FanPost

A Look at Per Game Offensive and Defensive YPP Since 2000

I thought it would be interesting to see how FSU has performed on a Yards per Play basis per game on both offense and defense since 2000.  Given that the 2000 team was the last of the dynasty teams and the coaching change at the end of the decade, it bodes seeing what changes occurred.  You'll see that the defense is nearly back to dynasty form and that the offense is back to the 2009 level of play but not yet as prolific as the 2000 offense.

I am going to continue to use the Shewhart Charts to do this since you get a good sense of the game to game variability in the numbers.   The green lines are the average YPP for the year and the red lines denote the 3 sigma control limits (These will be the YPP ranges that I quote).  Data outside the red lines indicate a better or worse than expected performance accounting for game to game variation.

Stat Geek Note: The charts are U charts and are based on a Poisson distribution since we are dealing with count data.

Offensive YPP Since 2000:

In Fig. 1 below, you can see that the normal OYPP range for the 2000 team was from 6.2-8.0 YPP and there were three games where the offense had greater than 8.0 YPP.  As a basis of comparison, Oklahoma in 2011 can be expected to have between 5.8 and 7.7 YPP on a normal day.  The difference in production for the 2001 FSU offense compared to the 2000 offense is striking.  The 2001 offense could expect to produce between 5.2-7.1 YPP.  What this says is that a great day for the '01 offense was an average day at the office for the 2000 squad (avg. YPP =7.1).  The '02 and '03 squads were roughly equivalent in performance, but the offense takes another step back in 2004 with a normal YPP range of 4.9-5.3.  FSU's offense also had their lowest productivity game in 2004 vs. NCSt with a paltry 1.78 YPP.  The '05 and '06 offenses were better than '04 but not by much.  The other thing to notice was that the variability game to game from '04-'06 was noticeably larger than before or after.  Once Jimbo Fisher took over in 2007 things began to improve.  While the '07 team could be expected to produce between 4.4-6.2 YPP, similar to the '06 team, they were much more consistent game to game.  There was an improvement in 2008, but 2009 was where the offense was finally getting back to an elite level.  The '10 offense was not quite as productive, but still good and this years offense is performing at the 2009 level in terms of YPP.

U_252520chart_252520of_252520oypp_2525202000_2525202011_medium

Fig. 1  OYPP Since 2000.  Source: ncaa.org

Defensive YPP Since 2000:

Looking at the defensive performance since 2000 we can see that the 2000 D was averaging 4.0 YPP and could expect to limit opponents to 3.2-4.8 YPP on a given game day.  Our current defense is playing at this level.  There was also a step change in performance with the 2001 D.  The '01 D could expect to limit opponents to between 4.3 and 5.8 YPP that year.  The defense in '02 was even worse than the '01 D.  The 2003-2004 defenses were much better than to 2002 D with the 2004 D having a YPP range from 3.4-4.9 and averaging 4.1 YPP.  The 2005 D was the 2nd worst defense of the decade with a normal YPP range of 4.8-6.5 YPP.  This D had 4 games above 6 YPP.  The 2006 defense was much improved over the '05 version ranging from 3.6-5.2 YPP.  The defensive decline resumed in 2007 with a slight respite in '08.  2009 brought the total collapse of the defense with the normal YPP range increasing to 5.8-7.8 YPP.  The arrival of Mark Stoops enabled the D in 2010 to get back to the 2007-2008 level and this years D is the best we have had since 2004 on a YPP basis.  It is not quite at the dynasty level yet, but very close.  The 2012 D should be back at the dynasty level.

U_252520chart_252520of_252520dypp_2525202000_2525202011_medium

Fig. 2 DYPP Since 2000.  Source: ncaa.org

The charts overall show what we have all seen over the last decade. A definite decline from dynasty level performance and the beginning of a resurgence back to elite status.


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