Florida State Football vs The ACC: Beyond The Yellow Flags
When most football coaches are asked what their team needs to do win a game, they will usually give the normal and typical coach-speak reply: "We must avoid turnovers and we can't commit any penalties." While turnovers are momentum killers that can quickly change the direction of a game, they are usually caused by a players negligence or mistake, but just as often they are caused by a player trying too hard. However, there is nothing more frustrating to the fans, the players and coaches than penalties. Which brings us to today's topic.
Does Florida State’s past history of ACC dominance and their aggressive style of play contribute to and cause the officials to penalize FSU more often than our conference rivals, with questionable officiating?
For as long as I have been following FSU football, the perception has always been that the FSU football program was always one of the most penalized teams in college football when the final stats were released at the end of the season, without fail on a yearly basis.
The perception also seemed to be that our coaching staff didn’t really appear too concerned, as the players were simply following the coaches orders by playing aggressively and up until the echo of the whistle. And if memory serves me correctly, it also seems many of the TV announcers covering FSU games have implied and often characterized the penalties and aggressiveness of our players as the Noles lacking discipline and accountability, playing recklessly, and out of control.
Some might argue that in the past, and even still today, many of the major penalties called against FSU were/are a direct result of the aggressive style of play and the reputation that FSU garnered during the Dynasty Years, especially on defense where aggressiveness was a staple under the attack defenses of Mickey Andrews.
Over the years there has been much debate about the impact of defensive penalties. There are those who argue that large numbers of defensive penalties are indicative of a strong, physical, aggressive defense. You may see some evidence that this view might have some merit.
On the other hand, there are many others who believe that the teams that commit the most penalties will lose more often, and that penalties that occur during a game often determine who wins and who loses the game.
Today we will analyze a few statistics about penalties in college football. The biggest answer we are seeking is to see if our analysis of the stats will point us in the right direction and towards the truth. That being whether or not more penalties equals a worse record and more losses, and if this concept has any validity or is actually a myth.
Texas coach Mack Brown, who previously coached at North Carolina, once said, "Usually, the best teams are the more penalized teams if you study it in the history of college football. I've said this before, but the most penalized team in our conference at the ACC was Florida State, and they were winning all the games at the time. I always got confused about that, and it's because they were so aggressive."
While this was true, we must remember that during the Dynasty Years, the Noles were one of the country's elite teams, with elite talent, and played with extreme confidence. Those great teams often played against weaker conference teams who were usually at a talent disadvantage. Due to these factors, those FSU teams from the Dynasty Era could more often overcome penalties on defense, while those FSU offensive juggernauts of yesteryear could convert first downs consistently even after being penalized more often than their out-manned opponents. So even though those teams from the Dynasty Years often played and looked like the "Noles Gone Wild," they could usually overcome most penalties and still win, despite often making penalties that would be drive-killers and tear the hearts out of the weaker teams.
For example, in 1999 FSU was the most penalized team in the country by a large margin, tallying 109 penalties throughout the year for almost 85 yards a game. This was 27 more penalties and 15 yards a game more than second-placed Clemson. This was also the last time FSU won a national championship. Coincidence? You will be asked to decide on the validity of this theory shortly.
There is little doubt that an aggressive style of play may lead the officials to err on the side of caution and make more "subjective or judgment call" penalties (such as pass interference or offensive holding) against the more aggressive team. On several occasions in the past, officials have acknowledged that a high level of aggressive play by a team can result in a higher number of penalties, but this was always acknowledged under the condition of anonymity and off the record, of course.
A popular opinion among the tin-foil hat wearers is that officials are more lenient and call less penalties on the weaker teams and the underdogs, especially when they are facing a ranked team or a heavy favorite.
Then there are others out there who believe that the ref's usually favor the home team, and the officials are quicker to throw the hanky against the visiting team.
And finally, there are those conspiracy theorist who believe that the ACC good ol' boy network favors and penalizes the teams from the tobacco belt with less frequency than teams from outside of the state of North Carolina.
We will analyze the numbers to see if there are any stats that can lend any credence to any of these trains of thought, i.e. if the visiting team is flagged more often than the home team, if weaker teams get penalized less often than ranked or elite teams, and if there is any proof that the four teams residing near the ACC headquarters are flagged less often than the rest of the conference. However, a teams level of aggressiveness is very subjective and very difficult to gauge. Is FSU more aggressive than the rest of the ACC, or for that matter, the rest of the NCAA field? Statistically, that’s impossible to answer, but your input is welcome as to whether or not you feel aggressiveness is a factor in the number of penalties called against FSU.
IS FLORIDA STATE "PENALTY U?"
Please hit the jump to continue reading.
IS FLORIDA STATE "PENALTY U?"
First let's start out by looking at the national rankings for the most number of penalties and the most yards in the ACC (and UF) for the past three seasons.
NATIONAL RANKINGS FOR THE ACC (& UF) BY TOTAL NUMBER OF PENALTIES AND TOTAL YARDS FOR PAST 3 YEARS
2010 2009 2008
TEAM # - Yds # - Yds # - Yds
Boston Coll 53 - 63 22 - 23 20 - 19
Clemson 72- 85 35 - 49 59 - 61
Duke 6 - 9 11 - 17 9 - 26
Florida St 96 -104 88 - 99 112 - 115
Georgia Tech 85 - 74 79 - 59 29 - 44
Maryland 11- 114 24 - 18 23 - 28
Miami (FL) 116 -115 96 - 72 64 - 55
N Carolina 108 - 95 71 - 84 29 - 36
NC State 25 - 5 18 - 15 58 - 36
Virginia 106 -113 32 - 59 17 - 18
Virginia Tech 30 - 36 58 - 51 55 - 13
Wake Forest 11 - 24 41 - 47 23 - 65
Florida 109 - 91 101 -84 112 -107
Some things that may jump out at you might include:
A) FSU, Miami, and UF are among the most penalized teams in the country on a yearly basis. Since the majority of the players from these 3 schools are from Florida, is it possible these players are taught a more aggressive style of play at an earlier age than players from other parts of the country? Or is it more of a question of lack of discipline and maturity on the players and coaches part?
