.
LSU barely beat a depleted UNC team and their other wins are Vandy and Miss. St.
Michigan’s defense is terrible and Rodriguez clearly intends to salvage his job by running “shoelaces” into the ground. They have beaten no one.
I would bump Arizona and Nebraska into the top 10.
They did drub a pretty decent MissSt team and handled vandy on the road easily. Vandy beat Ole Miss
Michigan did smoke UConn and have a nice road win over a decent Notre Dame team. If they run him into the ground they will drop, no?
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 22, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
UConn
isn’t really good at all. They have Todman and a couple great linebackers but that’s it. Frazier really holds back their offense. Some of their DT’s and DE’s in rotation are really small. Like 230 DE’s and 270 DT’s
Not saying they are good but Michigan did smoke them.
They won’t rise up this week.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 22, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm just saying its not a quality win
much like our game against BYU isn’t a quality win.
Misunderstood your point.
If we had 2 of our wins over BYU I'd have us in.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 22, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps!
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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I would imagine we would really need
to be solid in all aspects of the game and win by 21+ for this game to make any type of statement correct?
class of 99
Agreed
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 22, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
21 may be a bit low really.
Wake may have a decent offense this year but national perception is they are garbage. I doubt we are able to gain any respect this game. Even if it turns to a rout people will just say “Well its just Wake”
class of 99
Line is what, 18/
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 22, 2010 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I was at the Michigan game
this past weekend and the Michigan D was very ugly (looked surprised and unprepared, bad tackling and coverage, awful actually)…UMASS ran a very simple/slow offense with some misdirection and ran all over that D. I think they had 100+ rushing and passing in the first half, lots of grumbling in the stands…this is a Umass team that should not have been in that game, lots of mistakes that could have ended real bad for Mich. It reminded me alot of the OU game and how our D looked against OU…
by NoleforLife on Sep 22, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
too bad rankings arent based on fear of playing
These non- qualifyer teams are all the rage, but do you fear playing any besides Boise? Even TCU is no more threatening than a Georgia Tech.
Anyway, everyone must have gone to bed when LSU came within 10 seconds of losing to a decimated NC team. Which brings up another point, if you win by 3 or less at home, aka Auburn, why are you getting any credit? From what I saw, Clemson is the best team in the ACC. Is there any question they win that game at home?
TCU is more frightening than Boise
Better athletes and future pros on TCU. You also know they are bringing the D and planning on crushing as many people as possible. Boise doesn’t bring the same kind of rep.
by osceolafan2.0 on Sep 22, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Dont think so
Boise State beat TCU last year. This hatred for Boise State really needs to stop. Boise has had more first rounders than us lately, they have very good QB, they have very good WR’s, and they have good defensive line that murdered Virginia Tech. Boise State would beat TCU again this year. The only team I am about 95% sure they wouldn’t beat is Alabama. Alabama has power, speed, and they are by far the most disciplined. They have more discipline than some NFL teams.
Boise is garbage
and they play even more garbage teams. Just because they play well against 2 decent teams a year doesn’t mean they deserve any respect. At all. They play two real games and 10 scrimmages. If you believe in the FEI rankings at all you would concur. Their record last year was 13-0 and they were ranked as the #16 team in the country.
It isn’t hatred, it is reality. Play a garbage schedule, your ranking reflects it. It doesn’t matter that no teams wants to play home and homes against them and they can’t get the match ups they want blah blah. The fact is they beat up on crap teams. If/when they are able to get a real schedule then they will be evaluated, by this site and others that know what playing a real schedule means, based on that improved schedule.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Opinion
That’s an opinion. Reality is they have beaten the best team in the Pac -10 two years running(Oregon). Reality is they beat TCU last year. Reality is they have beaten Virginia Tech. Opinion is they play garbage. Sure looks like Nevada and Fresno States are legit teams. Reality is most of their teams suck. FSU seem to get buy on two “big” games the entire 90’s. The ACC was horrible during the 90’s. Miami would kill a weak Big East schedule. I just don’t understand why people disrespect them this year. Alabama is the only real elite uber team this year. Everyone else is reloading, rebuilding or going through coaching changes.
