Let me start by saying Tomahawk Nation is in no way associated with any gambling website, nor does TN condone gambling of any sort. This is simply a discussion of odds and anything written in this thread in no way reflects the views of Tomahawk Nation.
What a great weekend for FSU. We dominate Duke. We are predicted to dominate Maryland. More importantly, we make Heather Dinich look bad (but let's be honest, she not exactly a looker already). Oh, and Florida still looks terrible. The only thing that could make it better would be for Miami to have gotten beat and for Clemson to have pulled a Clemson. But alas, we cannot always have it our way. I guess I'll take what we got.
Here's the On the Line Gambling Podcast. Check it out, boatloads of insight into some of this week's games.
So, how did your picks fair last week? Let's look at the ones I picked.
Florida State -11 -110* vs Duke...WIN
They are who we thought they were...er...well, hoped they were. FSU takes control early and Jimbo steps on the gas. Beatdown number one.
North Carolina -3½ -110* vs Miami Florida...LOSS
Wow, has Miami turned the corner this season? I don't really think so, but they got up quickly on North Carolina who had to abandon their excellent running game. This game was closer than the score indicated, but who cares about moral victories when there's...ahem...theoretical money on the line/
South Carolina -4½ * vs Mississippi State...LOSS
Just follow this LINK. Vegas is now a huge Spurrier fan.
Michigan +3 * vs Michigan State...LOSS
LSU -13½ -130* vs Tennessee U...WIN
LSU just lays into a decimated Tennessee team, however Tennessee does make it past midfield a few times, but can only punch it in once as they get dumped 38-7.
Auburn pk * vs Florida...WIN
This seemed like a fairly easy pick, but I was a little skeptical of Auburn's offense against a very good UF defense. Luckily, I somehow overestimated UF's offense and did not win as much as I probably should have. Wow, UF is awful right now.
Georgia Tech -8 -110* vs Virginia...LOSE
Yuck. This game cost me twice my bankroll in potential winnings. In fact, I hit on a 15-team teaser that would have earned a pretty penny had Tech simply won the game.
Overall, I did still net a decent positive on the day thanks to winning my highest confidence picks (FSU and LSU) both individually and in a simple parlay, but boy was I seeing $$$ until Paul Johnson dashed my dreams away. From last weeks losses I am a little above even despite a 5-7 record, and had FSU won last week or GT this week I would be sitting pretty. But enough about what could have been...
This week does not have a bunch jump out to me screaming VALUE. But perhaps I am looking at things the wrong way. What games stand out to you this week? Does it seem like Vegas is undervaluing or overvaluing any team that you might can take advantage of?
Let me show you what games I took this week (either in a teaser, pleaser, parlay, or straight up). I'll also throw in an explanation:
For starters, I am NOT taking FSU -17 against Maryland. That is a very high number and has been discussed already HERE. Is this going to be beatdown #2? I hope so, but I'm not gonna put my money where my mouth is.
12:00pm Wake Forest -3 +100* vs Duke
This game is interesting. I could be using the infamous transitive properties in an emotional fit and just assume Wake is going to win. However, Wake seems to be the better team after this past week. Specifically, Wake has a talented secondary that should give fits to Duke's WR personnel. Since Duke heavily relies on the passing game, I see this as a great matchup. Duke also did lose their starting center against FSU, and when I say starting I mean backup. We'll see if the 3rd string center can handle the heat.
12:00pm Illinois -5½ -110* vs Purdue
You knew it had to happen at some point. Ron Zook can't coach that good. The Illinois dream run is over, but they are still 6-1 after facing a top-15 Ohio State defense. The good news? Purdue is nowhere near a top-15 defense. Or offense. In fact, Purdue has yet to garner more than two touchdowns this season against any defense ranked in the top 110 in the country. Where is Illinois you ask? 13th. Yeah, I'll just stop there.
12:00pm Virginia -4 -110* vs NC State
Virginia comes in sporting a top-25 defense, while NC State enters off a bye week with a bottom 40 offense. NC State defense is also in the bottom 30, while Virginia's offense is purely average. Advantage: Virginia.
But what's the big selling point? Glad you asked! NC State has a huge number of defensive line injuries and generally roadkill-resembling play. Well, perhaps that is a little harsh since they are starting a walk-on offensive lineman at defensive tackle, but I digress. You will also note that Virginia's rushing attack destroyed my dreams last week (see above) to the tune of 272 yards against an above average Georgia Tech defense. What happens when they meet up with the 95th rated wolfpup rushing defense? Money in fresh's pocket, that's what.
12:00pm Oklahoma State -7½ -105* vs Missouri
I'm actually surprised this is as low as it is. I assumed the Cowboys would be about a 13 point favorite, but low-and-behold, this seems like taking the theoretical candy from the proverbial baby. Oklahoma State has some serious firepower on offense and defense (both top 15). Missouri has the offense to keep up, but they will be tested on each possession while OSU runs up and down the field against a bottom 50 Missouri defense. This should be a fun game with Oklahoma State just out-running Missouri.
TEASE ME AND PLEASE ME...
I also played a teaser. For beginners who don't know what a teaser is, it is a bet that allows you to basically get extra points on games. This is especially handy when you think a team won't win by the given line, but will be able to cover a more advantageous number. This gives you better odds than what Vegas is advertising, but lower payouts.Think of it as the exact opposite of a pleaser. Here I have a teaser giving 5 points (meaning the actual line is 5 points in the opposite direction). This 5 point teaser, for instance, is 5 teams, and would pay +510. a $10 bet here would win $51 if it hits.
Virginia -1 * vs NC State
Illinois -1½ * vs Purdue
Florida State -12 * vs Maryland
Oklahoma State -2½ * vs Missouri
Kansas State -7 * vs Kansas
I enjoy teasers (and pleasers)...TWSS... because it allows for a little more creativity in your gambling and can give big payouts depending on the number of games in the bet (e.g. my near-hit 15 team teaser example, oh what could have been). Because of the nature of the bet and the number of upsets that can happen each week (cough), I rarely bet very big with either (thank God).
You can go HERE to check the currently lines on BODOG. Be sure your workplace will allow this as we don't want anyone getting into trouble.
What games do you see that interest you? What tactics/strategies do you like to use in your approach to games? What questions do you have? I definitely do not portray myself on an expert in this field, but hopefully we can all learn form each other in these discussions.