FanPost

Inside the numbers (a trial run). 1st half of the spring game. Gold Offense vs. Garnet Defense.

This is the trial run of a spreadsheet set up to take play-by-play data and perform a number of situational and player based analyses.  This is not meant to be a composite rating analysis as there are already excellent systems in place for that in FEI and S & P.  What this will hopefully provide is a detailed look at some important factors that relate to offensive and defensive success.  The actual numbers here are not at all indicative of the 2011 team, but do give a pretty good description of the game and will be interesting to apply for the games that count.  To zoom in on the graphics, click on the image.

This analysis was done for the 1st half of the spring game and what's shown here is the Gold offense and Garnet defense.  I didn't see the need to analyze the entire game as, once again, the numbers are basically meaningless for a split squad scrimmage.  And it was actually getting somewhat boring.

In this first graphic you'll see an overall summary.  For success rate I used the S & P formula; 50% of necessary yardage on 1st down, 70% on 2nd and 100% on 3rd.  There is also a break down of standard vs. non-standard downs to track how well they perform when ahead of and behind the chains.

Goldoffense1sthalfsumma_medium

This is a fairly straight forward breakdown of each 1st half possession.  The points portion is intended to approximate the points that should have been scored based on scoring opportunities (somewhat arbitrarily chosen as inside the 35 yard line) and distribute the credit for those points appropriately.  This metric is certainly debatable, but I wanted to separate the "short-field" scores from the sustained drives.  I'm giving the defense/special teams credit for setting the offense up anywhere better than their own 40.  "Points Available" is based on where a drive ends; 30-35 = 1, 25-29 = 2, and so on.  The simplest way to explain the allocation is by example:  on the 7th possession the Gold offense started at their own 43 and scored.  That gives 7 available for moving inside the 5 and they were given 3 FP advantage yards.  So, the offense gets credit for 57/60 of the 7 points.  Again, this is only meant to approximate the true "scoring offense".

Golddrives_medium

 

Here's a breakdown by offensive formation, personnel based only (i.e. not where they actually line up, as that varies too significantly to track)

Goldoffense1sthalfforma_medium

 

A break down of each skill player's contributions.  For QB/WR success rates drops are counted against the WR, not the QB and sacks count against the passing game.

Goldoffense1sthalfplaye_medium

 

A break down of the defensive formations used, again based on personnel, not alignment.

Garnetdefense1sthalffor_medium

 

Here's the part I'm probably most interested in.  The number of snaps each DL takes at each position is tracked.  The guy that gets the most at each position is automatically assigned to "1st string" and the second most "2nd string".  The 1st string and 2nd string are evaluated as units.  Every possible combination of the two-deep is then evaluated to determine the most frequent unit aside from all one's and all two's.  Of course, in the first half only four guys played.  So, pretty boring here, but should be very interesting to look at for the real games.

Garnetdefense1sthalfsna_medium

 

Garnetdefense1sthalfdll_medium

Fanposts are a section for the fans and do NOT reflect the views of Tomahawk Nation.