Ok this is
an important distinction here. THIS IS NOT OPINION.
Most ACC teams from the 90’s would win 9-11 games with Boise States schedule today. Their strength of schedule last year was 104. Maybe a bit higher this year but don’t see it cracking 90. They deserve and have earned no respect. The few teams you named they beat over a few years pails in comparison to what real teams have to do every year, week in and week out.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Just to add on here
I’m not trying to be a jerk, but seriously stop listening to what ESPN says about Boise St. They don’t know what the hell they are talking about. In fact all they have is OPINION and base their nonsensical babel on no facts at all.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
OK
We agree to disagree. I think Boise State has a very good team and in a season when traditional powers, except Alabama, are reloading I think they have a team that could most people. And I agree about ESPN sometimes. Some people say stupid things(Robert Smith, Dr. Lou, and Mark May a lot) and they have smart people as well. They do hype the SEC a little too much, but everyone does. For it being the best conference can someone explaing how Alabama and Florida have three combined SEC losses in the last two years(and two of them are to each other)? Either way I think Boise State and they have shown it on the field so far the last two years. And it could be just as easy for them to have “let down” games against inferior opponets. Ole Miss lost to Jax State. I think they deserve a little bit more respect. Not saying they are National Champs. Just think they could beat every team except Alabama. They have a shot at Alabama, but I highly doubt it. Alabama is an NFL team playing College Football right now.
Glad to know
you don’t think they are National Title caliber.
I agree Boise could beat a whole lot of teams in NCAA, even the really good ones. But that isn’t football. It is a weekly grind. Say if Boise wins against a top team, they then get to turn around and play William and Mary School for the Dumb, Deaf, and Blind. Say they beat UF, or Alabama. Those teams may have had to face, Georgia, Arky, LSU, South Carolina the week before or the week after. That is a HUGE DIFFERENCE.
The ‘let down game’ is completely different for a team like UF, Bama, or even FSU. If Boise has a let down game they are doing it against terrible opponents and more than likely win. If UF has a let down game they lose to any number of high quality opponents they have left on the schedule.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Heres the thing. Bud always speaks about depth and Size.
You have to have both. Boise has neither. If Boise St played in a real conference that you would expect some attrition they’d get smoked. Just think about if for a second. FSU played OU and came back with a dinged LT and a QB with a severe tricep bruise. Tell me who Boise is gonna face this year that can deal that kind of damage to a team. VT is noted for being historically undersized at all positions so they couldn’t abuse Boise’s size. I bet you a number of the Big 10 teams would abuse Boise. Sure you can stop the run in the 1st Q. But tell me how well you think Boise slows down Wisconsin’s running game, or Iowa’s or Michigan St. They routinely give 230lb RB’s the rock 30 times a game. When your DE’s is 260ish and your LB’s are all in the 230lb range and your base defense is a 4-2-5 you aren’t gonna be able to consistently stop power running games.
Team GOLD
Here are their only tough games followed by who they play next
VT then a week off then Wyoming
Or Oregon St then New Mexico St.
Team GOLD
And that same VT team then went and lost to
James Madison….and good to average D-1AA team. They’ve had good seasons in the recent history but they are average over the last 10 years.
Team GOLD
Slight correction - JMU is a top 5 1-AA program
They were not good in the 90’s and early 2000’s. They caught a break when Justin Rascatti transferred to JMU for Louisville. They won a national championship and have been in contention most years since. They beat App State (I was at that game) in the regular season and should have beat them in the playoffs the year before (fumbled with just over a minute left and the lead when they should’ve been taking knees). Rodney Landers was the best player in 1-AA two years ago, and they beat out Va Tech for him (Va Tech wanted him as a safety, JMU wanted him as a QB).