An interesting anecdote that may help support this theory is how the University of South Florida was also an annual fixture as one of the most penalized teams in the country this past decade, since starting to play Division I-A (FBS) football in 2001, although they did make a big improvement this past season. From 2001 to 2008, USF was the only team to be ranked in the top 10 every year in average number of penalties per game. During this same period, no other program has even been ranked annually among the top 20 most penalized teams. USF led the nation in penalties in 2002, and were the second most penalized team in 2001, 2004 and 2007.
Does this bit of trivia, in addition to the fact that FSU, Miami, and Florida are consistently ranked as the most penalized teams in the country, help support the theory that Florida players are being taught to play with more aggressiveness at a younger age (or with less discipline), or was this just growing pains for the Bulls when they started playing big boy football?
Here are the University of South Florida national ranking and average number of penalties per game, per year.
YEAR RANK AVG
2001 No. 2 10.0
2002 No. 1 11.6
2003 No. 6 9.4
2004 No. 2 9.6
2005 No. 6 8.9
2006 No. 3 8.0
2007 No. 2 8.6
2008 No. 5 8.5
2009 No. 31 7.0
2010 No. 67 5.7
2) You may notice an occasional unusual disparity in some of teams ranking for number of penalties per game and ranking for yardage per game. Keep in mind that this is obviously due to the number of yards assessed per penalty. The offensive penalties are usually for fewer yards (illegal motion, false start, etc) except for holding, and most importantly they do not usually result in loss of down. On the other hand, defensive penalties are usually for more yards (pass int., roughing, defensive holding, etc), and in most cases gives the offensive team a first down. These are just a couple of points to remember for the lack of correlation between number of penalties and total yardage rankings in the stats you will see.
D) With a couple of exceptions, the weaker teams (Duke, Wake Forest, and Virginia) appear to be flagged less often than the rest of the conference.
VII) Is it possible the tobacco belt team do indeed get penalized less often than those teams from outside of North Carolina? What are your thoughts?
As previously mentioned, the 1999 National Championship FSU team was the most penalized team not only in the ACC, but in the nation. Next, let's look at how FSU did in comparison to the rest of the country in the national rankings for average number of penalties per year and average yards penalized per game, from 2000 to 2010.
FSU'S NATIONAL RANKING FOR AVG # PENALTIES/GAME & AVERAGE YARDS PENALIZED/GAME PER YEAR
Year Avg#/Gm AvgYds/Gm
2000 No. 111 No. 113 Of 114 teams. Not including bowl game.
2001 No. 95 No. 91 Of 115 teams. Not including bowl game.
2002 No. 88 No. 91 Of 117 teams. Includes bowl game.
2003 No. 71 No. 86 Of 117 teams. Includes bowl game.
2004 No. 117 No. 117 Of 117 teams. Includes bowl game.
2005 No. 111 No. 111 Of 117 teams. Includes bowl game.
2006 No. 100 No. 84 Of 119 teams. Includes bowl game.
2007 No. 115 No. 109 Of 119 teams. Includes bowl game.
2008 No. 113 No. 114 Of 119 teams. Includes bowl game.
2009 No. 88 No. 97 Of 120 teams. Includes bowl game.
2010 No. 77 No. 88 Of 120 teams. Includes bowl game.
Now let's look at the numbers for FSU and the rest of the ACC (including University of Miami, Boston College and Virginia Tech) and Florida, in total average number of penalties per year, average number of penalties per game, total average yards penalized per year, and average yards penalized per game, for the 11 year period from 2000-2010.
FROM 2000 TO 2010-THE TOTAL AVERAGE NUMBER OF PENALTIES PER YEAR, THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF PENALTIES PER GAME, THE TOTAL AVERAGE YARDS PENALIZED PER YEAR, AND THE AVERAGE YARDS PENALIZED PER GAME, FOR THE 11 YEAR PERIOD.
TEAM # PENALTIES AVG # /GAME TOTAL YARDS AVG YDS/GAME
Bos Coll 70 (6) 6.4 (6) 575.9 (7) 52.4 (7)
Clemson 65.7 (9) 6.0 (9) 578.6 (6) 52.6 (6)
Duke 66.5 (8) 6.0 (8) 546.7 (10) 49.7 (10)
Florida St 87.3 (2) 7.9 (2) 763.7 (1) 69.4 (1)
Geo Tech 71.1 (4) 6.5 (4) 595.1 (4) 54.1 (4)
Maryland 64.1 (10) 5.8 (10) 544.9 (11) 49.5 (11)
Miami 87.7 (1) 8.0 (1) 748.8 (2) 68.1 (2)
No Car 70.1 (5) 6.4 (5) 583.5 (5) 53.0 (5)
NC State 79.8 (3) 7.3 (3) 658.7 (3) 59.9 (3)
Virginia 62.7 (11) 5.7 (11) 540.9 (12) 49.2 (12)
Virg Tech 67.3 (7) 6.1 (7) 574.1 (8) 52.2 (8)
W Forest 61.6 (12) 5.6 (12) 562.6 (9) 51.1 (9)
Florida 86.8 7.9 667.7 60.7
*(Number in parenthesis is ranking in ACC for the 11 year period from 2000 to 2010)
During the 2010 season, FSU's opponents received 31 first downs as a result of a penalties. This was second, barely, to Maryland's 32 first downs given to opponents via penalties. Conversly, FSU was only awarded 20 first downs as a result of penalties. Below are the number of first downs obtained and given by penalty for each ACC team as well as the University of Florida for 2010 and 2009. While this stat may not have much relevance on the subject we are discussing, I thought I would still share them with you.
FIRST DOWNS BY PENALTY FOR EACH TEAM AND THEIR OPPONENTS.
