Cheesy i know, but it actually looks like there is a good shot of storms for the game on Saturday afternoon. First lets talk about that tropical storm down in the western Gulf of Mexico. Hermine is the name given to the storm that is forecast to remain a tropical storm and impact southern TX over the next few days with large amounts of rain fall and 35-50mph winds. This storm is tracked to move through central TX and into northwest OK by Thursday, as seen here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl?large#contentsThese models are updated 3 times a day. Many times tracks of storms differ slightly from update to update. Like I said last week, tropical systems are the red headed step children of weather due to the different parameters they operate under vs an everyday thunderstorm or any other type of convective weather. I will be sure to keep everyone updated on the ever changing tropical system throughout the week. This storm shouldn't be an impact to the game, but maybe Bud can let us know if the OU team has an indoor training facility, cause if they don't it could hinder their ability to prat ice.
The steering force for Hermine will be a cold front that will originate in Colorado. This front should form sometime Wednesday evening Thursday morning and push Hermine northeast. This will be a rather slow moving cold front and have little impact on temps. Highs for the game will again be in the mid 90's and winds will be in a northwesterly fashion which is common after frontal passage. Depending on the speed of the cold front, conditions could be conductive for afternoon convective weather. This time of year there is always ample moisture being pumped in from the Gulf of Mexico and with a cold front in the region it could provide the lift necessary for the development of thunderstorms. As we get closer to game time i will be able to give a more accurate forecast on the possibility of the chance for thunderstorms.
This weeks weather could possibly have a negative impact on the struggling OU team. They looked flat out of the gate. OU will need every minute to hammer out the kinks and prepare for an FSU team that came out guns a' blazin! The weather in Tallahassee this week will be much of the norm. Hot, humid and the possibility of afternoon storms. The greatest chance for rain will be today. The rest of the week will be hot with near 0% chances of rain, perfect weather to polish up for the game. Look back throughout the week for updates. GO NOLES!!
Sunday evening: Updated NHC forecast for Hermine http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Also here is a local forecast discussion put out by the weather center in Norman, OK about the time line and impacts of the tropical cyclone.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REGION FROM TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY... AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTH. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN... BUT
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THE
SHOWERS OR STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE. FORECASTER CJS"
And here is another part of the discussion that talks about the amount of rain that is possible,
"WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS... INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FORECASTER CJS"
I will be following this throughout the week, so check back for updates.
Monday morning update: A flash flood watch has been issued for Norman and much of the surrounding area as Tropical Storm Hermine approaches. The NHC forecast for Hermine has changed multiple times over the last 24hrs. These changes have been made as the storm is weakening a bit slower than expected. As the storm weakens it will begin to track to the north northeast rather quickly.
Forecast for the game still remains good. Chance of showers before halftime and hot. Should be lots of sunshine!
Wednesday: Tropical Storm Hermine has began to weaken considerably. The NHC has reduced the system to tropical depression. Rain fall is expected throughout today and much of tomorrow. Rainfall estimates range from 6in-10in for the area. Some parts of Texas have received up to 13.2in over the last 2 days! Those of us from Florida know that is a lot of rain to get at once. I want to emphasize i do not believe this system will have an impact at game time. My forecast of lots of sunshine and a minimal chance of thundershowers are what i expect. As for Tallahassee, its going to be hot again! Surprise! Chance of showers as always for Florida. I promise that Fall is coming quick though. We've already been in the low 50's up here in IL a few times over the last week. For those of you that are old country boys, the acorns are already falling to the ground up here....Looks like its gonna be a cold winter! Check back tomorrow for any updates.
Friday afternoon: Forecast remains unchanged. Small chance of thunder and rain and temps around 90. If there are any specific questions regarding the weather in the local area ask in the comment section. Other than that, expect updates only as any potential weather impacts to the game unfold. F-L-O-R-I-D-A S-T-A-T-E WOOOOOOO!!!
GAME DAY! Not much to talk about in the way of weather. Thunder boomers all along a front last night but all the weather has moved out of the region and i expect NO WX IMPACTS during the game. Going to be cloudy at the start of the game but look for more sun to break out as the game continues. Got my game day shirt on and cant wait to see this game!! GO NOLES!