There is still no excuse for JMU to beat Va Tech, but they are hardly average to good at the 1-AA level. They are an elite program at that level.
Can't Agree about top 5 program
They have had great seasons
but heres the results of the past few years
2009 6-5
2008 12-2
2007 9-4
2006 9-3
2005 7-4
Now clearly there are two outliers 6-5 and 12-2 but the rest show a team that is typically going to get you a 9 win season. Therefore I redact my statement of average and call them good. But top 5 programs dont go 6-5. I wouldn’t consider them to be elite at that level.
Team GOLD
You left out 2004, when they won the National Championship
Keep in mind, JMU plays in the toughest conference in 1-AA, by far. Villanova, UMass, Richmond, William & Mary, Delaware, and New Hampshire. These teams are in the top 15 year in and year out. That being said…
2009 – Almost beat MD (up by 14 in the 4th quarter). Lost their starting QB so they had to start a Freshman QB. Won the last 4 games of the season once the QB started to get comfortable.
2008 – Best team in the country throughout the year. Lost to Montana in the Semifinals when Player of the Year Rodney Landers was lost in the 1st half to injury.
2007 – Lost to App St 28-27 in the 1st round of playoffs due to a last second fumble described earlier.
2006 – Lost to 35-31 to Youngstown State in the 1st round.
2005 – 7-4 after losing Justin Rascatti, who was the best player in school history
2004 – Won the national championship
At this point it is nitpicky, but I don’t think there are 5 other teams that can beat that production since 2004. App St., Montana (but they play in a bad conference), Richmond, and possibly Villanova and Delaware.
My gripe with Boise...
Is they catch two decent(not great) BCS teams to start the year, so they can plan all off season for their two big games, and then they can coast thru that joke WAC schedule and be fresh for their bowl game.
I would liked to see them have played Oregon at the end of last year instead of in game 1, think the results would have been different.
And please don’t pat them on the back for beating VaTech, they are always over rated in the preseason.
by karmanole on Sep 22, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think it would be awesome for them
to get Oregon this year for a bowl. HAHA.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Please don't cite Nevada as being "legit" because they beat Cal....
I had this argument on the radio yesterday, as well as last season, about Nevada being a legit team and Kaepernick not being mentioned as a Heisman candidate. Nevada’s schedule right now is ranked 115th. Last year they ran up scores on UNLV, Idaho, San Jose, and NMexico St 258-100. When they played “decent” teams – N.Dame, Boise, SMU (Bowl Game) they were outscored 124-43. I admire Fresno and Pat Hill, especially the OOC schedule they play (try it Boise), but even if they win at Missy, their next 5 games are Cal-Poly, Hawaii, NMexicoSt, @ San Jose and @ LaTech. It is not an opinion that these teams play garbage – it is REALITY.
Exactly.
But the bobble heads on TV rarely if ever admit this. They live to hype up teams with good records. And that is about it.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
And, some people choose to believe them and take it as truth......
2011 – Boise………
9-3 @ Mississippi
9-10 Wyoming
9-17 @ Toledo
9-24 Tulsa
10-1 Utah
SCURRED???
Thats what i was getting at earlier
If you don’t have a totally objective ranking system based on schedule, game location, and margin of victory, than I would argue it should be totally subjective, meaning would team x be afraid of team y.
Though I do appreciate the effort to designate relevant factors in the article. but tje reality is nobody in their right mind would put money on Nevada versus FSU.
You are really projecting a lot into my post
I don’t hate Boise. Don’t feel anything towards them actually. But TCU is a physically punishing, hard hitting, defense first team. And beating a team by 7 points in a tight game doesn’t just elevate stick you head and shoulders above them. TCU has the same murderous defense as last year and an offense with a pulse this year. Boise is basically the same as they were last year. Last year they would have split 10 games 5-5. This year I say TCU wins 6 or 7 out of 10.