2010 2009
TEAM 1st Opp 1st Opp
Boston Coll 21 18 21 12
Clemson 25 25 13 25
Duke 13 15 16 10
Florida State 20 31 18 22
Georgia Tech 17 21 17 13
Maryland 24 32 11 17
Miami (FL) 18 20 11 22
N Carolina 28 5 14 22
NC State 17 17 29 13
Virginia 18 25 16 18
Virginia Tech 21 21 12 13
Wake Forest 16 15 22 10
Florida 17 20 14 21
So, does it appear to you that the ref's are out to get us? Some of these numbers may be hard to swallow and might give ammo and cause for alarm to those who like to cry conspiracy. But at the same time, we should keep in mind that despite consistently being among the national and ACC leaders in penalties and penalty yards for as long as I can remember, the Bobby Bowden led teams had one of the highest winning percentages in college football history. So what gives? Let's get some other opinions on the significance of penalties from some outsiders.
Back in 2009, Ed Gunther, who publishes The National Championship Issue (Perspectives On College Football), took a good hard look at penalties by analyzing 6,761 games from 2000 to 2008.
So let's look at what we've got so far. Again, we're looking at 2000-2008, which means 6,761 games. Two teams per game gives us 13,522 team-games, and if we're looking at just the most extreme cases of teams committing far more or far fewer penalties than they normally do, we end up with 725 team-games to look at. So again, we're dealing with the top 5% here. Another good thing is that we have every single D1-A team represented, averaging around 6 team-games each. Of those 725 games, 533 (nearly 75% of them) were instances in which a team was penalized more than their average, while just 172 of them were instances of a team penalized less than their average.
Earlier I wrote this:
Then there are others out there who believe that the ref's usually favor the home team, and the officials are quicker to throw the hanky against the visiting team.
Here is what Ed came up with on that subject.
One of the first places we can look for signs of irregularities is in home-field advantage. We know there is one in general, (this year it's hovering at about 65%), but is there one with penalties? Just for clarity's sake, the 725 games we're focusing on we'll call the outliers, and the others we'll call the averages.
Home / Away Penalties & Yards category games avg penalties avg pen yards more penalties more % Home (averages) 6,029 6.3 53.8 2,362 40.1% Away (averages) 6,059 6.6 54.6 2,855 48.5% Home (outliers) 356 9.3 87.9 243 49.2% Away (outliers) 326 9.9 85.7 238 48.2% Hmmm... it doesn't appear that there's any significant difference. The home team has a slight edge in the first few columns, but nothing irregular. Something notable is that in the average games, the home team usually takes less penalties, taking more than their visitor just 40.1% of the time. However, when we're looking at the outliers, the home team takes more penalties a higher percentage of the time, 49.2% to 48.2%. This could be due to the fact that in the average population there's more visiting team-games and in the outliers there's more home team-games, but the difference is pretty small. Overall, there doesn't seem to be much evidence here for the home team having a significant edge penalty-wise.
Regarding ranked teams, I wrote earlier:
Another popular opinion among the tin-foil hat wearers is that officials are more lenient and call less penalties on the weaker teams and the underdogs, especially when they are facing a ranked team or a heavy favorite.
Here are Ed's findings based off those 6,761 games.
Let's look at something else. What about any advantage given to the higher-ranked team?
Penalties & AP Rankings category All Games Average Games Outlier Games neither team ranked 5,596 5,286 310 same # of penalties 1,460 1,425 35 higher ranked, more penalties 3,372 3,157 215 higher more % 52.2% 51.9% 56.6% higher ranked, less penalties 3,088 2,923 165 higher less % 47.8% 48.1% 43.4% Well, if anything it seems that overall, the higher ranked team usually takes more penalties, and that's especially the case in the outliers. Interesting.
Ed's goal in writing Magical Yellow Flags: a Look at Penalties was:
We're simply going to be looking at the raw, inarguable stats - penalties that were called and penalty yards per game for the last nine seasons. Not how many penalties were called that shouldn't have been, not how many penalties the refs missed, not how much your team got screwed.
What conclusion did ED reach after compiling, sorting, and analyzing all this data?
And that's where I'm going to stop.
Why? For a lot of different reasons. First, I'm sure you noticed that in a way, this exercise is much like trying to prove a negative. We're looking for evidence of irregularities in penalties & games, but not finding any evidence of them isn't going to convince people that bias doesn't exist. We're not going to be able to prove they're not there no matter what we do. The two categories I did look at, home-field advantage and higher-ranked advantage, are the two places where I think most people believe we would be likely to find irregularities, if there were any. We could try other categories into infinity and still not be able to prove a bias doesn't exist. In addition, not finding bias in any particular category doesn't mean that it can't or won't be found in individual games. On the other hand though, good luck proving it.
With all that said, I fully believe that there are no conspiracies afoot to call games certain ways for certain teams, that the refs are not biased, and that the fix is not in in any way whatsoever. Honestly, that's just a bunch of junk people make up to make themselves feel better about losing. Have the SEC referees botched some high-profile calls this past month? Sure. But you know who probably feels worse about it than anyone? Those SEC referees.
Think about this realistically for a second. You don't get to the level they're at without having a huge amount of respect for the game in general. No matter what school they went to or which team they personally root for, I guarantee that every college referee has more respect for the game that overrides those personal ties by far. Do you set out in the morning intentionally trying to be bad at what you do? Probably not, and you probably wouldn't get far if you did. I'm pretty firm in my belief that refs give 100% every game and try to be as impartial and fair as possible, partly because it doesn't make sense for them to be otherwise.
Do they get a call wrong every now and then? Sure. But a lot of those can easily be avoided with the use of instant replay. Sure, some calls are subjective, like holding or interference. The referees have training and years of experience calling those plays - as long as they're consistent, I see no reason not to trust them and defer to their judgment in those cases. For situations like the Georgia-LSU celebration penalties, I think the refs are handcuffed by overbearing rules that are trying to damper down the spirit of competition.
