Florida State's Defense On Third-&-Long

A lot of Seminole fans have been freaking out about the defense on third/fourth & long downs. Let's clear some things up:

1. FSU's defense on third/fourth & long was not an issue against Duke before garbage time.

2. This has been an issue in other games. 

Let's first look at how defended third and fourth & long against Duke. This is defined as "5 or more yards to go." 

When the outcome of the game was still remotely in doubt, FSU's defense dominated, stopping Duke on 5 of 6 attempts.

You can see the breakdown of these six plays, at left. These are pulled from the Florida State Film Review.

Below, you'll see that once FSU got up 34-3, they let up a bit on the focus and Duke made some very nice plays. That combination allowed Duke to convert a few. 

But should you care that Duke converted some in the fourth quarter, down 34-3? I wouldn't.

Yet FSU's issues aren't necessarily solved. Inside, I examine the garbage-time downs against Duke, what happened in the other games, and what will change going forward.

But this was an issue against Clemson and Wake Forest. FSU's defense has been 8th on standard downs, but just 38th on passing downs.

Why? I have my theories on this.

First, there is a perception problem. FSU's defense is so vastly improved that it is forcing more long down situations. In previous years, the defense would face third and short, or simply give up a first down on first or second down.

Second, even though the defense is forcing more of these situations, we are still dealing with a rather limited sample set of perhaps 50 plays, if that. Even fewer in non-garbage time. In such a limited sample set, things can be skewed by a great offensive play or two, random bad luck, or a horrible call.

Third, is just that, penalties. FSU has been the victim of some atrociously bad calls on third down and long situations this year. You'd like to think it will even out, but even if it doesn't, that's not something FSU can control. 

Fourth, overconfidence in the linebackers. FSU's linebackers played a great game against Oklahoma. Much better than anyone expected. You have to wonder if Mark Stoops wasn't overconfident in the surprising coverage skills of his linebackers. Not that this was unjustified, because Stoops had every reason to be confident. To him, it made more sense to stay in the base defense that had worked so well against Oklahoma, rather than trying to run some new nickel package without Greg Reid.

Unfortunately, it didn't work. They were exposed against Clemson and to some extent, Wake Forest. But they also had to play a bit, because FSU was without at least one of its top three cornerbacks for a decent part of those games, making nickel and dime formations difficult to play. 

Fifth, the injuries mentioned above. None of FSU's corners have been healthy for the first six games. The injuries haven't been major, but they have definitely impacted FSU's defense. 

How often did FSU play nickel/dime defense (5 or 6 defensive backs) on 3rd/4th-&-long:

9% of the time against Clemson (no Greg Reid b/c of leg injury)
3 7 Three-Four
3 9 Four-Three
3 5 Three-Four
3 29 Four-Three
3 5 Four-Three
3 10 Three-Four
3 5 Three-Four
3 10 Three-Three
3 14 Four-Three
3 10 Four-Three
3 6 Four-Three

33% of the time against Wake (no Mike Harris for much of the game due to injury)
3 13 Three-Four
3 5 Three-Three
3 5 Three-Four
3 12 Four-Three
3 5 Four-Two
3 19 Four-Three
3 25 Four-Three
3 10 Three-Four
3 11 Four-Three
3 8 Three-Four
3 8 Four-Two
3 6 Four-Two

100% of the time against Duke
3 10 Three-Three
3 9 Four-Two
3 6 Four-Two
3 12 Four-Two
3 17 Four-Two
3 19 Four-Two

Source: The best play-by-play stat sheet on the net.

Duke was the first game since Oklahoma that FSU had all three corners stay on the field for most of the game. 

With the corners apparently healthy, and the emergence of extra defensive back Terrence Brooks (the one positive to come from the injuries to the corners has been then Stoops can now trust Brooks more), expect to see more nickel/dime on passing downs from this defense, and far fewer instances in which Nigel Bradham and Vince Williams are on the field together.

Here's DRN's thoughts:

Even though Rhodes got banged up again, he just looks healthier and more like himself. Saw signs of his old burst/closing speed against Wake and again last week. If Harris isn’t completely healthy…God help opponents when he is. Very pleased with Brooks’ play overall. Thought he looked good in spot play previous two weeks and played a lot against Duke, looks like a freshman at times…but lots of upside.

With an elite defensive front, FSU doesn't need to blitz all that much. Playing coverage with players suited to cover behind a great pass-rushing front will take this defense from very good to elite.