And comparing Boise to what FSU has done recently is stupid. Is that supposed to prove BSU is elite? Comparing them to a team that couldn’t win it’s own division? Or you just felt like taking a shot at your own team to attempt to prove a point that you had no good way of proving?
by osceolafan2.0 on Sep 22, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
AND while we are on schedules (or lack thereof)
Not letting the Big Ten off the hook……
Saturday, September 25
1. Central Michigan at Northwestern
2. Northern Illinois at Minnesota
3. Toledo at Purdue
4. Bowling Green at Michigan
5. Temple at Penn State
6. Akron at Indiana
7. Ball State at Iowa
8. Eastern Michigan at Ohio State
9. Austin Peay at Wisconsin
10. Northern Colorado at Michigan State
that is pretty embarrassing
I just can't figure
out why they have so many undefeated teams still. HAHA.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Defending them to a point
I mentioned the draft, basically to prove that they have athlethes. It seems everyone is of the opionion they have scrubs. And I agree about the grind. Yes they dont have to play with injuries. I get it. But the system of college football is one game scenarios. If Boise State had been in that Clemson/Auburn game, I would bet the house, the car, my neighbor’s house that they would lose the next game. And I don’t even gamble. But by bowl time everyone is pretty much healthy and on the same level. And while they don’t have depth, they have enough of a good starting unit to bet everyone except Alabama. And that is really for this year. Everything has kind of lined up for them. Everyone reloading, rebuilding and only Alabama is an all-conquering team. That is all I am saying.
I see Boise as a lot like FSU in the late 1970s or early 80s.
It is a team that runs a sophisticated passing offense that is difficult to defend when executed well and they execute well. They also have legitimate Div. 1 skill personnel, although maybe not the top of the line. They do not have the best defense in the world, but it is capable of getting some stops and slowing people down. Ultimately, they believe they can outscore anyone they face. Except for the the top 5 elite teams or so, they probably can on a one game off basis.
But the inverse is true as regarding one game scenarios
Which is every elite team could beat BSU as well. And in fact they would be favored. Between last season and this one, BSU has played a grand total of 2 elite defenses. Against one they scored 17 pts and the other 19. So do you think BSU beats Bama, uf, Texas etc while scoring less than 20 pts? Or do you expect them to suddenly increase how they score against elite defenses? Both of them are possible, but they aren’t what I would consider probable.
by osceolafan2.0 on Sep 22, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
No--I said except for elite teams, they could probably outscore them.
I don’t think they are an elite team. If they ever get put in a NC game, they will get smoked. I see them as a second-tier team that could compete and possibly beat most of the other top-25 teams other than the elite teams. I also think that if they played a schedule like the teams in the BCS conference, they would lose a couple of games.
See that is the problem with their schedule
If they ever get put in a NC game, they will get smoked
That may not be true. They very well could win. But they didn’t have to face the rigors, injuries, attrition that the team they would be facing did. Boise could rest guys plenty, work on how to beat whatever team they looked to be matched up with every day in practice. They wouldn’t have to devote all practice during the season to beating a quality opponent week in and week out. That is why they should never get a shot. Not until they get a real schedule. If they won or even got close to winning an NC game, people would see that as a vindication. “See they deserve to be there, they are just as good, blah blah blah.” But that is just not reality.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I was replying to Mateo
He appears to be more of the opinion that BSU vs anyone but Bama is more of an even match. I pretty much agree with what you said about BSU, but I would probably put them a little further down than 6th.
by osceolafan2.0 on Sep 22, 2010 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I would want to put
South Carolina higher perhaps, not sure LSU or Michigan should be that high. Would probably move Stanford down.
This list will look completely different as we will learn a lot about some of these teams next week.
Upcoming Matchups.