But for the non-subjective determinations, like going out-of-bounds or the ball hitting the ground on an attempted shoe-string catch, use instant replay. Get a donor to give your school money for some LCD high-def TV's, put them in the booth, and use them. Talk to the networks and make them put cameras in more strategic locations so that you can give the guys in the booth the best angles to see the plays - shoot them down the sidelines and endzones, if nothing else. The college game gets it right by reviewing every play. (The NFL knows that would lengthen their games past the mandated 3 hours, so fairness has to take a back seat.) Do whatever it takes to get the call right. I don't want to hear any crap about the refs being human or bad calls being a part of the game. For subjective calls, fine - I can accept that. But with so much riding on games nowadays, the NCAA, conferences, and schools need to be doing all they can to make sure that the black & white calls are correct. Fans won't care if it adds an extra 15 minutes to the games, or if a booth review takes a while. Just Get. The Call. Right. They'll care a whole lot more if you get the call wrong, trust me. Those are things that people besides the refs can fix, so if anything you should be just as pissed at them for letting these things slide.
So where do all of these numbers and all of this ranting leave us? Well, the idea has been bandied about that we need a national refereeing corps that aren't affiliated with any one conferences. Would that help? Well, it would certainly help with the (I believe incorrect) perception that the refs call the games for certain teams. Sure - do it. Starting to fix some of the technological and non-subjective flaws would certainly help too. But for god's sake, can we stop with all the conspiracy bullshit? Until you've walked in the refs' shoes, how about cutting them a little slack. I'm sure a simple "thank you for the 99.9% of the calls that you get right" wouldn't hurt either.
OK, fair enough, Ed makes some excellent points about each teams fans perceived bias from the officials, instant replays, and the national refereeing corps, but what about the theory that committing penalties hurts your chances of winning.
In 2007, Matt Hinton at SMQ (Sunday Morning Quarterback), wrote an excellent 11-part series, with the finale named Stat Relevance Watch: Wrap-up and Analysis. He took the NCAA's rankings of 13 major statistical categories and ranked them according to importance and relevance of winning. He ranked them by record, by AP ranking, for the ACC Conference, the Big East, the Big Ten, the Big XII, the Pac-Ten, the SEC, for Non-Conference games, and for Bowl Games. While his sample size consisted of a limited time frame, he consistently found that the statistical categories in order of relevance to winning are as follows:
Rank Category Win % 1. Yards Per Pass .785 (241-66) 2. Total Offense .740 (231-81) 3. 3rd Down Efficiency .709 (212-87) 4. Turnover Margin .681 (156-73) 5. Rush Offense .678 (213-101) 6. First to Score .674 (213-103) 7. Yards Per Carry .673 (206-100) 8. Time of Possession .624 (179-108) 9. Pass Offense .556 (173-138) 10. Home Team .539 (126-108) 11. Fewest Penalty Yards .405 (119-175) The only exceptions were 'First to Score,' which usually resulted in a correlation somewhere in the high sixties, and 'Fewest Penalty Yards,' which never showed the slightest indication of being important to victory. The complete irrelevance of penalty yardage again comes with the caveat that penalties are situational killers ... but cumulatively, there's no reason whatsoever to sweat a lot of penalties. It's when flags are thrown, not how many. The debate over the explanation has already begun elsewhere, centering on the idea that penalties are most closely linked to time of possession (offenses draw more flags than defenses), which is correlated to victory. The numbers are iffy on that, though, and SMQ is skeptical because he considers time of possession itself largely an ancillary indicator.
While the list seems counter to every time honored football belief (when was the last time you heard a commentator say "Well, I think the team with the most yards per pass will win this one Lee"), the statistical accuracy cannot be challenged.
In looking at the list, one statistic stands out in particular – Penalty Yards. In every other single statistic, the team possessing the more favorable side of the equation was more likely than not to have won the game. For Penalty Yards however, in every single conference the team with the greater number of penalty yards was more likely than not to have won the game.
In other words, if you were an alien, and arrived on earth to be introduced to college football for the first time, in looking at the statistics on what it took to win you would be encouraged to commit as many penalty yards as possible, or at least more than your opponent.
In fact, the average winning percentage of teams committing fewer penalties is 40.5%. If you "flip" this average percentage, you find that teams committing more penalties won on the order of nearly 60% of the time, making the commission of more penalty yards seemingly more important to winning than having a greater number of passing yards than your opponent or even having the home field advantage.
"Lee, I think the team committing the most penalties will win this game today."
My hypothesis in an earlier post that the team committing more penalties won more often was because the team with a longer time of possession had more opportunities to commit minor offensive penalties. These offensive penalties, in turn, were less harmful than defensive penalties to overall success, as while an offensive penalty rarely ever totally ruin a drive, defensive penalties more often than not extend drives, often disastrously.From http://sauriansagacity.blogspot.com/2007/02/penalty-mystery.html
Last winter, I found over and over again, in game after game, conference after conference, that penalty yardage had no correlation whatsoever with winning in games between two BCS conference teams, when every other stat category - even which team was at home and which team scored first - showed at least some non-trivial, positive correlation to victory. With penalties, in fact, the correlation was slightly negative: on a macro level, the twenty most penalized teams had a better aggregate record than the twenty least penalized teams, while on a game-by-game level, the team that was penalized more than its opponent had a slightly higher winning percentage.
Some mild gnashing of teeth occurred in the face of such counter-intuitive data, or, in Lou Holtz's case, some impressive fits of slobber in defense of an ancient coaching point. Are more penalized teams more aggressive? Are refs subconsciously "leveling the field" by throwing more flags against better teams? Do teams that hold the ball longer on offense commit more penalties, since most penalties are called against the offense?
Some interesting ideas are thrown around about why the penalties are called, but the point that penalties are fairly irrelevant in college football, at least as far as winning, still stands tall.
