ACC Bowl Projections & BlogPoll Top-25 Ballot: Week 5

Here are my Atlantic Coast Conference Bowl Projections through 5 weeks.  

Bowl Game Week 4 Week 5
Orange Bowl Miami (8-4, 6-2) Miami (9-3, 6-2)
Chick-fil-A Bowl ACC #2 v. SEC 3/4/5 FSU (8-4, 6-2) FSU (8-4, 6-2)
Champs Sports Bowl ACC #3 v. BE #2/ ND Clemson (8-4, 6-2) Clemson (8-4, 5-3)
Sun Bowl ACC #4 v. Pac 10 #4 VT (8-4, 6-2) VT (8-4, 6-2)
Meineke Car Care Bowl ACC #5 v. Big East #3 GT (8-4, 6-2) NCST (8-4, 4-4)
Music City Bowl ACC #6 v. SEC 6/7/8 UNC (6-6, 3-5) GT (7-5, 5-3)
Independence Bowl ACC #7 v. MWC #3 BC (9-3, 5-3) UNC (6-6, 4-4)
EagleBank Bowl ACC #8 v. Army or C-USA #6 MD (6-6, 3-5) BC (8-4, 4-4)
Fight Hunger Bowl #9 NCST (6-6, 3-5) MD (6-6, 3-5)

The conference race is still extremely tight, though this weekend will cause some separation.  Remember that the Bowls do not have to follow the exact order of finish.  They select based on attractive matchup and impact on the local economy (how many fans will you bring).

The big loser this week is BC which looks to potentially be mailing in the year by pulling the redshirt off its promising true freshman quarterback.  As you see below, I have adjusted them downward.

Here are my current projected conference records to the exact projection:

ACC Wins Team ACC Wins Team
5.75 FSU 5.83 VT
5.35 CLEM 5.73 MIA
4.40 NCST 4.78 GT
4.33 BC 3.48 UNC
2.68 MD 2.18 UVA
1.95 WAKE 1.68 DUKE

I have both Miami with the tie-breaker over Virginia Tech and thus why they are projected as the Coastal champion despite being .1 behind.  

Inside, find this week's blogpoll and give me your thoughts on what I should change!  Plus, other great daily links.

This is not a power poll. I don't attempt to rank teams based on how good I think they are. I only rank teams based on their resume. What have they done? Not how talented are their players or what other polls project them to do, but what have they done? The poll is designed to be dynamic. I try to start from scratch every week.

I do attempt to reward teams for "quality losses," while punishing them for poor performances. I do not give excessive credit for stomping horrible teams. I reward quality play, win or lose, particularly against other good teams. I am not bumping team A 10 spots and docking team B 10 spots when team A beats team B by a field goal in what was essentially an equally played game.  I like to reward playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punish losing to poor teams more harshly than I reward defeating poor teams. To that end, TCU and Boise will probably not climb much higher in my poll for the rest of the year because they don't really play anyone.  And if those two don't blow out the weak competition every week they will start to slip in addition to not climbing.  

I Reward Grinders. I reward those who play difficult schedules. Teams that play a tough team every week don't get to spend extra time preparing for their tough games, and they also don't face the attrition other teams face because they are able to pull their starters in blowouts. Fewer plays for important players reduces the chance those players will get injured.

SB Nation BlogPoll Top 25 College Football Rankings

TomahawkNation Ballot - Week 5

Rank Team Delta/ Quick Comment
1 Alabama Crimson Tide -- Dominating with a nice road win
2 Oregon Ducks --Dominant 
3 Ohio St. Buckeyes --Dominant
4 LSU Tigers Arrow_up 1 Four nice wins over major-conference bowl teams
5 Stanford Cardinal Arrow_up 1 35-0 over UCLA means more now
6 Auburn Tigers Arrow_up 4 Two wins over teams I consider to be top 20 quality
7 Oklahoma Sooners Arrow_up 1 Dominated FSU, dominated first-3 quarters against 3 other bowl teams
8 Arizona Wildcats Arrow_up 3 Good win over Iowa and close over Cal
9 Florida Gators Arrow_down -2 Didn't drop because of play but because others picked up better wins
10 TCU Horned Frogs Arrow_up 3 Schedule is awful but they do what they are supposed to do
11 Nebraska Cornhuskers Arrow_up 3 Didn't give proper credence for Washington romp last week
12 South Carolina Gamecocks -- UGA win means a bit less, but I don't penalize teams much for losing close on the road to other very good teams
13 Utah Utes Arrow_up 2  Pitt win means less
14 Michigan Wolverines Arrow_down -5 ND & UConn wins discounted now
15 Boise St. Broncos Arrow_up 1 VTech win slightly better, Oregon State win not impressive
16 Arkansas Razorbacks Arrow_up 2  Played very well despite the loss.  
17 N.C. State Wolfpack --  Three quality wins, two on the road.  
18 Air Force Falcons Arrow_up 1  Blew out BYU, Played close at OU, good win at Wyoming
19 Clemson Tigers Arrow_up 1 High quality play at Auburn.  Crushed North Texas w/ more than 10 yards/play.
20 Miami Hurricanes -- OSU loss looks better, dominant at Pitt
21 Nevada Wolf Pack --  Crushed Cal and BYU
22 Mississippi St. Bulldogs -- Crushed Memphis, beat UGA, and two high-quality losses (@ LSU, Auburn)
23 Iowa Hawkeyes Arrow_down -6 Arizona's close win over Cal makes the loss to the Cats look worse
24 USC Trojans -- Beaten everybody convincingly except one
25 Missouri Tigers --  Ditto
Dropouts: Texas Longhorns, Georgia Bulldogs, Oklahoma St. Cowboys, Michigan St. Spartans, Fresno St. Bulldogs

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings "

So... you have 20 hours to change my mind using my criteria Go.

Notes

Bronco on MWC teleconference: "I don't think the void [left by Fuga's injury] is fillable."  BYU has lost its nose guard and is in serious trouble.

Seminoles Shut Out Deacons 31-0 in Tallahassee - Blogger So Dear
FSU-Wake Forest Recap and Analysis

Pitt loses starting linebacker for rest of 2010 | CollegeFootballTalk.com
Pitt is in trouble, which will make Miami's win over the Panthers seem less impressive.

Ticket Sales Hinge On Miami Game : ScalpEm.com

Seminole Recruiting Update 9/27 ""------;;--" The Spear
Marching Chiefs Jacob Coker- 9-for-16 178 yards and 1 Passing TD, 3 Rushing TD’s in 42-40 Win. Devonta Freeman- 3 Carries 70 yards and 2TD’s (only played 1st half) in 70-0 Win. James Wilder Jr.- 40 yards TD run, 41 yard receiving TD (only played 1st half) in 56-6 Win. Tyler Hunter- 2 Int’s in 3-0 Win. Karlos Williams- 5 carries 18 yards, 1 rec 14 yards, and 16 tackles in 45-20 Loss. Rashad Greene- DNP, nursing a hamstring injury, should be able to play next week.

Georgia Tech vs. NC State: Monday Quick Thoughts - From The Rumble Seat
Tech guys are realizing Tech doesn't have the players on defense.

  Second Thoughts After Week Four Jim Young  Good takes on the ACC with Jim Young

 

Eagle in Atlanta -- atleagle.com: Second viewing thoughts and grade report: Virginia Tech
Excellent Eval

 

 

Miami/UNC: The 4-3 OVER/Slide front - Shakin The Southland
Miami/UNC: The 4-3 OVER/Slide front READ THIS TODAY.  NOW.

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