Arizona vs Cal
South Carolina @ Auburn
LSU vs West Virginia
Bama @ Arkansas
Two weeks down the road,
Texas Vs Oklahoma
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
Texas' defense is amazing
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 22, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
yessir
Looking forward to that OU/Texas game. Lot of great matchups this weekend though. I thought this past Saturday was a better week of college football than the “Monster Saturday” or whatever ESPN called it the week before. Could be a great one. Plus it is more enjoyable when FSU thumps their opponent.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Hype
That had to hype on paper looked like good matchups, but in reality were blowouts to those who really knew the teams.
Very true.
I would say the ‘on paper’ part would have been the rankings those nut jobs gave teams without knowing them.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Immovable object
Irressistable force.
I’ll be watching that game as long as we aren’t playing at the same time.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
October 2nd....
Besides Tx – Oklahoma
Florida – Alabama, Stanford-Oregon…. Playoffs begin!
Wow
NICE. AND should be a fairly easy win for FSU that weekend, which like I said before, makes it that much easier to sit back and watch other good teams slug it out.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
One of the few times I hope we get a noon start so I can spend the rest of the afternoon flipping between all the other games.
Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K.
What about
NCState over Fresno St? Think they would bump Frenso off for me.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
LSU and Michigan are way too high
If I were betting on the games I would put money on FSU on the teams you ranked 19th through 25th.
FSU now ranks 17th in the Sagarin poll, 23 on the Dunkel power index and 25th in the ESPN poll. I am much more confident this year that FSU does not stagnate and play on the same level or regress. We have better coaches than that and Fisher won’t allow it. I am seeing better play week to week and more emotion from the team than I have for a long time.
I think FSU will continue to surprise people and they will have to rise in the polls. The vegas oddsmakers will insure this as major polls will have to follow their lead if I am right. You can’t have polls not recognizing FSU when the oddsmakers are picking them to win big. I think it is 19.5 with Wake if I remember right.
I think we also now have a legitimate running threat in the Gran mold who will grind out the tough yardage and keep drives moving. People are not going to want to tackle Jones. I like what I am seeing. If I am right you will enjoy the Wake game.
Back to LSU I was surprised frankly they beat Miss State. I just don’t think they are that good. Frankly I agree with the ESPN poll also which has UF falling to 10th. They haven’t showed me anything. Tennessee is ranked 59th right now and BYU 54th on a composite average of polls, the massey. FSU beat a better team worse than UF beat Tennessee.
We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable!
But the point is Resume
up to this point. FSU has one win against even a halfway decent opponent and a blowout loss. As the season moves along, and they get some wins, their resume will improve.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
LSU
beat miss st 29-7 (they kicked 5 fgs) while getting 5 picks and not turning the ball over at home. if you told me that before the game i would have guessed 48-7
5 FG's
Ouch. Didn’t know that. I had that game recorded and saw the score and deleted it. Kinda wish I checked it out now.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I like your optimism
and I’m exited about this Nole team, more so than in a very long time. But, it would be nice to fly under the radar for a couple weeks. I’d much rather see a slow steady climb in the polls rather than in one week and out the next. So, I don’t want to get too carried away just yet. Maybe we caught BYU at the perfect time (terrible QB situ) and maybe OU isn’t really that great (I think they are). Maybe BYU’s just lousy. Point is, I haven’t seen enough from this team yet to make a decent assessment. (or most other teams either)
On LSU, Miles is way overrated, IMO. He always has NFL caliber players, but with the Saban affect fading a little more every year…they’re getting a little more average every year.
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Sep 22, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
UF has one win against a halfway decent opponent as you say Tennessee
That is unless you consider Miami of Ohio and USF halfway decent opponents and they struggled in both games and the Tennessee game was close late also. I think UF is getting a lot of mileage on what they did in the past few years and now what they are doing now.
Like you say though it will all even out. I think they struggle against Kentucky and are blown out in a barn burner against Alabama.
I think Nebraska is ranked a bit low also. They are having some pretty impressive wins. Arkansas might be rated a little low here also. I think they win against LSU and they are 3-0 also.
We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable!