In his first year as head coach, Jimbo Fisher and his staff managed to bring down the number of penalties and yards to a level that had not been been seen since 2003, and prior to that in 1995. He has demanded discipline, accountability, and maturity from his players, and it showed in the number of penalties. No coach ever wants to see his players commit fouls on defense, since it gives opposing offense more opportunities to get into the end-zone and moves them closer to the goal line. Also, no coach ever want to see his players commit self inflicted fouls on offense, since they could potentially be drive-killing penalties, or even worse, they could negate a touchdown, like the 47-yard Ponder to Reed touchdown that was nullified against NC State.
However, all of the documentation presented today suggest that the old saying that "penalties will get you beat" may not be as accurate as once thought. You want your players to be as tough, physical, and aggressive as possible, but we should not get too upset when a player commits a penalty, especially if it is a effort type penalty such as a player attempting to make an extra block, and as long as they are making good decisions.
Finally, in 2006 the most penalized team in the Nation was Florida, who went on to win the National Championship. I already mentioned that FSU was the most penalized team during the 1999 National Championship run. Here is a breakdown of the two teams that played in every National Championship Game starting in 2000, along with their NCAA national ranking for average number of penalties per game and their ranking for average yards penalized per game.
YEAR TEAM Rank#/Yds vs TEAM Rank#/Yds
2000 Oklahoma 75 / 79 FSU 111 / 113
2001 Miami 112 / 114 Nebraska 22 / 42
2002 Miami 113 / 114 Ohio State 20 / 10
2003 LSU 82 / 73 Oklahoma 39 / 26
2004 USC 27 / 27 Oklahoma 62 / 68
2005 Texas 88 / 88 USC 70 / 84
2006 Florida 118 / 109 Ohio State 91 / 36
2007 LSU 117 / 97 Ohio State 25 / 14
2008 Florida 105 / 95 Oklahoma 105 / 104
2009 Alabama 17 / 14 Texas 84 / 86
2010 Auburn 46 / 68 Oregon 101 / 101
Year in an year out the majority of the teams with the least amount of penalties have losing records. Many coaches point to penalties as the reason for a loss and something the team must eliminate and overcome, however the stats shown in this story paint a different story, that penalties may not really determine the teams level of success.
The truth we spoke of at the start of this story, that we were seeking, may indeed be that the most penalized teams are often times the best teams.
While penalties should always be avoided at all cost, and while there is no such thing as a good penalty, penalties may not necessarily be such a bad thing after all.
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Great peace first off. I dont get all the numbers but I did read it. Well here is my point.
A: The better teams get more penalties prob because its more important for the refs to call it right. What ref is going to care about Army vs Tulane. Its a game for fun but you have FSU vs Clemson, Neb vs Texas Ranked teams are looked at more because the games are more high profile.
2: penalties are negative yards. If you only get 300 ypg and rack up 80 yards with penalties then you just got 220 ypg. Thats a big shot in the foot. how many games are you going to win with 220 yards. When you throw a high powered offence in there that gets 350+ then its not as big of a deal unless you are going agents another high powered offence.
D: most of FSU penalties I believe were on Def. I feel that Def penalties are not as hard to overcome than Offences ones. giving up 10 yards and a first down you still have a chance to stop the other team or make them kick a field goal. However its a pain to go 2nd and 7 and 3rd and 5 add 10 yards and that almost makes you have to punt or go for the field goal. in most big games teams might win with a feild goal but you can win if they are getting TD and all you can get is a FG. FSU vs UF 2009.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
by Desman on Mar 2, 2011 5:25 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Point A is an excellent one
Never thought of that.
Thanks Des, all good points.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
Frank
Good job, hell of an article. Will re-read it when I have time but the stats are interesting. One thought I had (and I’m not sure it isn’t already buried in there somewhere, maybe I missed it) – but on the face of it, underdogs getting penalized equally might make it seem fair, but I wonder if underdogs not getting penalized more isn’t odd in itself. A team that’s getting blown out or is getting manhandled should probably get called more for holding and the like, yes? Especially when they start getting desperate, angry and stupid?
That stat just seems odd to me. Losing teams seem like they should commit more penalties. I dunno, though.
"Yes, we won a national championship." — Fisher on if he had ever had a top ranked class before.
I would think that would be the case, but there is no way to tell except going over the game logs. I think you especially see personal foul penalties once your team fall behind and frustration sets in.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
Many years after we beat Nebraska there to put FSU on the map
I personally spoke to one of the refs from the split crew that officiated the game. The crew was, according to him, half helping Nebraska and half FSU. He (FSU guy) said Nebraska’s last penalty-aided drive (where they almost scored to win) was a joke. The refs were bickering every time they conferred. I remember watching the game on TV. I think there were two pass interference calls on NU’s final drive. (Not sure.) Based on my conversation, I’m convinced refs still bring biases. I’m glad the split crew thing is dead. Sounds good, bad idea.
Dogs bark in the night but the caravan moves on.
Like you said, split crews sounded good, but I also thought it was not a good idea.
I also think, without any proof to back it up, just my perception, that when playing a OOC game, the officials from the other conference calling the game generally go above and beyond giving the team not from their conference an extra benefit of doubt.
For example this last FSU vs UF game, as a Nole I have no problem with the game was called, but if I was a Gator, I might think there a couple of questionable calls.
Again, I have no problem with the way the Ref’s called that game. I also somehow remember how in some games in that rivalry, the ACC ref’s always seem to somehow give the Gators questionable calls, but of course they were usually kicking our asses and it only gave me a reason to bitch.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
That's why I hope, one day in my lifetime, that we see this adopted.
Well, the idea has been bandied about that we need a national refereeing corps that aren’t affiliated with any one conferences. Would that help? Well, it would certainly help with the (I believe incorrect) perception that the refs call the games for certain teams.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
He was going to post the Ron Cherry stats , but I am pretty someone was “giving him the business” ., so he didn’t.
by PaceNole on Mar 2, 2011 7:55 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
"It's when flags are thrown, not how many"
This seems to be a key part that’s hard to analyze statistically.
