Let me start by saying Tomahawk Nation is in no way associated with any gambling website, nor does TN condone gambling of any sort. This is simply a discussion of odds and anything written in this thread in no way reflects the views of Tomahawk Nation.
What a crazy weekend in college football. Oklahoma goes down, Wisconsin goes down, LSU demoralizes teams even without their starters, and FSU has a WINNING STREAK again! If you haven't checked out the meltdown thread from last week, go HERE, because it was awesome. Here's my favorite from an Oklahoma fan after receiving their beatdown from Texas Tech:
We sucked a fourteen inch turd through a McDonald's straw tonight
Anyways, it finally feels good to be cheering for a team with a winning record again, and NOT be on the Meltdown Thread.
Moving on, here's where the weekly OTL Gambling Podcast will go. I will update it accordingly.
So, how did your picks fair last week? Let's look at the ones I picked.
12:00pm Wake Forest -3 +100* vs Duke...LOSS
Wow this game was a heartbreaker (as much a one could be with these two teams involved). Wake blows a 17 point lead, giving up 23 straight points to Duke, only to get a TD late to win. That game was in hand for just about everyone, and Wake let off the gas and it almost cost them (but still cost me). Wake wins 24-23.
12:00pm Illinois -5½ -110* vs Purdue...LOSS
Needless to say this game did not go as planned. But Purdue did not win this game, no no, Illinois handed Purdue this game on a silver platter. Coaching lost this game for Illinois. Down 21-0, Ron Zook elected to punt on 4th and <3yds at midfield or inside Purdue territory THREE TIMES. WHILE BEING DOWN 21-0. There are many more reasons why Illinois lost this game (hence, not Purdue winning), but it is water under the bridge now. Purdue wins 21-14.
12:00pm Virginia -4 -110* vs NC State...LOSS
This was another awful game to watch. Virginia gained 249 yards. The entire game. That's it. No, seriously. Virginia QB's combined to complete 31% of their passes (35 passes) and had 3 INT's. Virginia showed this week they were a one hit wonder, and NC State showed that even the worst teams can win when the opposing team gives up short fields and pick-6's. NC State wins 28-14.
12:00pm Oklahoma State -7½ -105* vs Missouri...WIN
This was my confidence pick, and I'm glad it hit because it immediately put me ahead on the day despite my other losses. Oklahoma State showed again that they have a prolific offense and respectable defense. Their QB (Weeden) will get some Heisman coverage before the year is out. OSU wins 45-24.
I also won some last minute bets of Kansas St -11 and FSU both to cover (19.5) and to score over 36.5
Honestly I don't know why I didn't hit Kansas State before. I woke up Friday morning and seriously thought about them for the first time all week. After some research and analysis it just seemed like the obvious choice. I admit, the FSU bet was probably not well thought out as I was just realizing that my first 3 bets were going down the drain. I figured if FSU did indeed cover then they were going to hit the over, so I made them and they hit.
Overall, I upped my bankroll a bit thanks to winning my highest confidence pick (OSU) and some last minute epiphanies. But, I'm still on the losing end record-wise as I went officially 1-3, though unofficially I went 4-3 ;-)
This week has a few games of interest. I need an infusion of good picks to redeem my awful record so far. Here's who I have this week.
12:00pm Florida State -18 -110* vs NC State
This game could play out very similar to last week. NC State is a mess on defense despite what happened last week, and our defense is finally healthy enough in the secondary to give QB's fits. While the wolfpack can't run at all, make no mistake, Mike Glennon has the potential to be good and he has a playmaker WR (T.J. Graham) to throw to, but with FSU at home I think they hem up the run easily and play pass all day. I think the score could be very similar to the Maryland game.
12:00pm Michigan State +4½ -110* vs Nebraska
Transitive property anyone? Wisconsin beat Nebraska 48-17. Michigan St. beat Wisconsin 37-31. Therefore, Michigan State should win by 40 right? Well, while that doesn't really add up, I think Michigan has shown they have the defense and offense to take on a Nebraska team that has played well since the Wisky demolition. This game will be rocking in Lincoln, but I think Michigan St. not only covers but also wins.
8:30pm Wisconsin -7½ -110* vs Ohio State
This may have been one of the easiest picks of the week. Wisconsin is coming off a heartbreaker, and Ohio State just isn't very good (see Bauserman, Joe). I see Wisconsin taking out a lot of frustration out on the Buckeyes, winning easily.
10:30pm Arizona U +7 -110* vs Washington U
This game could turn out to be genius, or I may just be an idiot. 2-5 Arizona vs. 5-2 Washington. Arizona has played one of the toughest SOS to date, and has been pretty respectable against some of the better teams in the country. They were jumped on by Oklahoma St. and Oregon, but played very well in losses to Stanford, USC, and Oregon State. This Arizona team is much better than their record, and I believe we saw that last week when they murdered UCLA and will see it again this week against a Washington team that has beaten California, Hawaii, and Eastern Washington by a TD or less.
TEASE ME AND PLEASE ME...
I also played a pleaser. For beginners who don't know what a pleaser is, it is a bet that allows you to basically get extra points on games. This is especially handy when you think a team will not only win by the given line, but will also be able to cover a more advantageous number. This gives you worse odds than what Vegas is advertising, but higher payouts.Think of it as the exact opposite of a teaser. Here I have a pleaser giving 10 points (meaning the actual line is 10 points in the opposite direction). This 10 point pleaser, for instance, is 2 teams, and would pay +1200. a $50 bet here would win $600 if it hits. In this specific bet, a tie equates to a win.
Georgia Tech -7 * vs Clemson
Michigan State -6½ * vs Nebraska
I may take some flak for the GT pick, but being @ Georgia Tech may allow the Jackets to take an early lead and run away with it. Also, Clemson doesn't have a former GT coach on their sideline to show exactly how to defend it, and Clemson also has not had 14 days to prepare as Virginia did.
I enjoy teasers (and pleasers)...TWSS... because it allows for a little more creativity in your gambling and can give big payouts depending on the number of games in the bet (e.g. my near-hit 15 team teaser example, oh what could have been). Because of the nature of the bet and the number of upsets that can happen each week (cough), I rarely bet very big with either (thank God).
You can go HERE to check the currently lines on BODOG. Be sure your workplace will allow this as we don't want anyone getting into trouble.
What games do you see that interest you? What tactics/strategies do you like to use in your approach to games? What questions do you have? I definitely do not portray myself on an expert in this field, but hopefully we can all learn form each other in these discussions.