Right
That is what I mean by halfway decent. FBS teams. FSU has only played 2 and got destroyed in one of them and won the other albeit convincingly.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
UF
Has beaten 1.5 teams combined. All three teams are horrible. 1/2 teams each. Combined they equal the 1.5. If USF was good they would have beaten the Gators.
If USF kept running the ball they would have beaten the Gators
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Sep 22, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh
probably not, but it would have been much closer. BJ imploded passing the ball after his first drive (whatever early drive they scored a TD on). Thought he had an arm comparable to the top 1% of all NFL QB’s…ever. Slight miscalculation.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I should have added
Wake is going to be a good measuring stick for FSU. Stanford absolutely blew them up 68-28. I am anxious to see how the FSU offense and defense measures up against those stats.
We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable!
Well I'll say for Wake
traveling out to the Left Coast like that is never an easy order. We should still soundly thump them, but I’m not expecting a 35+ point beatdown.
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
Me neither
20-24 points. Could see a 42-21 win.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
You think the misdirection will work that well on us?
I’d hope for somewhere closer to 35-14 (same margin, better point output for the D).
Shot a Gator in Jean Shorts just to watch him die.
35-14
Going into 4th Quarter. They get a garbage time TD and so does FSU.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
FSU-WF will be much closer. Grobe has his teams better prepared for in-conference games.
That said, we should still dominate.
WF has abandoned film study for FSU game in lieu of more practice time...
Bud linked to the story already.
You don’t abandon film study unless you’re convinced that it won’t do you any good anyway.
Grobe’s sees the FSU game as a loss and is going into hard-core rebuilding mode to see if he can salvage his season with better play in games that Wake can win down the line.
"My mistress is pooped, the reds have Oklahoma, and I'm going to bed."
-Hodge Podge, Bloom County
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. "
"In practice, there is."-Yogi Berra
As much as I would like to disagree with this I can't.
We’ve been practicing from 3:30-7 all week, which is going to leave players exhausted.
Grobe also said all spots are open on the field, but I doubt there’s too much shake up.
Blogger So Dear
"Meet me on the Quad at midnight" Skip Prosser
That was my first
reaction to this in another post, "Not a great way to keep the legs under your worn out players between two long road trips."
How intense is the extra practice? Or is it more like walk throughs and teaching guys on the field. Kind of like film review just on the field. Or are they out there running full bore, sprints, hitting, tackling, etc?
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Meh. I think this is part over-reaction, part coach-speak, part motivational.
I wouldn’t read too much into it. Again, I still think we stomp WF, but don’t expect 90 points on the board…
I don't see how this can be a true measuring stick,
except maybe for us not being good. If we blow them out, it just shows that we did what we should to a crappy team, a la the Samford game. If we don’t play well, then there may be some cause for concern.
>>>-----------;;;-->CP7 for Heisman>>>-----------;;;-->
I think it is a measuring stick to see if we can continue to build off a win.
In the recent past, we have had good wins followed by epic let downs. This is not a good team. We need to come out and take care of business and put the game away early.
Yeah, but in the past the team was ill-prepared and coached,
all we can glean from this is what we know: Jimbo has instituted a system that prepares the players mentally and physically each week. I think we are essentially saying the same thing, the only way we will learn anything of substance that can be applied for the rest of the season is if we lay a stink bomb.
>>>-----------;;;-->CP7 for Heisman>>>-----------;;;-->
I think we are more or less on the same page.
I agree that winning this week will not give us an indication of how good we are. Winning it even by 100 points would not mean we are going to win the ACC or go undefeated. But I do think that coming out and taking care of business will at least mean that Jimbo’s message of playing hard every game is starting to take hold. In that sense, I think it is an important game.
Whipping crappy teams is a step in the right direction
Last year crappy teams had career nights on us. The prior seasons we would always drop at least 1 game against a crappy team every year. Before we even think about being dominant we need to be able to count on beating the teams who shouldn’t be on the same field as us. That will allow us to be in better shape for the 3 or 4 games a year we have a shot at losing.
by osceolafan2.0 on Sep 22, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
OT but a fact you might be interested in
BYU has 13 players out for next game including the starting quarterback. It is hard to say FSU is not playing with emotion now.