Thanks Frank, up at 4:00 AM with your tin foil hat on I presume?
Florida State 45 Miami 17
Florida State 31 Florida 7
State Champions
ACC Atlantic Division Champions
Exactly, at what point of the game the flag is thrown is crucial.
And yes I wore my tin foil hat the whole time I was writing this, and I made my GF also wear one too.
.

>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
Yes and NO
When we move before the snap; it’s on us. When LJ, and G5 lays the wood on some poor sap sucker; its on Ron Cherry.
After 18 years as a ref
for Soccer which is a game with a start and finish – no time outs – I can tell you that those Refs are attempting to get it right with every call. Once the whistle blows to begin the game, if you stop to analyze each situation before you make the call, the game gets away and everyone has a very bad day. Training and experience take over quickly and the calls are made evenly and to the best of that Ref’s ability. Each Ref is evaluated on the calls made during the game and the Ref wants to get it right so they can move up to more and better matches.
Don’t like the Ref calls, get off the bench, get the training and put on a striped shirt and get in the game. You’ll see.
after 30 years as a human
I can say no one would ever be dishonest. My point is, don’t assume your dedication and integrity is shared by everyone. We know there are cheaters out there, and some of them are the ones throwing the flags. The guys wearing the tin hats are not the naive ones here.
So once again, Jones, what was briefly yours is now mine.
College soccer refs are way more biased
Each team has its own ref in many conferences. In our conference last year 87% of the penalties were award to (against) the home (visiting) team. One school that plays a really physical game had a penalty assessed against it in every away game, but one and had no penalties assessed against it at home.
well what did they say
Before that basketball official got indicted? There is no evidence he is cheating? The fact is, its hard to overcome a reputation, and the Florida schools all have had one. The bias isn’t sinister, but it exists, just like a teacher when a boisterous student fighting with a good one, who is going to the office?
One point beyond the scope above is that when someone wants to cheat its not obvious. They make penalty numbers even up, like a flag on 3rd and long that gets declined. Or they call a drive killing hold in the early third quarter while you are filling your beer. When you see obvious bad calls, its usually incompetence. The ACC has given us several calls we didn’t deserve. Now that final Texas v Nebraska game is a whole ’nother story.
So once again, Jones, what was briefly yours is now mine.
in fairness, our defense made some pretty dumb hits
If you constantly make mistakes, you draw attention to yourself. In my job one of the things I have to do is double check people’s work. The ones who never make mistake still get checked, but the ones who make a lot of mistakes get checked more closely.
In other words, “bias” against FSU exists and it is our own fault. It is not cheating, it’s paying attention to people who you know are more likely to make mistakes.
Also, so much of this was on the coaches.
I didn’t see anybody mention the special teams penalties. During a substantial part of the Bowden era (pre and post the great 14), we got flagged at an incredible rate on punt returns. I’m sure it wasn’t, but it seemed like almost 50% of the time. I never ever heard BB or his coaches say, “We need to do a better job of teaching them how to avoid penalties.”
Not only was the teaching not there, but our coaches tolerated penalties, even the stupid ones, in situations where other coaches would have read the player involved the riot act.
It always seemed to me that in the Dynasty Years we were good for one or two late hits or out of bounds hits per game.
Always stupid penalties.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
I agree with most of your points except this one.
They make penalty numbers even up, like a flag on 3rd and long that gets declined. Or they call a drive killing hold in the early third quarter while you are filling your beer.
On most plays the flag is thrown before the play is over. There is no way for the official to know what the outcome of the play is going to be.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
But I do agree with your next sentence about incompetence, and it's not just limited to the ACC.
..


>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
Can't deny the #'s
but it just seems counter-intuitive, especially if you’re a fan of other sports. In both basketball and hockey, it usually turns out that the team dominating play ends up forcing the other team to commit penalties and fouls to make up for their lack of talent defensively. A defenseman in hockey is going to grab or interfere with the speedy forward with more skill to keep him from getting around him, and he’ll get called for it more and more the slower he is and the more obvious he’s forced to be.
That the slow O-lineman who’s getting beat around the edge or the corner that can’t react to the WR coming out of his cut fast enough isn’t committing these fouls or being called for them is befuddling to me.
Bucs fans know that O-lineman by the name Kenyatta Walker
Florida State 45 Miami 17
Florida State 31 Florida 7
State Champions
ACC Atlantic Division Champions
by SeminoleMike on Mar 2, 2011 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
While we are seeing the game from a Seminole perspective, some of the those holding non-calls this year were amazing.
Sometimes they were downright tackles by the other teams offensive line.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
I think it's all about the athletes...
If you a a school with second-tier athletes, you simply HAVE to stress discipline and technique. It’s your only chance to compete, to out-technique the other team. While good schools also teach technique, you can’t 100% take away the ability of unique, elite atheletes to improvise. If you have an dominant DE you might let him try to time the snap count, because at the end of the year it’s a net win if he’s got 11 sacks and 4 off sides. If you’ve got an average DE jumping off sides, you’d never let him get off sides penalties because you’d bench him rather than let him have 3 sacks and 4 offsides.
Also, the elite kind of athletes the best teams recruit THINK they can make some of the plays that turn into penalties. It’s part of what makes them such great athletes.
It isn’t penalties, but look at Greg Reid’s fumbles, which I think are analagous to the penalty situation. Reid fumbles punt returns more than he should, in part because he believes he can take any given punt for a touchdown. We allow Reid to continue to return punts anyway, because Reid is essentially right – the coaches know he CAN take any given punt for a touchdown. I think it’s just a cost/benefit analysis, and when you have elite athletes the benefits of taking chances outweigh the cost. When you have average athletes, it doesn’t.
