FanPost

The Two Year Natty Trend

Like most FSU fans I drank the FSU Kool-aide coming into this year. Despite being very dissapointed in the team so far I think one thing we can all agree on is that we were not ready to be National Title Contenders.

I have to admit I bit hard into the hype and let myself get waaaaaay ahead of where this team realistically is. And what I mean by that is buying into the thought that Jimbo would fall right in line with the other coaches and teams before him who have recently won a Natty the second year of that teams rebuilding process.

That current trend includes Bob Stoops at Oklahoma; Jim Tressel at Ohio State; Urban Meyer at Florida; Gene Chizik at Auburn and for good measure we will throw in Chip Kelly at Oregon for appearing in a Natty game his second year as a Head Coach at Oregon.

I really believed that Jimbo could be added to this list but those hopes and dreams came crashing down during OK and Clem.

Once the dust settled I started to look into why i drank the kool aide so hard on this trend.  I am not going to get into a very detailed look into why but from a birds eye view I am summarizing this up to coaching experience as a Head Coach. I say this because he has made some glaring mistakes as a Head Coach so far (debateble-but all those coaches on the above list obviously didnt make as many mistakes because they won the Natty they're second year.)

The reason why I chose this angle is because even though Jimbo is in his second year at FSU being the Head Coach....it is only his second year as a HEAD COACH ANYWHERE. What is misleading in this current trend of 2nd year of a coach at a new school wins a Natty is, that many fail to realize how much Head Coaching Experience each coach on that list had BEFORE they won the Natty at they're respective schools. Take a look at the stats below. I included the year each coach won the Title as a year of experience because the regular season had been completed. (Note: just looked at BCS era)

Bob Stoops- 2 years-OKlahoma 2000

Jim Tressel- 17 years-Ohio State 2002

Urban Meyer- 6 years-Florida 2006

Gene Chizik- 4 years- Auburn 2010

Chip Kelly- 2 years* (appeared in natty second year)- Oregon 2010

Average= 6.2 years of actual head coaching experience before they won their first national championship.

 

Now if we take this analysis a little bit further to include coaches winning a Natty in they're third year, Nick Saban at Alabama and Les Miles at LSU the results are interesting.

 Nick Saban at Alabama 2009- 14 years (includes already winning a share of  the natty at LSU in his fourth year at LSU)

Les Miles- 7 years- LSU 2007

 

Average= 7.42 years of head coaching experience before each coach won a Title during their second/third year.

I say this because as Jimbo grows as a Head Coach, we at FSU are experiencing some turbulence along the way. He will make mistakes like a sophmore QB will starting for a FSU would. We need to realize this and take this into account to offer perspective when we think about Jimbo's future here at FSU. Because I for one think Jimbo is a Five Star coach that just needs a little seasoning and a little luck to take this team to the promised land... 

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