We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable!
by DocHoliday2 on Sep 22, 2010 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Wait playing with emotion is measured by how many players you injure?
>>>-----------;;;-->CP7 for Heisman>>>-----------;;;-->
RollNole5
I see you are looking for an opening for drama, please nip it in the bud. When 13 players go out in one game it does imply they were facing a very physical opponent. See here is way it is, when teams face a very fired up hard hitting team it increases the risk of injury. That is football and that is the game we are talking about here.
We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable!
by DocHoliday2 on Sep 23, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Nebraska should be higher than #14
The Washington win was extremely impressive, regardless of your thoughts on Washington.
If Oregon should be rewarded for the Tennessee win, you have to reward Nebraska appropriately.
WAR PAINT OF TN
Vegas Top 30
In last week’s installment of the Las Vegas Rankings, provided by former oddsmaker Kenny White, we touched on the big jump by Stanford. White pushed the Cardinal up nine spots from 21 to 12 after the club blitzed UCLA 35-0 in Week 2. Last Saturday, head coach Jim Harbaugh and company put forth another eye-opening performance, destroying Wake Forest, 68-24.
Once again, White made adjustments and move Stanford up to the ninth position in this week’s LV rankings. We’re going to find out how good the Cardinal are in the next three weeks as they play at Notre Dame (37), at Oregon (4) and versus USC (15). And don’t forget that the Irish (45-38), Ducks (51-42) and Trojans (55-21) will all be looking to exact revenge on the Red and White from last year’s woodshed treatment.
Alabama (1) remains in the top spot for the fourth consecutive week, and the SEC still has seven schools ranked in the Top 30. However, it’s safe to say that the SEC is the Crimson Tide and then everybody else, for now. Similar to Stanford, head coach Nick Saban’s troops will face a three-game stretch at Arkansas (10), versus Florida (11) and at South Carolina (21). If ‘Bama manages to get through this gauntlet unscathed the folks in Tuscaloosa might want to start making plans for the BCS Championship from Arizona in early January, if they haven’t already.
The Big 10 and Big 12 both had five schools ranked in Week 4, while the ACC has four. In the offseason, the Mountain West pushed for an automatic BCS bid and it’s hard to argue against the conference. Not that the pollsters look at White’s rankings (they actually do), the second best squad according to him is TCU, plus Utah (23) is holding steady too. The other seven teams aren’t that strong, but it’s fair to say they’d match up well against the Big East, who still has no teams ranked by White.
Below is a complete breakdown of this week’s LV Rankings from White.
Las Vegas Rankings Top 30 – Week 4
Rank School Rating Last Week AP Rank
1 Alabama 119.4 1 1
2 Texas Christian 116.8 3 4
3 Ohio State 116.5 2 2
4 Oregon 116.0 4 5
5 Boise State 115.5 6 3
6 Texas 114.7 7 7
7 Nebraska 114.6 10 6
8 Oklahoma 114.2 5 8
9 Stanford 113.7 12 16
10 Arkansas 113.3 16 10
11 Florida 113.3 8 9
12 Arizona 112.7 18 14
13 Iowa 112.2 9 18
14 Miami, Fl. 112.1 13 19
15 Southern California 112.0 11 20
16 Penn State 111.9 15 23
17 LSU 111.8 19 15
18 Auburn 111.6 20 17
19 Wisconsin 111.5 14 11
20 Georgia 110.7 17 NR
21 South Carolina 110.4 24 12
22 Michigan 109.9 21 21
23 Utah 109.7 30 13
24 Florida State 109.6 35 28
25 Oregon State 109.2 25 24
26 Virginia Tech 109.1 40 NR
27 Clemson 109.0 26 33
28 Missouri 108.9 22 31
28 Michigan State 108.9 28 25
30 Texas A&M 108.5 29 40
30 Nevada 108.5 36 27
Next Nine: California, Fresno State, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Air Force, Boston College
Dropped out of Top 30: California (22), North Carolina (26)
by vegasnole on Sep 22, 2010 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Capwins.com
My bud has a website where he loves talking about the point spreads and all that stuff. If you wanna come in and share your analysis. It would be cool to have a few fellow FSU guys there.