That said, I think there is NO excuse for “dumb” penalties. Getting called for hitting a guy with one foot out of bounds is ok. Giving a guy a shove three steps out of bounds should earn you a seat on the bench.
Good post Lou, thanks for contributing.
Even dumber is knocking the opposing player into the bench 15 feet out of bounds and mugging for the camera (even if it was not called, IIRC).
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
I still want to see a replay of the hit in the Maryland game
In the first half, I think it was Reid that made a big hit on a MD receiver and got called for a penalty that negated a turnover. I was at the stadium and the hit looked clean to me (but maybe I was wearing FSU-colored glasses) Does anyone have video on that hit?
There is an entire post with video on this
Check out The Final Word on the Greg Reid Hit
I think the conclusion was that the rule’s “When in question, it is a foul” clause controlled
Wow
Thx. How did I miss this? I was looking for exactly this thread after the game and I practically live on this site!
Process vs Process Saban vs Fisher
I was curious to see the impact of JF had in penalties and the change Saban had at Alabama.
I included the one previous year before they took over as head coaches respectively.
Alabama nat rank pen per game yrds per game total year record
2010 24 5.08 37.69 490 10-3
2009 17 4.93 42.71 598 14-0
2008 5 4.07 37.14 520 12-2
2007 5 4.54 34.85 453 7-6
2006 70 6.00 42.85 557 6-7
FSU
2009 88 6.92 62.54 813 7-6
2010 77 6.29 57.71 808 9-4
NS saw a huge increase in year with Mike Shula’s troops. However, we had a minimal increase.
IMO, from sitting in the stands. We looked more disciplined and had less silly/non-agressive penalties.
I'm interpreting this
NS saw a huge increase in year with Mike Shula’s troops. However, we had a minimal increase.
as you meaning a decrease in the ranking number for number of penalties per game, correct?
Rankings aside, while a decrease from 88 to 77 total penalties for FSU may not seem like much, as I wrote in the story above, it is the lowest it has been since 2003, and prior to that 1995. For as long as I care to remember, FSU has usually hovered around the 90’s in # of penalties per year, many times in going into triple digits, and sometimes dipping in the high 80’s during the dynasty years.
Here are the total # of penalties per year during the Bowden era, not already posted in the story starting with 1999.
1999-109
1998-117
1997-113
1996-94
1995-76
1994-85
1993-102
1992-89
1991-89
1990-89
1989-89
1988-93
1987-78
1986-81
1985-79
1984-89
1983-73
1982-70
1981-56
1980-49
1979-63
1978-53
1977-58
1976-40
Please consider that many of the stats from the older years did not include bowl game and they played 2 less regular season games.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
Penalties to Winning
There are just too many variable to those to make any solid correlation, IMO. I can see that you put a lot of work into this, but i think it just too difficult to make any good conclusions.
For example there are so many different types of penalties and more importantly situations in which those different types occur. A false start on 1st and 10 is not the same as a false start on 3rd and 1, just the same way a defensive holding on 1st and 10 (basically you give up 5 yards – no big deal) is not the same as defensive holding on 3rd and 15 or 20 (automatic 1st down). Even worse there are some good penalties, especially in college. If a corner gets absolutely burned, its “good” for him to reach out a trip the WR as he runs by and just give up 15 yards instead of a TD.
I think what burns most FSU fans, me in particular, are the 1) Phantom calls at crucial times that seem to go against us. Like in 2009 vs BC, their WR stumbles and ball is overthrown by about 10 yards and Williams gets called for PI, late in the 4th. Next play they pop a 20 yard TD run and we lose. and 2) the “personal foul” calls that look oh so similar to good clean / strong hits, like G5 vs Maryland RB and Harris returns for TD, that come at bad times.
The main point I was trying to make is that more often than not, the elite teams are the teams with the most penalties, and the majority of the teams with the fewest penalties usually have losing records.
This can be proven by the last set of numbers in the story.
64% or 14 of the 22 teams that have played for the national championship since 2000, where among the most penalized teams in the country, using 70 penalties per year as the low end figure.
It goes against all logic, but the stats don’t lie.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
great post
I think the data support several suspicions, and refute others:
A) fewer penalties do not automatically lead to more wins. Anecdotally, I remember the magnificent defensive goalline stand against Kansas with so many offsides calls – we did deserve those penalties, but each time we were penalized, we got stronger and louder and more aggressive, and Kansas got more frightened.
2) we probably get penalized a lot because of our attacking defense, and our young players in a complex offense. Not good, but not fatal to us in the dynasty, or to UF or UM at their peaks.
d) Look at Saban’s Alabama – process can cut down on penalties, even with elite athletes.
Garnet) Officials who don’t realize how talented elite teams are, may be more likely to misread the evidence of their eyes. When our (and UF’s and UM’s) DBs and receivers really are that good, officials might not be able to accept the level of skill they saw. The worst call ever was Doug Moseley of the SEC callng incomplete on the Lane Fenner catch against UF in 1966; it wasn’t a penalty – it was cognitive dissonance – a case of “I can’t believe what I just saw!”
That goal line stand against Kansas in the kickoff classic in the Meadowlands was indeed a thing of beauty, and your other points are valid.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
Frank,
great work. I definitely think officiating keeps games closer. How can you see an FSU player obliberate a kid from Wake and not think he perhaps did helmet-to-helmet.
'11: Minimum Goal: 9-3 Regular Season. Given FSU's non-con slate, don't care who the 9 are.
'10: 7th in offense, 41st in defense. Division Champions. 10-4. (6-3)
'09: 8th in offense, 88th in defense. 7-6 (4-4)
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I WAS going to respond with a thoughtful & intelligent response to the available data....
…But I am currently bleeding from my eyes, ears, and nose—so I will simply curl up in the fetal position & suck my thumb for the remainder of the day.
#Thanks.
