FanPost

Sports Betting Thread/Redemption Week/FSU Confidence Poll

 

Let me start by saying Tomahawk Nation is in no way associated with any gambling website, nor does TN condone gambling of any sort. This is simply a discussion of odds and anything written in this thread in no way reflects the views of Tomahawk Nation.

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Good grief. What an awful weekend. Now that FSU has been downtrodden completely by the entire nation, lets recap the devastation left in it's wake. Yes, that was a painful, corny, disturbingly truthful attempt at a joke.

RECAP

So, how did your picks fair last week? Let's look at the ones I picked.

Oklahoma simply to win (currently -10) vs. Texas...WIN

OU shows that they are legitimately elite team (again), while Texas is shown as the untested fraud I expected.

GT @ -13.5 vs. Maryland...LOSS

Winning 21-3 in the 4th quarter, GT gives up 13 unanswered to win 21-16.  

FSU @ -13, and then more at -10 at Wake Forest...LOSS 

We played this weekend?

Texas A&M @ -6 (currently -9.5) at Texas Tech...LOSS

A&M gives up a 20 yard TD pass with :30 seconds left in the game, allowing Tech to cover. A&M wins 45-40

Michigan @ -3.5 (currently -7.5) at Northwestern...WIN   

Michigan lays it on NW in the 2nd half, win 42-24

Safe to say, aside from FSU, I felt really good going into the 4th quarter of all my games. Unfortunately, Georgia Tech decided they couldn't handle a backup quarterback, and the Texas A&M defense had no self-respect, giving up the final 10 points of the game, pushing me to a 2-3 record on the week. To top it all off, FSU put in a pitiful performance against an inferior opponent. Overall, I lost money on the week, as I'm sure a lot of FSU fans did as well.

THIS WEEK

But that was last week. What games stand out to you this week? Does it seem like Vegas is undervaluing or overvaluing any team that you might can take advantage of?

 

When the CFB podcast comes out, I'll update and provide a like here.

 

But until then, let me show you what games I took this week (either in a teaser or straight up). I'll also throw in an explanation:

3:00pm  Florida State -11 -110* vs Duke 

FSU comes in on a 3-game skid, with the season in question and without a true identity. This Duke game could no come at a better time for either the players or the coaching staff. Jimbo will not try and "fix" the run game now. He will not be trying to make this team what he wanted it to be at the beginning of the season. He is going to find out what works and he is going to allow the players to find their own identity. I see a lot of shotgun, a lot of WR's, and a lot of spread-running in this game as a tune-up to what we will be the rest of the year, and potentially 2012.

Jimbo steps on the gas in this game and leaves no doubt, instilling some much-needed confidence into Nole Nation.

12:30pm  North Carolina -3½ -110* vs Miami Florida

I just think UNC is better. Better offense, better defense, better personnel. Better.

If you want stats, both have excellent offenses (UNC - 14th, UM - 15th) when adjusted for opponents, but UNC sports a top 50 defense while Miami is 88th! And they are worse than 90th in every S&P defensive category! We're talking worse than San Jose State, Rice, and Arkansas State.

12:20pm South Carolina -4½ * vs Mississippi State 

Since South Carolina can't dismiss their OC midseason, they decided just to dismiss the second drunkest person in the program. And from the performance put in last week by their backup Shaw, they seem to be even better with him.

This line has since moved to -2, noting Garcia's dismissal. I still feel comfortable with this pick, though obviously I see -2 at a much better value.

12:00pm  Michigan +3 * vs Michigan State

This is going to be a very interesting game. Michigan has a top 5 offense going against Michigan State's top 15 defense. On the other side is a slightly above average MSU O (38th) against above average Michigan D (43rd).

Honestly, I believe Michigan State's defense is a little overrated, giving up 31 points to the only decent offense they've played all year (Notre Dame). I think Michigan pulls the upset on the road and remains undefeated.

This line has since moved to Michigan +1.

3:30pm  LSU -13½ -130* vs Tennessee U 

Tennessee has lost it's starting QB and one of the best playmakers in the country (WR Justin Hunter). When Hunter went down their offense plummeted. Now that their QB, Tyler Bray, is out for this game, Tennesse will struggle to move the ball past midfield again this elite LSU defense (#3 nationally).

This line has since moved to -15.5

3:30pm  Georgia Tech -8 -110* vs Virginia 

Georgia Tech enters this game with a top10 offense and a top 20 defense. Virginia is simply not going to hang. Granted, the defense is senior laden (7 Sr. starters), but they are just not very good. Unfortunately, The Cavalier offensive isn't any better, barely eeking out an overtime win against Idaho in their last game.

The good news for the cav's is that they have had 2 weeks to prepare for this lethal offense. Since one week to prepare during the regular season is historically insufficient for a decent GT offense, UVA should play better. But I don't think they will be able to cover, and GT will dominate on both sides of the ball. Hopefully, they will not be looking forward to Miami next week.

7:00pm  Auburn pk * vs Florida 

This pick is based solely on the fact that Florida is a complete mess. Brantley will not play this week, and Driskel may not either. The Auburn defense is no stalwart, but I think luck may come to play in this game @ the Barn, and Luck might as well be Chizik's middle name.

TEASE ME AND PLEASE ME...

I also played a pleaser. For beginners who don't know what a pleaser is, it is a bet that allows you to basically give up points on games. This is especially handy when you think a team will win by more than the line, or lose by less than the current line. This gives you worse odds than what Vegas is advertising, but higher payouts. Think of it as the exact opposite of a teaser. Here I have a pleaser taking 6 points (meaning the actual line is 6 points in the opposite direction).  This 6 point pleaser, for instance, is 3 teams, and would pay +1750. a $10 bet here would win $175 if it hits.

12:20pm  South Carolina -11½ * vs Mississippi State 

12:00pm  Michigan -4 * vs Michigan State 

7:00pm  Auburn -7 * vs Florida 

I enjoy pleasers (and teasers)...TWSS... because it allows for a little more creativity in your gambling and can give big payouts depending on the number of games in the bet. Because of the nature of the bet and the number of upsets that can happen each week, I rarely bet very big with either.

You can go HERE to check the currently lines on BODOG. Be sure your workplace will allow this as we don't want anyone getting into trouble.

What games do you see that interest you? What tactics/strategies do you like to use in your approach to games? What questions do you have? I definitely do not portray myself on an expert in this field, but hopefully we can all learn form each other in these discussions.

Finally, I'll end with a poll, because everyone likes voting and speaking their mind.

 

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