Also , I’m not sure what the rules are on posting links. This site is geared towards talking points spreads and don’t see how it would be competition to sbnation . If it it feel free to delete my link. I like this place and don’t wanna get booted from it :)
Good information thanks
As you can see the vegas boys are not that keen on LSU or Michigan either. They also push Nebraska up pretty high. FSU is beginning to show up in quite a few top 25s.
I know they are in BYU’s top 25.
We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable!
Interesting that Fresno State
made the list, yet are still dogs to Ole Miss according to Vegas… not sure what to think here.
It's not a ranking of who he thinks are the best teams
It’s what they’ve accomplished to date.
>>---l>
Do you think NCState
though should take Fresno’s on this list?
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh, NC State looked like garbage against UCF
And both beat Cinci at home. I’ll go with Bud on this one.
>>---l>
But is is resume
right? Just kinda playing devil’s advocate. Up to this point Fresno has only been in two games. They both beat the same team and NC State has the advantage of beating 2 real teams and a crap team. Fresno just has the one real team and a crap team.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh, I guess you could argue it that way
If it was two really bad teams I’d call it even, but UCF is a step above Western Carolina.
>>---l>
I think the important
thing to take away from NC State is how much better they looked in their second real game of the season. Had a 23-7 lead over Cincy headed into the 4th. But you are right about the UCF win being ugly.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I think State will get 7 or 8 wins this year if Wilson stays healthy
I think they’re a pretty solid team.
Blogger So Dear
"Meet me on the Quad at midnight" Skip Prosser
Agreed
I could see 7-8 wins with a bowl win.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 22, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, I just figured a team that played well enough
to make Bud’s top 25 would be favored against an obviously subpar Ole Miss.
Is Vegas missing something here?
Well I agree with vegas on the line
The poll makes no claim towards who would beat who in certain games. A team could have played better than another to a certain point, but would not be favored in a match-up with the team who has played worse.
>>---l>
The vegas poll give an general idea of which teams they think are worthy
In the Vegas poll as I mentioned they also are willing to bet money on FSU winning games against Michigan State, Fresno State, USC, Oklahoma State, Air Force.
The five teams they have near FSU rated slightly over they would bet on are. Utah,
Michigan, South Carolina, Georgia and Wisconsin. That is fairly close to the way I see things also.
It is the way I look at things. Which team is better than the other one right now what would happen if they play each other next weekend.
They have LSU 17th and FSU 24th. That will change when LSU loses another one which will be soon.
We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable!
Spot On
I agree 100% with your rankings until #19 Air Force. And pretty much the same throughout the remainder.
class of 99
Probably overrating the uvonn win now. They will drop.
This team will improve in '10... on its 16-16 conference record over the last 4 years.... after losing 20 games in the last 4 years... after having the 7th worst major-conference defense... after not even winning its own division in the ACC in the last 4.
Tomahawk Nation: Nole-Holds-Barred Analysis of FSU Sports!
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 23, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Conn
and Cincy not exactly turning into resume helpers.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
by onebarrelrum on Sep 23, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
All I know is...
Vandy beat Ole Miss, therefore they can stop being the perennial “shitty team” reference by SOME members of the TN staff (cough cough Bud cough cough).
Fear the Spear? Nah…Fear the Dores!
Formerly known as Randall W. Spetman
That is the thing with polls
It is really hard for me to believe that FSU would not polish off ND, Conn and Mass in short order.
We are "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented." says Fisher.
The process is real, make no mistake, it gets stronger and stronger day by day, it is unstoppable!
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