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by DRusso97 on Mar 2, 2011 4:46 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I have to give some credence to announcers seemlingly making the Noles lookk bad at times
I can tell you right off the bat just go to youtube and look at the hit that took Lattimore out of the Bowl game against us. One of the cleanest, hardest hits I have seen in a long time. No flags. But instantly, and I forget who the announcer was, that the play was over he started saiyng he wasnt sure if it was clean and it looked like it might have been dirty. As soon as the slo—mo replay showed a hard clean hit did he go oh no that one was clean. But the instant reaction wasnt that it was clean. the words spoken immediately were ones of already questioning the hit.
A Seminole warrior killed in battle is a legend remembered. A Gator lost in battle becomes a pair of boots and a belt.
From my perspective, it always seems the announcers jump to conclusions against us as you and Bud pointed out.
I guess they are going with the “if it’s too hard, it was probably illegal.”
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
TN staff:
they all look the same.
FSU - 2011 recruiting national champions - sponsored by processed cafe cubano
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Mar 4, 2011 5:18 AM EST up reply actions
Just like your testes. I don't understand why you gave them different names.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
If you're going to play that card, play it right.
DKN is a teste. Fantana named him.
FSU - 2011 recruiting national champions - sponsored by processed cafe cubano
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Mar 4, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
Off vs. Def
When coaches shrug off penalties because of “aggressiveness,” I believe they are talking about defensive penalties. I’ve never met a coach that shrugs off a false start penalty. But coaches routinely shrug off defensive offside penalties (except in short yardage type situations).
If you give up 5 yards on defense on 1st down, all you’ve done is give the opposing offense a 1st down with 5 to go. Not a positive, but hardly daunting within the perspective of the drive as a whole. For an offense, penalties are “drive-killers.” 1st and 15, 1st and 20, 1st and 25 – often an offense’s drive is shot.
If an offense succeeds on just one series, the defense has not lost the drive. If the offense fails on just one series, the defense has won the drive. So defenses can lose a battle but still win the war, while offenses must win every battle to win the war. The weight of penalties falls much heavier on offenses, I think, so maybe the question to be asked is how many offensive penalties are being called.
I disagree
If you look at the quotes in the post, clearly defensive penalties are worse. Offensive penalties are more common, but they usually result in a replay of the down. This is much better than a defensive penalty (often for 10 yards or more) that hands the offense a new set of downs. If offensive holding resulted in a loss of the down then things would be different.
I probably should have written 2 sentences when I wrote this.
The perception also seemed to be that our coaching staff didn’t really appear too concerned, as the players were simply following the coaches orders by playing aggressively and up until the echo of the whistle.
What I meant was that from my perspective, the coaches never seemed to dwell on the total number of penalties too much. Sure they talked about how penalties killed us if we lost, but never on the reason why we were always one of the most penalized teams in the country year in and year out.
I agree with you on the aggressiveness being mostly on the defensive side of the ball. I should have worded it better.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
Interesting post, Frank
I think it boils down to the Matt Hinton chart indicating the negative correlation between fewest penalties and winning. The obvious explanation (and the one offered above) is not that causing more penalties leads to winning, but, rather, that most penalties are offensive penalties and therefore the number of penalties is highly correlated with time of possession which is itself highly correlated with winning.
This only indicates to me, however, that you can’t analyze the effects on winning by using simple penalty counts without considering time of possession and separating offensive penalties from defensive penalties.
That is exactly the point the Gator blogger was trying to make in his debate with SMQ (Hinton) in the 3 post at the end of this comment, which you are welcomed to read.
I only posted part of one post he made because he shared some of the same conclusions that I reached, he had already written it, and it had the imaginary exchange between commentators.
Just to be clear, and I’m sorry I didn’t make it clearer and that you mistook my premise, but no one (including myself) is claiming "that causing more penalties leads to winning."
My main point was that many, if not the majority, of the most penalized teams are what we would call the "elite," and that the majority of the least penalized team are usually not considered "the elite" and often have losing records. That is also the point of one of the Gator’s post, although it’s a few years old.
For example and just for fun, here are this years least penalized teams. How many would you consider elite?
1 Wisconsin
2 Navy
3 Penn St.
4 Army
5 Indiana
6 Tulsa
7 Air Force
7 Notre Dame
9 Colorado St.
9 Northern Ill.
11 Duke
Here is the 2009 list.
1 Navy
2 Connecticut
3 UCF
4 Penn St.
5 Iowa
5 Fresno St.
7 Kentucky
8 Houston
9 Western Mich.
10 Michigan
10 Tulsa
You could go through the archives and you will find that this is usually the case year in and year out.
http://sauriansagacity.blogspot.com/2007/01/penalties-nearly-irrelevant.html
http://sauriansagacity.blogspot.com/2007/02/penalties-to-success.html
http://sauriansagacity.blogspot.com/2007/09/penalty-mystery-perhaps-explained.html
I think he did make some valid points that could be considered, but I really didn’t want to get into his analysis because the length of this story and the amount of stats I included were already more than many of our readers are accustomed to and willing to read.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
Frank, thanks for your effort putting all of this together
Well, after all of that, one thing stands out to me. The ACC’s only consistently top team over the last few years, Virginia Tech, plays a fairly penalty free style of football and this appears to help them stay consistently good.
Correct, very good catch. They are the exception to the general rule I was trying to apply.
From the 11 year average (2000-2010) table, they were in the lower half of the most penalized teams, coming in 7th (out of the 12) in # of penalties and 8th in yards penalized.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
Clemson's #'s are also very good in # of penalties (9th), but less so in yardage (6th), but they have not had the success of VT.
What that means to me is they commit fewer penalties, but when they do they are of the major variety.
>------::----::------->Spearing 'em and Scalping 'em like it's 1999
I'm not so sure this Jimbo fella is the right man for the job.
FSU: "Where The Elite Become Champions"
Wake, during their good years?
I noticed that Wake appears to have the best penalty statistics over the decade. Frank, from your data how did they do during their run of 3 or so years where they fielded very competitive teams?

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